Ought to the US enter the battle between Israel and Iran, it might be anticipated to play a key position in destroying Iran’s underground uranium enrichment services.
That activity would nearly definitely fall to a choose variety of US bomber planes which can be large enough to ship a 30,000lb precision-guided bomb, referred to as the GBU-57 E/B Huge Ordnance Penetrator, or MOP — the world’s strongest non-nuclear bomb.
Dropped from a B2 stealth bomber, the 6m-long MOP can reportedly penetrate with sheer kinetic power greater than 60 metres of rock and soil — relying on the earth’s hardness — earlier than exploding. As a result of it’s precision-guided, a number of bombs can in idea be dropped on a single spot.
That provides the MOP, which is extra highly effective than any identified typical bomb in Israel’s arsenal, probably sufficient influence to destroy a lot of Iran’s underground enrichment services, particularly the Natanz website, which is regarded as buried 20 metres underground and encased in some 2 metres of bolstered concrete.
Nonetheless, it is probably not sufficient to destroy the more-heavily protected Fordow facility, which is buried inside a mountain underneath as a lot as 80 metres of rock and soil — although the bomb was developed for that particular function.
Rafael Grossi, head of the Worldwide Atomic Power Company, has mentioned that a few of Fordow’s most delicate services could also be buried even deeper, as a lot as half a mile underground.
“I’ve been there many occasions,” he informed the FT this month. “To get there you are taking a spiral tunnel down, down, down.”
The shortage of any assure {that a} profitable bomb strike, or perhaps a sequence of strikes, would destroy most or all of any already enriched nuclear stockpile in Fordow recollects an identical predicament confronted by the US up to now.
When the US was considering a pre-emptive bombing marketing campaign in opposition to Soviet nuclear weapons stationed in Cuba through the 1962 Cuban missile disaster, a key concern was a possible failure to destroy all of the targets — a danger calculus that prompted President Kennedy to go for a naval blockade and diplomacy as a substitute.
“The US Air Power had been solely assured that they may destroy 85 per cent of the targets — which is why there have been additionally plans for a follow-up floor invasion,” mentioned Robert Pape, a US navy historian and creator of Bombing to Win, a landmark survey of twentieth century bombing campaigns.
“Within the Iranian case, how can the US Nationwide Safety Council ensure that they’re going to get all the things? That’s the large concern,” he mentioned.
Manufactured by Boeing, the MOP has been examined on the White Sands Missile Vary in New Mexico however has by no means been utilized in lively fight. That probably introduces a second drawback.
“To destroy Fordow, which the MOP was explicitly designed for, would in all probability take a minimum of two bombs, every hitting precisely the identical spot,” Pape mentioned.
“Which may be superb, and I’m certain the US Air Power has the technical capabilities. However it’s by no means been finished earlier than in an actual battle.”
The MOP’s 22,000lb predecessor, the Huge Ordnance Air Blast or MOAB, colloquially referred to as the Mom of All Bombs, was much less highly effective however was used to devastating impact in Afghanistan in 2017. It was dropped on a cave complicated operated by an Islamic State affiliate in Nangarhar Province.
The MOP — which was developed from 2002, first deployed in 2011, and periodically upgraded since then — is an improved and extra focused model of the MOAB: its explosive cost is larger and is carried inside an especially inflexible metallic casing that permits for penetration earlier than explosion.
The US arsenal is believed to comprise about 20 MOPs. Every bomb prices about $4mn, based mostly on a 2011 $28mn US Air Power contract for eight of them.
Solely the B2 Spirit Stealth bomber is configured to hold and ship the MOP. There are 20 B2 bombers in service, in accordance with the US Air Power, every of them able to carrying two MOPs, one in every of its bomb bays.
The bomber, made by Northrop Grumman, has an unfuelled vary of 11,000km, or 19,000km with one mid-air refuelling — making nearly any goal on the planet reachable.
Regardless of the fearsome capabilities of each the MOP and B2 bomber, any mission to destroy the Fordow plant would face different tactical difficulties, Pape mentioned.
The primary is that to drop a couple of bomb on the power may require the B2 bomber to loiter above its goal, turning into susceptible to Iranian air defences.
“The B2 is a stealth bomber, nevertheless it’s designed to keep away from radar — it’s not stealthy in each side,” Pape mentioned. “For instance, it has a really flat backside — which may make it as susceptible as a 737 aircraft to anti-air missiles.”
The second problem would contain clearing a protected flight path for the B2 bomber to its goal. That might be finished by utilizing anti-radar cruise missiles that would take out any Iranian radar installations that Israeli forces haven’t already destroyed.
“However Iran might effectively have anticipated the US chopping such a hall,” Pape mentioned. “The bombing raid might effectively work — however it might should be launched into realizing that it has by no means been finished earlier than.”
Further graphics by Gaku Ito