Each three many years or so, the mid-major soccer state of affairs out West evidently has to destroy itself and regenerate. In 1962, the Western Athletic Convention fashioned from faculties that thought they have been too sturdy for his or her Border and Skyline Convention brethren. Authentic members: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. For a second, it appeared that Pacific Coast Convention castoffs Oregon, Oregon State and Washington State would possibly be part of them, however they ended up a part of what would develop into the Pac-8 Convention as a substitute.
In 1998, the Mountain West fashioned from faculties that thought they have been too sturdy for the 16-team mega-WAC. Authentic members: Air Pressure, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah and Wyoming. The WAC would maintain on for a bit by including faculties like Boise State, Nevada and Utah State, however finally the MWC would take them too, and the WAC would go away the soccer enterprise.
Beginning in 2026, we’ll principally have two Mountain Wests. Upon the seeming implosion of the Pac-12, the MWC engaged in some brainstorming, contemplating not solely including Pac-12 castoffs Oregon State and Washington State but additionally including fairly a couple of different applications and introducing a tiered promotion-and-relegation construction. That is, after all, proper up my alley. Ultimately, nonetheless, the Pac-12 did one thing extra tried-and-true as a substitute: It raided the MWC. Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State — faculties which have mixed to win 12 of the MWC’s final 13 soccer crowns — will be part of OSU and Wazzu (and Gonzaga in non-football sports activities) in a brand new Pac-12 subsequent season. It will likely be an MWC+ of kinds, however the MWC did a ok job of preserving others from defecting that it’s nonetheless set as much as dwell a fairly wholesome life in 2026 and past. And hey, it is technically not too late for everybody to revisit that relegation factor; I am simply saying.
Regardless, the MWC in its present kind lives for yet one more season (as does a now-awkward scheduling association with OSU and Wazzu). And the favourite is an awfully acquainted one. Let’s preview the Mountain West!
Each week by means of the summer season, Invoice Connelly will preview one other FBS convention solely for ESPN+, in the end together with all 136 FBS groups. The previews will embody 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Listed here are the MAC and Convention USA.
2024 recap
From a pure high quality standpoint, Boise State and UNLV lapped the sphere in 2024. The Broncos and Rebels have been every top-40 groups, with BSU going 12-0 towards non-Faculty Soccer Playoff groups and UNLV going 11-1 towards non-Boises. BSU rode Ashton Jeanty and by far the convention’s deepest roster to a good displaying within the first ever 12-team CFP. (The Broncos are comfortably the favorites to qualify once more this season.)
Everybody else within the convention ranked at the very least 49 spots decrease than BSU and UNLV, although three tight wins and a midseason sizzling streak produced a strong eight-win marketing campaign for Colorado State. The underside of the convention was loaded with both applications laboring in both their coach’s first season in cost (Nevada, SDSU, Wyoming), final season in cost (Utah State) or each (New Mexico).
Continuity desk
The continuity desk appears at every staff’s returning manufacturing ranges (offense, protection and total), the variety of 2024 FBS begins from each returning and incoming gamers and the approximate variety of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? As a result of faculties generally make it very tough to establish who redshirted and who did not.) Continuity is an more and more tough artwork in roster administration, however some groups pull it off higher than others.
It is reasonably unfair that the one MWC staff that ranks within the prime 60 in returning manufacturing or returns at the very least 200 begins from final 12 months is the one which was already finest in present. Boise State does have to interchange an otherworldly famous person in Jeanty, plus glorious gamers like slot receiver Cam Camper, defensive finish Ahmed Hassanein, linebacker Andrew Simpson and nickel again Seyi Oladipo. However the Broncos have by far one of the best depth within the convention to lean on, and so they doubtless nonetheless have probably the most star energy, too, with the return of quarterback Maddux Madsen, tight finish Matt Lauter, edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan and cornerbacks A’Marion McCoy and Jeremiah Earby. Plus, after surviving a serious run of offensive line accidents, the Broncos return virtually the complete two-deep up entrance, and 2024’s Jeanty deputies (particularly, Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines) may develop into stars with extra alternatives.
Outdoors of BSU, we have principally received two classes of groups: Those that return a strong quantity and will count on to enhance this 12 months (Wyoming, SJSU, Hawaii, SDSU, Air Pressure, Colorado State) and people who are going to look virtually fully totally different this season (everybody else). UNLV may nonetheless be a high-quality staff — the roster options extra former blue-chippers than some energy convention outfits — however new head coach Dan Mullen will discipline a lineup with 20 new starters.
