NFL free company grades: QB Aaron Rodgers indicators with Steelers

Aaron Rodgers formally has a brand new workforce. The veteran quarterback agreed to phrases with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday and is anticipated to hitch the workforce for obligatory minicamp subsequent week. Rodgers was launched by the New York Jets in mid-March however took a while to weigh choices earlier than in the end touchdown in Pittsburgh.

Rodgers, who will flip 42 through the 2025 season, is anticipated to start out for the Steelers. He threw for 3,897 yards, 29 landing passes and 11 interceptions final season, his first full yr with the Jets after tearing his Achilles in Week 1 in 2023. He was one of many high accessible QBs this offseason, and he’s a four-time league MVP. However there are questions on how a lot he has left within the tank. Is that this actually a superb transfer for Pittsburgh, even with out different apparent options? Does it assist stabilize the offense? Let’s dimension up the deal.

Analytics author Seth Walder is evaluating and grading the deal primarily based on a number of components, together with on-field affect, wage cap implications, compensation, participant worth/age and the context of the Steelers’ short- and long-term outlooks. How giant is the affect of this determination and the way certain are we it is a good or unhealthy alternative? How does this have an effect on Pittsburgh’s probability to win the Tremendous Bowl, both this season or sooner or later? We additionally requested NFL analyst Ben Solak to make sense of the scheme match within the Steelers’ offense — is Pittsburgh’s offense higher now than it was in 2024?

This is our tackle the long-awaited Rodgers deal.

Soar to:
Grading the Rodgers deal
Sizing up the workforce match

Grading the deal

I am unable to imagine we’re again right here, watching one other NFL franchise determined for a solution at quarterback kowtow to a 41-year-old who hasn’t performed good ball since 2021. Twelve months from now we are going to search for and almost definitely be speaking in regards to the Steelers’ misplaced season with Rodgers that led to disappointment. However … I additionally suppose that is the rational alternative for the Steelers. The median final result just isn’t the purpose. This transfer makes some sense merely due to the slim quantity of upside that Rodgers nonetheless possesses and the choices that had been on the desk.

In 2021, Rodgers recorded a 74.1 QBR, main the league within the class and profitable MVP. For context, the final time Russell Wilson — who signed with the Giants however was theoretically an choice to return to the Steelers at one level — hit that QBR mark was in 2012, his rookie season. Identical goes for Kirk Cousins, who might need been a commerce candidate. As poor as Rodgers performed final season, the probabilities of him being a top-10 quarterback this season are increased than these of Wilson, Cousins or any veteran that was or is offered.

Rodgers is coming off a really poor 2024 season with the Jets during which he ranked twenty fifth in QBR (48.0) regardless of having Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams (for 11 video games) to focus on. His completion proportion over expectation was minus-5%, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, higher than solely Anthony Richardson and Cooper Rush. (Granted, the go safety in New York was beneath common.)

The optimistic case for the Steelers is that Rodgers was nonetheless hampered by the torn Achilles that knocked him out for all however 4 performs within the 2023 season. And to be truthful, Rodgers did look extra cell because the 2024 season went alongside. Of Rodgers’ 30 quickest top-speed performs final season, 17 got here in Week 13 or later, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. However an underrated a part of the Rodgers profession arc is that he not solely performed poorly final season after lacking nearly all of 2023 however additionally in 2022, his last season with the Packers. Rodgers ranked twenty sixth in QBR that yr (one spot forward of Wilson). So Rodgers’ current struggles should not be fully attributed to that harm; the decline began earlier than he joined the Jets.

The Steelers would most likely be clever to not let Rodgers have as a lot say within the offense as he had with the Jets. In any case, Rodgers’ greatest season in current historical past was 2020 enjoying beneath Matt LaFleur, in a system that utilized play-action and movement at a lot increased relative charges than what the Jets ran final season. Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Arthur Smith ran play motion 27% of the time final season (tenth most) however was mild on movement on the snap at simply 16% (twenty eighth).

