2025 NFL playoff odds tiers: Projecting 32 groups, standings

We’re formally into the second half of the 2025 NFL season, and the playoff race is heating up. Although the standings inform us so much about groups’ probabilities to succeed in the postseason, they do not inform us all the things. Crew power, accidents, tiebreakers, future power of schedule and extra can shift these odds up or down and do not present up within the win (or loss) column.

ESPN analytics author Seth Walder broke down all 32 groups into 9 tiers of playoff hopes, starting from clear Tremendous Bowl contenders to these already seeking to 2026. There are numerous shades of grey in between as a result of, for as a lot as we would really feel we learn about this NFL season, issues might look fairly totally different as soon as Week 18 rolls round. The tiers are based mostly on data from ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI), betting traces, efficiency metrics, well being standing and a few intuition.

Walder ranked the groups in every tier, although the true delineations are from tier to tier. ESPN’s NFL Nation reporters additionally added a tangible second-half objective for the groups they cowl, whether or not it is securing a first-round playoff bye or evaluating the way forward for the staff’s QB place. All statistical rankings are via the Sunday late afternoon window, and playoff chances are high from the FPI.

Bounce to a staff:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

Tier 1: True Tremendous Bowl contenders

Probabilities to make the playoffs: 96.2%
Probabilities to win the NFC East: 94.3%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 18.9%

The defending Tremendous Bowl champions will win their division once more. That a lot we all know. However what seed will that internet them within the playoffs? They spent the commerce deadline attempting to shore up a few weaknesses at edge rusher (Jaelan Phillips) and third nook (Michael Carter II), and the offensive line hasn’t been as dominant this season, however this can be a roster that would nonetheless get red-hot within the playoffs and go all the best way once more. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Safe the highest seed within the NFC. The Eagles have a commanding lead within the NFC East however have greater targets in thoughts. They’re in vary for the No. 1 seed nevertheless it’s a decent race, with the highest seven groups inside a recreation of one another within the standings. Wins in opposition to the Packers and Lions over the subsequent two weeks might give the Eagles some respiration room. — Tim McManus

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 93.3%
Probabilities to win the NFC West: 50.5%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 20%

It is easy to overlook how fragile the Rams’ Tremendous Bowl aspirations have been within the preseason, as quarterback Matthew Stafford was attempting to heal in an airstream. Not solely has Stafford been wholesome, however he is performed effectively. Extensive receiver Puka Nacua is within the midst of an Offensive Participant of the 12 months-type season. And the protection ranks fourth in EPA per play. And after handily beating the 49ers on Sunday, the Rams are just about locked into at the least a postseason berth. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Earn home-field benefit. The Rams’ previous two postseasons have resulted in robust environments: in a loud Ford Subject in opposition to the Lions within the 2023 wild-card spherical and within the snow in Philadelphia to finish the 2024 season. Los Angeles has already misplaced the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Eagles this season however nonetheless has a number of NFC contenders on the schedule: the Seahawks (Weeks 11, 16), Buccaneers (12) and Lions (15). — Sarah Barshop

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 91%
Probabilities to win the AFC East: 36.9%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 15.8%

It has been an imperfect season from Josh Allen — who presently ranks sixteenth in QBR — and the Payments, highlighted by their stunning loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. That defeat places them 1.5 video games again of the Patriots in their very own division, hampering their probabilities to earn a house playoff recreation, not to mention the No. 1 seed within the AFC. However whereas are deserved questions in regards to the struggling run protection, however with Allen on the helm the Payments ought to nonetheless be one of many Tremendous Bowl favorites come playoff time. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Payments must get via a number of accidents and a few offensive and defensive inefficiencies, however getting the highest seed is the one factor they have not completed within the Allen period. Overtaking the Patriots within the AFC East standings comes first (a giant matchup awaits in Week 15), however then all consideration will probably be on grabbing the highest seed within the convention. — Alaina Getzenberg

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 89.8%
Probabilities to win the NFC West: 33.7%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 10.5%

