It’s common knowledge that intensity increases in the postseason, but there’s also a tremendous amount of nuance, of little things that make the difference between an extended run and an early vacation. The competition is better, the stakes are higher and the margins are thinner.
Star play often brands series, but nuance can frequently define them — anything from an unheralded player, a coach’s tactics or an aspect of play that tips the balance of a crucial game.
Here are six potential X factors in the NBA playoffs’ second round:
The Celtics have barely broken a sweat in the playoffs over their past five series. But their revolving list of players on the injury report could prove to be vital over the next six weeks, if they get that far.
Last spring, Kristaps Porzingis played in only seven of the Celtics’ 19 playoff games, but his 20 points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals were critical. This season, valued defender Jrue Holiday played in his fewest games in four campaigns and missed three playoff games in the first round against the Orlando Magic with a hamstring injury. Jaylen Brown (knee) and Jayson Tatum (wrist) are managing issues that have recently cost them games this postseason.
The length of the Celtics’ IR list might be the only factor that can slow the defending champs.
Rick Carlisle’s experience
The Indiana Pacers coach was ejected during a 2024 playoff loss to the New York Knicks then stayed up until the early hours working with staff to send 78 video clips to the league office questioning calls.
It might seem like typical whining, but it was part of a greater strategy to wear down the opponent, be it referees or the other team.
The calls evened out in that series, and the deeper and healthier Pacers outlasted the Knicks in seven games to advance to the franchise’s first Eastern Conference finals since 2014. Carlisle has coached over 150 playoff games, and last year’s upset of the Knicks wasn’t his first; remember the 2011 NBA Finals with his Dallas Mavericks running through the Western Conference playoffs before beating the Miami Heat in LeBron James‘ first season in South Beach. And Carlisle has consistently demonstrated a savvy ability to make adjustments and refine strategy.
The Pacers will be an underdog in every series going forward, but Carlisle knows that role well.
“Playoff Jimmy” is a true difference-maker, and there should have been zero surprise when he posted 20 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists in the Golden State Warriors‘ Game 7 win at the Houston Rockets given his history in closeout games.
Butler had 28 points for the Heat in a Game 7 road win during the conference finals against Boston in 2023. He registered 42 points to close out the Milwaukee Bucks on the road that same postseason. In 2022, his 47-point, 9-rebound, 8-assist, 4-steal Game 6 in a Heat victory at Boston was one of the top moments of those playoffs; he put up 32 points to close out the 76ers in Philadelphia one round earlier.
When there’s a vital away playoff game, Butler’s value increases even more.
The Cleveland Cavaliers star has the seventh-highest scoring average in NBA playoff history (minimum of 50 games) at 27.9.
He has now scored 30 or more points in eight consecutive Game 1s, breaking a record he previously held with Michael Jordan.
Mitchell can score in high-leverage moments. But there is a fine line between that and volume production. When the Cavs lost Game 1 to the Pacers on Sunday, Mitchell had his usual 33 points, but it took 30 shots to get there.
Cleveland trailed the entire game, and Mitchell tried very hard to rescue his squad, a trend that has been repeated in his career. When Mitchell takes 30 or more shots in a playoff game, his team is 1-5. Last season, for example, he scored 50 points during a playoff game in Orlando and took 36 shots in a losing effort.
He also was 1-of-11 from the 3-point line on Sunday. When he takes 11 or more 3s during playoff games, his teams are 2-7. He did it twice against the Celtics last season, leading to two losses.
McDaniels had perhaps the best two weeks of his career in the first round for the Minnesota Timberwolves, averaging a whopping 17.4 points on 57% shooting in the five-game series win over the Los Angeles Lakers.
But the reason he has a $130 million contract is his defense — and he is the defensive plan for the Warriors’ Stephen Curry in the second round. McDaniels guarded Curry on 161 possessions during the regular season. That’s not just the most this season, not just the most of any defender on any player this season; it’s the third most Curry has been guarded by an opponent in the past decade, per ESPN Research.
Curry took 53 shots against McDaniels this season and had an effective field goal percentage of 53%, well below his season-low average of 57%.
McDaniels’ lateral quickness and size, at 6-foot-9, is a factor. But the challenge with Curry is how constantly he’s on the move. The two-time MVP ran 1.99 miles in the Warriors’ Game 7 win in Houston. McDaniels will have his hands full chasing after Curry all series.
No one thinks of the Nuggets as a “fast” team, probably because star Nikola Jokic is known for his lumbering style. But they are deceivingly fast.
In fact, they led the league in fast-break points per game this season at 20.1. Jokic doesn’t lead or, frankly, finish many fast breaks. But he knows the ball can move faster than the man, and his precision full-court passes are a primary weapon in the Nuggets’ offense.
It is particularly important against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are a brilliant defensive team in the half court but are vulnerable in transition. The Thunder led the NBA in points allowed in transition this season at 12.3 per game.
