The 2025 NBA playoffs have been marked by comebacks, and no person has mastered the artwork fairly just like the Jap Convention champion Indiana Pacers.
The Pacers rallied from a seven-point deficit within the remaining 40 seconds of time beyond regulation to finish their 4-1 collection win over the Milwaukee Bucks in Recreation 5 of the opening spherical, then achieved the identical feat within the remaining 50 seconds of their Recreation 2 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers within the Jap Convention semifinals.
All of that was an appetizer for Indiana’s most inconceivable Houdini act in Recreation 1 of the Jap Convention finals. Down 14 factors contained in the four-minute mark of regulation and eight within the remaining minute, the Pacers used a flurry of Aaron Nesmith 3-pointers, premature New York Knicks turnovers and Tyrese Haliburton’s high-bouncing shot on the buzzer to pressure time beyond regulation and ultimately steal the opening recreation of the collection.
Impressed by Indiana’s late rallies and New York successful three video games it trailed by at the least 20 factors, probably the most by a workforce in a single playoff run within the play-by-play period (beginning with the 1998 playoffs), let’s take a more in-depth have a look at how comebacks have dominated the 2025 playoffs.
Are the Pacers the best comeback workforce in NBA playoff historical past?
The quick reply, limiting it to the interval the place we are able to really quantify comebacks, is sort of definitely sure. The lengthy reply of quantifying this title is difficult.
No one has achieved extra work on win likelihood and comebacks than Mike Beuoy of Inpredictable.com, a terrific NBA useful resource. The web site charges every recreation with a comeback rating based mostly on the chance of the successful workforce’s low level, and Indiana’s three lengthy shot wins rank among the many seven greatest comebacks within the playoffs since 1997.
Inpredictable additionally appears on the common comeback rating for every of a workforce’s wins. (Technically, it is the geometric imply, which weighs one outlier comeback much less closely than taking the standard imply.) Regardless of that adjustment, it is nonetheless simpler to construct a excessive comeback rating with fewer ones moderately than as many because the Pacers (and Knicks) have to this point. After we graph the common comeback rating for every playoff workforce since 1997 towards their wins — with this 12 months’s groups highlighted by main shade — it is apparent what outliers Indiana and New York are.
Working with Beuoy, we tried just a few completely different strategies to discover a single comeback methodology that accounts for each the quantity of comebacks and their improbability. Probably the most satisfying we discovered was taking the product of the chance of every win at its lowest level — which is to say, the percentages {that a} workforce would win all of the video games it did within the playoffs.
Taking a look at issues this fashion closely favors groups with extra playoff wins, whether or not through comeback or not, since no recreation is a 100% win likelihood from the soar. Nonetheless, the Pacers’ 12 wins (and counting) rank second since 1997 on this group, trailing solely the 2011 champion Dallas Mavericks, who had 16 wins. You may see Dallas on the chart as having the best comeback rating of any title winner.
In the meantime, the Knicks’ 10 wins rank seventh, larger than any workforce earlier than this 12 months with out reaching the Finals.
Are win likelihood fashions underestimating the possibilities of comebacks?
All three Indiana comebacks have seen the workforce emerge victorious after win likelihood estimates gave {that a} 2.1% probability of taking place or much less, together with 0.9% towards New York. It is not fairly getting struck by lightning twice (your odds of that occuring as soon as are estimated by the Nationwide Climate Service at .000065%, based mostly on an 80-year lifespan), but it surely’s awfully unlikely by random probability alone.
Primarily based on that, you will be forgiven for some skepticism about win likelihood. A part of the problem is these estimates are based mostly on historic knowledge that won’t at all times sustain with the fast-moving NBA. ESPN’s mannequin, for instance, was in-built 2017 based mostly on coaching knowledge from the earlier seven or so seasons. As comebacks develop extra frequent as a consequence of a sooner tempo of play and an elevated quantity of 3s, a development I wrote about with ESPN’s Baxter Holmes again in 2019, it is doable we’re underestimating the probabilities to a level.