2025 projections
Maybe not surprisingly, BSU begins out far forward of the pack. In the meantime, two of the groups at or close to the underside (Utah State and New Mexico) are breaking in new hires that I actually like (Bronco Mendenhall and Jason Eck, respectively), and I might guess that one of many two may overachieve fairly a bit out of the gate. Simply do not ask me which one.
One of many key options of those preseason projections is conservatism. With the quantity of uncertainty that exists this far out, I bake fairly a little bit of variance into these projections, which is why you see Boise State with such a commanding benefit and solely a 37% likelihood of profitable the title. I would be keen to wager the percentages are fairly a bit increased than that, however the sudden occurs fairly a bit on this sport.
5 finest video games of 2025
For every preview, I choose the 5 convention video games that characteristic (a) the very best mixed SP+ rankings for each groups and (b) a projected scoring margin below 10 factors. As a result of Boise State does not have a single recreation projected inside single digits all 12 months, nonetheless, we’ll bend the principles barely: Listed here are three video games that match these parameters, plus two large non-conference alternatives.
UCLA at UNLV (Sept. 6). After an virtually full roster teardown (the second in three years), UNLV may very well be absolutely anything in 2025. If Mullen and firm can generate some quick traction and upside, this one may simply be inside attain for the Rebels. By hook or by crook, we’ll study what we have to know concerning the Rebels fairly rapidly.
Boise State at Notre Dame (Oct. 4). BSU has a very interesting nonconference slate, one which encompasses a Week 1 journey to USF, a Week 5 go to from Appalachian State, and this showcase recreation, a Week 6 journey to South Bend. Notre Dame’s most likely too good to make this one an enormous upset alternative, however we’ll learn how the Jeanty-less Broncos can compete with top-10 degree groups. That is a helpful knowledge level.
Air Pressure at UNLV (Oct. 11). Whereas BSU is beginning out far forward of the pack, 4 groups have between a 7-12% convention title likelihood above, and two of them meet in Vegas in Week 7. The Rebels may very well be 6-0 after this one (with a visit to BSU on deck), but when that is extra of a tough reset season, they is also about 3-3 or 2-4.
UNLV at Colorado State (Nov. 8). This one is the seventh straight CSU recreation at present projected inside six factors, per SP+. Like UNLV, the Rams may very well be absolutely anything this season.
Fresno State at San Jose State (Nov. 29). Fresno State is present process a fairly laborious reset of its personal this 12 months, however the expertise degree nonetheless appears respectable; SJSU, in the meantime, will not want that many breaks to earn best-outside-Boise standing.
Convention title (and, due to this fact, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Spencer Danielson (second full 12 months, 15-3 total)
2025 projection: thirty third in SP+, 9.8 common wins (7.1 within the Mountain West)
Boise State was certainly the category of the Group of 5 final season, driving a Heisman finalist to heights not seen for greater than a decade. The Broncos misplaced solely to eventual Massive Ten champion Oregon within the common season, and it took a few return touchdowns for the Geese to fend them off. And solely a poor begin held them again towards Penn State within the CFP: Evidently rusty after a first-round bye, they missed a discipline purpose on their opening drive and allowed two touchdowns in three minutes; that 17-point swing made an awfully massive distinction in an eventual 17-point loss. They finally outgained PSU by 25 yards, however the early harm was an excessive amount of.
Time for an additional strive. BSU boasts a sturdy NIL base and all this system assist that allowed it to develop into the mannequin mid-major program 15-20 years in the past. If promotion and relegation have been truly a factor on this sport, this might be a top-division program. As an alternative, it is preventing an rising haves-versus-have-nots present with goalposts additional and additional away. Nonetheless, the Broncos will most likely be awfully good once more in 2025. With the non-conference video games referenced above, plus an early-season go to to what is likely to be a resurgent Air Pressure, they will play in a collection of thrilling early video games, and with the star energy nonetheless at hand, they need to be up for the problem.
With the important thing returnees talked about above, Spencer Danielson did not have to go wild within the switch portal. However he did a pleasant job of including confirmed MWC items like working again Malik Sherrod (Fresno State) and defensive deal with Dion Washington (Hawaii), thrilling native FCS stars like defensive finish Malakai Williams (Idaho) and security Derek Ganter Jr. (Jap Washington) and, in offensive lineman Miles Walker (Ohio State) and cornerback Jaden Mickey (Notre Dame), a few former high-end recruits who could not fairly discover a spot at elite applications.
