With momentum on his aspect, can Carlos Alcaraz defend his French Open crown — or will Jannik Sinner win the title as he returns from a doping ban? Might Novak Djokovic put collectively a miracle match to win a record-breaking twenty fifth Grand Slam title?
Final 12 months’s ladies’s champion, Iga Swiatek, has had a nightmare of a season. Will Aryna Sabalenka or Coco Gauff upset her in Paris to take their first Roland Garros title?
Our specialists weigh in because the French Open begins Sunday.
How do you assume Djokovic will fare right here?
Invoice Connelly: In case you consider that rhythm issues at all, it is onerous to be optimistic. Since he received harm on the Australian Open, he is 7-5 general, and 5 of these wins got here in a single match (Miami). He was 0-2 on clay, with zero units gained, earlier than heading to Geneva this week, and the truth that he is enjoying one other match the week earlier than a Slam in any respect tells you the way determined he was to search out some rhythm and confidence.
That stated, his draw is gorgeous, and, nicely, he did nonetheless make the Australian Open semifinals and win all 10 matches he was truly capable of play at Roland Garros final 12 months (minus his withdrawal in opposition to Casper Ruud within the French Open quarterfinals). If he is capable of enhance his type in each Geneva and the early rounds at Roland Garros, then it isn’t onerous to see him at the least reaching the quarterfinals. And if potential quarterfinal opponent Alexander Zverev’s personal type does not enhance, maybe Djokovic may go even additional than that, although a semifinal in opposition to Sinner very a lot looks like a bridge too far.
D’Arcy Maine: The $2.87 million query! It is extremely difficult — maybe unattainable — to know what to anticipate from Djokovic at this level. When at his finest, he is nonetheless a dominant pressure, however that degree appears to be more and more uncommon and the probability of him with the ability to constantly play at a excessive type for a number of matches in a row in opposition to prime opponents is slim. He has struggled on clay this season and hadn’t gained consecutive matches till 250-level Geneva this week. That is not precisely the momentum one desires to reach to Paris with.
Nonetheless, as Invoice talked about, Djokovic’s draw, or at the least the primary a number of matches, are favorable. And if anybody can play themselves into competition and type at a Slam, it needs to be Djokovic. Whereas I actually do not depend him among the many top-tier favorites — that may be reserved completely for Alcaraz and Sinner in the mean time — I am unable to precisely depend him out of competition both. At this level, I am unsure any end result — from an early exit to profitable all of it — would completely shock me, however I believe the quarterfinals looks like a protected reply.
Tom Hamilton: That is all about momentum, and the draw has opened issues up splendidly for him. He is maybe the very best within the sport for clicking into his profitable mindset and given his current type — particularly on clay — he’ll want to search out that internal dedication once more which has led him to such unimaginable feats within the sport. If he performs his approach in, then he’ll get extra harmful because the matches construct. If the draw goes as anticipated, then he ought to beat Zverev within the quarterfinals after which it is down as to whether he can discover the Djokovic of previous for a possible semifinal in opposition to Sinner. I believe he’ll get to the ultimate 4.
Simon Cambers: Based mostly on his type this 12 months, it’s virtually unattainable to know. He was good in Australia earlier than he received injured, and performed nicely in Miami, however in any other case has struggled badly. It was fascinating speaking to him in Monte Carlo — he made no secret that it is turning into an increasing number of tough to get motivated. Nonetheless, it is a Grand Slam, and which means he shouldn’t have any motivational points. He additionally has an excellent early draw that ought to permit him to work his approach into the match.
I do not see him profitable this — it needs to be remembered that as nice as he’s, he’s now 38 and it simply does not get any simpler. There are too many different gamers who can bother him, and he would possibly simply develop into too fatigued by the point he will get to the quarters. But when he does make it by way of Week 1 with out an excessive amount of effort, then he can be massively harmful, as he desires that twenty fifth slam title.
With Swiatek’s current struggles, what can she do to win a fourth straight title?
Connelly: She completely can. Even in such a irritating 12 months, she’s nonetheless 27-9 in 2025, and he or she’s 27-3 in opposition to gamers not named Gauff, Mirra Andreeva or, hilariously, Jelena Ostapenko. The truth that she was overwhelmed so totally in her previous two clay-court tournaments — 6-1, 6-1 to Gauff in Madrid; 6-1, 7-5 to Danielle Collins in Rome — actually does not lend confidence, and her draw is totally brutal.
