It is good to be again.
The Tuesday column has been quiet since Week 1, as I took paternity go away following the arrival of my second child. She’s actual stinkin’ cute, and her massive sister loves her (if maybe just a little too enthusiastically at instances). Thanks to everybody who despatched nicely needs.
At first, it was simple to spend time pushing strollers and altering diapers whereas the 2025 NFL season whisked on. However after six weeks of preserving my mouth shut — a really Herculean activity for an NFL analyst throughout a season — I am bursting on the seams with takes. I wish to speak about that Cardinals implosion towards the Titans, and Jaxson Dart’s debut towards the Chargers, and that ridiculous 40-40 time beyond regulation end between Inexperienced Bay and Dallas. However there may be solely a lot time.
I shaved all of it right down to my 4 greatest, most pressing takes from two months of NFL silence. Then I submitted my commerce deadline want checklist, answered a few of your questions and ended the column with some Subsequent Ben Stats. Let’s hit the bottom working.
Bounce to a bit:
The Huge Factor: Takes I can not wait to debate
4 trades that have to occur
Mailbag: Answering questions from … you
Subsequent Ben Stats: Wild Week 8 stats
The Huge Factor: 4 first-half takes I can not wait to speak by means of
Each week, this column will kick off with one huge take a look at a key sport, participant or development from the earlier slate of NFL motion. What does it imply for the remainder of the season? This week, we checked out 4 issues which were on my thoughts since my final column — approach again earlier than Week 2.
I perceive why Bears followers are annoyed. When Williams was chosen with the primary decide within the 2024 NFL draft, he got here with superb fanfare. But thus far in his profession, he has been dramatically outproduced by the second (Jayden Daniels) and third (Drake Maye) picks. On movie, they’ve outplayed him, too. We get constant Sunday reminders of what may have been.
In that frustration, the power to calibrate to Williams’ play has been misplaced. As a result of he has been comparatively disappointing, that should imply he’s outright disappointing. I strongly disagree. He has been good this season. We’ve not seen the issues that have been promised — stupendous, life-changing, franchise-resurrecting play — however he hasn’t been unhealthy. Not simply first rate — higher than first rate. He has been good!
By EPA per dropback, Williams is nearly common for the season at 0.03. For perspective, Baker Mayfield — whom some have been calling an MVP candidate by means of September — is at 0.05. Daniels is at 0.02, as is Jaxson Dart. Put one other approach: If Williams have been performing final season as he’s this season, Bears followers would doubtless really feel inspired and excited to see his improvement.
Williams suffers just a little in success charge — 42.1%, beneath league common — which is an effective proxy for the down-to-down consistency of the passing sport. However he excels in explosive go charge at 17.8%, seventh highest amongst all quarterbacks. That is intuitive. The Bears’ passing sport has felt harmful however extremely risky by means of eight weeks. A few of that belongs to Williams, who has had unhealthy accuracy sprays on key downs focusing on simple routes. The top-of-game miss to DJ Moore behind the tip zone Sunday towards the Ravens is a good instance.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2025
In fact, it is a disagreement in chemistry greater than a bodily deficiency. Williams needs Moore to maintain working throughout the tip line; Moore stops at a landmark and covers himself with the linebacker in entrance of him. A few of Williams’ perceived inconsistency belongs to his lack of chemistry together with his receivers (particularly Moore, going again to final season) — and that could be a shared burden. It does not fall on Williams alone.
Another excuse Williams’ play is herky-jerky belongs to teach Ben Johnson and the character of the Bears’ passing sport. Chicago is sixth in run charge over expectation. As a staff, it’s in search of a constant floor sport to arrange an explosive passing assault.
That philosophical selection is not simply to guard Williams but in addition to guard the offensive line. For the reason that Bears flipped left sort out from Braxton Jones to Theo Benedet in Week 6, they’re third in run charge over expectation. In that very same three-week span, their designed rollout share of 16.3% can also be third. They’re working the soccer, making an attempt to maneuver the pocket and insulating their younger left sort out, and so they’re asking Williams to increase downfield throws than are required of different quarterbacks.
This is not a nasty method — in truth, it is good. It performs to Williams’ strengths (arm expertise, throw on transfer) whereas concealing staff weaknesses. But it surely means Williams’ numbers and lowlights look worse than these of different younger quarterbacks (equivalent to Bo Nix and Daniels) who’re given extra beneath alternatives.