It is odd to say, there are extra questions concerning the receiving corps than the Jeanty-less working again unit. Jeanty was one among one, however between Sherrod, former star recruit Jambres Dubar and dynamite kids Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, BSU nonetheless has one of the best RB room within the convention. Gaines is especially intriguing: He was misplaced for the season to harm in Sport 3 after gaining 200 yards in simply 23 touches (20 carries, three catches). He may very well be particular earlier than later. With out Camper, although, somebody unproven might want to come by means of at WR. Tight finish Matt Lauter (619 yards, seven TDs) is superb, and Latrell Caples (473 yards, 5 TDs) is dependable, however Camper averaged 15.6 yards per catch, and no returning wideout averaged greater than 12.5.
If Maddux Madsen (3,018 yards, 23 TDs) has the move catchers he wants, it is laborious to search out considerations anyplace else. The protection nonetheless has among the MWC’s finest playmakers (particularly finish Jayden Virgin-Morgan), and the offensive line returns 10 of the 11 gamers who began at the very least as soon as final season. Having Jeanty final season gave BSU a very excessive ceiling; as a minimum, BSU has by far the very best ground of any Group of 5 staff in 2025.
Head coach: Dan Mullen (first 12 months)
2025 projection: seventy fifth in SP+, 7.8 common wins (5.2 within the Mountain West)
Whereas Deion Sanders earned a lot of the publicity two years in the past when he got here to Colorado and flipped virtually the complete roster in a single offseason, Barry Odom principally did the identical factor at UNLV, and with higher quick outcomes. It took a 12 months for CU to generate any actual progress, however Odom’s Rebels instantly surged from 5-7 to 9-4 in 2023, then fielded what was, per SP+, their finest ever staff in 2024.
High 5 all-time UNLV groups, per SP+
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2024 (11-3, thirty sixth in SP+)
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1984 (11-2, fortieth)
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1980 (7-4, forty second)
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1979 (10-2, 53rd)
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1978 (7-4, 57th)
In 28 years earlier than Odom’s arrival, UNLV had averaged a dire 3.3 wins per season with 13 years at two or fewer wins and solely three at six wins or extra. Then the Rebels gained 20 in two years below Odom. Now he is at Purdue.
Whenever you overachieve dramatically in comparison with your historic norm after which lose the pinnacle coach who engineered mentioned overachievement, that is often an ironclad assure of quick regression. However with transfers and quick rebuilds turning into extra of the norm, historical past would possibly imply a bit of bit lower than it used to. UNLV changed Odom with nearly probably the most confirmed coach obtainable — in 13 seasons at Mississippi State and Florida, Dan Mullen gained at the very least eight video games eight occasions with six SP+ top-15 finishes — and he’ll oversee a roster loaded with former blue-chippers and/or power-conference signees. Amongst them:
QB: Anthony Colandrea (Virginia) and Alex Orji (Michigan)
RB: Jaylon Glover (Utah) and Keyvone Lee (Penn State/Mississippi State)
WR: Daejon Reynolds (Florida/Pitt), Troy Omeire (Texas/Arizona State), JoJo Earle (TCU/Alabama), Koy Moore (LSU/Auburn/WKU), Taeshaun Lyons (Utah)
OL: Ben Christman (Ohio State/Kentucky), Malik McGowan (North Carolina)
DL: Chief Borders (Florida/Pitt), Tunmise Adeleye (Texas A&M/TXST), Jalen Lee (LSU)
LB: Elias Rudolph (Miami), Isaiah Patterson (UCLA)
DB: Denver Harris (Texas A&M/UTSA), Laterrance Welch (LSU/Arizona State), Jake Pope (Georgia)
By my rely, there are 16 former blue-chippers on the roster. And virtually none of them have performed with one another earlier than. It is easy to see how this all comes collectively superbly, particularly on offense, the place Mullen groups have virtually all the time been strong and Mullen employed an intriguing younger coordinator in Corey Dennis. However that is additionally a large chemistry experiment that would go awry in fairly apparent methods. The uncertainty makes UNLV one of many nation’s extra intriguing groups; it additionally makes them fairly laborious to undertaking with confidence.