The opposite challenge is calibration. All fashions have uncertainty, however the distinction between a win likelihood of 57% and 58% is irrelevant in most sensible contexts. On the extremes, the uncertainty is magnified as a result of a comeback from a 98% win likelihood is twice as doubtless as one from 99%. And a comeback from 99% (one in 100 odds) is 10 occasions extra doubtless than one from 99.9% (one in 1,000). So even small calibration points are necessary.
Is there a stat that quantifies the Pacers’ offense and protection taking part in off one another so properly?
There may very well be an evidence for why this postseason particularly has seen so many comebacks, when most elements which can be cited have been in place for years: the connection between offense and protection. Offenses are usually considerably simpler after getting a cease as a result of it permits extra alternatives for early offense and cross-matching on protection, however the advantage of getting a cease (or vice versa) can rely on a wide range of elements that change from workforce to workforce and season to season.
Basically, these playoffs have featured an unlimited distinction in effectivity relying on whether or not the offense begins on a defensive rebound or takes the ball out of the online after a made basket. Returning to Inpredictable.com, their knowledge exhibits groups averaging a 1.17 factors per possession after a defensive rebound as in comparison with 1.07 after a made shot or a lifeless ball turnover. (The typical off steals, or reside ball turnovers, is far larger at 1.23 factors per possession.) That is a change from the previous few playoffs, when the distinction by begin kind has been a lot smaller — simply 0.01 factors per possession higher in 2022 and 2023.
As for why which may have modified, I’d level to elevated physicality being allowed by referees within the playoffs the previous two years. Inevitably, physicality is extra of a problem throughout half-court conditions moderately than transition. In the course of the 2023 playoffs, when the whistles have been tighter, groups averaged a extra environment friendly 1.1 factors per possession after a made shot or lifeless ball turnover.
I feel that would tie into why avoiding turnovers has been essential on this 12 months’s playoffs. As Owen Phillips of the F5 E-newsletter has been monitoring, the workforce with fewer turnovers has gone 53-20 (.726), which might be the best successful share for such groups in a single playoffs on document. Final 12 months, groups with fewer turnovers gained simply 60% of the time, in regards to the common over the previous decade (62%). Turnover battle winners have been barely higher than .500 in 2018-19 (41-37).
It is more durable to clarify why groups are scoring so effectively off defensive rebounds this 12 months, although fatigue may very well be an element with starters on a number of groups that reached the convention semifinals logging heavy minutes.
Switching our focus to Indiana particularly, the Pacers do derive extra profit than most groups from defensive rebounds. They’ve averaged 1.26 factors per possession after these, per Inpredictable, third greatest within the NBA. Though Indiana continues to be third after a made shot or lifeless ball, their effectivity drops by an above-average .16 factors per possession.
On the different finish of the court docket, we see a equally massive cut up. The Pacers’ protection is tenth greatest after a made shot or lifeless ball turnover and .17 factors per possession worse after a defensive rebound, dropping to 14th.
Now, what does this must do with comebacks? The larger the hole between stops and scores on the different finish of the court docket, the streakier a workforce (or league) is more likely to be as a result of the magnitude of every possession is amplified. A cease is not simply stopping the opponent from scoring, it is also juicing the workforce’s offense, and vice versa — a virtuous cycle or a vicious one, relying in your perspective.
The streakier the sport, the extra doubtless groups are to construct massive leads, and the extra doubtless opponents are to rally from them. Add it up and you have got the recipe for Indiana’s comebacks.
On the flip facet, regardless of dropping a fourth-quarter lead in Recreation 1 of their collection with the Denver Nuggets and staging a comeback from down 26 at halftime towards the Memphis Grizzlies, the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder have not been as depending on their offense to succeed defensively. Oklahoma Metropolis has been excellent defending after a made shot or lifeless ball turnover (second on a per-possession foundation after the Detroit Pistons) however is permitting .08 factors per possession fewer than every other workforce on possessions that start with defensive rebounds.
