Within the cloak-and-dagger world of convention realignment, clues to potential strikes can manifest themselves in unusual locations.
One emerged final week by way of a Twitter account with 313 followers selling Texas State tailback Lincoln Pare for the Heisman Trophy.
The account included an image — cribbed from the Instagram story of the Texas State president — of two beavers floating within the San Marcos River. And it famous the potential realignment ramifications — “Beavers within the San Marcos River” — by together with a scratching chin emoji that hinted at the potential for Texas State becoming a member of Oregon State within the Pac-12. (OSU’s nickname is, in fact, the Beavers and the San Marcos River runs via the bustling city south of Austin the place Texas State resides.)
This doubtless would have pale into the background of the Twitter-sphere if Texas State president Kelly Damphousse hadn’t retweeted it on June 10. That set off a spark within the wake of a usually scheduled Pac-12 assembly earlier within the week when Texas State’s candidacy was a spotlight of debate. (The Pac-12 declined remark for this story.)
So what’s subsequent for the Pac-12? And what ripples may buzz via the kinetic realignment panorama? This is what may very well be coming within the subsequent wave of realignment, which is anticipated to happen outdoors of the facility conferences.
What’s subsequent for the Pac-12?
Texas State is the heavy favourite, per ESPN sources, to be issued a proper Pac-12 invitation. The league remains to be engaged with different colleges, per sources, however Texas State has clearly emerged on the forefront of that group.
On July 1, the buyout for Texas State to go away the Solar Belt for the 2026-27 season will rise from $5 million to $10 million. That is clearly a much bigger motivator for Texas State than the Pac-12 however seemingly a big sufficient deadline to set off motion.
For the Pac-12 to herald a brand new associate in a time of economic uncertainty for the league, it will make sense to supply Texas State previous to July 1. In spite of everything, the Pac-12 wants an eighth soccer member for 2026, so that they have their very own deadline looming.
In realignment, in fact, nothing is official till it is signed. And nothing is formal till it is accomplished. So with Texas State and the Pac-12, sources mentioned one of the simplest ways to elucidate the courtship is that the league is presently exploring making a proposal within the upcoming weeks.
Texas State has loomed for months as the favourite to affix the league and was prominently mentioned within the Pac-12’s digital assembly earlier this week. They’ve been the league’s prime goal for months and are anticipated to have voting assist, because the league’s presidents are enamored with a foothold within the state and Damphousse’s management.
Texas State is booming as a college with an enrollment of greater than 40,000, and it boasts a whole lot of tenets of soccer potential, with a wealthy native expertise base and a rising younger coach, G.J. Kinne, on the helm.
The league’s presidents will not vote on Texas State till they’re prepared for the method to unfold in rapid-fire succession. That is anticipated to come back earlier than July 1. Texas State turned down a verbal supply from the Mountain West final fall, which athletic director Don Coryell referred to as “preliminary discussions with an convention.”
Texas State, if the Pac-12 course of unfolds as anticipated, could be the league’s ninth member total and eighth soccer member. A part of the sensation of inevitability of the invitation is tied to necessity. The league must develop to eight soccer members in an effort to qualify as an FBS convention. (Gonzaga is the non-football member.) Internally on the Pac-12, Texas State has lengthy been seen as the very best available choice for that eighth spot.
The exit payment looms as a big motivator, as Texas State would be part of to start out the 2026 season.
What would a proposal appear to be? Nicely, Damphousse’s social media hinted on the expectations of that once more. In April, he tweeted about his love of lobster bisque: “Individuals generally suppose that I might be pleased with half a bowl of soup. In spite of everything, a cup of soup is healthier than no soup in any respect. However for me, it is a full bowl or nothing.”
That line was in response to hypothesis that Texas State would go to the Pac-12 for a part of a media share. It seems that Damphousse wishes a full one.
It is a cheap expectation contemplating Gonzaga will likely be a full member of the convention when it comes to media rights, regardless of not fielding a soccer staff. Nonetheless, Gonzaga will not share absolutely in different football-related income.
The place does the Pac-12 go subsequent?
The Pac-12 has flailed a bit since initially including Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State final yr. It failed so as to add UNLV and Air Power, which stayed within the Mountain West for larger slices of the pie, earlier than including Utah State.
The league’s aim was so as to add colleges from the AAC, however Tulane had little curiosity and an preliminary courtship so as to add Memphis hit a tough cease due to funds. The exit payment to go away the AAC previous to the 27-month mark was estimated round $25 million. The Pac-12 solely provided about $2.5 million to assist with the buyout, which was rejected.
The place the Pac-12 goes past the eighth member is closely tied to some readability on the league’s monetary future. The league’s tv deal, with at the least three companions, is anticipated to come back collectively within the coming weeks. The timing of that deal, nevertheless, shouldn’t be essentially tied to the looming announcement of an eighth football-playing faculty.
