Whichever two teams emerge from the NBA’s conference finals will produce a Finals matchup we’ve never seen before. But not all of them are created equal.
As the conference finals heat up heading into Friday’s Game 2 between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers (8 p.m. ET, TNT) and Saturday’s Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), let’s take a closer look at the potential Finals meetings the league’s four remaining teams could create to see which might be the most compelling from a variety of standpoints. Those include connections between the two teams, player matchups and style of play.
That’s inevitably a subjective process, but some combinations of the four star guards leading the remaining teams (Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, newly anointed MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton) carry more weight from a narrative standpoint.
Still, the top choice is obvious because of the unique potential of an NBA Finals meeting between two teams (the Timberwolves and Knicks) that remade their starting fives with a daring trade on the eve of training camp. Let’s break down the Wolves-Knicks storylines and all four possible series.
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Top storyline: Determining the trade winner on the court
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Additional storylines: Tom Thibodeau revenge series, star guards vs. wing stoppers
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Home-court advantage: Knicks
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Regular-season series: Tied (1-1)
There’s never been an NBA Finals quite like a potential Minnesota-New York matchup. Dan Feldman noted this week in the “Dunc’d On Basketball” NBA podcast’s Daily Duncs newsletter that not since 1977 have teams (in that case the Denver Nuggets and Seattle SuperSonics, both in the West) swapped starters and then both made the conference finals, let alone the Finals.
Even that trade — Paul Silas and Marvin Webster to Seattle for Bob Wilkerson — paled in comparison to the magnitude of the Knicks and Timberwolves swapping All-Stars.
As for Finals teams trading players with each other, it’s almost never happened since that Sonics-Nuggets trade. Counting the previous offseason, reserve Torrey Craig going from the Milwaukee Bucks to the Phoenix Suns at the 2021 trade deadline was the first example I could find in that span. The other sent Grant Williams from the Boston Celtics to the Dallas Mavericks the summer before they met in last year’s Finals. By that point, Williams had already moved on again to the Charlotte Hornets.
To be clear, if these teams make the Finals, they’ll both have won the trade regardless of the outcome. The deal has worked out as both hoped: Karl-Anthony Towns supercharged the New York offense, while Julius Randle has been an ideal fit in Minnesota and Donte DiVincenzo has supplied necessary perimeter depth despite a cold-shooting playoff run.
A Knicks-Wolves Finals would also pit Thibodeau against his former team. Minnesota hired Thibodeau in the dual role of coach and president of basketball operations hoping to get to this point, but his tenure resulted in a single first-round exit before being scuttled by Jimmy Butler’s trade request.
On the court, there are plenty of compelling matchups. New York would have to figure out how to best deploy OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart against Randle and Anthony Edwards, both of whom rely on strength more than the lithe Bridges. At the other end, Minnesota has plenty of options to defend Jalen Brunson and would probably stash Rudy Gobert on the light-shooting Hart to leave him free to roam defensively.
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Top storyline: Matchup of top young American guards
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Additional storylines: Unlikely finalists, Mike Conley’s homecoming
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Home-court advantage: Pacers
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Regular-season series: Pacers (2-0)
Edwards vs. Haliburton would be all sorts of fun. Of the five American guards who made last season’s All-NBA teams (alongside Canada’s Gilgeous-Alexander and Slovenia’s Luka Doncic), they’re the lone two who are currently under age 28. Haliburton is a long shot to repeat this year after a slow first half that cost him an All-Star trip, but he has played at an elite level during the playoffs. Beyond their skills, Edwards and Haliburton are both showmen with a sense of the moment. A Finals matchup would cement both among the top young Americans in an increasingly international league.
Indiana and Minnesota would be the all-time “nobody believed in us” NBA championship series. There has never been a Finals without a top-three seed from either conference — all three other potential matchups would include one — and the Pacers’ .610 win percentage would be the worst for a team with home court in the Finals since 1978.
Lastly, the Timberwolves facing Indiana in the finals would produce a homecoming for the 37-year-old Conley, who played at Lawrence North High School 20 minutes northeast of Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Conley’s 105 career playoff games (and counting) are among the most ever for a player without reaching the Finals. Conley lost in the conference finals with the Memphis Grizzlies in 2013 and with Minnesota last year, and finally breaking through would be a great story.
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Top storyline: Battle of international point guards
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Additional storylines: SGA’s Canadian guard gauntlet, top remaining offense vs. top defense
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Home-court advantage: Thunder
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Regular-season series: Thunder (2-0)
If Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Haliburton feels familiar, you might have watched the third-place game in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. Gilgeous-Alexander had 31 points and 12 assists as Canada came back to beat a USA team that started Haliburton (six points, seven assists) opposite him at point guard. Given his age, Haliburton is likely Team USA’s long-term starter at the position — meaning more clashes with Gilgeous-Alexander on the world stage.
Although Gilgeous-Alexander is undoubtedly the better player, Haliburton is at the controls of the top remaining offense in the playoffs. Indiana has averaged 118.5 points per 100 possessions thus far, more than three points per 100 better than Oklahoma City. That would be tested against the Thunder’s defense, which is allowing more than seven fewer points per 100 possessions than anyone else.
Specifically, there are a couple of matchups where unstoppable force meets immovable object. The Pacers boast the league’s third-best turnover rate in both the regular season and playoffs, which is unlikely to continue against the top team in forcing turnovers. Additionally, Indiana has shot 41% on 3s so far in the playoffs. Oklahoma City opponents have shot just 31% from deep in the playoffs after a league-low 34% during the regular season, which might make the Thunder the rare defense that can consistently affect opponent accuracy.
Gilgeous-Alexander will have his national teammate Luguentz Dort alongside him in the backcourt, but he’d be facing a Canadian guard for the third consecutive round. After SGA defeated Jamal Murray and the Denver Nuggets in the conference semifinals and cousin Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s Timberwolves in the conference finals, Pacers wing Andrew Nembhard would presumably defend Gilgeous-Alexander at times. Nembhard did not play for Canada in the most recent World Cup but averaged 8.3 points per game in three games off the bench in the Olympics.
4. Thunder vs. Knicks
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Top storyline: Brunson vs. OKC’s defense
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Additional storylines: Isaiah Hartenstein’s return
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Home-court advantage: Thunder
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Regular-season series: Thunder (2-0)
No team in the NBA seems better equipped to guard Brunson than the Thunder, who could throw a rotating series of on-ball stoppers against him. Dort would probably get the call when both teams had their starters on the court, followed by the pressure of Cason Wallace, with Alex Caruso’s havoc creation as another option.
Brunson averaged 24.5 points per game in two meetings with Oklahoma City this season, both losses a week apart in January. But his .534 true shooting percentage in those games was his third worst against any opponent he faced multiple times this season.
The Thunder are also set up to slow Towns. Hartenstein, facing his former team, would perhaps start the game on Towns in order to free Chet Holmgren to roam. And when Oklahoma City goes small, Holmgren can chase Towns around the perimeter.
Down the stretch, we’d probably see Caruso on Towns after the success he enjoyed defending Nikola Jokic in Game 7 of the Thunder’s conference semifinal series against Denver.
It’s hard to call this a revenge series for Hartenstein, who boosted his value in two years in New York to the point where the Knicks couldn’t realistically re-sign him this summer. Still, his return is an interesting reminder of how much New York has changed from last season. Back then, Hartenstein was an indispensable playoff contributor, averaging nearly 30 minutes per game in the Knicks’ two playoff series.