Quarterback Sam Darnold arrived in Seattle and proved all of the critics — I embody myself amongst them — mistaken. Darnold is enjoying mild years forward of the place he was final season in Minnesota, which has the Seahawks third in EPA per dropback. Again-to-back blowouts that flexed the Seahawks’ strengths on either side of the ball not solely cemented them as a near-certain playoff staff, however a Tremendous Bowl contender. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Get the run recreation going. Seattle has one of many NFL’s highest-scoring offenses regardless of a speeding assault that may’t get off the bottom. It is not for lack of attempting. No staff has the next designed rush charge than the Seahawks (50.9%), but they ranked twenty eighth in yards per carry (3.8). It hasn’t helped that Seattle has confronted probably the most containers with at the least eight defenders of any staff. The Seahawks hope the addition of speedy receiver Rashid Shaheed will create lighter containers, which might assist open the run recreation. — Brady Henderson

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Tier 2: Tremendous Bowl contenders … in the event that they make the playoffs

Probabilities to make the playoffs: 75.3%
Probabilities to win the AFC West: 27%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 16.7%

On this very area final yr I wrote about how the Chiefs weren’t pretty much as good as their 9-0 document instructed, however all that mattered was their playoff efficiency. This season, the script is sort of flipped. The Chiefs haven’t got the gaudy document, however they’ve performed at a barely increased stage on a play-to-play foundation in comparison with a yr in the past. Buoyed by a little bit of a renaissance season from Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs rank second in EPA per play (0.14). As a result of they’re 5-4, the playoffs will not be a lock. Assuming they get there, they’re going to possible need to take the lengthy method to the Tremendous Bowl like in 2023, because the No. 1 seed appears to be an extended shot. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: An improved cross rush. Coming into their bye week, the Chiefs’ greatest weak spot seems to be the cross rushers round Chris Jones. The Chiefs’ best method to go on a second-half run is to generate extra strain on the quarterback. Edge rushers George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu and rookie Ashton Gillotte must enhance the Chiefs’ cross rush win charge, which ranks twenty first at 35.6%. — Nate Taylor

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 78.2%
Probabilities to win the NFC North: 35%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 12.7%

It is jarring not placing the Lions within the prime tier, however their document – and the power of the NFC North – prevents them from being a postseason lock. The coordinator change questions have been answered — the Lions are ranked fourth in EPA per play on offense and seventh on protection. The loss to the Vikings in Week 9 was a adverse, however the Lions must be one of many NFC’s most harmful playoff groups … assuming they make it. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Develop an offensive identification below first-year offensive coordinator John Morton. Detroit has proven glimpses of dominance, resembling its 52-point outburst in opposition to Chicago in Week 2 and the 38-point effort in Week 3 at Baltimore, however the Lions are presently scuffling with effectivity as they navigate a tricky November stretch. “We’re inefficient,” Lions passing recreation coordinator David Shaw stated. “We’re explosive. After we do all of it proper, we’re enjoyable to look at.” — Eric Woodyard

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 80.8%
Probabilities to win the NFC North: 51.9%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 14.8%

Whereas the Packers sit at 5-2-1, it seems like they have not reached their potential. They have been fairly conservative in how usually they run the ball vs. passing, however on the identical time have been awfully environment friendly on designed cross performs (No. 1 in EPA per dropback coming into Monday). And contemplating Micah Parsons’ presence on protection, it feels as if the cross rush has the next ceiling, too. This may be seen as excellent news for his or her Tremendous Bowl prospects – the Packers may very well be higher than what we have seen. However they need to get to the postseason first, and that march begins with an enormous recreation on Monday evening in opposition to the previous Tremendous Bowl champs. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Discover one other playmaker for Jordan Love. That will not be simple with the lack of tight finish Tucker Kraft to a season-ending knee harm in Week 9. When he was injured, Kraft was tied for second amongst all tight ends with six landing catches and ranked third amongst tight ends with 489 yards receiving. Kraft was Love’s second-most focused participant behind Romeo Doubs. The excellent news is that Christian Watson has returned from final season’s torn ACL and already has proven flashes of his big-play capability. The Packers also needs to get again receiver Jayden Reed, who’s rehabbing after foot surgical procedure and a damaged collarbone. — Rob Demovsky

