Sunday’s Week 14 slate wraps up with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans on “Sunday Night Football.”
Both teams are trying to claw their way into the playoffs. The Texans are right back in the thick of things after winning four straight. At 7-5, they are a game back of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South and -150 to make the playoffs. The 6-6 Chiefs, who were the Super Bowl favorite as recently as Week 11, are now +120 to even reach the playoffs.
The Texans and Chiefs met twice last season, once in the regular season and again in the divisional round, with Kansas City winning both games.
The Chiefs head into Sunday night’s matchup as 3.5-point favorites.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado and Eric Moody offer their picks, prop bets, DFS plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
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Game bet
14:12
Patrick Mahomes, WHAT HAPPENED? ‘It’s STILL hard to bet against him!’ – Peter Schrager
Kimberley A. Martin, Peter Schrager, Domonique Foxworth and Jeff Saturday join Mike Greenberg on Get Up to discuss all the biggest storylines after Week 13 in the NFL season.
Texans team total UNDER 19.5 (-120)
Maldonado: Houston is one of the worst red-zone offenses, finishing drives at a bottom-tier rate, exactly the trait that K.C. exploits. C.J. Stroud has struggled in both prior Arrowhead trips, and I expect no difference this time around. The Chiefs defense is top 10 in points per play allowed at home. The Texans can move the ball, but they also consistently stall.
Notable player props, bets
Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 interceptions (-102)
Loza: Mahomes has thrown seven picks (T-13) on the season, including two over his last three contests. Meanwhile, the Texans have flourished at creating takeaways, forcing 12 interceptions on the season (tied for the fourth most). Given the significant number of injuries along the Chiefs’ offensive line and Houston’s ability to bring pressure, Mahomes is likely to make a few errant throws. I’m betting on Matt Burke’s unit capitalizing on at least one of those opportunities.
C.J. Stroud OVER 229.5 passing yards (-110)
Moody: The Chiefs’ run defense has stifled opponents in recent weeks, allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game over their last three contests. With Woody Marks dealing with an ankle injury, the Texans will likely need to lean on Stroud and the passing game to move the ball. Stroud has cleared this line in four of his past six games. Kansas City’s defense also ranks near the bottom of the leagues in sacks, which should give Stroud ample time to deliver the football to his playmakers.
1:22
Why Daniel Dopp is apprehensive about starting Woody Marks in Week 14
Daniel Dopp breaks down why Woody Marks is a flex-only option in Week 14.
Jayden Higgins OVER 3.5 receptions (+114)
Bowen: Higgins has four or more receptions in each of his last four games. Using his frame and foot quickness to create separation back to the ball, Higgins can produce from both slot and boundary alignments. I like the over to hit here.
Daily Fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
1:13
Daniel Dopp: Rashee Rice has been unbelievable
Daniel Dopp reacts to Rashee Rice’s stellar fantasy performance in Week 13.
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Nico Collins ($14,700) has seen 10 or more targets in five of his last six games with at least 90 yards receiving in three. He’s a consistent and dependable option in the Texans route tree. Smart play in any matchup.
Also in my lineup: Travis Kelce ($8,800) has a touchdown reception in three of his last five games, and we know he can uncover late in the down on second-reaction throws from Patrick Mahomes. Find open grass here. And that leads to explosive-play receptions.
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Patrick Mahomes ($16,200). Houston has an elite defense, but Mahomes still has that magic. He ranks inside of the top five in passing yards and passing scores and averages 29 rushing yards per game (QB13). With the Texans sending pressure, I expect Mahomes to pick up some extra points via the ground.
Also in my lineup: Dalton Schultz ($5,400) is a solid volume play at a reduced cost. He has drawn at least eight looks in four of his last five games, working as an essential safety valve over the middle. C.J. Stroud should look to him frequently with the Chiefs’ pass rush attacking regularly.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Rashee Rice ($16,500). He is the volume anchor. He avoids Houston’s elite boundary coverage, lives in the slot, owns massive red-zone equity and has the safest path to receptions in a low-scoring game.
Also in my lineup: Nico Collins ($9,800). He is Houston’s entire passing heartbeat, commanding double-digit targets and producing even when the offense is stale. Collins is the last working flashlight in a power outage; everything else around him is fading, but he stays bright because he has to.
Moody’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Nico Collins ($14,700) enters this game with momentum, surpassing 75 yards in four of his last five games while averaging 9.8 targets per outing. Houston will need him in this high-stakes matchup with the Chiefs. His volume, paired with elite efficiency, makes him an appealing DFS play, even against a tough Kansas City secondary.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games, tied for the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL.
The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
Unders are 9-3 in Texans games this season, tied for the highest under rate in the NFL. Unders are 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last seven games.