Welcome to The Playbook for Week 11, which kicks off Thursday with the Jets on the Patriots.
This column options rating projections, over/unders, win possibilities, and, in fact, simply digestible fantasy recommendation for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This information ought to allow you to with all kinds of decision-making, together with sit/begin, last-minute waiver provides and lineup selections.
Moreover, we have now folded the Shadow Reviews, beforehand a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns right here. Utilizing our play-by-play knowledge, we’re capable of establish defensive schemes and the place every huge receiver and cornerback traces up on every play. By monitoring these WR/CB matchups, together with potential shadow conditions, we will provide the most effective projections, rankings, sit/begin recommendation and waiver wire solutions every week.
All of this recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively commonplace scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 Okay, 1 D/ST), though I am going to usually point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who’ve been projected for at the least 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is routinely decided utilizing a proprietary metric that elements in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection this season.
(Editor’s word: Projections and rankings will align virtually completely, however generally when a projection is shut, a participant is likely to be ranked barely larger or decrease due to different elements, together with upside or threat. This column is topic to updates in the course of the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings can be up to date on the location and projections will all the time be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)
NYJ-NE | WAS-MIA | CAR-ATL | TB-BUF | HOU-TEN | CHI-MIN | GB-NYG | CIN-PIT
LAC-JAX | SEA-LAR | SF-ARI | BAL-CLE | KC-DEN | DET-PHI | DAL-LV
Projected rating: Patriots 31, Jets 19
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Breece Corridor, Stefon Diggs
Fantasy scoop: You would be hard-pressed to bench Corridor, however he has huge bust potential this week towards maybe the league’s greatest run protection. New England has allowed the fewest dashing yards and lowest yards per carry (3.3), in addition to the second-fewest scrimmage yards and touchdowns (three) to RBs this season. No working again has reached 50 dashing yards towards the Patriots in any recreation.
The potential saving grace right here is the passing recreation, as New England has surrendered essentially the most RB receptions, permitting 17-plus fantasy factors efforts to Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane. Corridor, who ranks seventh amongst RBs in receiving yards, must be seen as a midrange RB2 this week.
Over/below: 49.4 (eighth highest)
Win likelihood: Patriots 87% (2nd highest)
Projected rating: Dolphins 26, Commanders 24
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel
Fantasy scoop: Chris Rodriguez Jr. left Sunday’s recreation within the third quarter because of a shoulder harm, but it surely’s value noting that he had seemingly changed Jacory Croskey-Merritt because the staff’s lead again previous to his departure. Rodriguez began and performed seven of 9 snaps earlier than Croskey-Merritt even noticed the sector. Rodriguez went on to play 17 of 25 first-half snaps, though Croskey-Merritt did play eight straight snaps to open the second half earlier than Rodriguez noticed the sector. Rodriguez went down on his first snap of the second half, and Croskey-Merritt went on to play 10 snaps, in comparison with 9 for Jeremy McNichols. The trio mixed for 14.5 fantasy factors and none cleared 30 yards.
The excellent news is that Week 11 presents a superb matchup (Miami has allowed the fourth-most yards, eighth-most fantasy factors and 4.9 yards per carry to RBs), however the unhealthy information is that this can be a three-headed committee in a struggling, Jayden Daniels-less offense. This can be a state of affairs greatest averted, but when Rodriguez is sidelined, Croskey-Merritt (below 6.0 fantasy factors in six straight) can have some deep-league flex attraction.
Shadow Report: Improve Miami’s receivers towards a struggling and injury-riddled Washington secondary that features Jonathan Jones and Noah Igbinoghene on the boundary and Mike Sainristil within the slot. Washington has surrendered the third-most fantasy factors to receivers this season and has the worst EPA towards the go over the previous 4 weeks. The Commanders sit prime 5 in yards (1,779), touchdowns (13), yards per goal (9.8) and catch charge (69%) allowed to receivers. Waddle is the principle benefactor right here, however Malik Washington has some sleeper flex attraction.
Over/below: 50.3 (third highest)
Win likelihood: Dolphins 59% (tenth highest)
Projected rating: Falcons 22, Panthers 19
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Rico Dowdle, Drake London, Tetairoa McMillan
Fantasy scoop: McMillan has loved a 38% goal share over the previous three weeks, which trails solely Jaxon Smith-Njigba (42%) for highest within the NFL. The increase in utilization is good, although it hasn’t led to a ton of fantasy factors (36.5, to be actual) in Carolina’s run-heavy offense. On the season, McMillan sits seventh amongst receivers in targets (80), however he is simply exterior the highest 12 in catches (46) and yards (618). He is discovered the top zone solely twice (each in Week 6), which has him twenty second amongst huge receivers in fantasy factors (thirtieth PPG).
