The Kentucky Derby offers one of the most unique betting opportunities in the sport.
One reason: The race is 1 ¼ miles long and has up to 20 horses in the field. Because all of the horses are 3 years old, none have raced that distance yet. Combine that with a crowd of more than 100,000 in attendance at Churchill Downs, and the unexpected could happen.
Rich Strike was a last-minute addition to the field in 2022 due to scratches and won at 80-1 odds, paying $163.60 dollars to win on a $2 bet. Mystik Dan, an 18-1 shot, held on to win last year, while favored Fierceness finished 12th. Mystik Dan paid $39.22 to win on $2.
Essentially, it’s the one of the few races that draws attention from casual racing fans and the general public instead of only year-round fans. It’s the kind of race where bets based on the color of a horse are just as likely to be made as bets informed by weeks of handicapping.
To put it in numerical terms: When Mystik Dan came in third place in the Arkansas Derby last year to punch his ticket to Churchill Downs, the total “Win/Place/Show” pool — the amount of money placed on that type of bet at Oaklawn Park — was $2.4 million.
When he won the Kentucky Derby, the “Win/Place/Show” pool was $104 million.
That means there could be some big payouts, especially if Journalism, who is expected to be heavily favored going into this race, finishes off the board.
Here’s what you need to know.
Top storylines: what people are talking about
Katherine Terrell
Bob Baffert is back after three-year ban
Trainer Bob Baffert — who has won six runnings of the Kentucky Derby (including Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify) — was banned by Churchill Downs Inc. for three years and was recently reinstated. This came after his trainee Medina Spirit was disqualified from a win in the 2021 Derby due to a failed drug test. Medina Spirit died of a heart attack during a workout later that year.
Baffert has two horses in the race this year: Citizen Bull, who drew the rail (No. 1 post) and will be ridden by jockey Martin Garcia, and Rodriguez, who will break from the No. 4 post and will be ridden by Mike Smith. Expect both horses to be near the front and set the pace.
Smith, 59, could become the oldest jockey to win the Kentucky Derby, surpassing Bill Shoemaker, who was 54 when he won with Ferdinand in 1986. Smith has won the Kentucky Derby twice, including for Baffert on Justify in 2018.
Japanese Derby contenders have been making a push
Japan-based horses have become serious contenders in the past few years. Entry in the Kentucky Derby is based on points earned in prep races in the lead-up to the event.
A “Japan Road” to the Kentucky Derby was established in 2017, and horses shipped in from those races have improved every year. Japan-based Forever Young came in third in the Kentucky Derby last year, less than a length behind Mystik Dan.
The two Japanese contenders this year are Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe. Luxor Cafe, the son of American Pharoah, has won four straight races and is coming off an impressive five-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes in Japan on March 29.
Luxor Cafe will be making his North American debut, so it’s uncertain how he’ll handle the Churchill Downs surface, but he has certainly shown talent.
He has raced four times on a wet track — something to watch if it rains on Derby Day.
A race for the…old guys?
While Smith has a chance to make history as the oldest jockey, the field has plenty of seasoned trainers, too.
The oldest trainer to win the Kentucky Derby was Art Sherman, who was 77 when he won with California Chrome in 2014. Charlie Whittingham won with Sunday Silence in 1989 at age 76.
Lonnie Briley, a 72-year-old trainer from Louisiana, might have the most interesting story. Briley never had a graded stakes winner until he purchased Coal Battle for $70,000 in 2023. Coal Battle won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, but he will be a longshot in this race. Jockey Juan Vargas and owner Robbie Norman also are participating in their first Derby.
There’s also Baffert, who is 72, and Bill Mott, 71, who won the 2019 Kentucky Derby after Country House placed first following Maximum Security’s disqualification. Mott recently said that Sovereignty represents his “best chance” at crossing the wire first.
Don’t rule out John Shirreffs either, who is looking for his first Derby win since longshot Giacomo won at 50-1 odds in 2005, just before Shirreffs’ 60th birthday. Shirreffs — famous for training Hall of Fame mare Zenyatta — is hoping to get Baeza into the race, but he will only draw into the field if there’s a scratch.
None of that compares to D. Wayne Lukas, who has won the Derby four times, the Belmont Stakes four times and the Preakness Stakes seven times (most recently last year). He will enter American Promise this year and turn 90 in September.
