Three days into the beginning of official free agent negotiations, and every week after the draft, the NBA has witnessed its typical, seasonal whirlwind of exercise. 9-figure surprises! Intriguing trades! A record-setting contract and drama swirling round multitime MVPs!
To make sense of all of the insanity, let’s establish the largest winners and losers of the summer season up to now. Because the offseason progresses, there’s nonetheless time for a few of these designations to vary; in recent times, the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard and Karl-Anthony Cities weren’t traded till September or October.
However for now, listed below are the groups, developments and transactions that matter most. We’ll start with the clearest winner of the 2025 offseason.
Winner: Houston Rockets
Irrespective of its follow-up strikes, Houston would have been an offseason winner on the advantage of the Kevin Durant commerce alone. That is how deeply the Rockets gained the Durant deal, buying a picture-perfect answer to their best weak point whereas not shedding any of their greatest younger gamers or draft picks in return.
However the Rockets did not cease after including Durant. In addition they signed Dorian Finney-Smith to a four-year, $53 million contract; signed Clint Capela to a three-year, $21.5 million pact; signed Fred VanVleet to a newly manageable contract; signed Jabari Smith Jr. to an inexpensive extension; and re-signed Jae’Sean Tate, Aaron Vacation and Jeff Inexperienced to spherical out the roster.
The top results of all this exercise is a deep, versatile roster that may beat opponents in all kinds of how: with protection, rebounding, dimension, physicality, youth, expertise, Durant’s shotmaking genius. The Rockets will problem the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder for the unofficial title of deepest group.
The Rockets may also problem the Thunder for a extra official title, as a result of Houston appears just like the second-best group within the West — and due to this fact the best risk to Oklahoma Metropolis’s likelihood at changing into the primary repeat champion since Durant’s Warriors in 2017 and 2018.
This is not an ideal roster. Houston will probably be extraordinarily depending on VanVleet, now in his 30s and previous his prime, due to an absence of backcourt depth. (A second-year leap from No. 3 decide Reed Sheppard, who averaged simply 4.4 factors in 12.6 minutes per sport as a rookie, can be a significant improvement for Houston.) The frontcourt rotation may additionally get messy if certified gamers assume they are not getting as many minutes as they deserve; with Capela becoming a member of Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams, Houston is perhaps leaning too far into its effective-in-doses two-center alignments.
However these are small quibbles with an in any other case stacked roster. The Rockets ably juggled their cap sheet, changed Dillon Brooks with Finney-Smith — who’s not as snug as a point-of-attack defender as Brooks, however that is not a difficulty for a group with Amen Thompson and Tari Eason — and upgraded from the inefficient Jalen Inexperienced to Durant, one of many most environment friendly perimeter scorers in NBA historical past. That is tips on how to win the offseason.
Loser: Los Angeles Lakers
From the second the Lakers acquired Luka Doncic in a shock blockbuster, they desperately wanted a middle. They misplaced their earlier starter, Anthony Davis, within the Doncic commerce, and Doncic’s sport would mesh completely with a dynamic pick-and-roll companion. There is a purpose Daniel Gafford broke out as soon as he joined Doncic in Dallas and that Dereck Energetic II was an influence rookie on the identical group.
So it was no shock that the Lakers agreed in precept to commerce for a younger, bouncy middle instantly after buying Doncic. However after they rescinded the Mark Williams deal due to a failed bodily, the Lakers have been caught with the gamers they already had on the roster. Jaxson Hayes began 4 playoff video games however clearly did not have coach JJ Redick’s belief, as he performed single-digit minutes in all 4 contests earlier than being benched as Redick moved to a small-ball strategy for all 48 minutes within the Lakers’ closing lack of the season.
On the very least, within the wake of the Lakers’ disappointing playoff flameout, their prime precedence this summer season appeared clear. And but, a couple of days into the free agent frenzy, all of their prime potential targets signed elsewhere, they usually have been caught with Deandre Ayton, a shock addition to the market after a buyout settlement with the Portland Path Blazers.
Ayton does not profile as a perfect short-term answer for a championship hopeful neither is he a long-term match subsequent to Doncic. The 2018 No. 1 decide — two picks forward of Doncic, by the way — is neither a rim runner nor a flooring spacer, and his sport peaked a half-decade in the past. Regardless of persistently spectacular field rating stats, the most effective public superior stats all charge Ayton as a below-average participant.
