We’re all the way down to crunch time because the July 31 commerce deadline approaches.
This deadline would possibly lack a number of the potential pizzazz of earlier years, however keep in mind that the largest identify final yr — Garrett Crochet — ended up not getting traded till the offseason. However this subsequent week ought to nonetheless be fascinating, particularly if the Arizona Diamondbacks go all-in on buying and selling a few of their key gamers heading into free company.
Utilizing ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan’s commerce deadline preview as a information, let’s conduct a bit train: take 10 of the largest names who might transfer and see how the dominoes would possibly fall. It is one-third prediction, one-third science and one-third leisure. Final yr, we nailed solely one of many 10 names accurately (Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers), though seven of the gamers listed have been in reality traded.
Let’s begin with probably essentially the most coveted participant of this yr’s deadline — going to one of many sport’s greatest giants.
Suarez just isn’t solely the most popular hitter who may be traded — he has 36 residence runs if you have not been paying consideration — however seems to be like one of the best participant accessible, barring a blockbuster deal for a pitcher similar to Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore. Let’s begin the dominoes with Suarez, particularly since a number of contenders might use an improve at third base:
With Jazz Chisholm Jr. transferring to second base, the Yankees are faking third base with the likes of Oswald Peraza and Jorbit Vivas.
The Seattle Mariners have rookie Ben Williamson, a great defender who has hit one residence run in 78 video games and has a sub-.300 OBP.
Cubs third basemen — that is principally rookie Matt Shaw — have three residence runs all season and the bottom OPS within the majors.
The Detroit Tigers are close to the underside of the majors in offensive manufacturing at third, though Zach McKinstry has been taking part in there of late and was an All-Star. Within the greater image, the Tigers’ offense has slumped badly in July after practically everybody overperformed within the first half, so the entrance workplace may be wanting so as to add an impression bat similar to Suarez and return McKinstry to a utility function.
The Milwaukee Brewers churned by way of third basemen early, however Caleb Durbin has performed nicely of late.
And in order for you a darkish horse, contemplate the New York Mets, the place Mark Vientos hasn’t replicated his massive numbers from 2024 and Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio have performed extra recently, though they have not hit a lot both. Certainly, with Francisco Lindor struggling the previous month, the Mets would possibly want one other hitter.
So, who will get Suarez? The Tigers and Cubs are most likely extra targeted on pitching assist. The Mariners have a superb farm system with 9 top-100 prospects and know Suarez nicely after he performed there in 2022 and ’23, however their offense does lead the majors in highway OPS. Given the best way they function, they may not be keen to commerce a type of high prospects for a half-a-season participant — and there is a cheap argument that the one approach they’ll catch the Houston Astros anyway is for his or her rotation to start out pitching higher.
That leaves the Yankees. Normal supervisor Brian Cashman has stated the Yankees are “going to go to city” on the commerce deadline, suggesting they want a beginning pitcher, bullpen assist and an infielder. The offense has been higher once more in July after scuffling in June, however Aaron Choose might nonetheless use some assist. There may be an air of desperation as nicely with the Yankees, because the Toronto Blue Jays handed them within the standings, and Suarez is clearly an ideal match for his or her gaping gap at third.
2. Diamondbacks commerce Josh Naylor to Mariners
Naylor is one other of Arizona’s pending free brokers and he’ll value quite a bit lower than Suarez. Heck, if the Mariners are keen to tackle the salaries — unlikely, though if they provide a robust bundle of prospects, perhaps Arizona kicks in some money — they might purchase each Naylor and Suarez and construct a deadly lineup with Suarez hitting behind Cal Raleigh.
Absent that fanciful pondering, Naylor nonetheless is sensible as a stable contact hitter for a crew that ranks within the backside 10 of the majors in strikeout price. Luke Raley can slide to proper discipline or a bench function. The Mariners additionally want some bullpen depth and maybe a right-handed bat that would offer an improve over Dylan Moore or Donovan Solano, however Naylor could be a pleasant addition, nonetheless.