What are the insiders saying?
Anita Marks
We are a few days away from the most exciting two minutes in sports. Here’s what the insiders are saying as we get closer to post time:
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Journalism: The favorite in the race is checking all the boxes. The best horse in terms of pedigree, speed and distance — but the best horse in the Derby doesn’t always win. At post time, the value will not be there to wager on him.
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Burnham Square: He’s getting a lot of love from handicappers after his impressive showing in the Blue Grass Stakes. The Derby has a lot of speed, and this could set up well for him to come from off the pace down the stretch. The value is there at 12-1.
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Bob Baffert’s return: Baffert has two horses running in the Derby, with Citizen Bull out of the No. 1 post and Rodriguez from the No. 4. Rodriguez, who won the Wood Memorial, gives Baffert the best chance at walking away with roses, but he will have to be very fast out of the gate.
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Final Gambit: My favorite long shot. This horse has never raced on dirt before, only turf — but this race sets up well for him. He has the speed to come off the pace, and he has been training well. This is the “wise guys” horse heading into the Derby.
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Chunk Of Gold: This is the “rags to riches” horse in this year’s Derby, as he was purchased for only $2,500. He finished second in the Louisiana Derby and worked with trainer Ethan West, who is only 32 years old.
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Two horses are expected to scratch before post time (Grande and American Promise): This opens the door for Baeza to enter the race. He’s the half brother to both Mage and Dornoch, and reigning champion jockey Flavien Prat will ride Baeza if he gets in. He is creating a lot of buzz.
How to bet the race
Katherine Terrell
About the above chart: A Beyer number is a ratings system for speed during races. Some think a horse needs at least one race where they run a 95 Beyer number or over to be competitive in the Derby. Many of these horses have races where they’ve run over a 100 Beyer number or better.
Go any way you want with this race. First time bettor who just wants to enjoy the experience? Take Coal Battle as the underdog pick with $2 “across the board.” It’ll cost $6 and pay out if he comes in first, second or third. Who doesn’t want to root for a good story?
If you can’t find a reason to bet against favored Journalism, then have a conviction and place money on him to finish first. Journalism will likely be a heavy favorite, so bet $20 to Win.
Or, if you want to get more into the nitty gritty, bet an exacta or trifecta box with Journalism on “top,” which means Journalism in the “win” position as the “key” and a number of horses underneath.
If you “key” a horse in a bet, that means you like it enough to be sure it will win. So, you’ll put a horse (and only that horse) in the top position in an exacta or trifecta. The more horses you add, the more money it costs. Then, put the horses you like next in the second position, then any horses that could hit the board in the third spot.
Try Journalism keyed over Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty and Baeza (if he draws in), and add Burnham Square, Grand, Tiztastic, Coal Battle, Sandman and Chunk of Gold in the third position for trifecta.
The total cost for a $2 exacta will be $12. Boxing Journalism, Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty and Baeza will cost $24 for a $2 bet.
A 50-cent trifecta box with Journalism over Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty and Baeza and Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty, Baeza, Burnham Square, Grande, Tiztastic, Coal Battle, Sandman, Final Gambit, Rodriguez and Chunk of Gold in the third positions will cost $30.
Want to beat the favorite? Luxor Cafe certainly has a lot of history to overcome, and he probably won’t get the same wide trips he’s gotten before in a field this big. But his last race was too impressive to ignore. And don’t ignore Sovereignty, who could bring a decent price for Hall of Fame trainer Mott. Throw down $10 or more “across the board” on either one of them if you want to go this route.
Take Me To The Window
Anita Marks
How am I playing the Derby? Exacta Box = 7, 8, 9
7. Luxor Cafe: Son of American Pharaoh, and he annihilated the competition in the Japanese Road to the Derby. He’s not as good as Forever Young and he’s only turf pedigree, but he could still be a huge surprise on Saturday.
8. Journalism: The best horse in the field, and he received a great draw at the 8 post. The No. 8 post has produced 9 winners since 1930, and he will have speed to his inside and outside, which will benefit him. He was bred for this distance, being the son of Curlin.
9. Burnham Square: Was very impressive in the Blue Grass Stakes, and he is getting a lot of love from handicappers. This race has a lot of speed and should benefit this horse to come from off the pace down the stretch.
