2025-26 MLB free company, commerce grades: Offseason evaluation

It is sizzling range season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is formally right here, and we have now you lined with grades and evaluation for each main signing and commerce this winter.

Whether or not it is a big-money free agent signing that modifications the course of your staff’s future or a blockbuster commerce, we’ll weigh in with what all of it means for subsequent season and past.

ESPN MLB consultants Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will consider every transfer because it occurs, so observe alongside right here — this story will proceed to be up to date. Examine again in for the freshest evaluation by the beginning of spring coaching.

Associated hyperlinks: Tracker | High 50 free brokers | Fantasy spin

Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien

Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo

Mets grade: C+

One-for-one swaps of high quality veterans are uncommon sufficient as of late that when one lands, and individuals are aware of each gamers, the label “blockbuster” begins to get thrown round in a approach that may make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for profession Met Nimmo, is attention-grabbing. It’s also a commerce involving two post-30 gamers carrying a number of seasons of expensive contracts. Lackluster could be a greater description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Commerce Values illustrate properly the underwater contracts concerned.

For the Mets, it is essential to underscore the truth that Semien is 35 years previous. Although he challenged for AL MVP throughout Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to occur to center infielders together with his increasing chronology. Over the previous two seasons, his bat has been slightly below league common — and whereas there may be loads of worth in being roughly common, it is nonetheless a precarious baseline for a participant on the draw back of his profession. His offensive forecast is not nearly as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed common at second base, Jeff McNeil, who would possibly nonetheless get loads of run at different positions.

That stated, Semien is a a lot better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second profession Gold Glove, an honor backed up by constantly sturdy fielding metrics which have marked his play on the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Although Semien’s contract includes a greater common annual worth than Nimmo ($25 million by way of the luxurious tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it is of shorter length and the transfer will reduce into New York’s appreciable longer-term obligations.

One factor that’s head-scratching right here: The Mets are fairly deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry significantly extra upside than Semien at this level.

Rangers grade: C+

In the event you ignore positional changes, Nimmo is a greater hitter than Semien and ought to be a substantial improve for Texas within the outfield in contrast with what the Rangers had been getting from the just lately non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He isn’t nearly as good a defender as Garcia, particularly in arm energy and, the truth is, is likelier to play in left in Texas relatively than Garcia’s previous spot in proper. As talked about, Semien was a Gold Glover at his place and so now, of their effort to remake an offense that wanted an overhaul, you are concerned that the Rangers are placing a dent of their protection.

We’ll see how that shakes out because the offseason unfolds, however for now, we will concentrate on Nimmo’s bat and the likelihood that his numbers might get a bump from the change in venues. He is sometimes hit higher on the highway than at pitcher-friendly Citi Subject, and Globe Life Subject, whereas surprisingly stingy general final season, has sometimes been a strong place to hit for left-handed batters.

The mission in Texas is obvious. It is about not simply enhancing the offensive manufacturing but additionally pursuing that purpose by shifting the main target of the assault. Nimmo’s energy bat is a slim improve on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. However Nimmo is a a lot better hitter for common than each, and he has the very best plate self-discipline of the trio. These are each traits the Rangers’ offense very a lot wanted.

Nimmo’s contract is an issue, but it surely’s extra of a longer-term challenge than it is going to be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million lower than Semien. Texas is trying to reshuffle whereas reigning within the spending, and that is the sort of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can fear about the actual draw back of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they will hope that shifting to a brand new vista for the primary time will enhance Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier beneath the place they have been throughout his Mets prime. — Bradford Doolittle

Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward

Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez

Orioles grade: D

The primary main commerce of final offseason got here on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas Metropolis for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier begin. Given the comparatively tepid nature of this yr’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are enjoyable.

Alas, though it was straightforward to grasp the reasoning for either side within the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I am undecided I get this one a lot from the Orioles aspect. The caveat is that perhaps Baltimore’s brass, which clearly is aware of much more about Rodriguez than I do, has good purpose to suppose that Grey-Rod (simply made that one up) just isn’t prone to stay as much as his appreciable pre-MLB hype.

I do not wish to get too actuarial about this stuff, however you sort of must be on this case as a result of Ward shall be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has 4 seasons of staff management left on his service time clock. Thus, even when Rodriguez is prone to want an adjustment interval this season as he makes an attempt to come back again from the accidents that value him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had loads of time to let that play out.