Typically, when a staff has such a high-profile quarterback as Williams, all of its selections — playcalling, sport administration, personnel strikes — get filtered by means of the QB. It is a simple lure to fall into, but it surely’s not often correct. After I watch the primary half of the Bears’ season, I see Johnson working to guard his offensive line greater than his quarterback.
I see a irritating backfield, too. D’Andre Swift, who was so sizzling coming into Week 8, missed a simple learn for a landing run on the primary drive (which resulted in a area objective) and blew a few go protections, one in all which created an intentional grounding penalty. Even with the appreciable enchancment of the Bears’ working sport the previous few weeks, Williams continues to be going through a median third-down distance of 8.7 yards — second longest within the league.
These third downs aren’t simply lengthy due to an inconsistent working sport. The Bears are additionally probably the most penalized offenses in soccer. Once more, a few of that belongs to Williams, who runs the operation on the line of scrimmage. However not all of it.
Williams has lots to enhance. He should be extra correct on layup throws, which he’s clearly speeding and overthinking. His hurried releases stem from a rookie season by which he held the ball far too lengthy and took too many unhealthy sacks. However discover the expansion from Yr 1 to Yr 2. He has halved his sack charge, from 10% in 2024 to beneath 5% this season. The extra he is capable of belief his go safety, the smoother these throws will turn into.
Within the meantime, here is a reminder of what he’s able to doing. This isn’t merely an incredible throw, however a spectacular one — one which possibly six or seven quarterbacks are capable of pull off. It is dropped, although, and one other potential landing drive ends in a area objective try.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2025
It’d seem to be Williams is destined for a similar path as Kyler Murray or Trevor Lawrence — a first-round decide proficient sufficient to get a giant second contract however not constant sufficient to ever win with that cap weight hanging round his neck. We would ultimately find yourself there. However even Murray and Lawrence weren’t and will not be as bodily proficient as this. As such, I’ve another profession arc comp to make: Josh Allen.
By Allen’s first two professional seasons, he had an off-target charge of 23.5%. Williams is at 21.3%. Like Williams, Allen was clearly bodily succesful of creating all of the requisite throws. However he was excitable within the pocket, his mechanics vacillated from throw to throw, and his shot choice was excessive problem. The sunshine bulb went on for Allen in Yr 3 underneath Brian Daboll — and after loads of personal offseason work on his mechanics. The sunshine bulb can come on for Williams simply the identical, if he does the work, and the football-consuming public provides him the time.
We acted just like the Vikings’ Sam Darnold choice was simple … it wasn’t
The 2024 season was simply the most effective of Darnold’s profession. But it surely ended on a bitter word. In Week 18, Minnesota misplaced the NFC’s No. 1 seed to the Lions in a 31-9 defeat; the staff was then booted from the playoffs by the Rams 27-9 within the wild-card spherical.
Of Darnold’s 18 begins final season, he had solely three video games with successful charge beneath 40%, two of which have been the above losses. He had solely two video games with a EPA per dropback beneath minus-0.5 — once more, these two losses.
When season turned to offseason and contract time got here round, the bounds on Darnold appeared accordingly apparent. He had been pressured closely in these two losses to NFC contenders — charges of 48.9% and 52.0%, respectively. Would he all the time wilt underneath strain? Would he by no means beat the hardest defenses underneath the brightest lights?
On the time, I believed the Vikings ought to re-sign Darnold to a modest deal. If he beat out J.J. McCarthy in camp, nice. The Vikings would have a commerce chip in McCarthy and a stable veteran quarterback, nonetheless solely 28 years outdated. If McCarthy beat him out in camp, nice. The Vikings would have a commerce chip in Darnold and a stable rookie-contract quarterback.
Given the uncertainty round JJ McCarthy (well being + rookie) and the truth that Darnold will doubtless be in a worse setting if he goes elsewhere, it actually feels just like the optimum consequence for Minnesota + Sam is extending Darnold on Baker-sized deal.
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) January 14, 2025
However after these two ugly nationally televised, high-stakes defeats, the general public response was clear and unanimous: no shot. It made no sense to pay Darnold with McCarthy ready within the wings to take over on an inexpensive contract. Flip the keys over now.
I do not convey this as much as victory-lap a superb take. The truth is, the second half of that tweet — that Darnold would virtually actually land in a worse offensive system, and his play would decline — is a complete miss. When the Seahawks ultimately signed Darnold after buying and selling Geno Smith away, I panned it as one of many offseason’s worst errors: a transparent downgrade at quarterback for not a lot cap financial savings. Mistaken! Very unsuitable!