Head coach: Ken Niumatalolo (second 12 months, 7-6 total)
2025 projection: 83rd in SP+, 7.3 common wins (5.3 within the Mountain West)
Technically, San Jose State received worse in Ken Niumatalolo’s first season in cost. The Spartans had ranked 79th and 77th in SP+, respectively, Brent Brennan’s closing two seasons (2022-23), then slipped to 92nd final season. However contemplating what may have occurred, this felt fairly spectacular. SJSU ranked 129th in returning manufacturing, and there was some uncertainty that got here with hiring Niumatalolo, a profession triple-option coach who promised to not run the triple possibility in San Jose. The offense generated strong effectivity with a quick-passing id that just about felt like a sideline-to-sideline possibility offense; hiring coordinator Craig Stutzmann, who has each run-and-shoot and air-raid influences on the résumé, looks like a fairly impressed alternative. Holdover coordinator Derrick Odum’s protection, in the meantime, pulled a good bend-don’t-break routine regardless of having to start out 22 totally different gamers at the very least as soon as (after having misplaced eight starters from 2023). That they slipped solely from 88th to 92nd in defensive SP+ was a victory, and going 7-6, even whereas stumbling a bit in SP+, felt like a hell of a place to begin for the Niu period.
By MWC requirements, SJSU enjoys fairly strong continuity heading into 12 months 2, returning its main passer (Walker Eget) and rusher (Floyd Chalk IV), plus about two-thirds of its O-line begins and 14 of the 22 defenders who began at the very least as soon as. The receiving corps wanted a makeover after dropping 5 of the seven guys with at the very least 15 receptions, however Niumatalolo introduced in 4 receiver transfers (amongst them: Cal’s Mason Starling, Purdue’s Leland Smith and Sacramento State’s Danny Scudero) and a pair of JUCOs. The secondary misplaced 4 of final 12 months’s prime 5 as effectively, and Niumatalolo landed blue-chip transfers in Caleb Presley (Washington) and Maliki Crawford (USC), plus three extra JUCOs.
The place there have been holes, Niumatalolo appeared to fill them fairly effectively. However MWC competition would require a couple of new stars to emerge. If I had created an “SJSU’s finest gamers” record on the finish of final season, the highest 5 would have most likely consisted of receiver Nick Nash, cornerback DJ Harvey, defensive deal with Soane Toia, proper guard Marist Talavou and defensive finish John Ward. They’re all gone. The offense nonetheless has Eget, Chalk (who averaged a dynamite 0.3 missed tackles per contact) and 400-yard receiver Matthew Coleman, and the protection nonetheless has stellar linebackers in Jordan Pollard and Taniela Latu and security Isiah Revis. However whereas expertise and continuity are far increased than they have been a 12 months in the past, identified star energy is way decrease. If provided that commerce, numerous coaches would most likely take it, however we do not know every thing we have to learn about SJSU’s upside simply but.
A few breaks away from a run
Head coach: Matt Entz (first 12 months)
2025 projection: 89th in SP+, 6.5 common wins (4.5 within the Mountain West)
Matt Entz has been mentored by among the steadiest smaller-school entities in current historical past. He served as defensive coordinator for North Dakota State’s Chris Klieman, Northern Iowa’s Mark Farley and South Dakota’s Bob Nielson (at Western Illinois), and he spent 5 years as head coach of probably the most secure of all applications, NDSU. The Bison slipped a bit (by their requirements) late in his tenure, however few coaches have been extra recurrently uncovered to and concerned in high-end culture-building. And in 2024, his lone 12 months as USC linebackers coach, he helped the Trojans leap from one hundred and fifth to forty eighth in defensive SP+.
Fresno State has actually navigated by means of some ups and downs within the Twenty first century — they went from 11-2 in 2013 to 1-11 in 2016 again to 10-4 in 2017. And with Jeff Tedford’s up-and-down well being points — he was employed in each 2017 and 2022 and needed to go away inside three years each occasions — there hasn’t been fairly as a lot front-office stability as common. Nonetheless, the Bulldogs have gained double-digit video games at the very least as soon as below 4 totally different coaches this century. You possibly can win massive in Fresno.
This 12 months will simply be about Entz determining what he has. Gone are final 12 months’s prime two passers, prime three receivers, prime three offensive linemen and 11 of the 16 defenders with at the very least 300 snaps; amongst over 20 incoming transfers are a pair of two,700-yard passers (Rice’s E.J. Warner and Sacramento State’s Carson Conklin), a former four-star working again (Arizona’s Rayshon Luke), a pair of high-three-star sophomore receivers (Maryland’s Ezekiel Avit and Louisville’s Jahlil McClain) and one among my favourite smaller-school transfers of the 2025 cycle, Drake’s Finn Claypool (17.5 TFLs, 10 sacks final 12 months).
