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Sir Keir Starmer was last week pummelled by voters in local elections, leaving his Labour party in a state of high anxiety. But on Thursday the UK prime minister was able to hail an achievement on the international stage: a trade accord with Donald Trump.
The deal is expected to be narrow in scope and will largely be an exercise in damage limitation. Starmer can expect criticism from opponents when details emerge of what exactly he has given Trump to spare British car and steelmakers from the full brunt of 25 per cent US tariffs.
There will also be scrutiny of whether Britain, in its rush to get a trade deal with America, has secured good terms compared with the other countries with which the US president is negotiating.
But for now Starmer will win some plaudits for being the first world leader to do a deal with Trump since the US president announced sweeping tariffs last month.
“If we can get a deal with India, Trump and the EU in the next three weeks, that would be the dream scenario,” one UK minister told the Financial Times on Monday.
Starmer agreed a trade deal with India on Tuesday, and a new post-Brexit UK/EU “strategic partnership” is due to be agreed at a summit in London on May 19, committing both sides to deeper co-operation in defence and trade.
Thursday’s deal is expected to focus on cutting US tariffs on UK exports of cars and steel — both subject to 25 per cent levies — while British negotiators have also sought to persuade the Trump team not to impose big new tariffs in future.
“We’ve focused on the big items — autos and steel, and prospectively the other ones in the sights of the Americans,” said one UK official, citing pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and aerospace as potential future Trump targets. “Yes, it’s narrow but it covers the big items of trade.”
Britain sold £6.4bn of cars to the US in 2023 — 18 per cent of all UK car exports — while the UK’s steel industry sells about £400mn worth of its products into the American market.
Britain also sold £8.8bn of medical and pharmaceutical products to the US, which is Britain’s single biggest trade partner.
Starmer’s successes on the world stage are in contrast to his domestic travails. YouGov’s latest survey shows 61 per cent think he is doing a bad job, with just 27 per cent saying he is doing well.
According to disgruntled Labour MPs, voters are much more concerned about Starmer’s plan to remove winter fuel payments from 10mn pensioners than high-level negotiations about tariffs.
Starmer won a modest poll bounce after his visit to the White House in February and his efforts a few days later to put together a “coalition of the willing” to fill a western military vacuum in Ukraine left by the US.
The path to Thursday’s UK-US trade deal has been bumpy. “It has progressed in fits and starts,” said one British negotiator. Starmer has been effusive in his flattery of Trump to keep negotiations on track, leaving many Labour MPs gritting their teeth.
“An indispensable ally both in economic and national security” is how Starmer described Trump in a VE Day speech in London on Thursday. “A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY” is how Trump described Britain on Truth Social.
Lord Peter Mandelson, Britain’s ambassador to Washington, has developed networks in the Trump team to keep the UK at the forefront of the president’s mind. Scott Bessent, US Treasury secretary, is seen as particularly helpful to London.
Mandelson realised early on that it would be hard to persuade Trump to cut his 10 per cent baseline global tariff — although hopes remain of UK carve-outs further down the track — so the focus has been on the most exposed British industrial sectors.
British negotiators see Thursday’s deal on tariffs as a prelude to further talks, including developing a UK-US “tech partnership”, which Mandelson prioritised upon his arrival in Washington this year.
Starmer knows that whatever price he pays for Thursday’s agreement, it will be too high for some of his political opponents. UK tariff cuts — in areas such as cars and meat exports — are expected to be part of the deal. Downing Street has steadfastly refused to guarantee MPs a vote on the pact.
But Starmer has so far refused to budge on US demands that Britain should cut its food and animal welfare standards to allow more exports of American beef and chicken. Any such concession would have scuppered closer UK-EU trade in the area of foodstuffs.
However, a reduction in UK tariffs on agricultural products could open the door to more US beef and chicken, so long as it conformed to UK standards. Only about 5 per cent of US chicken is currently chlorine-washed, according to the US National Chicken Council, an industry group.
David Henig, a trade expert at the ECIPE think-tank, said: “A US deal looks like more evidence that this UK government is in a mood to just get on with completing trade deals rather than dragging them out in the hope this gives a better outcome.
“With Trump any deal has to be a risk as he may change his policy again tomorrow.”
For Starmer, under pressure to show voters that his government is delivering, it is a risk he is ready to take.
Additional reporting by David Sheppard and Peter Foster