One key cause to not rule out Suarez to Detroit: Historical past suggests the groups making the largest offers on the commerce deadline aren’t those chasing a playoff spot or just making an attempt to carry on to a wild-card berth, however these groups already in first place. The Tigers know they’ll the postseason; they need to make their crew higher for October. A crew that is not assured a playoff spot is risking future worth for a playoff run that may not exist.
On the minimal, the Tigers will probably be including to a bullpen that has been hemorrhaging runs of late. Will Vest has remained stable, however Tommy Kahnle had been their different late-game high-leverage reliever and he simply had a current run of 9 runs allowed over three outings. Bednar, a two-time All-Star, has rediscovered his really feel and command after a tough 2024. He additionally comes with a further season of crew management. The opposite high relievers who may be accessible embody Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians, and Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax of the Minnesota Twins, however do not search for an intradivision commerce there.
The place do our first three dominoes go away the Cubs? They may nonetheless improve third base, though the choices are considerably restricted after Suarez. They wish to add a beginning pitcher to a rotation that ranks simply outdoors the highest 10 within the majors in ERA however may be thought-about unstable past Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. Passan has the Cubs maybe pondering actually massive and going after Gore or Ryan, or the Pirates’ Mitch Keller, however we’ll play it a bit extra conservatively.
Of the pitchers heading to free company, Lugo is one of the best mixture of “good” and “more likely to be traded,” and the Cubs must be the crew most keen to supply what’s wanted to get him. They’ve a championship-caliber lineup and protection, plus the bullpen has been stable. Their farm system power is on the place participant facet, which additionally matches up with the Royals’ wants. The one potential situation right here: Neither Boyd nor Imanaga common a strikeout per inning, and neither does Lugo, so there may be some concern about how that rotation performs within the postseason — therefore, the “assume massive” thought of Gore or Ryan, even when it means emptying the farm system.
5. Twins commerce Griffin Jax to Mets
One assure of the commerce deadline: The Mets will add to the bullpen, most likely with multiple commerce. Although the rotation nonetheless ranks fifth in ERA, that was constructed off a sizzling begin. Extra importantly, the one Mets starter to finish six innings since June 7 has been David Peterson. In consequence, supervisor Carlos Mendoza has run relievers Reed Garrett, Huascar Brazoban, Jose Butto and Ryne Stanek into the bottom. The bullpen had a 2.78 ERA by way of Might, however that determine is over 5.00 because the starting of June (rating close to the underside of the majors).
The Twins have two high-profile relievers in Duran and Jax, each of whom are below crew management by way of 2027, so that they’ll be far more costly than your normal short-term relievers if the Twins resolve to commerce one or each. Duran could be more durable to deal — however convey extra in return — so we’ll say Jax will go. Do not be fooled by his 4.09 ERA: He has 68 strikeouts and 12 walks in 44 innings with a 97-mph heater. He is an elite strikeout reliever, the sort you need on the mound in October.
6. Guardians commerce Steven Kwan to Dodgers
OK, now it is time for some enjoyable. We all know the Dodgers will do one thing, proper? They virtually at all times do — and it is normally one thing important. It might be a reliever, since Tanner Scott has scuffled at occasions (and was additionally simply placed on the injured listing due to left elbow irritation, although his MRI confirmed no ligament injury) and Michael Kopech is injured. To not point out their bullpen woes have been on full show recently. It might be a starter, though they’re lastly trending a bit more healthy there. So, how about an outfielder and a leadoff hitter?
The reasoning right here: Michael Conforto simply hasn’t labored out. The Dodgers have given him 300 plate appearances and he is hitting below .200, plus he is not a great left fielder. They may additionally use a leadoff hitter. They simply moved Mookie Betts there in entrance of Shohei Ohtani, trying to get Betts going, however Betts simply hasn’t been an offensive power in 2025 and should not be hitting on the high of a lineup proper now. Kwan would repair each points and provides them a pleasant OBP man in entrance of Ohtani whereas offering a serious defensive improve.
Would Cleveland commerce Kwan? Jeff and Kiley McDaniel ranked him No. 2 on ESPN’s up to date listing of the highest 50 commerce candidates, though admittedly gave only a 20% probability that he could be traded. He is below crew management by way of 2027 and is making $4.1 million this season, with a giant elevate due subsequent yr. The Guardians additionally want energy and the Dodgers might supply a pleasant bundle of prospects, perhaps beginning with catcher Dalton Speeding or a possible power-hitting outfielder similar to Zyhir Hope or Eduardo Quintero (high prospect Josue De Paula might be off limits).