Ward turns 32 subsequent month, probably placing him on the outer rim of his profession prime. He has been an honest participant — a mean of three.0 bWAR over the previous 4 years — however his talent set is slender. Ward has been a fixture in left area the previous couple of seasons and has proven diminishment each on protection and on the bases. He is somebody you purchase for his bat.

On that entrance, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, however his underlying Statcast-generated anticipated numbers counsel he overachieved in that space a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate energy to the other area, however his energy sport remains to be prone to see a destructive affect from the transfer to Camden Yards. He is affected person on the plate to the purpose of occasional passivity, as he is virtually at all times looking a pitch to drive, even when which means taking a few strikes.

That is not a nasty factor, however that strategy, mixed with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a constantly plummeting common: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He is a take-and-rake man who does not generate sufficient worry from pitchers to maintain them out of the zone, which could supercharge his stroll fee sufficient to deliver his OBP as much as a suitable stage, which it will not be given the batting common development.

And all of this might be high-quality for one yr of a productive hitter prone to earn $12-14 million by the arbitration course of. However at the price of 4 years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I am not seeing it.

Angels grade: A-

That is about upside for an Angels employees determined for a real No. 1 starter. To anticipate Rodriguez to fill that want in 2026 is so much, and maybe, given his sturdiness points, he won’t ever get there. His massive league outcomes (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 begins in 2023 and 2024) are strong however nothing particular. The attract of Rodriguez stays the mixture of excessive ceiling and controllable seasons.

And the ceiling may be very excessive. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the sport’s high pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him practically as excessive in 2023. The mere chance of Grey-Rod (did it once more) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an thrilling notion for followers in Anaheim.

Whether or not or not there may be a lot of a chance of Rodriguez getting there may be virtually inappropriate. I might really feel higher about this if he have been headed to a corporation with a greater observe file of turning round underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, however perhaps the Angels could make some strides on this space.

The deal opens up a gap within the outfield for the Angels with no apparent plug-in answer from the group. However discovering a free agent substitute who approximates or exceeds Ward’s manufacturing should not break the financial institution. This is a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.

The potential of that sort of improve and perhaps sometime a totally realized Grey-Rod, all for the low-low value of 1 season of Taylor Ward? Signal me up. — Doolittle

The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-

If there was an award without spending a dime agent prediction most to probably come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it is hardly a shock that that is the primary important signing of the offseason (pending a bodily). As quickly because the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Sport 7 of the ALCS, the entrance workplace made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its high precedence. Such public vocalizations at that stage are uncommon — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.

It is easy to grasp why they needed Naylor again. The Mariners have been trying to find a long-term answer at first base for, oh, occurring 20 years — actually, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a pair strong seasons in 2021 and 2022, however since 2005 solely the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a decrease OPS than Seattle’s.

Naylor, in the meantime, came visiting on the commerce deadline from Arizona and offered an enormous spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with 9 dwelling runs and 33 RBIs in 54 video games, good for two.2 WAR. Together with his time with the Diamondbacks, he completed at .295/.353/.462 with 20 dwelling runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Cellular Park, it isn’t straightforward to draw free agent hitters to Seattle, however Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers again that up: In 43 profession video games at T-Cellular, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.

Importantly for a Seattle lineup that’s heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the course of the order; he completed with the Seventeenth-best strikeout fee amongst certified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s total sport is a little bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in simply the seventh percentile in chase fee however nonetheless had a virtually league-average stroll fee (forty sixth percentile) with a superb contact fee. He cannot run (third percentile!) however stole 30 bases in 32 makes an attempt, together with 19-for-19 after becoming a member of the Mariners. He does not appear like he’d be fast within the area, however his Statcast defensive metrics have been above common in every of the previous 4 seasons.

He isn’t a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a profession excessive — however he is a protected, predictable participant to financial institution on for the subsequent few years. This deal runs by his age-33 season, so perhaps there’s some threat on the finish of the contract, however for a staff with World Collection aspirations in 2026, the Mariners wanted to deliver Naylor again. The entrance workplace shall be proud of this signing and so will Mariners followers. — David Schoenfield