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 56.3%
Probabilities to win the AFC North: 51%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 7.1%

I am pretty assured the opposite groups on this tier will make the playoffs. However I am not as sure on the Ravens after a brutal 1-5 begin that included a Week 1 collapse to the Payments, a Lamar Jackson harm and dangerous protection early on. However we have caught a glimpse of the Ravens of previous after their bye. Baltimore is lucky to play in a winnable AFC North. Ought to the Ravens surge and make the playoffs, I am not going to doubt their probabilities as soon as they get in. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Make a robust run to win a 3rd straight AFC North title. This appeared unrealistic after a 1-5 begin. However the Ravens, who’ve 5 division video games remaining, are set for a robust end so long as Jackson stays wholesome. Jackson is 21-9 (.700) in his profession in opposition to the AFC North, averaging 28.3 factors per recreation. The protection has been inconsistent, however Jackson has confirmed he can carry a staff to the highest of the division. Jackson’s 4 AFC North titles rank behind solely Ben Roethlisberger’s eight. — Jamison Hensley

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Tier 3: (Virtually) playoff locks

Probabilities to make the playoffs: 96%
Probabilities to win the AFC South: 86.7%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 21.3%

The Colts ought to most likely be increased strictly from a numbers standpoint. The Colts are ranked first in EPA per play on offense and sixth on protection, pushed by an elite working assault and quarterback Daniel Jones enjoying the most effective ball of his profession. And now they’ve added Sauce Gardner, too, giving Indianapolis a heck of a cornerback room when Charvarius Ward returns. However I nonetheless cannot shake the Jones issue — and all the things we have seen out of him previous to this season. Maybe I am clinging to my priors, however I feel I would favor any of the Tier 2 groups in opposition to the Colts in the event that they have been to satisfy within the playoffs. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Get their protection wholesome and enjoying on the mandatory stage to confront the highest quarterbacks come January. The Colts have invested lots of sources on protection, and the commerce deadline acquisition of CB Sauce Gardner exhibits they’re severe about making a run this season. Now, it is time for outcomes. Regardless of Indianapolis’ offensive fireworks, its protection wants to carry up for a Tremendous Bowl march. The Colts are fourth within the NFL with 29 sacks, however they’re twenty sixth in third-down protection. — Stephen Holder

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 94.4%
Probabilities to win the AFC East: 63.1%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 8.9%

Quite a bit has gone proper for New England this season, from quarterback Drake Maye’s breakout, veteran broad receiver Stefon Diggs enjoying effectively coming off a torn ACL final season, a wonderful run protection to getting stunning sack manufacturing out of edge rushers Harold Landry III and Ok’Lavon Chaisson. However they’ve additionally had a soft schedule, because the Patriots entered Sunday having performed the best schedule within the league up to now. New England has a straightforward path the remainder of the best way, too. They handed a giant check with a win on the Bucs on Sunday. The actual check will come within the postseason, which they’re now nearly assured to succeed in. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Cut back the variety of hits and sacks on Maye. The Patriots’ 35 sacks allowed are the second most within the NFL, behind solely the Titans (38), and 12 of them got here in Weeks 8 and 9. Maye has stated some sacks through the latest spike are his fault, as he can do a greater job defending himself by eliminating the ball. — Mike Reiss

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 91.6%
Probabilities to win the AFC West: 49.9%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 13%