However Darnold’s departure from Minnesota reminds us about threat and uncertainty within the NFL — how exhausting it’s to get the bona fide “man” at quarterback, and the way simple it’s to idiot your self that the following man is bona fide simply the identical.
Minnesota had the fowl within the hand. Not a Patrick Mahomes or a Lamar Jackson, in fact — however so far as a staff may be sure about this stuff, the Vikings have been sure they may put a profitable offense on the sector with Darnold. Get left sort out Christian Darrisaw again, and so they may have made an actual run at this factor in 2025. However the plan had been to make use of McCarthy’s low cost quarterback contract to spend on the remainder of the roster. Prolong defensive backs Byron Murphy II and Joshua Metellus. Signal Will Fries and Ryan Kelly on the offensive line. Signal Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen on the line of defense.
These free brokers, together with McCarthy, have been the 2 birds within the bush. We know that early drafted rookie quarterbacks can bust in spectacular vogue. We know that massive free agent contracts can fail spectacularly. (Perhaps the Darnold deal would have!) However Minnesota ran to the better uncertainty anyway.
It was a defensible transfer, but it surely invited a lot threat — not simply that McCarthy was good, however that he would return from his knee harm wholesome. And that the cash saved at quarterback and spent elsewhere would truly enhance the roster. Think about the Harrison Phillips commerce, by which the Vikings jettisoned their greatest defensive sort out from final season this previous August; the run protection would certainly like to see Phillips again now, would not it? Think about the Adam Thielen commerce — a future fourth-rounder spent to insulate the receiving room towards three video games of a Jordan Addison suspension. Thielen has 5 catches this season.
Minnesota did not make these errors as a result of it let Darnold out the door. And the guide just isn’t shut on McCarthy, who has simply two begins underneath his belt. But it surely’s closing rapidly, all whereas Darnold is shredding in Seattle, a completely developed passer from his failed Jets period due to the yr he spent underneath Kevin O’Connell’s tutelage.
That is nearly as unhealthy of a runout because the Vikings may have gotten on their March choice — a a lot trickier one than many gave it credit score for on the time. It may have gone the opposite approach, but it surely did not. And now Minnesota is scrambling for an offensive id and a return to competition.
1:09
Bart Scott calls out Vikings for QB ‘malpractice’
Bart Scott calls out the Vikings for his or her struggles on the quarterback place and losing away Justin Jefferson’s prime.
By the primary half of the season, Drake Maye is the MVP
In six of the 9 seasons of NFL Subsequent Gen Stats’ existence, the regular-season chief in whole dropback EPA has received the MVP. The present chief in dropback EPA is … Colts QB Daniel Jones, by some extent. However simply behind him — and forward of him earlier than Jones obtained to play the Titans for the second time this season — is Maye, the Patriots’ second-year QB.
In fact, MVP shouldn’t be determined by one quantity. However one of many foremost causes Maye has a lot dropback EPA is as a result of his working sport continuously places him in tough spots. On non-QB runs this season, the Patriots are averaging 3.8 yards per carry (twenty sixth) and have a 35.3% success charge (thirtieth).
Evaluate that working sport, and the impact it has on Maye, to different MVP candidates like Jones or Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. On common, Maye faces 7.6 yards to go on third down (the league common is 7.5). Prescott has the third-shortest third downs at 6.8 yards; Jones is second at 6.5. But on third and fourth downs, Maye is second within the league in EPA per dropback and seventh in first down/landing charge.
It’s crucial to grasp simply how a lot Maye is carrying right here. Detractors spotlight a smooth schedule of opposing defenses. However in apparent go conditions, there is no such thing as a quarterback taking part in higher. On performs with an NFL Subsequent Gen Stats pre-snap go likelihood of 75% or larger — performs by which the protection is anticipating go, and dialing up blitzes and protection rotations and different shenanigans — Maye is first in EPA per dropback, second in success charge and second in passer ranking. Absolute nails.
This comes with a receiver room that, even when it is higher than anticipated, clearly just isn’t the loadbearing wall of the passing assault. As anticipated for a Josh McDaniels-led offense, the Patriots unfold their targets round. Stefon Diggs leads the staff with 50 targets, however Hunter Henry (36), Kayshon Boutte (30), Mack Hollins (23) and DeMario Douglas (23) will not be far behind. Diggs was a WR3 in Houston final season, and the 31-year-old was out there for nearly two weeks in free company earlier than the Patriots signed him. Boutte and Douglas have been each sixth-round picks.