Maybe McMillan’s unhealthy TD luck will flip (his xTD is 4.2), however within the meantime, his utilization is simply sufficient to maintain him within the weekly WR3 combine. That features this week towards an Atlanta protection that has allowed the second-fewest catches to receivers this season and that held McMillan to 48 yards in Week 3.
Over/below: 40.9 (14th highest)
Win likelihood: Falcons 61% (eighth highest)
Projected rating: Payments 26, Buccaneers 24
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Prepare dinner III, Rachaad White, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy scoop: Cade Otton posted a career-high 12 targets and season highs in catches (9), yardage (82) and fantasy factors (17.2) final Sunday. After averaging 2.8 targets and a pair of.4 fantasy factors per recreation in the course of the first 4 video games of the season, Otton is averaging 7.4 targets and 12.2 factors per recreation over his previous 5 outings. The leap has, in fact, coincided with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and Bucky Irving lacking time with harm, which is analogous to the massive leap he made whereas Evans and Godwin have been sidelined in 2024. Tampa Bay’s offense hasn’t been fairly pretty much as good because it was final season, nevertheless, and Otton’s Week 10 efficiency marked his first top-10 fantasy outing of the season.
With Godwin and Evans nonetheless sidelined, Otton is on the TE1 radar, however he is not a super Week 11 begin towards a Payments protection that has allowed the fewest targets, catches, yards and fantasy factors to tight ends. Travis Kelce (12.6) is the lone tight finish who has reached 8.0 fantasy factors towards them this season.
Shadow Report: If Christian Benford returns from harm this week, he’ll be a candidate to shadow Egbuka. If he stays out, rookie Maxwell Hairston figures to journey with Egbuka. Benford has traveled with Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy factors within the recreation), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Chris Olave (11.0), Drake London (31.8), Tetairoa McMillan (16.9) and Travis Kelce (10.6) on their perimeter routes this season, and Hairston stepped in for Benford and shadowed Jaylen Waddle (17.7) final week. The six aforementioned shadowed huge receivers averaged 17.1 fantasy factors, with 4 of them reaching 15.9. We do not should be apprehensive about this matchup, so Egbuka stays a fringe WR1.
Over/below: 50.2 (4th highest)
Win likelihood: Payments 59% (eleventh highest)
Projected rating: Texans 26, Titans 14
Lineup lock: Nico Collins
Fantasy scoop: A big early-game deficit definitely helped his trigger, however Woody Marks is contemporary off a Week 10 effort by which he performed a career-high 78% of the Texans’ offensive snaps. Marks posted a powerful 14-63-1 dashing line and added 18 yards on a pair of catches. The rookie has now scored 15-plus fantasy factors in three of his previous six video games, although he is additionally posted a pair of sub-3.0-point duds in the course of the span (together with in Week 9).
The excellent news is that Marks has a terrific Week 11 matchup towards the identical protection that allowed him profession highs in touches (21), yards (119), TDs (two) and fantasy factors (27.9) again in Week 4. Marks could defer extra work to Nick Chubb this week, however he is the present lead again in Houston and may be thought of an RB2 possibility towards a protection that has allowed a league-high 14 touchdowns to RBs.
Shadow Report: Improve Houston’s huge receivers towards Tennessee’s patchwork cornerback room. With prime nook L’Jarius Sneed nonetheless on IR and Roger McCreary traded to the Rams, Jalyn Armour-Davis and Darrell Baker Jr. are manning the perimeter, with Marcus Harris within the slot. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most yards and ninth-most fantasy factors, in addition to the best catch charge (73%) and fourth-highest yards per goal (9.5) to receivers this season. Collins, Christian Kirk and ascending Jayden Higgins stand to profit.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Tennessee’s huge receivers towards Houston’s dominant go protection. The Texans have allowed the fifth-fewest catches, touchdowns (5) and fantasy factors (third-fewest factors to the perimeter) to the place. Solely three receivers have reached 13 fantasy factors towards them (and one was thanks, partly, to a return landing). Be aware that, whereas Derek Stingley Jr. did not shadow Calvin Ridley when these groups met in Week 4, he nonetheless lined him on half his routes and Ridley was held to five.0 fantasy factors whereas taking part in a restricted function. In actual fact, Titans receivers totaled 13.0 fantasy factors within the recreation. Tennessee’s go recreation is greatest averted most weeks, however particularly right here in Week 11.
