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PHOENIX — The women’s Final Four again showcases the identical contingent of premier squads that contested the national semifinals a year earlier. Even more noteworthy might be that the No. 1 seeds pitted against each other in Friday’s games are well-known adversaries.
Little will remain undisclosed when UConn and South Carolina converge in the initial national semifinal (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), with UCLA and Texas competing in the late match (9:30 ET, ESPN). The Huskies and Gamecocks faced off two times last season, a confrontation that included the 2025 national championship game in Tampa, Florida. The Bruins and Longhorns possess an even deeper acquaintance, due to their encounter on Nov. 26 during the inaugural Players Era Championship in Las Vegas.
Every one of these three competitions yielded conclusive outcomes. UConn claimed victory in Columbia with a score of 87-58 in February 2025, and then again overwhelmed South Carolina to secure their 12th national championship, 82-59. Azzi Fudd emerged as the standout performer in both matchups, amassing a total of 52 points.
Texas asserted their dominance over UCLA during the initial 20 minutes, the day preceding Thanksgiving, and established a 20-point lead by halftime before comfortably securing an 11-point triumph. The Bruins answered that setback — their sole loss of the entire season — by initiating a 29-game victory run. Only UConn has achieved a greater number of successive wins (54).
This Final Four is replete with standout athletes, including luminaries like UConn’s Sarah Strong and Fudd, Madison Booker of Texas and UCLA’s Lauren Betts — constituting four of the five first-team All-Americans. South Carolina’s Joyce Edwards made the second team.
However, which squads will emerge victorious on Friday? ESPN’s Andrea Adelson, Kareem Copeland, Charlie Creme, Alexis Philippou and Michael Voepel dissect the possibilities and offer their forecasts.
Who is the solitary pivotal athlete participating on Friday?
Adelson: Lauren Betts. To be candid: Betts might have amassed numerous points against UConn in the 85-51 semifinal defeat last year, but UCLA failed to rise to the occasion and was utterly defeated as the No. 1 overall seed. She finds herself again in this predicament, having gained wisdom and matured, and the time is, fundamentally, now or never.
For UCLA to possess any viable chance at securing the championship, Betts must perform optimally, both on the court and in a leadership capacity. In the initial encounter with Texas during the regular season, Betts logged 37 minutes, notching eight points and securing seven rebounds. UCLA requires significantly greater contributions to progress. “I think the primary disparity when reviewing the footage is simply generating chances to receive the ball as often as possible,” Betts stated. “They constitute a truly formidable defensive squad. I think as the perimeter guards face pressure, just endeavoring to achieve such an open position that they simply cannot avoid passing me the ball. Initiating play with a distinct degree of assertiveness will be truly crucial. I intend to ensure that occurs right from the outset.”
Copeland: Joyce Edwards. Should anyone possess the capacity to equal AP Player of the Year Sarah Strong’s output in the frontcourt area, it’s Edwards. Strong stood as the premier prospect in the 2024 class while Edwards followed closely as the No. 3. When Edwards performs optimally, she becomes a formidable opponent even without operating beyond the three-point line. And there might be an additional measure of incentive following her containment to merely 10 points on 4-for-12 shooting with five rebounds in the 23-point defeat against the Huskies in the 2025 national championship. South Carolina must compel Strong to exert effort defensively — and Edwards possesses the vigor and proficiency to achieve this.
Creme: Rori Harmon. Texas excels primarily in defense, and Harmon initiates it. Her defensive pressure on opposing point guards has the potential to incapacitate an offense. Charlisse Leger-Walker recorded a season-best six turnovers when Texas and UCLA clashed in Las Vegas. Being a point guard herself, Harmon ranks third nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (marginally surpassing South Carolina’s Raven Johnson and slightly trailing UConn’s KK Arnold) and has accumulated 29 assists against nine turnovers during this NCAA tournament.
What factors will decide South Carolina-UConn?
Copeland: The synergy between Edwards and Ta’Niya Latson. South Carolina must outpoint (obviously!) the offensive powerhouse that is UConn. The Huskies are emerging from their two lowest-scoring contests of the season in their past two, yet nonetheless overcame North Carolina and Duke. Edwards and Latson possess top-tier offensive capabilities — Latson topped the nation in scoring last season at Florida State — but tend to selectively choose their moments given a deep roster. Such selectivity is not an option on Friday. Star players are compelled to excel in contests of this magnitude, and South Carolina will require every single point it can amass to defeat an unbeaten No. 1 seed striving for a historic achievement. This represents the very chance for which Latson transferred.
Adelson: It is undeniable that South Carolina has become a superior shooting squad compared to their performance last year, and Latson’s inclusion has unequivocally contributed to this improvement. But Strong and Fudd caused significant trouble for South Carolina last season during the national championship game. Though the Gamecocks must devise a counter-strategy for them, keep an eye on Blanca Quiñonez, who is performing at an elevated standard in the NCAA tournament. Whenever her squad has required a boost, Quiñonez has delivered — she is tallying an average of 17.3 points in the NCAA tournament, with 20 points in the Elite Eight triumph over Notre Dame.