7. Pirates commerce Mitch Keller to Purple Sox
The Keller rumors maintain selecting up steam. He is signed by way of 2028, though one of these controllable pitcher isn’t — ever? — traded on the deadline. However the Pirates would possibly view this as their finest alternative so as to add some much-needed offense. As Passan wrote, the Blue Jays additionally make numerous sense for Keller, with Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer headed to free company after this season after which Kevin Gausman after 2026.
However the Purple Sox have a surplus of outfielders already within the majors and extra hitting prospects within the minors, so that they line up as a possible match with Pittsburgh. This might be an old style problem commerce with the Purple Sox providing Jarren Duran, who matches Keller in being below crew management by way of 2028. Or perhaps the Pirates would need a number of gamers — Kristian Campbell has been squeezed out of a spot within the Boston lineup, for instance, and Excessive-A infielder Franklin Arias could be another choice.
It is admittedly extra doubtless the Purple Sox do one thing smaller, not wishing to interrupt up their present momentum. Supervisor Alex Cora has managed to maintain everybody lively, together with beginning Ceddanne Rafaela at second base a few occasions lately (though you hate taking his glove out of heart discipline). Or do not rule out including a primary baseman, similar to Naylor or Ryan O’Hearn. Abraham Toro has achieved OK filling in for injured Triston Casas, however his monitor report suggests he might regress at any second.
8. Orioles commerce Ryan O’Hearn to Astros
Talking of O’Hearn, he is one among a number of gamers the Orioles will look to commerce — and may be the one who will generate essentially the most curiosity. The Astros nonetheless maintain a six-game lead within the AL West, persevering with to play nicely by way of an extended listing of accidents, however basic supervisor Dana Brown has talked about the necessity to add a left-handed hitter. O’Hearn might play left discipline for the Astros, who’ve been utilizing Cooper Hummel, Taylor Trammell and defensive legal responsibility Jose Altuve within the outfield recently. Even when the injured Yordan Alvarez makes it again, Altuve might then slide again to second base.
The Padres are one of many potential touchdown spots for O’Hearn as they appear to spice up an offense that ranks within the backside third of the NL in runs scored. Since we have now O’Hearn going to the Astros, the domino falls to Ozuna going to the Padres to fill their DH gap (they do not have an everyday there). His $16 million wage — or about $5.4 million over the ultimate two months — may be a bit steep for the Padres, however we all know that basic supervisor A.J. Preller will do one thing. He at all times does. Ozuna’s energy numbers are down this season, plus he has been horrible the previous two months, so there’s some threat right here, however he had an OBP over .400 in April and Might.
10. Diamondbacks commerce Merrill Kelly to Blue Jays
The Blue Jays simply maintain successful, regardless of a rotation that ranks within the backside third within the majors in ERA (Eric Lauer has been their finest starter of late). We have now them lacking out on Lugo and Keller, partially as a result of their farm system is not thought-about significantly sturdy, so the ultimate domino on our listing is Kelly going to Toronto. Passan had good reasoning as to why the Diamondbacks could be extra more likely to commerce Kelly than Gallen. Each are free brokers, however Arizona might look to re-sign the older (and thus cheaper) Kelly within the offseason whereas protecting Gallen and giving him a qualifying supply to recoup a draft decide if he leaves as a free agent.
Quite a few contenders did not land one of many 10 greatest names in our train however might actually nonetheless be concerned within the commerce market. The Philadelphia Phillies, who simply signed David Robertson for the bullpen, might nonetheless add one other reliever and perhaps an outfielder. The Texas Rangers have not gone away and might be in that O’Hearn/Naylor combine for a primary baseman (and the reduction market as nicely). The San Francisco Giants might add a beginning pitcher — Zack Littell could be a semi-big splash, with Charlie Morton and Zach Eflin two extra Orioles who might be traded.
That is it for our recreation of dominoes. Now, it is time for the motion to start.