In the meantime, Ayton’s two-year cope with a participant possibility carries little upside for the group. If he is good in 12 months 1, he’ll decide out, whereas if he does not achieve Redick’s favor, he’ll keep on the group’s books for a second season.
This can be a harmful sport to play when the Lakers are attempting to handle James’ discontent and coax Doncic into signing a long-term extension later this summer season. For now, there’s not a lot about this roster that ought to compel his signature. The Lakers have an imbalanced rotation with plenty of energy forwards — Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, Jarred Vanderbilt and, in fact, James — however no reliable facilities, and their solely transfer of consequence apart from signing Ayton is changing Finney-Smith with Jake LaRavia.
Winner: Huge man depth
A key purpose the Lakers’ seek for a middle went so awry, so rapidly is that every one the great ones are already gone. One of many greatest (actually) themes of the primary week of the offseason is groups doubling down on large males, even when they already appear set on the place.
The Rockets signed Capela though they already had Sengun and Adams. The San Antonio Spurs picked up Luke Kornet though they already had Victor Wembanyama. The Denver Nuggets traded for Jonas Valanciunas to be the most effective backup Nikola Jokic has had in years. The LA Clippers added Brook Lopez to again up Ivica Zubac. The New York Knicks signed Guerschon Yabusele to play with Cities and Mitchell Robinson. The New Orleans Pelicans signed Kevon Looney to separate time with promising teenager Yves Missi. The Toronto Raptors prolonged Jakob Poeltl and signed Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Milwaukee Bucks signed Myles Turner and Jericho Sims, along with extending Bobby Portis.
The will for double-big lineups additionally appeared on draft evening, as two non-playoff groups within the West established long-term duos. The Path Blazers picked 7-foot-1 undertaking Yang Hansen to pair with 7-foot-2 second-year middle Donovan Clingan, whereas the Phoenix Suns, in fast succession, traded for veteran Mark Williams and drafted Khaman Maluach, the primary middle off the board.
Different contenders paid to maintain their established rotation of bigs intact. The Minnesota Timberwolves re-signed Naz Reid and Julius Randle for a mixed $225 million; add in Rudy Gobert, whose extension kicks on this season and the Timberwolves have $334.5 million dedicated to their bigs, even after buying and selling Cities. And the Memphis Grizzlies retained Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama for a mixed $292.5 million.
Furthermore, after the Thunder began Isaiah Hartenstein — a free agent splurge final summer season — and Chet Holmgren collectively en path to a title, they prolonged third large Jaylin Williams this week. And the Dallas Mavericks have been tremendous large since buying and selling for Davis; till Kyrie Irving returns from harm, their 5 greatest gamers are all pure energy forwards or facilities: Davis, newly prolonged Gafford, Energetic, P.J. Washington and No. 1 draft decide Cooper Flagg.
This leaguewide pattern may arrange some pleasant stylistic clashes for the few groups not following their lead, such because the Lakers and Golden State Warriors. However taken all collectively, these transactions make one factor very clear: After a decade of small-ball flirtations, large males are again in type — and never simply MVP winners comparable to Jokic and Joel Embiid, however gamers of all stripes and ranges, so long as they arrive with the requisite dimension.
Loser: Opponents making an attempt to attain inside in opposition to the San Antonio Spurs
Here is a telling statistic about one of many new large man duos. In accordance with GeniusIQ monitoring, 166 gamers have defended at the least 300 shot makes an attempt inside 5 toes over the previous two seasons. Amongst that group, Kornet (52.2%) ranks fifth and Wembanyama (52.3%) ranks sixth in lowest discipline purpose proportion allowed.
I wrote about Kornet in my checklist of underrated free agent targets, and the Spurs knew his worth, signing the journeyman middle to a four-year, $41 million deal. He’ll be a superb backup behind Wembanyama. However do not low cost their capability to operate collectively, as properly; Wemby-Kornet lineups should not develop too crowded on offense as a result of Wembanyama likes to play on the perimeter anyway, they usually’d kind a devastating defensive duo.
Winner: Denver Nuggets
For years, Denver’s beginning lineup has been among the finest within the sport. Final season was no exception, even with Christian Braun stepping in for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope after the latter departed in free company. The Nuggets’ starters had a web ranking of plus-10.6 within the common season and plus-11.3 within the playoffs. Even in opposition to the mighty Thunder within the second spherical, that quintet was plus-10.3 per 100 possessions.