Over/below: 40.3 (Lowest)
Win likelihood: Texans 88% (Highest)
Projected rating: Bears 26, Vikings 23
Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, Rome Odunze, Jordan Addison
Fantasy scoop: J.J. McCarthy was lastly requested to throw the ball round a bit final week (career-high 42 go makes an attempt after not clearing 25 throughout his first three video games), which led to a career-high 248 yards (he was below 160 within the first three outings). McCarthy’s effectivity wasn’t nice and he is averaging 6.4 yards per go try whereas finishing an unsightly 54% of his passes this season.
McCarthy guided Jalen Nailor to a profession day (5-124-1) on Sunday, however no different Viking reached 40 receiving yards. In actual fact, Nailor joins Jefferson (81 yards in Week 2) as the one Vikings who’ve reached 50 receiving yards in a recreation with McCarthy this season. Jefferson (12.6 fantasy PPG in 4 video games), T.J. Hockenson (4.7 PPG in 4 video games) and Addison (7.5 in two video games) have been severely hampered with McCarthy below middle, although maybe there’s some cause for hope this week towards a Chicago protection that has allowed 20 passing TDs (third most) this season. Talking of which …
Shadow Report: We’re upgrading the aforementioned Minnesota receivers towards a Chicago protection that’s nonetheless with out prime corners Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon. Tyrique Stevenson and Nahshon Wright have been working because the boundary corners, with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson not too long ago becoming a member of the staff and taking up as the first slot. The Bears have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy factors, second-most TDs (13) and the third-highest yards per goal (9.7) to receivers. Jefferson, Addison and deep sleeper Nailor (contemporary off an enormous recreation) get a lift, although Jefferson is the lone lineup lock.
Over/below: 49 (ninth highest)
Win likelihood: Bears 58% (twelfth highest)
Projected rating: Packers 27, Giants 23
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Wan’Dale Robinson
Fantasy scoop: Theo Johnson is contemporary off a powerful Week 10 outing by which he posted career-high marks in targets (eight), receptions (seven) and yardage (75). The second-year tight finish is as much as twelfth amongst tight ends in fantasy factors and he has now delivered a top-12 end in two straight and three of his previous 4. After averaging 3.0 targets and three.6 fantasy factors in three video games with Russell Wilson at quarterback and Malik Nabers totally wholesome, Johnson averaged 6.0 targets and 11.9 factors per recreation in seven outings with Jaxson Dart below middle and Nabers sidelined.
Johnson has struggled to generate yardage (18th amongst TEs with 314) however has made up for it with strong utilization close to the objective line (5 TDs and 4 finish zone targets each rank prime six on the place). Johnson is a bit over his skis within the TD division (2.8 xTD), however he is seeing sufficient work to hold on the TE1 fringe shifting ahead. He’d be a stronger Week 11 streamer if Dart (concussion) was wholesome, however he is nonetheless on the TE1 radar with Jameis Winston below middle.
Over/below: 49.7 (sixth highest)
Win likelihood: Packers 60% (ninth highest)
Projected rating: Steelers 28, Bengals 24
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Fantasy scoop: Week 11’s “streamer of the week'” is Aaron Rodgers. That may appear absurd contemplating Rodgers has posted consecutive duds, together with a 6.4-point effort towards the Chargers on Sunday, however this week’s matchup is just too good to disregard. The Bengals sit prime 5 in yards, TDs and fantasy factors to QBs. After holding Joe Flacco to 12.2 factors in Week 1, the Bengals have allowed eight consecutive QBs to succeed in 15 fantasy factors (22.2 common), together with a season-high 38.7 to Caleb Williams of their most up-to-date recreation.
Rodgers hasn’t been a constant fantasy possibility this season, however he has delivered in good matchups and that features the 4 TDs and 22.6 factors he scored when these groups performed in Week 7. Rodgers is a superb streaming possibility towards the protection permitting the best EPA towards the go.
Shadow Report: Count on DJ Turner to shadow DK Metcalf this week, as he did when these groups met in Week 7. In that recreation, Turner lined up towards Metcalf on 26 of his 33 routes, together with 26 of 27 on the perimeter. Metcalf was restricted to a few catches for 50 yards on 5 targets (which began a streak of 8.0 or fewer fantasy factors in three of his subsequent 4 video games spanning Weeks 7-10). Turner has been a vibrant spot on an in any other case horrendous Bengals protection, having allowed 8.2 fantasy PPG to the seven receivers he has shadowed.
