Early Week 18 bets: Ravens-Steelers to be a slugfest, Drake Maye for MVP

The NFL playoff picture is coming into focus, with 12 teams having locked up spots and the remaining two spot to be determined in winner-take-all matchups in Week 18.

The Carolina Panthers hit the road to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the NFC South title at stake, and the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night with the AFC North up for grabs. The winners of those games will be in the playoffs and have a home game, the loser will be out.

Other key matchups will determine playoff seeding, including the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers meeting with the top seed in the NFC on the line. The loser will have to play a road playoff game.

Matt Bowen, Joe Fortenbaugh, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder looked at the early Week 18 odds and identified which ones are worth jumping on now before potential shifts later in the week.

Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

Bowen: Assuming Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ top offensive skills players are up for this one, I’ll take Dallas to cover the spread. Prescott has thrown for multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games, and he’ll have matchups to target at the second and third level of the field. Big plays here.
Last week: Steelers -4.5 at Browns (Browns won, 13-6)

Ravens at Steelers UNDER 41.5 (-110)

Fortenbaugh: This opened at 43 and was immediately steamed south for several reasons. For starters, did you see how Pittsburgh looked Sunday without DK Metcalf? Six total points on 4.5 yards per play against a Cleveland Browns defense that surrendered 31 points at home to the Tennessee Titans back on December 7. To make matters worse, Steelers tight end Darnell Washington sustained a broken arm in Sunday’s loss to the Browns. Worth noting is the fact that the last 11 meetings between the Steelers and Ravens have produced an average of just 34.5 total points per game. Rock fight incoming!

Titans at Jaguars OVER 46.5 (-115)

Maldonado: The Jags can carry the total on its own, averaging 27 points per game, 35 in their last three, converting in the red zone, and not going conservative when ahead. The Titans have been on an offensive surge in the last few games, more than functional. Cam Ward is showing as of late that he’s capable of pushing the Titans into scoring range when game script forces volume, which is all the over needs.
Last week: Cowboys-Commanders over 50.5 (Cowboys won, 30-23)

Browns at Bengals OVER 44.5 (-110)

Moody: The Bengals are expected to play their starters in Week 18, including Joe Burrow. Cincinnati has scored 82 points in its last two games, and the Browns should put up points against a Bengals defense that has allowed the second-most points per game this season.
Last week: Lions -6 at Vikings (Vikings won, 23-10)

Walder: He just recorded the highest QBR game in the metric’s history (since 2006) with a 99.8 against the New York Jets on Sunday. That moves him up to being the clear leader in QBR on the season, three points clear of the next-highest player (Jordan Love). And with the San Francisco 49ers winning Sunday night, the Los Angeles Rams were knocked out of contention for the NFC West. While that shouldn’t really matter, the fact that Los Angeles will only be a wild card while the Patriots won their division and still have a chance at the No. 1 seed will likely hurt Matthew Stafford’s case in some voters’ minds.