But that success did not forestall the primary true breakup of Denver’s long-term core, which had been in place since even earlier than its title run in 2022-23. The Nuggets traded Michael Porter Jr. and an unprotected 2032 first-round decide for Cam Johnson, a perfect slot in Denver’s offensive system. Johnson is a knockdown shooter (39% on 3s in his profession) on excessive quantity, and whereas he does not have Porter’s dimension, he is far more dynamic off the bounce.
Furthermore, the monetary financial savings from this swap — as a result of Porter will earn about $17 million greater than Johnson subsequent season — gave the Nuggets the mandatory wiggle room for additional additions.
First, they signed Bruce Brown Jr., one other of my underrated free agent targets and a participant with a confirmed capability to thrive subsequent to Jokic. Then they traded Dario Saric, who performed simply 16 video games — none within the playoffs — for Denver after an ill-advised free agent deal final summer season, for Valanciunas, a very certified backup large who averaged a sturdy 20 factors and 15 rebounds per 36 minutes final season, proper according to his peak numbers.
Now not ought to Denver hemorrhage factors when Jokic heads to the bench, changed by the likes of Zeke Nnaji and mid-30s DeAndre Jordan.
Lastly, the Nuggets signed Tim Hardaway Jr., a prepared and succesful shooter (36% on 3s in his profession), who together with Johnson ought to assist enhance the Nuggets’ Thirtieth-ranked 3-point try charge.
In impact, the Nuggets misplaced two members of final season’s playoff rotation, Porter and Russell Westbrook. However they added 4 rotation-caliber gamers. Denver ought to now have the ability to go nine- or 10-deep comfortably, with the projected beginning 5 of Brown, Hardaway, Valanciunas and Peyton Watson, plus the potential for one other teenager comparable to Julian Strawther making a leap.
The Nuggets got here far nearer than another group within the West to knocking the Thunder off their championship path this spring. And now their 2025-26 roster appears a lot better than the 2024-25 model.
Loser: Milwaukee Bucks
To be truthful to the Bucks, this categorization is much less an indictment of their particular strikes this week and extra a mirrored image of a disastrous two years for the group. That rotten interval began with them hiring short-lived coach Adrian Griffin and buying and selling for Lillard, then culminated Tuesday by waiving Lillard and stretching the remaining $113 million on his contract.
The Bucks have been in a no-win place as quickly as Lillard ruptured an Achilles in April. They’ve treasured few property past Giannis Antetokounmpo: no younger expertise, no management of their upcoming picks and no monetary flexibility to improve round their two-time MVP. They did handle to create some short-term monetary flexibility by stretching Lillard’s deal and buying and selling Pat Connaughton, which allowed Milwaukee to steal middle Myles Turner away from the Indiana Pacers — however at an excessive long-term value.
Lillard will now depend for $22.5 million in opposition to the Bucks’ cap for every of the following 5 seasons. For context, $22.5 million is about what Cam Johnson will earn in upcoming seasons. (It is also about what Kyle Kuzma will earn over the following couple of seasons, which means the Bucks arguably have two holes of that dimension on their cap sheet.)
That is perhaps a good value to pay if the Bucks have been in competition for the 2025-26 title. However though the fringiest contenders within the Jap Convention have hope for subsequent yr, and though Turner will function a youthful Brook Lopez alternative subsequent to Antetokounmpo, it is troublesome to think about {that a} group beginning Kevin Porter Jr. at level guard, with as porous a fringe rotation as Milwaukee’s, can realistically compete.
Milwaukee’s entrance workplace deserves credit score for its boldness in pursuing win-now strikes to maximise Antetokounmpo’s prime, relationship again to the commerce that introduced Jrue Vacation — and, quickly after, a title — to city. However boldness alone will not ship extra playoff wins to Milwaukee; solely high-quality NBA gamers can do this. And even after this week’s stunner, the Bucks do not have sufficient.
Winner: Atlanta Hawks
It isn’t straightforward for groups led by a smaller level guard to advance deep into the playoffs, as a result of that offensive engine will invariably be focused on protection. The very best technique to fight this inherent weak point is the mannequin the Pacers used, as they surrounded Tyrese Haliburton with high-caliber defenders at each different place en path to Recreation 7 of the Finals.