Metcalf, in the meantime, is averaging 8.8 fantasy PPG throughout 4 video games he was shadowed. He ought to, in fact, be downgraded and has main bust potential. Be aware that Cincinnati has been extraordinarily beneficiant to gamers Turner hasn’t lined (worst defensive EPA), so all secondary ability gamers get an enormous increase this week.
Shadow Report: Improve the Cincinnati passing recreation towards a Pittsburgh protection that has allowed essentially the most fantasy factors to huge receivers this season, together with the sixth most to the perimeter and third most to the slot. The Steelers have surrendered essentially the most targets, catches and yards to the place, and 6 receivers have reached 20 factors towards them. That features Michael Pittman Jr. and Ladd McConkey over the previous two weeks, in addition to each Chase (38.1) and Higgins (21.6) when these groups met in Week 7.
Over/below: 52.9 (2nd highest)
Win likelihood: Steelers 64% (seventh highest)
Projected rating: Chargers 26, Jaguars 21
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Travis Etienne Jr., Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston
Fantasy scoop: Jakobi Meyers made his Jaguars debut in Week 10 and performed simply 23 of 55 snaps. That put him nicely behind Parker Washington (47 snaps) and Tim Patrick (38), with Dyami Brown (21) simply behind. And that was with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter sidelined.
Meyers, who was focused thrice, is a candidate for a bigger workload as he learns the offense, however he cannot be trusted in fantasy lineups till he is seeing extra work. If Thomas is again this week, he is a WR3, whereas Washington, who has scored 17-plus fantasy factors in consecutive video games, can be a deep-league flex possibility and Meyers would belong on benches. If Thomas stays out, Washington is a WR3 and Meyers a flex.
Shadow Report: A part of the rationale we’re not too excessive on Jacksonville’s receivers is the robust matchup towards a Chargers protection that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy factors to receivers, together with the fewest to the perimeter and fourth fewest to the slot. Los Angeles has allowed the third-fewest yards and TDs (5) to receivers, in addition to the second-lowest catch charge (56%) and third-lowest yards per goal (6.8).
Over/below: 47.3 (eleventh highest)
Win likelihood: Chargers 66% (fifth highest)
Projected rating: Rams 27, Seahawks 23
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
Fantasy scoop: Rashid Shaheed made his Seattle debut on Sunday and performed 18 of 59 snaps. The low utilization was primarily a product of recreation script, as Seattle constructed a large early lead and handed solely 13 occasions within the recreation. Shaheed ran a route on eight of these performs, which trailed solely Smith-Njigba (11) and Cooper Kupp (9) for many on the staff.
The excellent news is that Shaheed was instantly a major piece of the passing recreation, however the unhealthy information is the fast reminder that he is becoming a member of an especially low-volume go assault (Sam Darnold is averaging 25.3 go makes an attempt per recreation, whereas the Saints averaged 35.0 per recreation throughout Weeks 1-9 whereas Shaheed was on the roster). Shaheed is a powerful wager for a lift in quantity in a greater recreation script towards the Rams this week, however he stays greatest valued as a growth/bust flex flier.
Over/below: 50.1 (fifth highest)
Win likelihood: Rams 65% (sixth highest)
Projected rating: 49ers 25, Cardinals 25
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, Trey McBride, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: One quarterback has completed prime 12 in fantasy factors in every of his previous 4 video games: Jacoby Brissett. The veteran passer has delivered precisely two passing TDs and 19-plus fantasy factors in all 4 begins, whereas avoiding turnovers (one INT) and including some worth along with his legs (80 yards and one TD in the course of the stretch).
Brissett benefited vastly from rubbish time throughout final week’s 22-point loss to Seattle, however he is positioned with a superb Week 11 matchup towards a 49ers protection that has allowed the fourth-highest EPA towards the go. San Francisco has allowed 19 passing TDs (seventh most), whereas producing solely 12 sacks (fewest) and one INT (second fewest). Each Jaxson Dart (27.2) and Matthew Stafford (26.9) have produced top-5 fantasy outings towards the Niners over the previous two weeks. The absence of Marvin Harrison Jr. is detrimental, however Brissett remains to be on the streaming radar this week.
