Former UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns makes his first Octagon look of 2025 when he squares off with undefeated Michael Morales in the principle occasion at UFC Combat Evening on Saturday (ESPN+, 7 p.m. ET primary card, 4 p.m. prelims).
Burns, ESPN’s No. 8-ranked welterweight, enters the combat searching for his first victory since April 2023, when he beat Jorge Masvidal by unanimous choice at UFC 287. He has misplaced every of his final three fights, together with a unanimous choice loss to Sean Brady final September.
Morales, unranked by ESPN, has received six straight fights within the UFC. Most lately, he beat Neil Magny by first-round knockout final August.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the UFC primary occasion. ESPN betting knowledgeable Ian Parker provides perception and evaluation on the principle occasion and different intriguing bets he likes on the cardboard.
Editor’s observe: Responses have been edited for brevity and readability.
Welterweight: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Burns wins: Burns’ sport plans usually revolve round strain, clinch entries and grappling. Morales has an 8-inch attain benefit, so Gilbert cannot play the vary sport. He is received to shut distance behind feints and massive degree adjustments, and crash the pocket. He may attempt a double jab into the physique lock or a low kick right into a takedown. As soon as he is executed that, his grappling is world-class. Burns has to make Morales respect the takedown makes an attempt and provides him the specter of again publicity or high strain. That menace alone will gradual Morales’ putting output. If this turns into a unclean, grind-it-out combat previous Spherical 2, it favors Gilbert. He is been in that deep water earlier than, however Morales hasn’t.
How Morales wins: It is about self-discipline, footwork and sticking to the basics. Burns is explosive, however he is a bit linear. Morales can choose him off with straight punches and low kicks. Morales has additionally proven strong steadiness and hips in his takedown protection. If he stuffs Gilbert’s photographs early within the combat, he’ll begin to construct confidence. As soon as Morales will get in rhythm, his output can snowball quick. He has benefits on this combat, however Burns will attempt to drag him into chaotic sequences. Morales cannot get grasping. If he fights with endurance and avoids the bottom, he’ll have the cleaner work.
X issue: Composure in transition. This combat will swing throughout these break up seconds the place vary collapses. Can Morales maintain his composure when Burns blitzes?
Prediction: Morales to win by late TKO or choice. However this combat will take a look at his maturity. If he passes, he is for actual.
Betting evaluation
Odds correct as of publication. For essentially the most up-to-date odds, go to ESPN BET.
Parker: Morales to win by KO/TKO (-130). Morales, a blue chip prospect who ranked No. 3 on ESPN’s MMA 25 below 25 record in 2023, will get his first UFC primary occasion towards the at all times powerful Burns. As a heavy favourite, Morales is anticipated to steamroll Burns, and I do not disagree. Burns is at his greatest when he takes his opponent down and makes use of his jiu-jitsu to manage the combat. Nonetheless, Morales has impeccable takedown protection and is probably going the higher wrestler. He’s additionally the extra bodily imposing athlete. Search for Morales to efficiently stuff Burns’ takedown makes an attempt and ultimately get the TKO win.
Parker’s greatest bets on the remainder of the cardboard
Middleweight: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
Ruziboev to win (-320), below 2.5 rounds. Ruziboev is getting the proper matchup towards Stoltzfus to begin a brand new successful streak within the Octagon. Whereas Stoltzfus is coming off a knockout win of his personal, he’s liable to getting tagged early and infrequently, and towards Ruziboev, that could be a recipe for getting knocked out. With Ruziboev at present sitting as a close to -300 favourite, put him in your parlay. For those who’d reasonably take him as a separate play, take him to win and below 2.5 rounds to get higher odds.
Featherweight: Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
Combat doesn’t go the space. This has each alternative to be combat of the night time. These two fighters at all times convey the motion. Erosa has a kill-or-be-killed mentality with an 84% end price when he wins. In losses, his contests have a 64% end price. For Costa, 4 of his six UFC appearances have ended by end. This combat will go one in all two methods: Both Costa succumbs to the strain and quantity of Erosa, or Costa catches Erosa in a submission following a mistake. Both approach, this combat does not make it to the ultimate bell.
Strawweight: Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro
Pennington to win by choice. Pinheiro is on a three-fight dropping streak, and it is arduous to think about she does not undergo a fourth loss right here. Because the combat goes on, if it does not go in Pinheiro’s favor, she tends to fade. Pennington has an limitless fuel tank and is the higher fighter anyplace the combat goes. This matchup screams Pennington successful by choice.