Luke and returnees Elijah Gilliam and Bryson Donelson can most likely count on to hold a heavy load this 12 months — USC apart, virtually all of Entz’s employers over the past 15 years have been massive believers in a bodily run recreation and complementary ball — and whereas the protection does not have wonderful measurement, it has identified playmakers like edge rusher Korey Foreman, nook Al’zillion Hamilton and, doubtlessly, Claypool. I do not understand how a lot quick progress to count on right here, however this appears like a strong marriage between a secure coach and stability-seeking program.
Head coach: Troy Calhoun (twenty ninth 12 months, 135-89 total)
2025 projection: 94th in SP+, 6.2 common wins (4.1 within the Mountain West)
Within the final eight full seasons, Troy Calhoun’s Air Pressure Falcons have gained at the very least 9 video games 5 occasions and completed below .500 thrice. Both the items are in place, or they are not. After a very spectacular run in Calhoun’s spectacular tenure — the Falcons gained 40 video games within the 4 full seasons from 2019-23 — they misplaced an immense quantity of expertise from the 2023 staff and ranked final nationally in returning manufacturing with one of many lowest averages in current reminiscence. It wasn’t a lot of a shock, then, after they stunk out loud to start out 2024. Projected to fall from forty fifth to 88th in SP+, they as a substitute underachieved towards projections by 13.0 factors per recreation over seven video games and crashed to 1-6 and one hundred and twenty fifth.
A misplaced season grew to become an encouraging one late: Over their final 5 video games, the Falcons overachieved towards projections by a median of 17.7 factors per recreation, and after a 20-3 loss to Military dropped them to 1-7, they gained their final 4 video games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The total-season averages nonetheless weren’t nice, however as with Michigan, Air Pressure principally noticed its win complete reduce in half from the earlier season however in some way nonetheless ended up in a very good temper.
SP+ projections are nonetheless fairly conservative — the Falcons are solely projected to rise from 111th to 94th (and so they as soon as once more do not have a lot expertise at QB) — however they boast main expertise within the trenches and return star defender Payton Zdroik (11 TFLs regardless of accidents in 2024). That ought to be thought-about strong cause for optimism.
Josh Johnson is probably to start out at QB. With one begin and 48 snaps final season, he produced probably the most “possibility quarterback!” move chart possible, throwing three interceptions with three completions over 25 yards … in simply 14 complete passes.
Johnson additionally had rushes of 15, 20 and 42 yards amongst his 13 non-sack carries. Senior slot backs Cade Harris and Kade Frew have some big-play potential, too, and fullbacks Dylan Carson and Owen Allen are environment friendly, too. We cannot know Johnson can deal with all of the calls for till we see it, but when he is strong, Air Pressure most likely will likely be too.
Head coach: Jay Norvell (fourth 12 months, 16-21 total)
2025 projection: 97th in SP+, 5.9 common wins (3.9 within the Mountain West)
We are able to describe Colorado State’s 2024 season in one among two alternative ways.
The primary approach: Jay Norvell’s Rams rode a midseason sizzling streak and five-game profitable streak to, extremely, their first bowl in eight years. It is a respectable interpretation. CSU’s protection was actually sturdy throughout the profitable streak, peaking by shutting down a powerful New Mexico offense in a 17-6 win. The usual slipped late, however CSU nonetheless bowled.
The second approach: CSU beat unhealthy groups and misplaced to good groups. That is most likely a greater interpretation.
CSU vs. SP+ prime 90 groups: 0-4 file, common rating: opponent 37.8, CSU 12.0
CSU vs. 91st or worse: 8-1 file, common rating: CSU 29.9, opponent 20.4
The Rams solely improved a lot in 2024, however they created extra massive performs and fewer turnovers than opponents, they have been fairly aggressive on third and fourth down, they stayed wholesome sufficient to take care of a secure lineup, and so they generated their finest file in a decade. It wasn’t probably the most sustainable recipe for fulfillment, however Norvel did not sit on his laurels this offseason. He introduced in each smaller-school stars — amongst them: receiver Tay Lanier (Northern Arizona), edge rusher Paul Tangelo (St. Francis) and cornerback Lemondre Joe (Missouri State) — and former blue-chippers like receiver Kojo Antwi (Ohio State) and corners Jahari Rogers (SMU) and CJ Blocker (Utah). Veterans like working again Vann Schield (who has now gone from CSU-Pueblo to Colorado State to Northern Arizona again to Colorado State), defensive finish Moso’oipala Tuitele (New Mexico) and linebacker Jacob Ellis (Iowa State) ought to be quick contributors too.
