For many years Iran’s supreme chief has sought to steadiness his ideological hostility in direction of the US and Israel with a realistic want to keep away from all-out conflict.
However now that US President Donald Trump has joined Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in taking the battle to the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei faces probably the most consequential determination of his almost 40 years in energy. Does he search for a diplomatic compromise with Trump, search to escalate or attempt to maintain the battle contained to Israel?
After the US president ordered the bombing of Iran’s important nuclear websites — Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan — within the early hours of Sunday, the republic’s supreme chief will wish to present that the regime, battered and bloodied, continues to be capable of put up a battle and won’t be cowed into submission.
However regime insiders prompt that Khamenei wouldn’t escalate towards the US and danger a harsher response that wreaks extra destruction on the republic. As an alternative, they are saying, Iran’s prime response might be intensifying assaults on Israel.
“Let Trump be completely satisfied and really feel victorious, we aren’t going to enter into a giant conflict with the US,” one regime insider mentioned. “The US solely attacked three websites. In the event that they wished to go for a giant conflict, they might have destroyed extra locations, however they didn’t.”
US vice-president JD Vance on Sunday insisted that the US was “not at conflict with Iran”, however with its nuclear programme. “We have now little interest in a protracted battle. We have now little interest in boots on the bottom,” he instructed NBC, including that the Trump administration doesn’t search regime change.
The Iranian regime will, nonetheless, maintain firing at Israel — because it did hours after the US assaults and never undergo an unconditional ceasefire. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard mentioned it fired 40 “new generations” missiles at Israel hours after the US strikes. Israel mentioned greater than 20 missiles had been fired, however no deaths reported.
“When Iran accepted a ceasefire within the 1988 Iraq conflict, commanders mentioned they’d run out of ammunition. Now commanders say let’s firmly resist and hit again. Iran won’t ask for a ceasefire beneath any circumstances,” the regime insider mentioned.
A second regime insider mentioned Iran had no different selection however to ship “a crushing response to the US” — however would achieve this by assaults on Israel, which triggered the conflict with waves of strikes on the Islamic republic final week.
“It’s pure for Iran to accentuate its assaults on Israel as a result of it was Netanyahu who dragged the US into conflict with Iran,” the insider mentioned.
He added that closing the Strait of Hormuz — by which greater than 1 / 4 of the world’s seaborne crude passes — could possibly be thought of if the battle escalates.
Analysts have warned there was a danger that the regime might rush to develop a nuclear bomb in an try to revive its deterrent and that it had managed to divert a few of its stockpile of uranium enriched near weapons grade from Fordow and Natanz to secret places.
The primary regime insider mentioned this was not but an possibility being thought of by the management.
“We must always have been very naive to maintain our enriched uranium in these websites — the enriched uranium is untouched now,” the insider mentioned. “However this doesn’t change something as a result of we’ve got no plan to make use of it. Iran has not and won’t search nuclear weapons.”
On Sunday, Iranian overseas minister Abbas Araghchi mentioned Tehran had “a variety of choices obtainable” and was calculating its response, whereas warning that the US has “crossed a really large pink line”.
Iran’s Guards mentioned that the US had “positioned itself on the frontline of the army aggression” by attacking the nation’s peaceable nuclear services.
Iranian officers have warned in latest weeks that if the US attacked Iran, the Islamic republic might reply by focusing on American bases and belongings within the area, as properly power services within the Gulf.
Khamenei warned final week that Trump “ought to know that any US army engagement will undoubtedly lead to irreparable harm”.
Sanam Vakil, Center East director at Chatham Home, mentioned Khamenei might revert to his technique of searching for to “escalate to de-escalate” — strike out, however in a means that reduces the danger of a extra ferocious US response and leaves the door to diplomacy open.
“They’re extra boxed in than they’ve ever been and they should discover an off-ramp,” Vakil mentioned. “With the few choices earlier than them, that is the one situation that is sensible that gives the regime a lifeline.”
Iran might for instance strike a base utilized by a number of the 2,500 American troops in neighbouring Iraq, she mentioned. Such an assault, with advance warning, would trigger minimal harm.
It’s the tactic Tehran used after Trump ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s strongest army commander, whereas he was at Baghdad airport in 2020.
The regime responded by firing a big missile barrage at two bases in Iraq internet hosting American troops. It was the most important assault towards a US base in a long time, however Tehran used again channels to telegraph the assault was coming, and with no deaths reported, and either side searching for to keep away from a full-blown conflict, they pulled again from the brink.
The US’s strikes on Sunday had been on a much more extreme scale: the primary ever direct American assault on the republic coming at a time when it’s dealing with an existential risk and at its most weak level because the 1979 revolution introduced within the theocratic system.
Even earlier than the US assault, Israel’s strikes had already decimated the highest ranks of Iran’s army command and destroyed a lot of its missile launchers and vegetation.
It’s why Emile Hokayem, on the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research, mentioned “the entire argument about prioritising regime survival wants context and nuance”.
“Khamenei’s calculus has disastrously failed and his warning might be seen by many contained in the system as a part of Iran’s debacle,” Hokayem mentioned. “It’s nonetheless potential that this new political dynamic in Tehran could result in a readiness to go exhausting within the neighbourhood, with extra escalation — it might blow up.”
If Iran selected to launch assaults throughout the Gulf, it might use its arsenal of shorter vary missiles, that are extra correct and, given the distances, would go away defences within the Gulf with much less response time.
It might additionally search to attract within the regional militants it backs which might be a part of the so-called axis of resistance.
However its strongest and necessary proxy, Hizbollah, was severely depleted by Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon final 12 months.
Tehran might try to mobilise Iranian-backed Shia militants in Iraq, which have previously attacked US bases, services and troops in that nation.
Houthi rebels in Yemen might additionally reply and have already threatened to assault US naval vessels within the Gulf, as they’ve completed beforehand.
The militant motion has already severely disrupted visitors by the Crimson Sea since launching assaults on service provider vessels within the important commerce maritime commerce route within the wake of Hamas’s October 7 2023 assault on Israel. The Houthis withstood an intense month-long US bombing marketing campaign that resulted in Might when Trump abruptly known as a halt to the assaults, whereas praising the rebels’ “capability to resist punishment”.
However Vakil mentioned a essential issue can be what Netanyahu does. He upended Trump’s try at negotiations with Iran to safe an settlement to resolve the stand-off with Tehran over its expansive nuclear programme and has succeeded in his objective to attract the US into fight.
“It’s unclear if Trump has the affect over Netanyahu and that’s necessary in what occurs subsequent,” she mentioned.
And if Trump appears to return to diplomacy, the regime’s deep mistrust of the US, and European powers, has been exacerbated. For weeks, the primary hurdle to a deal was Tehran’s refusal to surrender its proper to counterpoint uranium as Trump demanded. The query is whether or not the US’s bombing of Iran’s important enrichment services modifications Khamenei’s calculus.
Trump, who final week known as for Iran’s “unconditional give up”, demanded on Saturday evening that Tehran “make peace” or face extra intense assaults. Iran has vowed to not capitulate to US stress.
“Final week, we had been in negotiations with the US when Israel determined to explode that diplomacy,” Araghchi mentioned in a publish on X. “This week, we held talks with the E3/EU [the UK, France and Germany] when the US determined to explode that diplomacy. What conclusion would you draw?”
