A brand new report from the Council on Geostrategy has warned that crucial gaps throughout European NATO militaries danger undermining deterrence towards Russia, as many years of underinvestment collide with shifting international priorities and a extra aggressive Moscow.
The examine, titled Collective Defence, the SDR, and Functionality Gaps, highlights shortfalls throughout air, sea, and land energy, and argues that with out pressing reform and integration, European allies may battle to reply successfully to future crises on the continent.
The report features a foreword by Gen. (rtd.) Sir Richard Barrons, co-author of the 2025 Strategic Defence Evaluation, who warned that “hope and denial” had too typically changed coherent technique in European defence planning.
The evaluation identifies weaknesses starting from restricted missile defence capability and sluggish manufacturing charges to insufficient counter-drone methods and shortfalls in anti-submarine warfare.
It additionally notes rising vulnerabilities in logistics and industrial resilience, with many NATO members depending on industrial delivery and provide chains ill-suited for wartime calls for. Barrons wrote that “we all know what must be completed. What’s left is to determine to do it on the velocity decided by the dangers.”
Report writer William Freer, a Analysis Fellow in Nationwide Safety on the Council, stated the examine sought to offer “a transparent image of European NATO and its present capabilities stacked towards a Russian navy able to posing downside units that might problem the foundations of the alliance.” He added that Russia’s navy, as soon as the conflict in Ukraine ends, will doubtless emerge with “a big infantry-based military, supported by a deep and replaceable long-range fires journal, shielded by A2/AD methods and backed by a strong nuclear arsenal.”
Amongst its suggestions, the report requires a extra centered UK power construction with larger emphasis on air and naval energy, the growth of missile manufacturing capability, and consideration of a UK-built sub-strategic nuclear missile to bolster deterrence. It additionally urges nearer integration amongst European allies to keep away from duplication and deal with gaps extra effectively.
Freer famous that European navies are notably susceptible, with fewer than half of NATO’s floor warships commissioned prior to now 15 years and none outfitted for ballistic missile defence. Regardless of latest will increase in defence spending, he warned that “gaps stay. It’s critical that deterrence within the Euro-Atlantic continues to carry.”
The complete report, Collective Defence, the SDR, and Functionality Gaps, is obtainable on the Council on Geostrategy’s web site.