It has been a shaky sophomore season for Bo Nix, who’s presently ranked 18th in QBR regardless of the Broncos rating fourth in cross block win charge. The protection, anticipated to be elite going into the season, has completed its job although: rating second in EPA per play. Most necessary, getting eight wins in 10 video games to begin the season will make it extraordinarily arduous for Denver to overlook the postseason. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Particular groups enchancment. With an inconsistent offense, a giant a part of Denver’s playoff hopes will relaxation on whether or not its particular groups will be extra dependable within the massive moments. The Broncos have had a discipline objective blocked, ill-timed penalties, poor choices on returns, a misplaced fumble on a muffed punt, substitution points and have allowed a 72-yard kickoff return in addition to a 45-yard punt return. Rookie punter Jeremy Crawshaw had his share of points on Thursday. That is far too many missteps for a staff with playoff aspirations. — Jeff Legwold

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Tier 4: Doubtless in, barring a collapse

Probabilities to make the playoffs: 89.7%
Probabilities to win the NFC South: 87.7%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 8.5%

Quarterback Baker Mayfield’s scorching begin to the season and broad receiver Emeka Egbuka’s emergence as a severe Offensive Rookie of the 12 months candidate straight away has the Buccaneers 14th in EPA per play regardless of a rash of accidents and has helped make them the highest of the NFC South. That must be sufficient to get Tampa Bay again to the playoffs contemplating how weak the NFC South is, and the Bucs have a manageable schedule the remainder of the best way. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Getting wholesome on offense. Beginning proper deal with Luke Goedeke started his 21-day apply window this week. Operating again Bucky Irving is working on his sprained foot however hasn’t had any sort of contact on his subluxated shoulder. Extensive receiver Chris Godwin (fibula) is working as effectively. If they will get again any of these gamers, it will take among the consideration away from rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka. Receivers Mike Evans (collarbone) and Jalen McMillian (neck) might additionally return, however there aren’t any ensures with them. — Jenna Laine

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Tier 5: We’re leaning sure

Probabilities to make the playoffs: 85.8%
Probabilities to win the NFC West: 15.9%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 10.3%

Contemplating they’ve gotten solely two video games from quarterback Brock Purdy and misplaced their two finest defensive gamers (edge rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner) for the season, it is sort of spectacular the 49ers are even this excessive. Their down-to-down metrics have not even been that good! However they have been capable of climate the storm and even when they have not been probably the most environment friendly staff, the six wins they’ve banked are large. Taking part in with out Bosa and Warner will probably be robust, however Purdy’s eventual return will assist — as will a really smooth schedule down the stretch. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Turn into a top-10 scoring offense. The Niners have constantly moved the ball, rating eleventh in yards per recreation (356.2), however they’re seventeenth within the NFL in offensive factors per recreation (22.0). Purdy (toe), receivers Ricky Pearsall (knee) and Brandon Aiyuk (knee) and beginning offensive linemen Ben Bartch (ankle) and Jake Brendel (hamstring) may very well be again within the lineup quickly. That may assist them end drives with touchdowns extra often in opposition to a slate that ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index ranks because the seventh best over the ultimate two months. — Nick Wagoner

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 75.6%
Probabilities to win the AFC West: 23.1%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 9.1%

The Chargers would have most likely been in the next tier in the event that they weren’t ravaged with accidents. Have they banked sufficient wins with a purpose to squeak into the playoffs even with out offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt? Proper now their offensive line in entrance of quarterback Justin Herbert is frankly not adequate — the Chargers entered Sunday ranked final in cross block win charge if we filter all the way down to snaps performed with out Alt. I feel they will do sufficient to make the playoffs, nevertheless it’s not a assure. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Enhance kickoff and punt return protection. The Chargers’ particular groups have been among the many league’s worst, permitting probably the most kickoff return yards (1,203) and fourth-most punt return yards (198) coming into Week 10. This unit was a power, and struggles right here may very well be the distinction in how far the Chargers go this season. — Kris Rhim

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 56.1%
Probabilities to win the AFC North: 43.9%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 4.5%