All have performed nice and deserve credit score, Diggs particularly. However when Brock Purdy led the league in passing EPA in 2023, his All-Star supporting solid made it robust to credit score him with MVP votes. No such concern exists with Maye.
The offensive line? Put the working sport struggles apart, and Maye is tenth within the league in fast strain charge, which speaks to a porous offensive line. Maye nonetheless wants to enhance in his sack avoidance; his sack-to-pressure ratio is 24.8%, up there with quarterbacks equivalent to Carson Wentz, Cam Ward, Jalen Hurts and Dart, however this passing sport is actually not buoyed by the offensive line, both.
Typically, the MVP is handed to the quarterback of the staff that received essentially the most video games. Fourteen of the previous 15 MVP winners have been quarterbacks, and 11 of them from the highest seed of their convention. That is an unlucky consequence of the ever-putrefying state of quarterback discourse, by which any passer with 300 passing yards will need to have performed nicely, and definitely the profitable quarterback outplayed the shedding one in any given sport.
If we wrest the dialog away from wins and return it to worth, we will take a extra sincere take a look at which gamers have really been essentially the most valuable to their groups and might introduce deserving gamers into the dialog. Gamers like Prescott and Justin Herbert, who’re taking part in the most effective soccer of their careers for imperfect groups caught round .500. Gamers like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jonathan Taylor, who’re destined to by no means win this award as a result of they do not play quarterback, however whose quarterbacks would by no means look so “invaluable” with out them.
For now, Maye would possibly match the normal argument. He’s among the many league leaders in dropback EPA and is piloting the 6-2 Patriots within the race for the No. 1 seed. However Maye will probably be very excessive on my (fictional) MVP poll when the season ends not for these causes — however quite for the way a lot he is doing with how little he has at his disposal. What a invaluable participant.
We have to have a good time one Colts assistant I by no means see talked about
This summer time, after I spoke to Colts head coach Shane Steichen in coaching camp, we talked in regards to the stuff you would have anticipated. The Jones vs. Anthony Richardson Sr. coaching camp battle. How you can put together the offenses in a different way for these two passers. How you can break up coaching camp reps. And once we pivoted from the quarterback, different dialog factors have been what you’d anticipate, too. The readiness of rookie tight finish Tyler Warren. The huge receiver rotation.
I introduced up the offensive line on the finish. It wasn’t a giant story outdoors of Indianapolis, however the departures of Kelly and Fries left two units of massive footwear to fill, and the Colts have been turning to younger, middle-round draftees Tanor Bortolini and Matt Goncalves to fill these spots. After I was talking to Steichen, each have been contemporary off a preseason sport towards the Ravens that wasn’t precisely stellar for both.
So I requested in regards to the challenges of a first-year middle setting protections with two quarterbacks and a school sort out transitioning to protect. Steichen simply shrugged and mentioned “Nicely, we have now Tony, so …”
“Tony” is Tony Sparano Jr., son of the late Tony Sparano. This remark caught in my head as a result of I did not charge him as an automated offensive lineman generator. The nice offensive line coaches — Dante Scarnecchia, Jeff Stoutland, Aaron Kromer — may conjure up high quality begins from late-round backups or develop profession busts into stable gamers. Sparano was a full-time offensive line coach for the primary time.
2:38
Wealthy Eisen: Jonathan Taylor is the NFL MVP proper now
Wealthy Eisen weighs in on the sturdy begin to the season by Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and the Colts.
Nicely, right here we’re. Bortolini has been clearly higher by means of eight weeks than Kelly was final season. He’s the writer of lots of Taylor’s greatest runs, and whereas go safety is not the energy of his sport, he has improved from Week 1. Goncalves hasn’t had as many eye-popping wins as Bortolini, however he does not have many eye-popping losses, and that is what you need from a first-year starter. When Goncalves will get the leap on opposing defensive tackles, he ends reps early.
Let’s increase the scope. Left guard Quenton Nelson is taking part in the most effective ball of his profession, which is saying one thing. Proper sort out Braden Smith, whose play fell off after a fraught yr final season, has bounced again to kind. Left sort out Bernhard Raimann, who signed a large extension this summer time, seems to be each half the franchise cornerstone on the blind facet.