In April, the Pac-12 agreed to a cope with the CW, ESPN and CBS to point out the 13 house soccer video games involving Oregon State and Washington State in 2025. These partnerships aren’t binding into 2026, however Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould mentioned beforehand the convention was searching for companions in 2025 that expressed concerned with longer-term affiliations.
The funds from a brand new TV deal are anticipated to be under what the league’s consultants pitched colleges initially. Within the wake of the preliminary flurry of colleges going to the league, ESPN reported colleges had been proven projected income from a TV deal north of $10 million per faculty, however circumstances have modified.
That quantity initiatives below $10 million for the brand new deal beginning in 2026 however remains to be anticipated to be greater than these colleges would have acquired had they remained within the Mountain West. The opposite monetary variable is said to the buyouts for the 5 MW colleges.
In September, the Pac-12 filed a lawsuit in federal court docket difficult the legality of a “poaching penalty” included in a soccer scheduling settlement it signed with the Mountain West in December 2023. It was a step the Pac-12 took to mitigate or keep away from paying $55 million to the Mountain West, which the latter believes it’s owed as results of its 5 colleges leaving for the Pac-12. On prime of that, there are particular person buyouts these colleges owe the Mountain West, which may collectively value the faculties greater than $70 million.
Earlier this yr, the Pac-12 — together with Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State — entered mediation with the Mountain West associated to those charges, and it is unclear how productive that course of has been. Wherever issues internet out will doubtless issue into the convention’s subsequent steps.
What’s subsequent for Memphis?
In some ways, Memphis looms as essentially the most fascinating chess piece for future realignment outdoors of the facility leagues. It has a robust basketball program, 11 consecutive years of bowl eligibility in soccer and vital outdoors monetary assist accessible.
There would not seem like a lot fast curiosity in Memphis from the facility leagues, per sources. And that is still Memphis’ final aim, to get to the opposite facet of the river.
If Memphis cannot determine a approach into an influence league within the subsequent few years – and there isn’t any imminent realignment strikes anticipated at that stage – there’s prone to be an additional exploration of some kind of cut up convention affiliation.
Pac-12 officers have mentioned, per sources, Memphis approaching as a football-only member. This concept was made public in experiences within the fall by USA Right this moment. The remainder of that athletic division’s sports activities would go to the Massive East. This may permit Memphis to maximise basketball income towards robust competitors and save the journey of non-revenue sports activities going out West.
The calculus in Memphis’ resolution making will rely upon myriad elements. That features the quantity of the media offers within the Pac-12 and what occurs with that league’s mediation with the Mountain West.
Memphis made $11 million all-in within the AAC final yr. That is a quantity anticipated to be forward of what the Pac-12 can pay its full members.
What would a mixture appear to be? (The brand new Massive East deal is anticipated to dole out practically $7 million per faculty yearly, so the Memphis query could be whether or not its added stock may develop the pie to maintain that quantity complete.)
Memphis is such a vital piece to the cluster of leagues outdoors the facility conferences, because it’s one of many AAC’s bell cows. And a Memphis departure may create potential ripples, which is why their upcoming strikes are the linchpin of any vital upcoming motion.
The expectation within the Pac-12 is that no motion for Memphis to the Pac-12/Massive East could be anticipated to be critically mentioned till at the least a 2027-28 begin date.
What could be the dominoes of the Pac-12 including Texas State?
Whereas sources stress there’s been no formal invitation but for Texas State, the transfer has reached the purpose the place the Solar Belt is getting ready for a departure.
Within the fall, when Texas State was flirting with different leagues, the Solar Belt had began to place collectively contingency plans. That included conversations, per sources, that established Louisiana Tech as the favourite over a number of different targets, together with Western Kentucky, if Texas State had been to go away. There would nonetheless must be extra dialogue and presidential motion earlier than any addition.
Louisiana Tech’s location aids them right here, because the Solar Belt performs in divisions in soccer and a Texas State departure would imply a emptiness within the West.
The early attraction of Louisiana Tech that is been talked about, per sources, is that it has the geographic location to create pure rivalries and straightforward journey with ULM, Louisiana and Southern Miss. All are in the identical geographic footprint, and Louisiana Tech brings a robust custom in baseball and softball, that are valued by the Solar Belt.
The Solar Belt’s realignment technique for years has been to double-down on regional rivalries, and Louisiana Tech would fall into that class.
Western Kentucky could be engaging due to this system’s robust historical past in soccer and long-standing success in males’s basketball. They’d have some assist from colleges within the East, however the early learn is that Louisiana Tech is forward.
Per the Convention USA bylaws, a departing faculty would owe two years of income distribution and want to purchase again the grant of rights. For a college to go away for 2026, the fee initiatives to be greater than $5 million.
Convention USA officers are involved sufficient concerning the potential ripple to their stage that they’ve begun strategizing behind the scenes to exchange a member faculty being poached.
If Louisiana Tech or one other faculty departed Convention USA and the league was to increase up from 10 members, the favourite for the spot in Convention USA is Tarleton State College. That college has proven a big monetary dedication to athletics.
