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UK inflation was overstated by 0.1 proportion factors in April owing to an error in tax figures offered by a authorities division, the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics stated on Thursday.
Annual inflation was 3.4 per cent, in keeping with the corrected knowledge, relatively than the three.5 per cent initially estimated. Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated a charge of three.3 per cent, sharply up from 2.6 per cent in March.
The ONS stated an error had been recognized “in an extract of the licensed autos knowledge offered . . . by the Division for Transport, used to calculate the April 2025 Automobile Excise Responsibility part of client costs inflation”.
It stated the inaccurate knowledge had overstated the variety of autos topic to VED charges relevant within the first yr of registration.
“No different durations are affected . . . The ONS can be utilizing the appropriately weighted knowledge from Might 2025’s figures onwards. The DfT’s printed official statistics are unaffected,” it added.
The ONS stated the error was remoted to 1 set of knowledge used to calculate the VED index.
“Nonetheless,” it added, “the ONS is reviewing its high quality assurance processes for exterior knowledge sources in gentle of this difficulty.”
The ONS has come underneath intense scrutiny over the reliability of its knowledge, as long-running issues with a key labour market survey have raised doubts over key indicators similar to unemployment, inactivity and productiveness. Errors have additionally been present in its commerce knowledge.
Final month, the pinnacle of the statistics service Sir Ian Diamond stepped down citing “ongoing well being points” after a government-commissioned evaluation launched an investigation in April into the management, tradition and construction of the ONS.
The Financial institution of England has been vocal about its difficulties in deciding the trail for financial coverage amid excessive uncertainty over official knowledge.
BoE governor Andrew Bailey, when requested on the Home of Commons Treasury committee on Tuesday in regards to the impression of confidence in official knowledge on the financial institution’s financial policymaking, stated: “It does have a bearing on it’.
“We actually spend extra time on it, and that’s clearly what we should always do, given the uncertainty.”
On productiveness knowledge that confirmed a contraction over the course of 2024, Bailey informed the committee there was “a puzzle”.
Normally, he stated, “damaging productiveness progress is related to fairly critical recessions. We didn’t have that final yr. So there’s a puzzle there . . . over precisely what the image is, what the information are telling us”.
In April, the ONS stated it could cut back its work in some key coverage areas — together with the measurement of public sector productiveness and crime in opposition to kids — to give attention to core financial statistics.
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