Bear in mind, all 5 gamers have been drafted by the Colts, and solely Nelson was a first-rounder. Hats off to basic supervisor Chris Ballard, however drafting high quality third- and fourth-rounders solely will get you up to now. There is a motive these gamers can be found within the center rounds. They want improvement. They discovered it in Indianapolis underneath Sparano. The Colts are a historic offense — 3.46 factors per drive could be the most effective quantity this century — and historic offenses are solely ever authored communally. It takes a village. The credit score by no means belongs to at least one man.
However for all the deserved appreciation for Steichen and Jones, and for Warren and Taylor, I have never heard a lot for Sparano and the offensive line that would have ruined this entire operation. However Steichen was by no means anxious. They’ve Tony, so …
4 trades that have to occur
As an alternative of my common “Second Take” part, I’ve proposed 4 trades that must be made between now and the NFL commerce deadline on Nov. 4. These make an excessive amount of sense!
Buccaneers deal with a defensive weak spot
Buccaneers get: Dolphins LB Jordyn Brooks
Dolphins get: 2026 fifth-round decide, S Christian Izien
Brooks was not a member of ESPN’s 25 most certainly gamers to be moved, so maybe I am wishcasting. However his abilities are wasted on the Dolphins protection. The present NFL chief in tackles, Brooks catches loads of runs that slip by means of Miami’s poor defensive entrance — however he is not at his greatest defending the run. A clean protection linebacker with nice instincts and area sense, Brooks is among the few linebackers within the league who can really be trusted to hold a decent finish down the sector, or drop into the intermediate center and never get bamboozled by route combos or quarterbacks’ eye fakes.
Protection linebackers of their athletic prime are uncommon and impactful gamers, and such a participant is sorely wanted in Tampa Bay. Third-year professional SirVocea Dennis has been the closest defender in protection on 35 targets this season, tied for third amongst all linebackers. He has surrendered 11.7 yards per goal, proper beside Elandon Roberts, Bobby Wagner and Terrel Bernard for the worst amongst all linebackers this season. Brooks is at 7.5.
Dennis is extra impactful as a downhill blitzer and in run protection than Brooks, however the Buccaneers can afford to provide just a little from their elite run protection to help their go protection. By success charge, the Buccaneers are the second-best protection within the league towards designed runs and twenty first towards dropbacks.
Brooks signed a stable three-year, $26.26 million cope with the Dolphins within the 2024 offseason, however the signing bonus was comparatively small. They restructured his deal final week, changing $4.06 million of wage right into a signing bonus and avoiding a void yr to prorate it as aggressively as potential. That is a transfer that would point out an incoming commerce (changing wage into signing bonus makes Brooks’ 2025 cap hit smaller for the buying staff), but it surely may additionally point out the Dolphins are preserving him (as they only assured him more money and would nonetheless have to pay that ought to Brooks get traded). Who is aware of? It is noteworthy both approach.
Tampa Bay basic supervisor Jason Licht tends to remain quiet on the deadline, however the want at LB — each short- and long-term — could be too massive to disregard.
I threw Izien into the deal — he has performed solely six defensive snaps this season however held up nicely when thrust into the beginning lineup final season. The Dolphins want security assist reverse Minkah Fitzpatrick and would doubtless begin Izien immediately.
Eagles get artistic within the secondary
Eagles get: CB Ja’Quan McMillian, 2026 seventh-round decide
Broncos get: 2026 sixth-round decide, 2027 sixth-round decide (can turn into a fifth on taking part in time situations)
With second-year stars in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, the Eagles are two-thirds of the way in which to an elite cornerback room. Mitchell, who performs on the surface, has the third-most targets of any nook this season, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats — however he’s surrendering solely a 47.9% completion share, which is healthier than all however two corners. His 6.0 yards per goal is nicely above common as nicely.
However reverse Mitchell, the opposite outdoors spot has been hammered. Out of 76 qualifying corners, veteran Adoree’ Jackson leads the league with a 25.7% goal charge per protection snap. His protection success charge is 66th; his yards per protection snap allowed is seventy fifth. Teammate Kelee Ringo is barely just a little higher, rating 53rd in protection success charge and forty eighth in yards per protection snap.
Offseason commerce acquisition Jakorian Bennett has been on injured reserve with a pectoral harm and simply had his follow window open up. He could be the answer to their outdoors cornerback woes — or, maybe, DeJean is the reply.
DeJean has arguably been the NFL’s greatest slot defender since he was inserted into the lineup in Week 6 final season. An prompt sensation for his dependable tackling, ball-hawking and veteran-like instincts, there is no doubt DeJean belongs within the slot long-term. However due to the Eagles’ CB2 points, he has spent extra time outdoors this season (25% of his snaps, up from 1.5% final season).