The Aaron Rodgers experiment might be going slightly higher than the Steelers might have moderately hoped, they usually’re in a stable place within the standings even with their protection underperforming so far. Pittsburgh definitely could make the postseason, nevertheless it’ll want the protection to kick it up a notch to get there. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Play constant protection. The Steelers have largely been boom-or-bust on protection via the primary half of the season. Turnovers have usually are available bunches — 5 in a win in opposition to the Patriots, six in beating the Colts — however the protection falters when the takeaways aren’t there. The Steelers went a month between pressured turnovers, and although they entered Week 10 tied for third with 27 sacks, they’ve had 4 video games the place they recorded two or fewer sacks. — Brooke Pryor

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Tier 6: On the perimeter of hope and despair

Probabilities to make the playoffs: 44.1%
Probabilities to win the NFC North: 11.3%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 2.4%

The offense has gotten there. From Week 5 to Week 9, the Bears offense ranked third in EPA per play, fueled by a speeding assault that discovered its method within the second quarter of the season after struggling early. Caleb Williams’ accuracy numbers improved from abysmal to merely under common — which is likely to be all of the Bears should be threatening. It is a robust path forward, however Chicago’s previous wins and up to date offensive effectivity provides it a stable probability on the postseason.— Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Learn to play a whole recreation. 4 of Chicago’s six wins have been nail-biters, with a blocked discipline objective in Las Vegas, game-winning discipline objective in Washington, a 58-yard landing cross with 25 seconds to play in Cincinnati and Sunday’s comeback over the Giants getting the Bears to 6-3. Chicago leads the NFL with 20 takeaways and has a top-8 scoring offense. If the Bears can shut out opponents extra convincingly, these shut wins can flip into assertion victories. — Courtney Cronin

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Caleb Williams’ unbelievable TD run places Bears up late

Caleb Williams manages to remain inbounds en path to the tip zone because the Bears take a late lead vs. the Giants.

Probabilities to make the playoffs: 41.8%
Probabilities to win the AFC South: 10.5%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 1.9%

The Jaguars’ season has featured ups (beating the Chiefs!) and its downs (quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s inconsistent play and their blown lead in opposition to the Texans on Sunday) however via all of it, they’ve positioned themselves for a postseason run. Jacksonville has performed one of many harder schedules within the NFL up to now and has one of many simpler schedules the remainder of the best way. However Sunday’s loss was expensive — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Fewer dropped passes. The Jaguars lead the NFL with 20 drops, together with 5 by Brian Thomas Jr. They’ve killed drives and price the Jaguars an opportunity to win at the least another recreation (Week 2 vs. Cincinnati). That was one of many principal causes the Jaguars acquired Jakobi Meyers on the commerce deadline. He has solely 11 drops in 99 profession video games and has by no means had greater than two in a season. GM James Gladstone referred to as Meyers’ sure-handedness his superpower. — Mike DiRocco

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Tier 7: Stranger issues have occurred

Probabilities to make the playoffs: 14.5%
Probabilities to win the AFC South: 2.9%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 1.2%

As anticipated, the offensive line has been a significant situation. However the protection has been dominant and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is hovering round Defensive Participant of the 12 months candidacy, a giant cause why I am not able to rule out Houston but. The unbelievable comeback win Sunday in opposition to the Jaguars breathed some life into the Texans’ playoff likelihood. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Offensive coordinator Nick Caley getting his unit rolling. The offense was supposed to enhance from the place it was final season below Bobby Slowik, however the unit has solely scored 21.3 factors per recreation, barely exceeding the 20.5 factors per recreation Houston tallied in 2024. If Caley can not help the offense rating extra factors and be extra explosive, he may not be round subsequent season. — DJ Bien-Aime

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Sheldon Rankins takes Trevor Lawrence fumble to the home to cement Texans win

Sheldon Rankins recovers the fumble from Trevor Lawrence and takes it to the home to seal the Texans’ 36-29 comeback win over the Jaguars.

