Lane Kiffin’s exit from Ole Miss on Sunday triggered a guessing sport at sportsbooks, with oddsmakers making an attempt to determine how a lot to downgrade the Rebels with out the mercurial coach heading into the School Soccer Playoff.
Opinions various, however the consensus vary amongst 4 oddsmakers was that Kiffin was value upwards of 4 factors.
“We’re guessing,” stated Chris Bennett, sportsbook director at Circa in Las Vegas, “however we positively suppose Lane Kiffin’s presence is critical for the Ole Miss staff score.”
The Rebels had been 25-1 to win the nationwide championship earlier than Kiffin introduced he could be taking a job at LSU and wouldn’t coach Ole Miss within the playoff. The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas dropped the Rebels’ title odds to 40-1 on Sunday after the information was made official.
“The problem now could be understanding the total extent of the influence his departure may have,” Joey Feazel, who oversees soccer odds for Caesars Sportsbook, advised ESPN. “It may very well be minimal or it may very well be important relying on which personnel and employees comply with him out the door. The purpose unfold will definitely be affected, however the larger shift could are available in offensive effectivity. With a defensive-minded coach probably taking the reins, anticipate the full to pattern decrease.”
Veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker Chris Andrews was on the low finish and wasn’t planning to regulate his energy rankings on Ole Miss a lot with Kiffin departing, “assuming somebody on the employees takes the reins … 1-1.5 factors at most.”
“Nearer to at least one until the market dictates in any other case,” Andrews, the sportsbook director on the South Level, advised ESPN.
Ed Salmons, a Las Vegas oddsmaker for 40-plus years, had seven groups above Ole Miss in his energy rankings forward of Kiffin’s departure. He was planning to drop the Rebels to twelfth with out Kiffin.
“For instance Alabama loses [in the SEC championship game] they usually get matched up towards Ole Miss [in the CFP first round], Bama would go in there favored,” Salmons of the SuperBook stated, including that the Rebels would have been favored over the Crimson Tide if Kiffin had been nonetheless the coach.
“Initially, you are simply guessing,” Salmons stated, “however when these coaches simply outright depart, nothing good often occurs.”
Thanksgiving underdogs ravage bettors
All 4 NFL underdogs — the Inexperienced Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears — gained outright Thursday and Friday, leading to a Thanksgiving thrashing for bettors and chaos in a high-stakes survivor contest in Las Vegas.
It is the primary time for the reason that NFL expanded to a few Thanksgiving video games in 2006 that every one three underdogs gained straight up on the vacation, and it is the primary time an underdog gained outright on Black Friday for the reason that league added that sport in 2023.
Circa Survivor, an NFL survivor contest with a $1,000 buy-in and an $18.6 million prize pool, requires contestants to choose two outright winners throughout Thanksgiving week, one from the Thursday-Friday video games and the second from the Sunday-Monday slate. Coming into Thanksgiving, 898 entries had been nonetheless alive; after the Bears completed off the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday, solely 49 entries had been left. Philadelphia was essentially the most chosen staff within the contest for the Thursday-Friday slate.
Two contestants did not submit their decide by the deadline for the week and had been eradicated.
Circa’s higher-stakes survivor contest — the $100,000 per entry Grandissimo — ended on account of the Thanksgiving/Black Friday upsets. The remaining six gamers break up the $6.9 million prize pool evenly, every taking house $1.15 million.
NFL Odds & Ends
The Carolina Panthers’ outright win as 9.5-point underdogs towards the Los Angeles Rams was tied for the second-largest upset of the season, trailing solely the Panthers’ (13.5) victory over the Inexperienced Bay Packers in Week 9. Carolina has gained seven video games straight up as an underdog, essentially the most by any staff by way of November of any season within the Tremendous Bowl period, per ESPN Analysis.
Excluding Week 10 when the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs had been on bye, the reigning Tremendous Bowl favourite has misplaced 4 weeks in a row: Chiefs (Week 9), Chiefs (Week 11), Eagles (Week 12) and Rams (Week 13).
The preferred participant prop Sunday morning at DraftKings was Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders to throw two-plus touchdowns towards the San Francisco 49ers.
Going into the season, the Chiefs had been -450 to make the playoffs, in keeping with ESPN BET odds. Earlier than their Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys, the Chiefs had been -220 for the postseason, and going into Sunday of Week 13, they had been -115 to make the playoffs, their longest odds of the season.
Underdogs went 9-5 towards the unfold and 7-7 straight up by way of Sunday afternoon, together with the Thanksgiving and Black Friday video games. Underdogs had been 9-2 ATS and 7-4 SU by way of the early Sunday slate earlier than all three favorites lined within the late slate.
School soccer odds & ends
Convention championship video games
(Consensus opening strains)
CUSA: Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State -1.5, 57.5
Solar Belt: Troy at James Madison -21, 47.5
American: North Texas -3, 66.5 vs. Tulane
Mountain West: UNLV vs. Boise State -1.5, 56.5
Huge 12: BYU vs. Texas Tech -12.5, 50.5
MAC: Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan -2.5, 43
SEC: Georgia -1.5, 47.5 vs. Alabama
ACC: Duke vs. Virginia -2.5, 57.5
Huge Ten: Indiana vs. Ohio State -5.5, 48.5
Salmons of the SuperBook stated Notre Dame could be “greater than a subject objective however lower than a landing favourite” over Miami if the 2 playoff contenders performed on a impartial website this week.
Texas Tech lined the unfold in 11 of 12 regular-season video games, turning into the primary power-conference staff to complete the common season at 11-1 or higher towards the unfold since 2012 Northwestern.
Virginia will play Duke within the ACC championship sport. At 100-1, the Cavaliers could be the most important preseason lengthy shot to win the ACC in over 15 years.