0:34
Why Schefter doesn’t assume the Eagles will commerce A.J. Brown
Adam Schefter says he would not be stunned if the Eagles make a transfer earlier than the deadline, however he does not anticipate A.J. Brown to be traded.
Ideally, the Eagles may discover an outdoor nook in the marketplace and maintain DeJean inside. However the present candidates — Deonte Banks, Marshon Lattimore, Cam Taylor-Britt — aren’t that engaging. One of the best title is Riq Woolen (Seahawks), and I am unsure he is a tradition or scheme match.
The slot nook market, then again, seems to be sturdy. The Titans already moved Roger McCreary for a Day 3 decide swap — a loopy worth for the Rams — and each Michael Carter II (Jets) and McMillian (Broncos) may very well be in the marketplace.
I like McMillian greatest for the Eagles. His substitute is ready within the wings in Denver, because the Broncos drafted Jahdae Barron within the first spherical of the 2025 draft. The harm to Pat Surtain II mustn’t have an effect on the Broncos’ plans within the slot a lot, as they’ve Kris Abrams-Draine ready within the wings on the outdoors nook spot. Signed as an unique rights free agent final yr, McMillian is on an especially low cost one-year contract, and the Eagles would retain his restricted free agent rights for subsequent season. If he finally ends up solely backing up DeJean within the slot at his present price ticket, that is completely wonderful.
Richardson will get a second shot
Vikings get: QB Anthony Richardson Sr., 2026 fifth-round decide
Colts get: 2026 third-round decide, 2027 sixth-round decide (can turn into a conditional fifth)
I consider two issues to be concurrently true. The primary is that McCarthy just isn’t being shadow-benched with a phantom ankle sprain. It does not go the sniff check to me. He began two video games and obtained the hook? He was actually unhealthy, however no two-game pattern is large enough to warrant a benching. I actually consider the Vikings needed McCarthy to develop this season, and the ankle harm has hindered that plan.
I additionally consider that the Vikings have been critical this previous offseason about discovering a authentic QB2 possibility behind McCarthy. I believe they needed to maintain Daniel Jones and kicked the tires on buying Aaron Rodgers. And if that was true then, it stays true now. McCarthy has performed two terrible video games and missed extra time with harm.
With Carson Wentz now on season-ending injured reserve, the QB2 job is as soon as once more open for grabs in Minnesota — and with it comes a critical alternative to begin.
Who will they aim? Kirk Cousins is smart just for a 2025 playoff push — there is no actual future past this season. Russell Wilson has the identical timeline however could be miscast within the system.
What about Richardson, the fourth total decide from 2023 who by no means panned out for the Colts? Richardson is at present on IR with a fractured orbital bone courtesy of a fluke pregame warmup harm that includes a wayward resistance band, and he has missed loads of time in his profession with accidents. He brings the same availability concern to that of McCarthy, and the O’Connell offense — which has virtually solely featured pocket passers — would have to be catered to his talent set.
However O’Connell is, presumably, a Richardson believer. Bear in mind his phrases to Richardson following a Week 9 sport in Minnesota:
Kevin O’Connell’s phrases of encouragement for Anthony Richardson:
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 7, 2024
The value (a third-round decide) would possibly look massive. However Trey Lance was moved for a fourth-round decide two years into his profession, and Richardson has been higher and performed extra at the same profession stage. Plus, there is a fifth-rounder going again.
I do not assume Richardson would stroll in and instantly begin (the Flacco, as we name it). But when McCarthy continues to wrestle getting his ankle again to well being, then Richardson would get a crack on the beginning gig after per week or two of studying the offense. If McCarthy will get again in time, Richardson provides Minnesota one other younger dart throw at a place the place it should hit on a cost-controlled participant to maintain the remainder of the roster paid.
I do not understand how vivid of a future Richardson has within the league. If he’s to seek out one, it is exhausting to think about a greater place to rebound than in Minnesota underneath O’Connell. As evidenced by quarterbacks throughout the league, virtually something is feasible in the proper new dwelling.