Nobody introduced in additional FBS begins through the portal than CSU, and it was a fairly important factor. The offense does return key items like quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (2,796 yards, 14 TDs), receiver Armani Winfield and proper deal with Aaron Karas, however a) Winfield is the one of final 12 months’s prime 5 receivers returning, and b) the protection solely returns one starter. After a pleasant bowl breakthrough, you’d prefer to assume CSU is poised to take one other step ahead. However with the turnover — and the shaky underlying numbers — I am considering 2025 will likely be extra about simply attempting to solidify good points by bowling once more.
Head coach: Sean Lewis (second 12 months, 3-9 total)
2025 projection: 102nd in SP+, 5.7 common wins (3.7 within the Mountain West)
We’re simply going to chalk SDSU’s 2024 season as much as a very good, old school 12 months 0 state of affairs. Sean Lewis did some miraculous work at Kent State — the Golden Flashes have completed .500 or higher six occasions within the final 37 years, and three got here in Lewis’ five-year tenure (2018-22) — however even there he went 2-10 in his first season. He had his work reduce out for him in 2024, making an attempt to replace the SDSU offense from no matter Brady Hoke was truly attempting to do there to one thing resembling a Twenty first-century offense. He introduced in numerous transfers, however nothing took, and a protection that had collapsed in 2023 did not get any higher both. SDSU fielded its worst staff, with its worst file, since 2008. Unhealthy stuff.
Together with his mulligan spent, the stakes rise in 2025. SDSU could have a brand new beginning quarterback and virtually solely new talent corps this fall, however which may not be a nasty factor. Michigan Jayden Denegal seems to be the favourite at quarterback, although former Central Michigan dual-threat Bert Emanuel Jr. is perpetually intriguing; final 12 months’s prime three RBs and 7 of eight WR/TEs are gone, however Coastal Carolina switch Christian Washington and junior Fortunate Sutton may very well be strong at working again, and the mix of sophomores (and former star recruits) Jordan Napier and Jerry McClure and Northwestern State switch Myles Kitt-Denton appear to have strong upside at receiver. The offense line is skilled and massive, although clearly it wasn’t notably efficient final 12 months.
The protection enjoys fairly strong continuity, although the hope needs to be that some newcomers cram their approach into the lineup. Outdoors linebacker Trey White (21.5 TFLs, 12.5 sacks) is without doubt one of the most dominant defenders within the MWC, however he’ll need assistance, and the hope needs to be that transfers like defensive deal with Malachi Finau (Hawaii), defensive finish Niles King (12 TFLs at Grand Valley State) and linebacker Mister Williams (13 TFLs at Incarnate Phrase) present it fairly rapidly.
SDSU gained at the very least 10 video games 5 occasions in six full seasons from 2015-21, however the win complete has fallen for 3 straight years. Lewis earned some advantage of the doubt, however that may run out with one other poor season.
Head coach: Jay Sawvel (second 12 months, 3-9 total)
2025 projection: one hundred and fifth in SP+, 5.4 common wins (3.6 within the Mountain West)
For many of Craig Bohl’s 10 seasons in cost at Wyoming, you may rely on the protection: The Cowboys averaged a 40.6 defensive SP+ rating from 2017-23 and completed .500 or higher for seven straight (full) seasons.
Naturally, when Bohl retired after 2023, defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel was promoted to interchange him. After which he promoted a Bohl — linebackers coach Aaron Bohl — to interchange him at coordinator. This all is sensible. However Wyoming nonetheless tumbled from 9-4 to 3-9. The offense vanished, posting the varsity’s worst offensive SP+ ranking for the reason that Nineteen Forties, and the protection crashed to 96th in defensive SP+. It improved late within the season, nevertheless it then misplaced 11 of the 14 gamers with 250-plus snaps.
Sawvel inked 13 transfers (plus three JUCOs) in an try to get the protection again on observe, and there was a fairly frequent theme amongst them: Eight of the 13 transfers have been from FCS or decrease. Finish Brayden Wilson (Weber State), OLB Brayden Johnson (Oklahoma Baptist) and security Enock Sibomana (NDSU) are most likely probably the most dynamic of the bunch, however fairly a couple of of them are going to have to stay if Wyoming is to have any depth in any way. Wilson, FAU switch Chisom Ifeanyi and returnees Tyce Westland and Ben Florentine may kind the bottom of a strong line, however the linebacking corps is totally beginning over, and no returning DBs have distinguished themselves.