Swiatek might need to face Marta Kostyuk (6-2 on clay this 12 months, with each losses to Sabalenka) within the third spherical and doubtlessly both Elena Rybakina (in opposition to whom she’s 4-4 all time, 0-2 on clay) or her forever-foil, Ostapenko (in opposition to whom she’s 0-6) within the fourth. If she will get previous that, she ought to face final 12 months’s runner-up, Jasmine Paolini, within the quarterfinals simply to succeed in No. 1 seed Sabalenka within the semis. And if she will get previous that, both Andreeva or Gauff may await within the finals. If she wins her fifth French Open (and retains tempo with Rafael Nadal in that regard), she’ll most actually have earned it.
Maine: Swiatek actually can win once more, however she has proven simply how susceptible and beatable she is in the course of the lead-in occasions. Clearly her abilities and clay acumen have not disappeared, however she goes to want to rediscover her confidence — and quick — and never let the stress of her earlier triumphs on the match overwhelm her.
Her draw is extremely difficult, however her opening two rounds (in opposition to Rebecca Sramkova after which doubtlessly Emma Raducanu, whom she routed 6-1, 6-0 of their final assembly on the Australian Open) may assist together with her self-belief and bolster her in opposition to some seemingly very powerful opponents. It is onerous to see Swiatek lastly getting her first-ever defeat over Ostapenko within the fourth spherical at this level in the event that they have been to satisfy, but when she have been to try this, and show to herself she will do it and remind herself of what she’s succesful, that would flip every little thing round.
Hamilton: It is a difficult draw for Swiatek and her type does not provide you with many causes for optimism. However Roland Garros is her second residence and he or she finds a option to lock herself into this zone the place she is totally unplayable. Keep in mind final 12 months when she was so almost knocked out in opposition to Naomi Osaka? Properly she discovered a option to get herself again into that contest and every week or so later, she was lifting the trophy for the fourth time.
That is about ignoring noise and stress and specializing in what makes her unbeatable on clay (and discovering a option to defeat Ostapenko). If anybody can string collectively a fortnight’s price of performances, then it is her.
Cambers: The very first thing Swiatek must do is take a breath and remind herself that she has gained the French Open 4 occasions. It has been onerous to observe her the previous few months, wanting so harassed on court docket. A few of that could be hangover from her one-month suspension. Her aura has positively disappeared, for now. When she is examined, it is virtually a case of simply ready for her to unravel.
It will not assist her mindset to see her arch nemesis, Ostapenko, in her part of the draw, although. Ostapenko has overwhelmed her six occasions out of six, and in the event that they meet in Spherical 4, it will likely be a large check of Swiatek’s psychological power. It may not be straightforward to get that far, both, with Raducanu and Kostyuk in her part. Swiatek wants a few good wins to settle, and if she does, then her confidence will develop. On type, it is asking so much for her to win the title for a fifth time, however it would possibly take only one good match, and even one thing in a person match, for her to flip the change.
Which American will advance the furthest in Paris?
Connelly: It’s a must to begin with Gauff. She’s 19-4 in her previous 4 French Opens, and he or she reached the semis final 12 months and the finals in 2022. Andreeva does lurk on her aspect of the draw, however Sabalenka, Swiatek and Paolini are all on the opposite aspect. She’s the No. 3 betting favourite, per ESPN BET, and with Sabalenka and Swiatek assembly in a hypothetical semifinal, you can say she has a case to be No. 2.
On the boys’s aspect, give me Tommy Paul. His draw is just not extremely conducive to a run — he would possibly face two-time runner-up Ruud within the fourth spherical and Alcaraz within the quarters — however I believe he is the very best American clay-courter among the many males in the mean time, and Taylor Fritz’s draw is not considerably higher. Sebastian Korda did attain the fourth spherical in Paris at age 20 in 2020, however he is simply 5-4 at Roland Garros since, and he is a reasonably dismal 3-4 on clay this 12 months. So I am going to say Paul.
Maine: It actually looks as if Gauff is the clear reply. Along with her previous success on the match, she has been enjoying arguably the very best clay tennis of her profession this season. She reached the ultimate in Madrid, recording a dominant 6-1, 6-1 win over Swiatek within the semis and a straight-sets victory over Andreeva within the quarters, after which reached the ultimate in Rome. Whereas she did not get the trophy there both, she made an announcement with a gutsy, marathon victory over Zheng Qinwen in a semifinal conflict that lasted over three-and-a-half hours.
Now ranked No. 2, Gauff brings momentum and confidence — and a starvation for extra — to Paris. Reigning Australian Open champion (and fellow American) Madison Keys could possibly be a possible quarterfinal opponent, and Gauff may face Andreeva or countrywoman Jessica Pegula within the semis, however a remaining look appears nicely inside attain given how nicely she has been enjoying as of late.
On the boys’s aspect, Paul actually had a formidable run in Rome, and does have a repossessed truck to combat for in any case, however it’s onerous to see him getting previous the opponents Invoice talked about. Nonetheless, I am unsure one other American will get additional than him. Though you by no means know, maybe we’d get extra Cinderella runs like we noticed in Melbourne from Learner Tien (who faces Zverev within the first spherical) and Alex Michelsen (who will play a qualifier).