Probabilities to make the playoffs: 16.6%
Probabilities to win the NFC South: 10%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 0.4%

There are many causes to be skeptical of the Panthers. After dropping to the Saints on Sunday, the Panthers’ document not solely dropped to .500, however their level differential fell to minus-45. Carolina’s place within the standings is an aberration in comparison with its high quality — the protection struggles mightily in opposition to the cross, fueled by a scarcity of a cross rush — nevertheless it earned sufficient early wins for an opportunity to in some way sneak in later. I would not wager on it, although. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Keep in playoff rivalry. The Panthers entered the season hoping to be a playoff contender down the stretch. They’re near undertaking that. Now, it is as much as a protection, which has improved from worst within the NFL in most main classes to prime 15, to maintain video games shut sufficient to let QB Bryce Younger, who’s 4-0 in one-score video games this season, do his factor. It will not be simple, as Carolina faces a tricky stretch that features the 49ers, Rams, Seahawks and Buccaneers (twice) — David Newton

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 8.6%
Probabilities to win the NFC North: 1.8%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 0.5%

Minnesota’s season appeared on the verge of being over earlier than it upset the Lions in Week 9. And it did so with J.J. McCarthy. The second-year quarterback was first rate sufficient in that contest to present the Vikings some hope that 2025 may not be a wasted season. There’s nonetheless a big hill to climb, particularly given Sunday’s loss to the Ravens and the Vikings’ troublesome schedule the remainder of the best way, however the playoffs will not be completely out of play. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: See what they’ve at QB. The Vikings entered this season hoping to string a needle. They needed to develop McCarthy in actual time whereas additionally utilizing their $350 million roster to compete for a playoff berth. Each stay potential, however the former is extra reasonable and achievable. The franchise’s prime precedence is to get McCarthy as many snaps as potential through the second half of the season. — Kevin Seifert

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Tier 8: Sure, I am telling you there is a (slight) probability

Probabilities to make the playoffs: 8.3%
Probabilities to win the NFC East: 4.8%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 0.8%

Do not inform Jerry Jones, however his silly commerce for defensive deal with Quinnen Williams is unlikely to be the distinction between the Cowboys making the playoffs and never. Dallas did have potential this season, particularly figuring out how effectively Dak Prescott has performed (second in QBR, 75.2) and the way effectively the George Pickens acquisition has labored out. However the protection has allow them to down and the Williams deal occurred too late to maneuver the 2025 needle. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: The protection performs to the league common for the ultimate eight video games. The Cowboys are thirty first in yards and factors allowed per recreation and on tempo to have the worst third-down protection for the reason that 1982 Chiefs. If the acquisitions of Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson, plus the return of linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. from harm, can jump-start the protection, there will probably be cause for hope for 2026. That might forestall Dallas from having to rent a fourth defensive coordinator in 4 seasons. — Todd Archer

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 6.8%
Probabilities to win the AFC North: 5.2%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 0.6%

Three issues went very, very mistaken for the Bengals this season. First, quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a long-term harm. Second, backup QB Jake Browning imploded after being succesful previously. Third, even after buying and selling for Joe Flacco (and having him play effectively as a Bengal!), the league’s worst protection (by way of EPA per play) hasn’t stopped anybody. All of the Bengals can do now’s go on a run to present themselves an opportunity for when Burrow might return on the finish of the season. However that is a prayer, at finest. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Work out if any of the younger defensive gamers are good. For the second straight season, Cincinnati is attempting to establish core defensive gamers to construct round. The Bengals have used 11 top-100 draft picks on defensive gamers since 2021, and it is unclear if any deserve a profitable second contract. Edge Joseph Ossai, who signed a one-year deal within the offseason, and cornerbacks Dax Hill and DJ Turner II have been promising. However the Bengals want far more after spending massive on key offensive gamers. — Ben Child

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 5.1%
Probabilities to win the NFC South: 2%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 0.2%

