The TPC San Antonio course serves as a rigorous examination of ball-striking prowess, revealing subpar iron control and compelling participants to exert considerable effort near the putting areas.
The nearly incessant downpours on Thursday rendered the typical “quick beginning” approach uncertain. Friday is projected to remain turbulent with gusts and persistent precipitation, and Saturday anticipates possible interruptions due to intense storms and postponements.
Conversely, Sunday’s outlook reverses entirely; predictions suggest a day that is colder, more arid, and suitable for play. Consequently, the outcome of this competition will probably not be determined prematurely, but rather favor consistent performers capable of enduring the initial three days and capitalizing once the weather moderates.
Exercise prudence with your betting selections this week. There is no benefit in compelling bets immediately preceding Masters week.
Probabilities provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
(inclusive of ties) and susceptible to alteration.
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Ludvig Åberg: Among the Top 20 Finishers (-125)
Complete probabilities:
Top 10 +165
Top 5 +315
To win +1500
The central inquiry this week revolves around whether TPC San Antonio will remain a test of ball-striking accuracy or transform into an arduous short-game challenge, as that differentiating factor holds paramount importance for Aberg.
His argument is straightforward. He delivered consecutive weeks of exceptional ball-striking, leading to a tied-for-3rd placement at Bay Hill and a tied-for-5th at The Players. His ‘strokes gained on approach’ metric places him among the top 10 competitors, achieving gains from the tee and with his irons concurrently, which is precisely the combination most advantageous on this course.
The TPC course is designed to highlight the shortcomings of mediocre iron players. Its fairways span 25-30 yards in width, the greens are extensively protected by bunkers, and their varying contours cause them to appear smaller than their true dimensions. An imprecise shot landing in an unfavorable location will necessitate recovery from deep sand traps or dense natural rough.
Given Aberg’s superior ball-striking, he seldom finds himself in either predicament.
Furthermore, should he misplay a shot, his short-game statistics provide support; ranking 12th in sand saves could prove advantageous considering the severity of the Valero greenside bunkers, in addition to being among the top 25 around the green. His only notable weakness is his general scrambling ability, yet with such precise irons, he initially generates simpler, more manageable recovery scenarios.
Jordan Spieth: Achieves a Top 20 Position (-110)
Complete probabilities:
Top 10 +190
Top 5 +375
To win +1850
Including Spieth in your selections resembles having several competitors due to his unpredictable nature, though this duality has both advantages and disadvantages. This particular week, the prevailing circumstances appear conducive to the iteration of Spieth you genuinely desire.
He has achieved three consecutive top-20 finishes at this venue, notably securing a victory in 2021. His consistent performance record here is not mere chance. He ranks among the top five for approach shots, within the top 30 for play around the green, and in the top 10 for tee-to-green performance—a skill set perfectly suited for a course requiring both exact iron play and inventive short-game strategies. When he attained a T10 in 2024, Spieth improved his ball-striking by almost 10 strokes. In 2025, his putting was his primary strength. Essentially, he consistently discovers methods to compete effectively.
The meteorological predictions, in fact, enhance his prospects from merely competent play to a stronger endorsement, attributed to anticipated rain and reduced scoring opportunities during the initial rounds. This suggests a week demanding resilience and inventiveness, persevering through challenging conditions, securing pars from positions where others would incur bogeys, and maintaining composure as rival players lose strokes.
During periods of discomfort and when disorder begins to differentiate the competitors, that is precisely the moment to endorse Spieth.
Competitors Worth Considering for Daily Fantasy
Sudarshan Yellamaraju, $8,100: The statistics indicate his relevance in discussions, placing him among the top six for tee shots, approach shots, and overall performance, augmented by consecutive top-six placements at The Players and Houston, showcasing remarkable iron play in nearly every event he has participated in this year. His current performance level is legitimate.
The potential downside is equally significant. His sand save percentage ranks 107th on a course intentionally designed with bunkers to create pressure, and he possesses no prior experience at this venue. The $8,100 valuation reflects a ball-striking aptitude that theoretically aligns with the course, contrasting with a roster of players who are intimately familiar with its nuances. While his maximum potential is evident, his minimum performance level remains truly uncertain.
Daily Fantasy Competitor to Avoid
Denny McCarthy, $8,200: His past performance at this course is verifiable, which will draw considerable interest. McCarthy secured a runner-up position in 2025, complemented by two additional top-20 finishes. The ‘horses for courses’ storyline will resonate strongly concerning him, and at a price of $8,200, he might appear to be a good deal. However, this is deceptive.
His current form in 2026 presents an issue that historical course performance cannot conceal; he has missed the cut in two of his last four outings, exhibited inconsistent play off the tee, and, while he has improved with his irons in consecutive rounds, the question remains whether this is sufficiently reliable. Prior to that, he experienced losses on approach shots for four consecutive rounds. It’s plausible he has discovered a solution, but he ranks below the top 50 in scrambling and outside the top 100 in sand saves. Should his iron play falter, he could face significant difficulties throughout the tournament. The former iteration of McCarthy is appealing, yet his 2026 rendition is more probable to manifest.