Hamilton: Properly everybody’s going for Gauff, so I am going to must say … the identical. I’ve her all the way down to make a deep run and he or she may nicely develop into the primary American lady to win the competitors since Serena Williams in 2015. Gauff’s come so shut prior to now, and has developed an all-court recreation. She has these two finals to her identify on clay this 12 months and although she fell to Sabalenka in Madrid and Paolini in Rome, she’s constructing type properly forward of Roland Garros.
On the boys’s aspect, Paul has that unlucky draw the place he’ll seemingly run into Ruud and Alcaraz. Ruud will seemingly get previous him there. Elsewhere, Korda’s struggling for type on clay, Tiafoe’s by no means received previous the third spherical, and Fritz’s finest end is the fourth spherical, so it is onerous to see anybody ending the 26-year await an American champion on the boys’s aspect at Roland Garros.
Cambers: Gauff is the apparent choose on the ladies’s aspect, and he or she appears to have a simple path to the quarterfinals. Gauff has performed good, constant tennis this clay-court season and has proven exceptional resistance, provided that her serve and forehand stay technically susceptible when her confidence is just not there. Peyton Stearns was very good in Rome, and if she will get going, she could possibly be genuinely onerous to cease. She does have Zheng as a doable third-round opponent, although, which may cease her in her tracks. Gauff is most probably.
On the boys’s aspect, the Individuals have a tricky draw all spherical, with most of them in sections with some massive names. Paul ought to make the final 16, however Ruud could possibly be ready for him there; Ben Shelton has a recreation that could possibly be good on clay however has Alcaraz in the way in which. Fritz has a tricky first-rounder, but when he will get previous Daniel Altmaier, he could possibly be the one. Korda and Frances Tiafoe are in the identical quarter. Even when clay is just not his finest floor, Fritz may emerge as the very best likelihood.
Is that this probably the most wide-open French Open in current historical past? Which participant may shock within the subsequent two weeks?
Connelly: With Swiatek and Djokovic each battling confidence and type, you’ll be able to actually make the case for one thing large open. However for those who squint excellent, it certain looks as if we could possibly be cruising to a pair of 1-versus-2 finals (Sinner vs. Alcaraz, Sabalenka vs. Gauff). The truth that nobody may reap the benefits of Sinner’s monthslong absence to make a reputation for themselves (and even take his No. 1 rating) was, to me, a reasonably large indictment of the depth on the boys’s aspect, and it might take a reasonably large upset to maintain us from Sinner-Alcaraz. (Not that I’d complain about lastly getting a Sinner-Alcaraz Slam remaining.)
The ladies’s aspect would not want many upsets to bust large open, nevertheless. Depth is immense proper now, and past Sabalenka, Gauff and Swiatek, you can also make a reasonably credible case for Andreeva, Paolini, 2024 Olympic gold medalist Zheng, 2023 French Open finalist Karolina Muchova, an in-form veteran akin to Elina Svitolina or, dare I dream, Naomi Osaka. Sabalenka might need to get previous Collins, Amanda Anisimova (who beat her in Toronto final 12 months) and Zheng (who simply beat her in Rome) to get to Paolini or Swiatek within the semis! There are obstacles all over the place you look within the ladies’s draw.
Maine: On the ladies’s aspect, I believe it appears extra large open than it has since Swiatek has emerged as the dominant pressure on the floor. However with that stated, I would not be stunned by deep runs, or perhaps a title, from quite a few gamers. I believe Keys served as a reminder to many who they, too, have been able to profitable Slams, and it will likely be fascinating to see the residual influence of that in Paris. Paolini reached the ultimate final 12 months and is coming off an unimaginable run in Rome, profitable each the singles and doubles titles. Why not her, and why not now?
As for the boys, I am with Invoice. It is a two-way battle between Sinner and Alcaraz. Mixed, they’ve gained the previous 5 main titles, and I do not see that pattern stopping now. Since you requested so properly, I am going to say No. 14 seed Arthur Fils has the (ever-so-slight) likelihood to tug off a shock upset within the fourth spherical in opposition to Sinner. With the house crowd behind him, and a few regular clay outcomes this season (together with a semifinal look in Barcelona and the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo), he may discover some magic and thrill the French crowd. After which issues would actually get fascinating.
Hamilton: So it is fairly open, however not probably the most open in historical past. On the ladies’s aspect, Swiatek’s type is shaky, however she’s nonetheless in all probability favourite. But when she does not win, then I believe Paolini may find yourself lifting her first Grand Slam title, recent from her triumph in Rome. Then you might have the rising pressure of Andreeva, the brilliance of Gauff and the others who know the right way to win large matches on clay like Sabalenka and Zheng. However I nonetheless assume it’s going to find yourself being a Swiatek-dominated match.
