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Making robust lineup choices every week could be the most difficult a part of the fantasy soccer course of. Once you’re torn between two related gamers and easily do not know which to begin, begin the participant with the superior matchup.
Ah, however precisely how does one decide the very best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings present a schedule-independent technique to guage positional matchups every week, rating all 32 opposing defenses so as of most to least favorable for opposing gamers in any respect 4 talent positions (quarterback, working again, extensive receiver and tight finish). As a substitute of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed knowledge to indicate how every protection fared relative to the issue of the schedule it has confronted. This gives a fairer method to judging the standard of particular person matchups.
For the primary three weeks, these rankings are fully my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I contemplate that matchup, although 2024 full-season knowledge is supplied to present you one other snapshot into the energy of that exact matchup.
“Adj. FPA,” or Adjusted Fantasy Factors Allowed, displays how far above or beneath gamers’ weekly PPR fantasy level averages that protection held opponents at that place. A constructive quantity implies that the matchup is favorable. A unfavourable quantity means it’s unfavorable. Moreover, do not forget that groups usually use a number of working backs and extensive receivers in a recreation, and these plus/minus averages cowl all of a group’s personnel at that place.
Lastly, a caveat: Matchups are solely one ingredient in my rankings system. Not each favorable matchup needs to be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup prevented. If you’d like my — and ESPN fantasy employees’s — most full supply for whom to begin and sit every week, seek the advice of our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups spotlight: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (at Miami Dolphins). Issues could not have gone a lot worse for the Dolphins than they did in Week 1, and within the course of, they made Daniel Jones appear to be a fantasy famous person (29.48 fantasy factors). The Dolphins had one sack, six quarterback pressures and an 87.5 Whole QBR on protection, all of which ranked sixth or worse for the week, and their beginning cornerbacks, Storm Duck and Jack Jones, rated within the thirteenth percentile or worse in Goal EPA (Estimated Factors Added). That units Maye, who had an efficient if unspectacular Week 1, up for a doubtlessly large day on the highway. He brings a level of mobility that needs to be notably engaging on this matchup, particularly after Jones scored twice on the bottom in opposition to this protection.
Others to love: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Cincinnati Bengals); Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (at Las Vegas Raiders).
Matchup to keep away from: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Houston Texans). Although he delivered his fantasy managers 22.58 fantasy factors in Week 1, Mayfield’s efficiency was hardly the prettiest. He completed the week within the backside 10 on the place in completion proportion (53.1%) and yards per try (5.2), regardless of going through what was extensively marketed to be a subpar protection within the Atlanta Falcons. Now Mayfield faces the Texans, regarded by many as one of many league’s greatest defenses. One of many issues the Texans do greatest is strain the passer, having led the league in move rush win price in 2024 (48.7%), and Mayfield had a large disparity in stats when going through strain final season (21.8 QBR, in contrast with 71.4 when not pressured).
Working backs
Matchups spotlight: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Carolina Panthers). The Panthers’ shoddy run protection fueled Travis Etienne Jr.’s Week 1 rebound, because the fourth-year working again had a league-leading 69 dashing yards over expectation, per Subsequent Gen Stats, and 4 explosive runs (10-plus yards gained) in an 18.6-point efficiency. Now the Panthers face Conner, who badly wants a smooth matchup like this one after he averaged solely 3.3 yards per carry whereas his backup, Trey Benson, almost doubled his yardage whole regardless of taking part in solely 34% of the offensive snaps (Conner performed 64%). The Panthers will even be with out DE Tershawn Wharton, out two to 4 weeks with a hamstring harm, additional strengthening the matchup for the Cardinals working backs.
Others to love: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams (at Tennessee Titans); Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (at Dallas Cowboys).
Matchup to keep away from: D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (at Detroit Lions). He has a tricky go of it on the schedule entrance to start this season, going through each of the intra-division elite run defenses within the Minnesota Vikings (9.5 FPTS on Monday evening) and now the Lions. Swift was one of many opening week’s extra disappointing performers, dashing for 20 yards beneath expectation and taking solely three of his 17 carries for greater than 5 yards, and he was equally disappointing in opposition to his former group in 2024, totaling solely 17.7 fantasy factors in two conferences. The Lions might need surrendered a dashing landing to Josh Jacobs in Week 1, however they in any other case held Inexperienced Bay Packers working backs to three.4 yards per carry.
Huge receivers
Matchups spotlight: Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers (at New Orleans Saints). The group’s move catchers have been hit arduous by accidents to date, with George Kittle (hamstring) and Brandon Aiyuk (knee) sidelined via not less than Week 5 and Jauan Jennings (shoulder) in query for this week after leaving the season opener within the fourth quarter. Pearsall, who led the group in routes (32), receiving yards (108) and common depth of goal (19.8 yards from the road of scrimmage) in Week 1, might be in for a leading-man position. That the matchup stacks up this favorably for him, as Saints beginning CBs Kool-Help McKinstry and Isaac Yiadom surrendered a mixed 23.4 fantasy factors as the closest defender in protection final week, solely strengthens Pearsall’s sleeper case.
Others to love: Travis Hunter, Jaguars (at Bengals); Stefon Diggs, Patriots (at Dolphins); Calvin Ridley, Titans (vs. Rams).
Matchup to keep away from: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (at Indianapolis Colts). Dismiss the Colts’ Week 1 defensive success as fully the product of a depressing all-around recreation by the Dolphins if you want, however keep in mind that this protection was higher than common in opposition to opposing WR1s in 2024 (-0.01 Adjusted Fantasy Factors Added). CB Xavien Howard, who joined the group in August, had the fifth-best Goal EPA amongst cornerbacks with not less than 20 protection snaps, and safeties Cam Bynum and Nick Cross earned elite grades, in Week 1. Sutton, who was actually the one constructive observe from the Broncos’ opening-week receiving recreation, is in for a tricky task.
Tight ends
Matchups spotlight: Hunter Henry, Patriots (at Dolphins). Tyler Warren loved a breakthrough recreation in opposition to the reeling Dolphins in Week 1, turning 9 targets into 14.9 fantasy factors, whereas fellow Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox added a 20-yard, second-quarter catch that helped arrange the group’s second landing. That got here on the heels of a 2024 season by which the Dolphins had been the second-worst schedule adjusted protection in opposition to the place over the ultimate eight weeks (3.6 Adjusted FPA). Henry, who tied for a team-leading eight targets and completed second with 66 receiving yards final week, affords sufficient promise to be a TE1 contemplating the matchup.
Matchup to keep away from: Tyler Warren, Colts (vs. Broncos). Talking of Warren, he and his Colts could not have far more night-and-day distinction in Weeks 1 and a pair of matchups. The Broncos had been the opening-week leaders in fantasy factors scored by the protection (16), Defensive Anticipated Factors Added (20.2) and yards allowed per play (2.4). Daniel Jones’ Week 1 efficiency was one to rejoice, however he is in for a letdown this week, and that is positive to have an opposed impression on Warren’s numbers as properly.
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