The Hawks are attempting their greatest to copy this strategy, they usually’ve spent the previous two summers establishing a formidable roster round star level guard Trae Younger. This offseason, they made an opportunistic commerce for Kristaps Porzingis, an harm threat however an inarguable ceiling raiser, who was obtainable due to the Boston Celtics’ need to dump salaries. (Within the course of, the Hawks additionally shed Terance Mann’s damaging contract — which they by no means ought to have acquired on the commerce deadline — at the price of a late first-round decide.) The Hawks emerged as victors within the Nickeil Alexander-Walker sweepstakes, they usually changed Caris LeVert, who left for Detroit, with Luke Kennard, the energetic chief in profession 3-point proportion (43.8%).
Atlanta’s rotation now surrounds Younger with Defensive Participant of the 12 months runner-up Dyson Daniels; rangy, athletic wings in Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson and No. 1 decide Zaccharie Risacher; and plus defensive facilities in Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu. The Hawks have not completed a season with a defensive rating higher than 18th in Younger’s profession, however so long as they keep away from too many minutes with a Younger-Kennard backcourt, they’re going to have an opportunity to be above common this season.
And none of these transactions is even the most effective that Atlanta has accomplished this offseason. That may be absolutely the heist the Hawks pulled on draft evening, after they charged the New Orleans Pelicans an outrageous value to maneuver up 10 spots, from No. 23 to 13. However the Pelicans paid it! And now the Hawks personal the unprotected rights to the most effective decide between the Pelicans and Bucks subsequent summer season.
Given the Bucks’ continued uncertainty and the Pelicans’ weak standing in a loaded Western Convention, that decide is favored to land within the lottery. For reference, in my draft worth chart, the distinction between Nos. 13 and 23 is equal of the No. 28 decide, so the Hawks will nearly actually win this commerce.
Neglect their annual pilgrimage to a play-in sport; in a wide-open East, with all of those upgrades, the Hawks may conceivably soar towards a top-four seed subsequent season. Dropping Larry Nance Jr. — a sneakily wonderful bench improve for Cleveland — is the one minor ding in opposition to the Hawks’ in any other case stellar summer season.
Loser: New Orleans Pelicans
If the Hawks are winners primarily due to their draft day fleecing, the group they fleeced has to indicate up on the losers’ ledger. This was merely a baffling resolution from a brand new entrance workplace, led by Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver, that appeared to drastically misunderstand the group’s present place and the state of its roster.
The Pelicans completed 14th within the West final season, and whereas they’re going to nearly actually enhance on a 21-61 report with higher well being in 2025-26, it is exhausting to establish many groups they’re going to move within the standings. Even when the Suns regress, the Thirteenth-place Spurs, Twelfth-place Path Blazers and Tenth-place Mavericks all improved this summer season, and New Orleans should move all three of them (or two of them plus one other group larger up the standings) simply to achieve the again finish of the play-in match.
If the Pelicans do not attain the playoffs, they’re going to ship a lottery decide to the Hawks. They usually took that threat to have the ability to draft a prospect, Derik Queen, who would possibly develop right into a star however does not look like an excellent match subsequent to incumbent star Zion Williamson. Each tweener bigs flash related strengths and weaknesses. Can lineups with Williamson and Queen house the ground? Can they cease anybody on the opposite finish?
I won’t be piling on the Pelicans for one commerce on draft evening — irrespective of how ill-advised — if that have been their solely misstep of the offseason. However the brand new entrance workplace’s different strikes do not quantity to a coherent technique, both.
New Orleans additionally traded CJ McCollum and Kelly Olynyk for Jordan Poole and Saddiq Bey (in addition to swapped second-round picks with Washington). Bey may assist the Pelicans after he missed all of final season due to an ACL tear, however this was largely a matter of New Orleans selecting Poole over McCollum. But whereas Poole is eight years youthful, superior stats typically contemplate the 2 gamers about equal, and Poole is signed for an additional yr at $34 million.
And the Pelicans’ free agent signing is Looney, who will probably be a giant query mark in his first time outdoors Golden State’s distinctive system. It is particularly troublesome to ascertain how this offense will generate correct spacing with a number of non-shooters sharing the ground; Looney, Williamson, Queen and beginning middle Yves Missi have mixed for 51 made 3-pointers in 922 profession video games (counting school stats for Queen and NBA stats for the opposite three).