Oregon walks into November seeking to duck the noise and show it belongs within the playoff tier. The No. 6 Geese are 7-1 general and 4-1 within the Massive Ten, however now comes a visit to Iowa. The Hawkeyes sit at 6-2 and 4-1 in convention play, simply outdoors the Prime 25 at No. 26 within the AP ballot.
A group that is aware of who they’re and will get this at residence in opposition to a Prime 10 opponent. This sport is about proving you possibly can win when the combat strikes to the trenches. Massive-boy soccer.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 6 Oregon Geese at Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Oregon -6.5
Cash line: Oregon (-230), Iowa (+195)
Over/Underneath: 40.5 (O -115, U -105)
Oregon is sweet — however are they nice?
Oregon has expertise in every single place, however the resume tells a layered story. The Geese can overwhelm inferior opponents with velocity and depth, however when video games get bodily on the line of scrimmage, they’re good, not automated. Indiana uncovered that and the Penn State sport confirmed the potential ceiling. The reality is someplace between.
Offensively, that is nonetheless a field-stretching unit. QB Dante Moore has taken an actual leap in command and decision-making with solely 4 interceptions all season. That sort of ball safety issues in November.
The dashing offense has versatility with Noah Whittington’s burst and Dierre Hill Jr.’s bodily model, however Oregon managed solely 81 dashing yards and a pair of.7 per carry vs. Indiana. After they do not discover first-down success, Moore has to shoulder extra, and the script shifts.
Indiana was the wake-up name. Oregon bought out-muscled and misplaced time of possession by nearly seven minutes. Since then, they returned to steadiness and tightened defensively on early downs.
Heading into Iowa, trench consistency is the query. Oregon can win in area. Can they win in a fistfight? Kinnick Stadium asks that.
Iowa is … Iowa. Similar id, sharper execution
The Hawkeyes are nonetheless constructed on management, discipline leverage, the bottom sport and protection, forcing drive-by-drive stress.
The offense … nonetheless not high-octane vertically, averaging simply 5.6 yards per move, throwing it nearly 20 instances a sport however once they do throw, it tends to be as a result of they must and never as a result of they need to. The constructive for Iowa, is that they’ve stability at quarterback and rhythm within the run sport.
QB Mark Gronowski strikes chains, performs inside construction and offers this offense toughness. Kamari Moulton and Xavier Williams convey burst. It isn’t three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust. As a substitute, it is deliberate, bodily, then minimize and go.
The issue comes when runs get stuffed early. In losses to Iowa State and Indiana, they averaged 3.5 and a pair of.7 yards per carry. When Iowa can not run, their margin shrinks.
The protection is as legit as ever, permitting simply 4.4 yards per play with 9 pressured interceptions and solely 20 whole landing scores allowed in eight video games. Phil Parker has one other unit that squeezes area and eliminates breakaway potential. Holding Penn State to 93 passing yards and forcing two turnovers stays a blueprint sport.
Betting Consideration: UNDER 40.5
The road opened 43 and dropped however at 40.5 it is nonetheless playable.
Oregon can win in any model, however Kinnick in November shouldn’t be the place you come to run tempo and hold 40. Iowa can drag the Geese into trench soccer, nearer to the Indiana sport, making it about field-position, forcing drive-by-drive endurance the place factors are available inches, not chunks.
In the meantime, despite the fact that Iowa’s offensive id has improved, they nonetheless lack explosives. Iowa’s greatest path is working the ball, and which means fewer possessions, red-zone pressure and pressure-filled third downs.
Add in elite defensive effectivity on either side, top-tier tackling and two models that maintain agency contained in the 20, and this turns into a sport of methodical execution. Yardage will come however that does not all the time translate to factors.
Because the whole already dropped, there’s an opportunity it dips additional earlier than kickoff. The decrease you go, the window tightens. I might play it to 41. Beneath that, you’re betting perfection with no flukes. If the pre-game whole dips into the 30s, search for a reside underneath after an early rating.
Bonus tip: Think about the second-half underneath as properly. Oregon ranks seventeenth in second-half factors allowed at 8.4 per sport, and Iowa is third permitting simply 4.7 on common. Each defenses tighten late, and tempo slows much more as soon as discipline place and fatigue set in.
Betting traits
Courtesy of ESPN Analysis
Iowa is 0-5 ATS vs Prime-10 groups since 2022, worst in FBS.
Oregon is 10-3 ATS on the highway since 2023, greatest amongst Energy 4 groups.
Iowa is 19-13-2 ATS as a house underdog since 1999 (when Kirk Ferentz grew to become HC).
Oregon is 9-4 ATS underneath Dan Lanning when a 7-point favourite or much less (incl. being an underdog); fifth greatest in FBS.