Creme: The Gamecocks do not primarily rely on 3-pointers, yet they execute it effectively, ranking fourth nationally in long-range accuracy (37.7%). Their two 26-point victories in the regional contests were partly propelled by 16-of-23 3-point shooting. South Carolina has amassed numerous wins this season even when their three-point shots weren’t connecting, however, in several of their most significant matchups, it proved to be an issue. Across their three defeats — two against Texas and one against Oklahoma — the Gamecocks managed a combined 10-for-40 from long range. Relying on Tessa Johnson and her 64.7% three-point success rate in the NCAA tournament could prove beneficial.
What factors will decide Texas-UCLA?
Creme: Ball-handling errors. When the Longhorns suffered consecutive defeats in mid-January against LSU and South Carolina, they logged 17 and 22 turnovers and were defeated by a mere eight points collectively. When Texas rectified these issues in the subsequent rematches later in the season, accumulating only 19 turnovers, this led to two victories. Texas coach Vic Schaefer pointed out on Thursday: Should his squad manage the ball effectively, it possesses a strong probability of winning. During that November clash between the Longhorns and Bruins, the Texas defense pressured UCLA into a season-worst 20 turnovers. Harmon and Jordan Lee overpowered the Bruins’ guards, especially during the initial half. Such a scenario cannot recur if UCLA intends to seek retribution.
Copeland: Defensive prowess. Texas has already demonstrated this ability once, restricting UCLA to a season-low point total in a 76-65 triumph in November. The Longhorns represent the nation’s premier defensive squad and physically coerce opponents into capitulation. However, should UCLA manage to limit Booker, Texas’s offensive endeavors will become challenging. The three-time All-American scores an average of six more points (19.3) than any other teammate on a squad where only three players average above 8.5 points. Harmon emerged as Texas’s top performer, achieving a season-best 26 points in their initial encounter, yet she has only managed to reach double-digit scoring in four instances since February. Will Texas
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Can they contend with UCLA’s varied attack if Booker is neutralized? Can UCLA devise plays to get the scoring opportunities it seeks?
Championship Semifinal Forecasts
South Carolina Against UConn
Adelson: UConn 70, South Carolina 60
My assessment is that South Carolina represents an improved squad compared to last year’s, yet I’m uncertain whether their defensive consistency is robust enough to contain the diverse scoring approaches UConn utilizes.
Copeland: South Carolina 74, UConn 71
The Gamecocks commenced their summer training sessions, greeted by video displays revealing the outcome of the previous year’s championship match – an 82-59 defeat against UConn. While South Carolina has endeavored to minimize its importance, it is undeniable that this 23-point loss has persisted in the Gamecocks’ thoughts. Seldom positioned as the underdog, Dawn Staley readies her group for a historically significant upset – toppling an unbeaten, top-ranked contender pursuing a record.
Creme: UConn 80, South Carolina 72
The contest from the prior year will hold no relevance for this encounter; however, Strong and Fudd are set to be impactful. The Huskies likely possess the top two athletes in the Championship Semifinal, and elite performers typically secure crucial victories.
Philippou: UConn 72, South Carolina 64
This encounter is destined to be a significantly tighter contest than their previous meeting for the 2025 championship crown. It appears Strong has yet to display her peak form this tournament; she seems poised for a stellar outing that advances UConn once more to the ultimate championship match.
Michael Voepel: UConn 70, South Carolina 66
It is challenging to bet against an undefeated squad. The Huskies did not necessarily exhibit their peak performance against Notre Dame in the Quarterfinal round, nonetheless securing an 18-point victory. However, the Gamecocks possess a broader array of scoring options than the Irish. Consequently, this encounter is likely to be a tight contest, with Strong serving as the decisive factor.
Texas Confronts UCLA
Adelson: Texas 65, UCLA 57
I observed firsthand in Greenville, South Carolina, at the SEC championship, Texas assert its defensive dominance repeatedly, contest after contest. The Longhorns stand as the most formidable squad I’ve witnessed this season, and despite the difficulty of defeating an opponent twice within a single season, their defensive prowess will once more prove decisive in the return match.
Copeland: Texas 70, UCLA 64
Texas stands as one of the select squads nationwide possessing the defensive capability to neutralize UCLA’s diverse scoring options, a feat they have already demonstrated earlier this season. The Longhorns play assertively, preventing opponents from settling in or reaching their preferred positions. They compel opposing offenses to adapt beyond their primary adjustments. Furthermore, Texas features the most outstanding athlete on the court in Booker, who is recording an average of 22.5 points in this tournament while achieving an astounding 58.6% field goal percentage.
Creme: Texas 72, UCLA 67
Both of these are evenly matched squads capable of triumphing through various means. However, Texas possesses a greater array of strengths. The Longhorns’ defensive performance has been exceptional, their offensive game has ascended to an elevated standard, and their long-range accuracy is significantly improved. Moreover, with Booker, the Longhorns feature a performer formidable enough, and in excellent form, to secure their victory.
Philippou: Texas 76, UCLA 69
With Harmon, a fifth-year senior, at the helm, Texas is exhibiting the strongest performance among all contenders still in contention. They are poised to sustain that impetus into Friday’s match to defeat the Bruins for the second occasion this season.
Voepel: Texas 77, UCLA 71
The Bruins have demonstrated a tendency towards sluggish initial periods, a trait that might prove detrimental against a Texas team that aggressively engages opponents defensively from the outset. Should one fall behind the Longhorns, it can be exceedingly difficult to recover. Texas has appeared as assured as any squad throughout this competition.