On the boys’s aspect, it might be nice to see an Alcaraz-Sinner remaining, however I am tipping — and have completed for a protracted whereas — Draper to do one thing particular at Roland Garros. The Brit is in good type and has managed to discover a option to make himself extra sturdy. If it comes collectively for him, he can win the entire thing.
However it appears predestined for a match-up between Alcaraz and Sinner, with Alcaraz profitable. Although, dare we dream, at some point, it might be nice to see a French participant win a title once more there.
Cambers: I do not assume it is probably the most open in historical past. I’ve a protracted reminiscence, and B.R. (Earlier than Rafa) nothing was assured on the boys’s aspect, as Gaston Gaudio would possibly remind us. Alcaraz has the very best type and is the defending champion, so he deserves to be favourite, particularly after beating the returning Sinner within the Rome remaining. Sinner additionally seemed good in Rome, and if he finds something like the shape he did in opposition to Ruud there, then he can be very onerous to cease. Behind them, Ruud, Zverev and Djokovic could have an opportunity, whereas Jack Draper is now a real title risk on each floor. It could be a shock ought to one in all Alcaraz or Sinner not win the title.
The ladies’s title, although, could be very open, not least as a result of Sabalenka has not fairly matched her hard-court type on clay this spring. With Swiatek enormously susceptible — on current type — the door is open for somebody unheralded to return by way of, and it might be no shock ought to somebody from outdoors the highest 10 attain the semis and possibly additional. Gauff can be there or thereabouts, however Paolini could possibly be the one, driving excessive on confidence after her good Rome.
Who’s the most probably participant to win their first Grand Slam title at this 12 months’s French Open?
Connelly: Andreeva. Her profession has already been a collection of unimaginable breakthroughs, not least of which was upsetting Sabalenka to succeed in final 12 months’s French Open semis. She has already gained a pair of 1000-level occasions in 2025, and in opposition to gamers not named Gauff or Sabalenka she’s 26-3 this 12 months. (And he or she has overwhelmed Sabalenka twice prior to now 12 months!) She’s prepared for an additional breakthrough … if she will ultimately determine the right way to conquer Gauff, anyway.
On the boys’s aspect, give me Lorenzo Musetti. His draw is not terrible — his hardest opponent earlier than the semis could be Holger Rune — and he went 7-2 at Roland Garros final 12 months, with each losses coming to Djokovic. He is 14-3 on clay this 12 months, too. It is nonetheless onerous to see previous Sinner and Alcaraz within the males’s draw, however Musetti would not want too many breaks to search out himself within the finals.
Maine: I am going to stick to Paolini right here. She has come shut earlier than and is enjoying some impressed tennis. Her 6-4, 6-2 victory over Gauff within the Italian Open remaining was spectacular. She is in the identical quarter as Swiatek and has by no means overwhelmed the reigning champion earlier than — together with shedding to her within the remaining final 12 months — however it actually appears as if their momentum has shifted in current months.
A primary-time males’s main champion appears unlikely, however Ruud is a two-time French Open finalist and gained the title in Madrid earlier this month. It could be a problem to defeat Alcaraz within the quarters however actually not unattainable. Ruud had a demoralizing 6-0, 6-1 loss to Sinner within the Rome quarterfinals, however maybe that may give him further motivation in the event that they have been to satisfy within the remaining? I could be reaching right here.
Hamilton: I am going with Paolini and Draper or Ruud. Paolini has that unimaginable run in Rome behind her, whereas Draper is oh-so-nearly there to profitable a serious match on clay. Ruud is a two-time finalist and can ultimately recover from the road. However out of the above — with an honorable nod to Andreeva — it is Paolini.
Cambers: Paolini will go one higher than final 12 months. A change of coach appears to have completed the trick and with each week, her confidence is rising. She covers the court docket so nicely and has extra energy than her dimension would recommend. The expertise of reaching the ultimate at Roland Garros and Wimbledon can be massively necessary, and he or she has the sport to do it. Andreeva could be the opposite selection. She appears to enhance each week; her serve is vastly improved, and he or she loves enjoying in Paris, having made her first slam semifinal final 12 months.
On the boys’s aspect, it is a powerful one. Alcaraz and Sinner are so sturdy that getting previous one or each can be extremely tough. However Ruud is the choose. Twice the runner-up in Paris and as soon as on the US Open, Ruud seemed like he would possibly go all the way in which final 12 months earlier than he received unfortunate with sickness in his semifinal in opposition to Zverev. His first Masters 1000 title on clay in Madrid could have been a serious enhance, and he has the flexibility to do the identical at Roland Garros.