Patriots recoup worth on the outdated regime’s draft decide
49ers get: Edge rusher Keion White
Patriots get: 2026 sixth-round decide
White has utterly fallen out of favor in New England. He began final season actual sizzling. Within the first half of the yr, he was eleventh amongst all defensive linemen in strain charge and sixteenth in go rush win charge. He was particularly nasty on the inside, rating eleventh in go rush win charge when lined up as a defensive sort out. He cooled because the season went on, although — thirty fourth in strain charge and twenty fifth in go rush win charge within the again half of the season.
White was removed from an ideal participant. He freelanced rather a lot, which made him a legal responsibility in run protection. And for all of his pressures, he struggled to return to stability on the quarterback. His sack charge of 1.3% was bang on league common for defensive linemen in 2024. There was a motive for his incomplete play, although. White began his faculty profession at Outdated Dominion as a decent finish and performed solely two full seasons alongside the line of defense. Even together with his warts, the 2023 second-round decide regarded like an ascending participant.
Then a brand new teaching employees got here to city, and White obtained buried on the depth chart behind Ok’Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry III at edge, and beneath Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga at defensive sort out. Out of 176 qualifying defensive linemen this season, White is 169th in strain charge. He’s lifeless final in go rush win charge, as nicely: 0 wins on 69 rushes.
The expertise did not evaporate in a single day. White is clearly at odds with the brand new regime and desires a brand new dwelling. What touchdown spot would work greatest for a 285-pound tweener who wreaks havoc, often at the price of soundness?
The 49ers really feel like an apparent selection. They ask their defensive linemen to play easy, quick soccer in a single hole — coordinator Robert Saleh and line of defense coach Kris Kocurek have made a lot hay of their respective careers resurrecting off-cast defensive linemen of their system. White would get a while at edge however may additionally spend loads of rush downs at defensive sort out, the place the 49ers are extraordinarily skinny.
White has two years left on his deal and would have the snap counts mandatory in San Francisco to get well his misplaced kind and earn a large second contract. I’ve the Patriots receiving draft capital again, however I’d not be stunned in the event that they as a substitute pursue Jason Pinnock, a depth security who would possibly discover extra beginning reps in New England.
From y’all
One of the best a part of penning this column is listening to from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by e-mail (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime — however particularly on Monday every week — to ask a query and doubtlessly get it answered right here.
From Chinstrap: “Rank the Caleb Williams QB draft class because it stands immediately.”
Drake Maye
Jayden Daniels
Caleb Williams
Tier break.
Tier break.
From Anthony: “What was your hottest take whilst you have been out on go away {that a}) nonetheless has legs, and/or b) has been eviscerated since you’ll have made it?”
I firmly believed in late August that beginning Jones over Richardson was a mistake. The second I used to be proved extraordinarily unsuitable, I went on a six-week lengthy stroller stroll. Chess, not checkers.
From John: “Any sleep ideas for a 26-year-old who’s tossing and turning each evening as a result of the Payments haven’t got competent safeties and seemingly have little interest in using huge receivers who can persistently get open downfield?”
I actually consider the Payments are the NFL’s greatest working staff this season, and solely after they select to not decide to that id does their offense endure. The “Monday Evening Soccer” loss to the Falcons was probably the most complicated sport plans I’ve ever seen. James Prepare dinner may have a Saquon Barkley or Jonathan Taylor-like season if the Payments let him.
0:43
Takeaways from James Prepare dinner’s good fantasy sport
Liz Loza breaks reacts to James Prepare dinner’s massive fantasy sport vs. the Panthers.
Buffalo doesn’t want a go catcher acquisition on the deadline. If it will get one, wonderful — but it surely must be like final yr’s Packers and have one of many highest run charges over expectation within the league. The Payments’ actual want is run protection, the place their present personnel is untenable within the again seven — particularly at security and linebacker. The harm to defensive sort out Ed Oliver, who will probably be out indefinitely with a torn bicep, makes the difficulty much more obvious. I’d be calling Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort each single day asking for the worth tag on security Budda Baker.
From Dylan: “After Week 8, do you assume the Broncos must be taken as critical contenders within the AFC?”
No.
Subsequent Ben Stats
NFL Subsequent Gen Stats are distinctive and insightful nuggets of knowledge which are gleaned from monitoring chips and big databases. Subsequent Ben Stats are often numbers I made up. Each are beneath.
1,091: That is what number of receiving yards Chargers tight finish Oronde Gadsden II is on tempo for in a 17-game season.
In fact, Gadsden will not get a full 17-game season at this tempo, since he was inactive for the primary two video games and has performed solely six contests. But when he maintains this tempo for the Chargers’ 9 remaining video games, he’ll finish the season with 67 catches for 962 yards — behind solely Brock Bowers, Mike Ditka and Kyle Pitts Sr. on the all-time rookie tight ends checklist.