Over/below: 49.5 (seventh highest)
Win likelihood: 49ers 50% (Lowest)
Projected rating: Ravens 24, Browns 19
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Quinshon Judkins, Zay Flowers
Fantasy scoop: Jerry Jeudy entered the Browns’ Week 9 bye with zero TDs or video games with greater than 11.6 fantasy factors. He now has one in all every after delivering a 6-78-1 receiving line (all three are season highs) on 12 targets in Week 10. The robust exhibiting is cause for some optimism, particularly contemplating that he has now seen 12-plus targets in two of his previous three video games and his 21% goal share on the season is not too far off his career-high 23% mark when he completed sixth in yards and twelfth in fantasy factors amongst WRs final season.
Jeudy’s large recreation was considerably predictable towards a Sauce Gardner-less Jets protection, however, by the numbers, the Browns have the simplest rest-of-season schedule for receivers. Jeudy is again on the WR3/flex radar this week towards a Baltimore protection that slowed Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison however allowed 23.4 factors to Jalen Nailor in Week 10.
Over/below: 42.4 (thirteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Ravens 66% (4th highest)
Projected rating: Chiefs 24, Broncos 22
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: Week 17 of the 2022 season. That is the final time Mahomes reached 18.0 fantasy factors in a recreation towards the rival Broncos. Mahomes has confronted Denver thrice over the previous two seasons and has a complete of two TDs and three INTs in these video games, averaging 13.2 fantasy PPG in the course of the span. After all, the Chiefs offense is the most effective it has been since previous to 2022, so whereas Mahomes is not the high-end lineup lock that he often is, he stays a back-end beginning possibility. Be aware that Denver has allowed the fewest passing TDs (eight) and the second-fewest fantasy factors to QBs this season. Solely three QBs have reached 15 fantasy factors towards the Broncos.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Denver’s huge receivers towards a Chiefs protection that has allowed the second-fewest yards and sixth-fewest fantasy factors to receivers this season, in addition to the fewest factors over the previous eight weeks. Solely three receivers have reached 15 fantasy factors towards the Chiefs this season. Sutton (held under 11 fantasy factors in 4 of his previous 5), Franklin (has out-targeted Sutton in 4 straight and on the season), Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims Jr. can have their fingers full towards a Kansas Metropolis cornerback rotation headlined by Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
Over/below: 45.4 (twelfth highest)
Win likelihood: Chiefs 57% (thirteenth highest)
Projected rating: Eagles 27, Lions 26
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Sam LaPorta, Dallas Goedert
Fantasy scoop: Detroit appears to have unlocked Jameson Williams throughout its Week 8 bye. In his first seven video games of the season, Williams put collectively two large video games (18.8 and 18.6 factors) however was held under 7.0 factors within the different 5. In two video games because the bye, Williams has posted receiving traces of 4-66-1 and 6-119-1, which has allowed 16-plus fantasy factors in each. Williams’ 18.8% goal share in the course of the two video games is extra aligned along with his 18.5% mark from 2024 and a step up from his 15.4% share throughout Weeks 1-7.
Williams is much from out of the clear, in fact, and he is arrange with a troublesome Week 11 matchup towards an Eagles protection that has confronted the sixth-most WR targets, however that has allowed solely 4 TDs (second fewest) to the place. No receiver has reached 23.0 factors towards them in a recreation this season. Williams ought to see loads of Quinyon Mitchell and is greatest seen as a WR3/flex.
Over/below: 53 (Highest)
Win likelihood: Eagles 53% (14th highest)
Projected rating: Cowboys 27, Raiders 22
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Brock Bowers, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: Of their first recreation after buying and selling Jakobi Meyers, the Raiders’ WR utilization was as follows: Tre Tucker had 33 routes and three targets, Tyler Lockett 26 routes and 6 targets, Dont’e Thornton Jr. 20 routes and two targets, Jack Bech seven routes and one goal, and Alex Bachman two routes and 0 targets. Granted they have been coping with a terrific Denver protection, however the group mixed for 16.3 fantasy factors, with not one of the 5 reaching 45 yards or 10 factors.
That is going to be a state of affairs greatest averted shifting ahead, although there’s some sleeper attraction this week towards a Dallas protection that, whereas more healthy and improved in the course of the bye, has nonetheless allowed essentially the most TDs (16) and second-most fantasy factors to receivers this season. Tucker is the lone Raiders receiver value contemplating in your flex.
Over/below: 48.3 (tenth highest)
Win likelihood: Cowboys 68% (third highest)