An up-and-down yr from second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and a middling season from their blitz-heavy protection has resulted within the Falcons touchdown in third place in a weak NFC South. Atlanta has a straightforward schedule the remainder of the best way, nevertheless it possible will not be sufficient to vault the Falcons into the playoffs. I will go forward and guess Atlanta regrets dealing its 2026 first-round choose to maneuver up within the 2025 draft. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Persevering with to develop Penix. This can be a playoff-or-bust season for a corporation that has not reached the postseason since 2017, tied for the second-longest drought within the NFL. Issues will not be trying nice on that entrance. However the Falcons’ second-year quarterback has proven flashes of brilliance amid an inconsistent season. If Penix develops and turns into a top-12 quarterback within the league, Atlanta’s bitter style could be lessened. — Marc Raimondi

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 1.1%
Probabilities to win the NFC East: 0.9%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: 0.1%

It might take two miracles for Washington to make the playoffs. The primary could be Jayden Daniels recovering rapidly from his dislocated elbow harm — which Dan Quinn stated Friday won’t require surgical procedure — then go on a loopy run to earn a playoff spot for the second. Even when Daniels is ready to return early, I am skeptical, because the Commanders’ protection hasn’t been adequate. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Higher play from the protection and wholesome receivers, most notably Terry McLaurin. McLaurin and Noah Brown, Washington’s anticipated No. 3 wideout, have missed a mixed 12 video games, and the offense has scored 47 factors the previous three weeks. However the protection has been abysmal and there’s little confidence that the Commanders have the best gamers in place for the long run. Washington’s protection ranks twenty ninth in factors allowed and thirtieth in yards allowed per recreation. It should be extra aggressive. — John Keim

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 2.3%
Probabilities to win the NFC West: <0.1%
Probabilities to make the Tremendous Bowl: <0.1%

There was some hope coming into the season that Arizona would possibly be capable of pull itself out of mediocrity, however that by no means materialized. Actually, the season went sideways sufficient that the staff (possibly?) benched Kyler Murray (now on IR) in favor of Jacoby Brissett. The Cardinals aren’t a foul staff, however they are not good, both. So they will not be making up for his or her first-half document within the second half of the season. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Win extra video games than they lose. It would sound easy and sophomoric, however after beginning the season 2-5, Arizona should both attempt to win as many video games as potential or play for a excessive draft choose. With Brissett now at quarterback for at the least the subsequent three video games, the Cardinals’ offense ought to play effectively. And with Arizona’s protection enjoying at a excessive stage, the Cardinals are able to drag off shock wins and construct constructive momentum. — Josh Weinfuss

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Tier 9: Relaxation up for 2026

Probabilities to make the playoffs: 0.3%

The vibes have been dangerous in Miami heading into the season, and it solely went downhill from there. Tyreek Hill suffered a season-ending harm, Tua Tagovailoa has performed poorly, the losses have piled up and the Dolphins (logically) dealt Jaelan Phillips on the commerce deadline. This can be a staff with choices to make about its future, even with its unlikely victory over Buffalo on Sunday. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Go .500 over their ultimate eight video games. This most likely runs opposite to many followers’ objective of a excessive choose in subsequent yr’s draft. And sure, the Dolphins nonetheless have video games remaining in opposition to the Patriots, Steelers and Buccaneers — however in addition they play the Saints, Commanders, Jets and Bengals. Persevering with to point out battle in a misplaced season would go a good distance towards coach Mike McDaniel being retained, with Sunday being an encouraging begin. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: <0.1%

On one hand, rookie Jaxson Dart has displayed actual promise when wholesome — he ranks 14th in QBR (63.2) — and the cross rush must nonetheless be a priority for opponents. A part of my — and FPI’s — relative confidence stems from the truth that the Giants had performed the toughest schedule of anybody coming into Sunday. However the eight losses — together with Sunday’s to the Bears — are far an excessive amount of to beat. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Be respectable and maintain Dart wholesome. Their playoff proportion says all of it. The remainder of this season is about competing and creating Dart. His success will go a good distance in figuring out the way forward for the franchise. However for Dart to be taught on the sphere, he should stay wholesome. He had taken the second-most complete hits (84) since changing into the Giants’ starter in Week 4, and he was knocked out of Sunday’s recreation as a result of a concussion. — Jordan Raanan