The offense has strong continuity, for higher or worse. Kaden Anderson took over at quarterback late in his redshirt freshman season and was glorious towards New Mexico (towards different opponents, not a lot), and all however one common O-lineman returns. The talent corps has all the dimensions you may presumably need — tight finish John Michael Gyllenborg (6-foot-5, 250) is superb, QB-turned-TE Evan Svoboda (additionally 6-foot-5, 250) is athletic, and working again Sam Scott (6-foot-2, 230) can bounce off defenders between the tackles. However none of this measurement prevented Wyoming from gaining zero or fewer yards on 36% of snaps final 12 months (119th in FBS), and massive performs have been predictably laborious to come back by. Anderson and go route specialist Jaylen Sargent may kind an fascinating tandem, however one of the best factor this offense has going for it’s a actually low bar.
Head coach: Timmy Chang (fourth 12 months, 13-25 total)
2025 projection: 108th in SP+, 5.5 common wins (3.4 within the Mountain West)
At Bishop Gorman highschool in Las Vegas, Honolulu-born Micah Alejado threw 125 profession touchdowns with simply 4 INTs. He was MaxPreps’ nationwide junior of the 12 months (he had a three-star rating in keeping with ESPN’s scouts). Solely his 5-foot-10, 180-pound stature stored his provide record in examine. And in a tiny pattern final season, he lit up the creativeness. In Hawaii’s season finale towards New Mexico, he threw for 469 yards with 5 touchdowns, no picks, no sacks and 54 speeding yards. Was New Mexico’s protection dreadful? Sure. Was Alejado nonetheless unimaginable? Additionally, sure. He was virtually Timmy Chang-esque. (Hawaii’s head coach is third on the all-time FBS passing yardage record.)
Main receivers Pofele Ashlock and Nick Cenacle return, as do 4 linemen with beginning expertise, and working backs Landon Sims and Cam Barfield are strong pass-catchers. Depth may very well be a serious difficulty — no different returning wideout caught greater than six passes, and the complete second-string O-line would possibly encompass freshmen and redshirt freshmen. However whereas Hawaii hasn’t ranked increased than 83rd in offensive SP+ since 2019, we caught a glimpse of one thing thrilling late final season.
We additionally caught a glimpse of a semi-competent protection. In Dennis Thurman’s first season as coordinator, Hawaii jumped from 121st to 89th in defensive SP+ because of big-play prevention and strong third-down work. Of the 20 gamers with 200-plus snaps final season, 11 return, together with move rushers Elijah Robinson and Jackie Johnson III, run-defending linebackers Logan Taylor and Jamih Otis and nickel again Elijah Palmer. Chang additionally did some fascinating portal work by including deal with De’jon Benton (USC through New Mexico), finish Qwyn Williams (Ohio Dominican) and security Tim Malo (Brown), amongst others. On paper, that is the deepest and most confirmed Hawaii protection shortly. (Granted, that bar’s low.)
SP+ is not programmed to overreact to a one-game QB pattern like I’m, nevertheless it nonetheless offers Hawaii 50-50 odds of reaching bowl eligibility for the primary time below Chang. If Alejado is the actual deal and Hawaii overachieves, then all of a sudden a tossup-heavy schedule — one doubtless win, three doubtless losses and eight projected one-score video games (together with a Week 0 go to from Stanford) — begins to look awfully conducive to an enormous 12 months. Alejado makes Hawaii an enormous wildcard in 2025.
Simply in search of a path to 6-6
Head coach: Bronco Mendenhall (first 12 months)
2025 projection: 119th in SP+, 4.3 common wins (2.7 within the Mountain West)
Within the final two writeups, I talked about younger QBs producing pleasure by torching New Mexico. That alone tells you that Bronco Mendenhall’s lone season in cost at UNM wasn’t good. His Lobos ranked 132nd in defensive SP+, which capped them at 5-7 regardless of an thrilling offense.
Nonetheless, 5-7 was the Lobos’ finest file since 2016. After taking two seasons off following a stint at Virginia, Mendenhall proved he can nonetheless be a fairly artistic and resourceful coach. Then he left UNM to return to his house state. He takes over a Utah State program that, after profitable at the very least 9 video games 5 occasions in 9 full seasons from 2012-21, has suffered three straight dropping seasons.
