Can Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen break the career rushing TD record?

The Philadelphia Eagles’ skill players have a running joke when it comes to scoring touchdowns deep in the red zone.

“If you’re going to get down to the 1, you might as well get in,” said tight end Dallas Goedert, his smile widening. “Because otherwise, you know how we’re going to get in.”

That would be by way of Jalen Hurts, churning in on a wave of momentum generated by his road-grading offensive line, a healthy dose of lower-body strength and, of course, a push of the tush.

Sunday’s marquee matchup between the Eagles and Buffalo Bills (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox) features two of the most prolific rushing quarterbacks of all time in Hurts and Josh Allen.

Allen already has the most rushing touchdowns by a QB in NFL history (77). Hurts, who was drafted two years after Allen in 2020, ranks third (63).

What they’re doing at their position is already historic. But what they’re capable of achieving — should their bodies cooperate and if the stars align — would be truly epic.

Based on their respective paces right now, Allen and Hurts have a chance to break Emmitt Smith’s career rushing touchdown record of 164. Interestingly, both are on track to surpass Smith’s mark early in the 2034 season.

To put that kind of potential achievement in perspective, the top 20 currently in career rushing TDs are all running backs — a list that includes LaDainian Tomlinson, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders and Jim Brown. Derrick Henry (5th, 116 TDs) is the lone active player on the list.

One thing in Hurts’ and Allen’s favor is time: It’s not uncommon these days for top-level quarterbacks to stretch their NFL careers well into double-digits years. But there are plenty of factors working against them, including the now annual attempts to ban the tush push.

Regardless, two of the best dual-threat quarterbacks of all-time will be sharing a field this weekend, and everyone — tight ends, backs and receivers included — know what to expect.

What makes them so good at finding the end zone?

Allen: There are a number of factors that have made Allen a dynamic runner. His size (6-foot-5, 237 pounds) is certainly a major factor, but his overall athleticism and knowledge of the game have elevated his ability and made him invaluable with both his legs and his arm. He is in a tight race with Bills’ running back James Cook III (each with 12 rushing touchdowns apiece) to finish a sixth season (out of his eight played) leading the Bills in rushing and passing touchdowns, tied for the second-most such seasons in NFL history with Otto Graham (behind Cam Newton, seven). What he is able to accomplish at his size is difficult to replicate.

Allen also has special abilities to keep plays alive and evade defenders, both by leaping and breaking tackles.

“There’s so many variables [of what Allen can do], and by the time you’re thinking that through your head, he’s already passed you because all of a sudden he’s fast, too,” center Connor McGovern said. “There’s so many, he’s so unique and all the stuff he can do, it’s hard to plan against that.”

Hurts: Some of it is by sheer force. Hurts, a powerlifter in his high school days, can squat over 600 pounds. That comes in handy when you’re fighting for inches near the goal line.

“He’s a strong guy, he’s powerful, and he wants to get in,” Goedert said.

But he’s also effective in space. Hurts excels in the zone-read and run-pass option game, adept at pulling the ball when defenders overcommit to stopping the running back and taking off for the edge. The quarterback draw has also been a weapon for the Eagles under Hurts, who has a feel for the exact right moment to tuck the ball and head for the crease.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Allen and Newton are the only QBs to hold at least a share of the all-time rushing touchdowns record for a current NFL franchise. Hurts is well on his way to becoming the third QB in that circle — he’s six rushing touchdowns shy of tying Hall of Famer Steve Van Buren (69) for the most rushing touchdowns in Eagles franchise history.

Impact of the tush push

Allen: Allen’s size makes his usage at the goal line a no-brainer. But unlike Hurts in Philadelphia, the tush push is a smaller element of Allen’s rushing attack.

Since 2022, including playoffs, Allen has 18 tush push touchdowns, about a fifth of his 84 total. He has 29 total touchdowns from the 1-yard line, showing that once the Bills get close to the end zone, using the quarterback’s legs is a strong option — but it’s not a top reason Allen has had sustained success.

Hurts: It’s a major factor in his touchdown production. He has 36 tush push touchdowns since ’22, double the amount of Allen, who ranks second.

The Eagles have been by far the heaviest users of the push sneak, running it 148 times since ’22. The Bills are next with 79. No other team has used it even 20 times in that span.

“I love everything that goes into making it successful and making it work, just like any play that you go through,” coach Nick Sirianni said last month. “There’s so much that goes into each and every play that I think not a lot of people would understand of how much goes into [it], figuring out why to run it, when to run it, the detail, the coaching points, and the fundamentals that are needed to execute each play.”

Hurts has 43 1-yard rushing scores, by far the most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era.

Can Allen or Hurts break the all-time rushing TD record?

Allen: It’s possible, but unlikely. The case for it is that in this period of Allen’s career, his rushing touchdowns have only increased despite Allen and the Bills prioritizing him taking fewer hits. Allen has also not missed any game time due to injury since his rookie year.

In the past three seasons, Allen has averaged 13 rushing touchdowns per year (39 total). Compare that to his average of 7.6 per season during the first five seasons of his career (2018-22).

But as he gets older, limiting the hits will be ever more important. When asked about Allen’s abilities as a rusher, coach Sean McDermott noted how he just wants Allen to stay healthy, but that the quarterback still enjoys it. “He likes running. He does, which you would think by now he would be like, ‘Hey, no, I’m good.’ But he’s just so competitive, so tough.”

While rushing will likely always be a part of Allen’s game, the level he can maintain as he continues to age will dictate how high up the record books he can go.

Hurts: Sustaining this level of production over the better part of the next decade seems like a stretch.

Hurts already appears to be dialing things down. He’s on pace for career lows in rushing attempts and rushing yards since taking over as the full-time starter in 2021.

He recently noted that “it’s becoming tougher and tougher” to execute the tush push play as defenses continue to come up with new ways to stop it.

Some in the league are trying to have the play banned altogether. The “push” part of the play may be a bit overrated — the sneak could still largely be successful without the shove for a team with a massive offensive line and a QB like Hurts — but the degree of difficulty would go up further still.