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 0.3%
Probabilities to win the NFC South: 0.3%

This at all times appeared like it will be a nothing season for New Orleans. And that is precisely what it has been for the Saints. The remainder of the yr will be spent evaluating rookie Tyler Shough to seek out out if he is a possible franchise QB, or in the event that they must look to begin over with a first-round quarterback within the 2026 draft. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Develop Shough. The Saints already made a quarterback change, and in the event that they proceed dropping video games, they may very well be one of many prime picks within the 2026 draft. Their curiosity in bringing in one other quarterback within the offseason relies on Shough’s success. If he can present some hope, the Saints might use their first-round choose to deal with different wants — Katherine Terrell

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 0.2%

The Jets’ season was over lengthy earlier than they dealt Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams on the commerce deadline. However the strikes signaled that the Jets are rightfully prioritizing 2026 and past. A technique or one other they’re going to want a brand new quarterback, however in addition they have the draft picks over the subsequent couple years to help whoever that QB finally ends up being. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: End as a top-20 scoring offense, one thing they have not completed since 2015. The Jets are twenty sixth, so the objective is inside attain. In contrast to the protection, which has been ripped aside by the latest trades of Gardner and Williams, the offense stays intact. In fact, QB Justin Fields will probably be evaluated over the ultimate 9 video games, nevertheless it most likely will not matter as a result of the Jets will possible make a QB transfer within the offseason, particularly with their newfound draft capital. — Wealthy Cimini

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: 0.1%

You might see the imaginative and prescient heading into the season. Geno Smith teaming up with Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly — that would work! It hasn’t. Smith has been dreadful, rating thirtieth in QBR, and the Raiders rank thirty second in EPA per designed carry regardless of drafting working again Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 general choose. Add in a subpar protection (albeit one which held the Broncos to 10 factors on Thursday) and this staff goes nowhere. The Raiders face severe questions on their course after this season. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Enchancment throughout the board. Quite a bit must occur for the Raiders to show round their season, however the offense must construct on its Week 9 efficiency in opposition to the Jaguars. That marked the primary recreation this season that the Raiders scored greater than 25 factors. The protection additionally must be higher at stopping drives. The Raiders have allowed a third-down conversion charge of 45% — twenty ninth within the league. — Ryan McFadden

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: <0.1%

The Browns’ 2025 season has served as a ready recreation on an extended shot — might both rookie quarterback become somebody they may play long run? To this point, it would not appear to be it. The excellent news is the remainder of the draft class has appeared fairly nice: LB Carson Schwesinger, TE Harold Fannin Jr. and RB Quinshon Judkins turned instant-impact gamers and first-round DT Mason Graham has had his moments, too. That can assist going ahead, when the Browns take one other swing at quarterback. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Get a agency analysis of rookie QBs Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. The Browns are sticking with Gabriel, who has began 5 video games and recorded a 32.5 QBR, which ranks thirty first out of 32 qualifying passers. Sooner or later, although, Cleveland is predicted to play Sanders, who’s QB2. The Browns’ rookie class has impressed, however getting an extended take a look at each passers will assist information their offseason path. — Daniel Oyefusi

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Probabilities to make the playoffs: <0.1%

A misplaced first season with Cam Ward introduced the tip of Brian Callahan’s tenure. They will reset with a brand new coach subsequent season and hope he can get extra out of Ward. One piece of fine information — the Titans have boatloads of cap area, which ought to lead to a free agent spending frenzy to bolster the roster. — Walder

Tangible second-half objective: Develop Ward. Ward’s development must be the point of interest for the rest of the season. The Titans would profit from serving to him achieve momentum going into 12 months 2 by ending his rookie season on a excessive observe. Ward continues to be working to make changes to his mechanics and footwork. There also needs to be emphasis on rising his really feel for the sport and understanding {that a} checkdown will be his good friend when the deep photographs aren’t there. — Turron Davenport

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