The Jets’ offense was additionally closely predicated on receivers operating straight. In truth, 27% of the Jets’ routes had been deep fades, quick fades, hitches and go routes. That most likely is not ideally suited basically and positively is not ideally suited for a workforce whose greatest receiver is Wilson, who excels at transferring laterally. Nevertheless, that route profile is a power of DK Metcalf.

What separates the Steelers from, say, the Giants (one other reported contender for Rodgers at one level) is that Pittsburgh has the infrastructure that would presumably benefit from Rodgers’ upside. By that I imply it is a workforce that has:

• A doubtlessly nice protection. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in EPA per play final season, however its ceiling is a lot increased. Between T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Cameron Heyward and Nick Herbig (don’t sleep on Nick Herbig!), the Steelers have an outrageous go rush. And the secondary (with Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joey Porter Jr. and Darius Slay Jr.) can be strong, too.

• Adequate go safety. The Steelers ranked thirteenth in go block win fee final season, although they misplaced left sort out Dan Moore Jr. to the Titans in free company.

• An excellent broad receiver in Metcalf. Although with George Pickens traded to the Dallas Cowboys, Rodgers and the Steelers actually might use one other a second broad receiver behind the previous Seahawks star. The depth chart behind Metcalf in not notably inspiring.

• A savvy coach with organizational energy and a monitor report of with the ability to deal with troublesome personalities. This was one thing the Jets lacked, and it gave Rodgers de facto run of the group. It is fairly clear that is not one thing a workforce ought to need, and if anybody can deal with Rodgers, it is Mike Tomlin.

Assuming Rodgers is enjoying for one thing just like the $10 million he stated he would play for, it is a good transfer for Pittsburgh. Positive, there have been low-cost QB alternate options on the draft. Shedeur Sanders fell to Day 3, however Pittsburgh handed on him at No. 83 after which once more at No. 123. Even so, as poor as Rodgers has performed over the previous few years, it is a relative discount. The Steelers will probably be on the lookout for a quarterback subsequent offseason, however at the very least they did not overspend within the interim. (They did draft Will Howard within the sixth spherical, however he’s probably a backup within the execs.)

Wanting forward, if Rodgers hits his, say, eighty fifth percentile final result, then the Steelers might go on a deep playoff run. If Wilson had landed in Pittsburgh and hit his personal eighty fifth percentile final result, I do not suppose lets say the identical factor. And if Rodgers had been to hit his eighty fifth percentile final result with the Giants, they’d nonetheless be a missing soccer workforce. This is the reason the Rodgers-Steelers marriage makes uncomfortable sense.

Do not get me incorrect: If I had been the Steelers, I’d not be ok with taking place this path. However I additionally have a look at 30-year-old Watt and suppose if they are going to take a swing whereas he is nonetheless there, there is not a greater different. — Walder

Grade: B (pending contract info)

Does Rodgers match the Steelers’ offense?

Riddling out if Rodgers matches any form of scheme or system begins not along with his on-field expertise however whether or not or not he buys in. Will Rodgers willingly run the Arthur Smith offense when his time with the Jets was outlined by his unwillingness to play in a brand new system or throw to new gamers? Smith’s offenses in Tennessee, Atlanta and Pittsburgh have all relied closely on play-action passes from beneath middle, however Rodgers would not like turning his again to the protection. Is he lastly able to admit that he is 41 years outdated and bend his play model to accommodate his diminishing mobility? Or will he proceed to carry the road on how he desires to play?

Rodgers can be an unsure match with Metcalf. The ex-Seahawk is among the much less exact route runners within the NFL, and Rodgers famously calls for perfection from his receivers as they run his hand-selected number of extremely particular routes. It is arduous to think about a 17-game season during which there is no such thing as a sideline or postgame blowup between Rodgers and his high go catcher.

Even when the match is not good and the personalities conflict, Rodgers was a greater quarterback within the 2024 season than Russell Wilson or Justin Fields. The Steelers’ offense beneath Rodgers is not going to persistently outperform final season’s model, however it would probably have extra peak video games of competency, which might be a giant deal come playoff time. — Solak