Put one other approach, Gadsden is averaging 4.5 catches for 64 yards by means of the primary six video games of his profession. Bowers, who set all types of rookie data final season, was at 6.2 catches for 64 yards by means of his first six video games.
5.5%: That is the speed of performs this week by which the offense was in jumbo personnel. It is the fifth-highest charge of any week within the NFL Subsequent Gen Stats database and the very best for the reason that 2021 season.
Jumbo personnel, in case you missed one of many many broadcasts that was extolling its virtues on Sunday, is personnel with at the very least six offensive linemen on the sector. It was all over in Week 8. The Texans ran 25 performs with jumbo personnel — 33% of their snaps! — and averaged a cool 6.3 yards per play in such units. The Eagles averaged 7.5 yards per play on their 10 snaps of jumbo, largely as a result of 65-yard Barkley landing run it sprang. The Dolphins had 13 jumbo performs towards the Falcons, essentially the most in a single sport within the Mike McDaniel period. The earlier excessive? Zero.
It is an oversimplification, however we will typically say that the elevated reliance on jumbo personnel is a mirrored image on the state of the tight finish place. Take the Dolphins, who have been lacking tight ends Darren Waller and Julian Hill for this sport. Miami by no means used jumbo earlier than as a result of it needed to threaten 5 within the route idea. When that fifth participant is TE4, the juice is not definitely worth the squeeze.
Equally in Philadelphia, the TE room has been constructed for go catching, with undersized gamers equivalent to Kylen Granson and Grant Calcaterra proving liabilities within the working sport in multi-TE units. Getting offensive sort out Fred Johnson on the sector provides worth within the run sport with out actually affecting the passing sport, as Granson and Calcaterra weren’t accumulating targets, anyway.
As all the time, innovation will swing again round. The Payments have been the league chief in jumbo units final season, then they drafted an incredible blocking tight finish in Jackson Hawes and have now largely scrapped the jumbo bundle. However nonetheless, cool to see!
1%: That is how a lot win likelihood was added by Aaron Glenn when he determined to go for a 2-point conversion down eight factors, from a 6% probability to a 7% probability.
We dedicate a lot column house to interrogating analytics-based selections after they go awry. Time to provide them some flowers after they achieve spectacular vogue.
After scoring a landing to chop the Bengals’ result in 38-30 with 7:52 left in regulation, Glenn left his offense on the sector to go for 2. The reasoning is way more intuitive than you would possibly assume. With lower than eight minutes left, Glenn can fairly anticipate to have yet another possession. Perhaps there’s room for a second, however that is a stretch. So he is left with a selection. Kick the additional level, and he’ll have just one probability to win this sport. That’d come both in time beyond regulation (by scoring the following landing and kicking the additional level to pressure the tie) or in regulation (by scoring the following landing, then electing to go for 2 with minimal time left on the clock).
But when he goes for 2, he’ll have two alternatives to win the sport. He can win it in regulation (by changing on the 2-point attempt, then scoring the go-ahead landing as time expires). And he can win it in time beyond regulation (by scoring the following landing, changing on that 2-point attempt to taking the sport to OT).
It looks like a small distinction, however for an 0-7 staff, taking the danger is particularly gutsy and equally admirable. Glenn, who has come underneath a lot duress by means of seven winless weeks, created this win for his staff. Kudos to him and quarterback Justin Fields for an emphatic efficiency.
1:21
Alex Smith blasts Woody Johnson over Jets’ dysfunction
Alex Smith calls Woody Johnson “cowardly” for his feedback focusing on Justin Fields.
1990. That is the final time a participant had 5 sacks in a sport his staff misplaced, which Myles Garrett did Sunday.
It was Derrick Thomas’ seven-sack sport towards the Seahawks, which nonetheless stands as the very best sack sport in NFL historical past (for the reason that stat was formally began in 1982). That sport ended 17-16, with Seattle scoring a landing within the fourth quarter to take the lead over the Chiefs.
The one different cases of a five-plus sack sport in a shedding effort are a 1986 sport from Leslie O’Neal by which his Chargers misplaced 24-21, and a 1983 Howie Lengthy efficiency by which the Raiders fell 37-35.
The 4 completely different level margins for shedding five-sack video games in NFL historical past are minus-1, minus-2, minus-3 and minus-19.