Mendenhall’s resourcefulness should come in useful. USU’s offense returns nobody who began greater than six video games, and the protection returns simply three starters. (On the brilliant aspect, the protection was completely dreadful.) Mendenhall introduced in almost 30 transfers (together with six from New Mexico), plus eight JUCOs, six on protection. Defensive deal with Gabriel Iniguez Jr., linebacker John Miller and former UNM cornerback Noah Avinger are strong constructing blocks, however the offense may need extra potential out of the gate because of a backfield of quarterback Bryson Barnes (who shined late in 2024) and switch working backs Javen Jacobs (UNM) and Miles Davis (BYU). In fact, the road is a complete clean slate.
There’s a dire lack of identified portions right here, and glimpses of high quality may very well be sporadic. However Mendenhall has confirmed he’ll coax no matter he can out of a roster, and a schedule with six opponents projected 94th or worse in SP+ ought to nonetheless present some wins.
Head coach: Jeff Choate (second 12 months, 3-10 total)
2025 projection: 124th in SP+, 4.1 common wins (2.4 within the Mountain West)
It seemed like Nevada had one thing going for a second in 2024, Jeff Choate’s first season in cost. The Wolf Pack began out 3-4, almost knocking off CFP-bound SMU within the opener and upsetting Oregon State and Troy. They overachieved towards SP+ projections by 11.8 factors per recreation on this span and briefly jumped to 99th in SP+.
They then misplaced their final six video games. They confirmed effectively in a 28-21 loss to Boise State however misplaced three different video games by at the very least 17 factors and tumbled again to 117th in SP+. And any lingering sense of momentum was put to relaxation with the lack of offensive coordinator Matt Lubick and about 18 starters.
Choate did strong portal work, touchdown seven gamers with FBS beginning expertise and intriguing FCS transfers like offensive linemen Hadine Diaby (Tennessee State) and Jack Foster (Idaho), defensive finish Sam Prepare dinner (SE Missouri State), linebacker Nakian Jackson (Sacramento State), cornerback Murvin Kenion III (Sacramento State) and ball-hawking security Hayden McDonald (Columbia). If transfers prop up the protection and the pitch-and-catch combo of quarterback Chubba Purdy, veteran slot man Marcus Bellon and transfers Nick Rempert (North Texas) and Jordan Brown (Texas Tech) clicks, the Pack may once more shock as they did within the first half of 2024. However while you’ve gone 7-30 over the past three seasons, you have misplaced the advantage of the doubt. I liked the Choate rent — he was good as Montana State’s head coach, served three seasons as Texas’ defensive co-coordinator and has all of the MWC expertise you may presumably need. But it surely nonetheless looks like he has a mountain to climb in Reno.
Head coach: Jason Eck (first 12 months)
2025 projection: a hundred and thirtieth in SP+, 3.6 common wins (2.2 within the Mountain West)
I am a sucker for a Massive Sky success story. Meaning I am an enormous Jason Eck man. Idaho had gained simply 15 video games in 4 seasons again in FCS when Eck took over, however in three years he led the Vandals to 26 wins and three playoff appearances (two quarterfinals). The previous Montana State and South Dakota State OL coach instantly crafted a strong tradition and thrilling product.
Now he takes on an excellent greater problem: New Mexico has had one profitable season in 17 years. Once more, going 5-7 final 12 months below Mendenhall was an accomplishment.
If Eck finds fast success, it will likely be due to Massive Sky guys: He introduced in 11 Massive Sky transfers, together with quarterback Jack Layne (Idaho), an exhilarating RB trio of Damon Bankston (Weber State), Scottre Humphrey (Montana State) and Deshaun Buchanan (Idaho) — mixed: 2,740 yards (6.8 per carry) final season — and doubtless Idaho’s two finest defenders in finish Keyshawn James-Newby and linebacker Jaxton Eck. New Mexico ought to have nice RBs (he additionally introduced in Sam Houston’s DJ McKinney), and between guard Richard Pearce, deal with Isaiah Sillemon and 4 senior FCS transfers, the road ought to at the very least be massive and senior-heavy. The passing recreation is a thriller, however you may see a bodily id forming there.
Veteran Spence Nowinsky takes over a protection that appears to have upside at edge rusher (with James-Newby, returnee Gabriel Lopez and Vanderbilt switch Darren Agu) and linebacker, the place Dimitri Johnson is probably the most confirmed returnee. I don’t know concerning the secondary, however at the very least the bar’s extremely low after two straight seasons of rating 128th or worse in defensive SP+.
