It all comes down to this. The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets host the St. Louis Blues in the 200th Game 7 in Stanley Cup playoffs history Sunday (7 p.m. ET, TBS).
One team will advance to the second round, while the other will get an early start to the offseason — and try to fix what went wrong.
For the Blues, this is the club’s 19th all-time Game 7, the most of any non-Original Six team. They have gone 10-8 in Games 7s, with the most recent one being the 2019 Stanley Cup Final against the Boston Bruins, which they won 4-1.
This version of the Jets has much less Game 7 history on which to draw; their only Game 7 was a second-round victory over the Nashville Predators in 2018.
Who wins this one? We’ve gathered the ESPN hockey family to identify the key players to watch in the contest — as well as their final score predictions.
Who is the one key player you’ll be watching in Jets-Blues?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: If he plays, it’s Mark Scheifele. The hit in Game 5 from Brayden Schenn and/or Radek Faksa generated quite a bit of conversation about what is arguably the most physically demanding series in the first round. Scheifele’s play this season and this series prior to the hit reinforces what makes him a legit top-line center in this league. We saw how the Jets maneuvered around his absence for the final two periods of Game 5, while Game 6 proved why they need contributions from everyone if he can’t go.
But again, that’s if Scheifele plays. He skated Saturday in a tracksuit, with Scott Arniel saying the center will be a game-time decision Sunday.
Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Connor Hellebuyck is the obvious answer here for me because he’s been “Vezina” at home (especially Game 2) and “Vezina from Temu” on the road.
Hellebuyck has allowed four or more goals in seven straight road playoff games, which ties the second longest such streak in Stanley Cup playoff history. But Game 7 is at home. The pressure is on but he’s in comfortable confines, surrounded by a “Whiteout.” Which version of Hellebuyck do we get Sunday night?
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Connor Hellebuyck, of course. Has there been a Jekyll/Hyde performance like this in recent years?
The Vezina finalist can play lights-out at home and like a fish out of water on the road. Does that trend continue in Game 7? What version of the goalie shows up for this one?
But as a bonus, I’ll toss Pavel Buchnevich into this equation. He’s been driving the Blues’ offense, and if Hellebuyck is on his A-game then St. Louis is going to need Buchnevich to channel his hat trick energy from Game 3 to help the Blues pull off a stunning road win.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: Jordan Binnington renewed his title as one of the NHL’s most clutch goaltenders with his 31-save performance in Team Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off championship win over the U.S. — including six saves in overtime. He first earned it in 2019, backstopping the Blues to the Stanley Cup with Game 7 wins over Dallas and Boston.
Now he’s got a chance to reestablish those credentials.
Binnington had a 0.82 goals-against average and a .968 save percentage in those prior Game 7s. While Hellebuyck has been terrible in St. Louis, Binnington hasn’t been much better in Winnipeg, generating an .861 save percentage and a 3.44 goals-against average and giving up four goals in two of the three games. But as 4 Nations showed, Binnington can meet the moment. (Although this time, Kyle Connor will actually be in the lineup for the opposition. Not that we’re bitter or anything.)
The final score will be _____.
Clark: 4-3 Jets. There have been a few themes in this series. The first being that offense hasn’t been an issue — the teams have combined to score more than six goals in all but one game. The second is that the home team has won every game; I say that continues, and the Jets advance.
Öcal: 6-5 Jets. Hellebyuck doesn’t have his best game, but the Jets outscore that challenge, and Kyle Connor scores another third-period goal in this series to win it.
Shilton: 5-4 Jets. The Jets have been too good on home ice to let this one slip away. That’s not to say a St. Louis win would be surprising, but even if Hellebuyck is off, Winnipeg’s offense should be able to provide enough buffer that the Jets can squeak through with a narrow victory to advance.
Wyshynski: 5-3 Jets. The Jets would be toast if this game were played in St. Louis because it’s a demonstrable fact that Hellebuyck is a disaster on the road in the playoffs. He’s slightly below replacement at home in the postseason, but Winnipeg will take that considering his three removals on the road.
The Blues are first in the playoffs in 5-on-5 offense and goals-for percentage at home. But Winnipeg is second in both categories. Hellebuyck calms down, and the offense gets ratcheted up at home, especially now that Nikolaj Ehlers has a game under his belt, having not played since April 12 due to a foot injury.
