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Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, the contenders in Poland’s cliffhanger presidential run-off, held rival mass rallies in Warsaw on Sunday in a closing push forward of the June 1 vote.
The race has been upended by Trzaskowski’s unexpectedly slim victory within the first spherical. The Warsaw mayor, working for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU Civic Platform celebration, secured solely a two-point lead over Nawrocki, a historian nominated by the right-wing Regulation and Justice (PiS) opposition celebration.
Tusk has campaigned alongside Trzaskowski, whilst polling suggests his involvement is more and more hurting moderately than serving to his candidate. A ballot by SW Analysis for the pro-government outlet Onet confirmed practically 31 per cent of respondents mentioned the prime minister might harm Trzaskowski’s marketing campaign, whereas solely 21 per cent noticed his involvement as useful.
The election has change into an off-the-cuff referendum on Tusk, who returned to energy in 2023 after eight years of PiS rule. Tusk has warned {that a} Nawrocki presidency would weaken Poland’s standing within the EU and jeopardise his reform agenda.
Trzaskowski stays intently tied to Tusk and has shouldered a few of the blame for the federal government’s damaged pledges, notably its failure to revive abortion rights severely restricted below the PiS administration.
“Trzaskowski is clearly related to Tusk, and now a big a part of voters are merely indignant at Tusk’s authorities,” mentioned Dorota Piontek, a political scientist at Adam Mickiewicz College in Poznań.
Tusk has acknowledged disappointment along with his authorities, however argues that getting “a yellow card shouldn’t be a drama” and insists that voters should realise the hazard of sustaining the PiS-led blockade of his reform agenda below outgoing President Andrzej Duda, one other PiS nominee.
An Ipsos ballot launched on Friday by state broadcaster TVP confirmed each candidates tied at 47 per cent. The result now largely hinges on the virtually 40 per cent of voters who supported different candidates within the first spherical.
Trzaskowski faces a more durable balancing act. He must attraction to far proper Confederation supporters cautious of PiS’s statist insurance policies in addition to to progressive voters disillusioned by Tusk’s authorities.
Trzaskowski has additionally confronted criticism for abandoning progressive positions on LGBTQ rights that had made Warsaw a liberal stronghold below PiS rule.
Nawrocki, regardless of private scandals, has retained vital help amongst older PiS voters who’re notably loyal to the celebration’s 75-year-old founder Jarosław Kaczyński — Tusk’s long-standing rival. Kaczyński handpicked Nawrocki as PiS’s nominee for the presidency.
This month Nawrocki got here below fierce criticism for not disclosing his acquisition of an residence from a susceptible pensioner below allegedly doubtful circumstances, however he dismissed the assaults as politically motivated “lies”.
“He [Nawrocki] did higher than we thought, particularly with this housing scandal,” mentioned Wojciech Szacki, chief political analyst at think-tank Polityka Perception.
The run-off’s kingmaker has change into Sławomir Mentzen, the far-right Confederation candidate who completed third within the first spherical with 14.8 per cent of the votes.
On Thursday, Nawrocki signed an settlement with Mentzen promising that, as president, he wouldn’t ratify Ukraine becoming a member of Nato — a deal Tusk described as an act of treason.
Trzaskowski additionally met Mentzen on Saturday, agreeing to a few of his calls for on taxation however drawing a pink line at Ukraine’s Nato membership.
Turnout within the first spherical was a document 67.3 per cent, pushed by excessive participation from voters aged below 30. Nevertheless, Szacki of Polityka Perception cautioned that many of those youthful voters supported extremist candidates on the left and proper who’re not within the race.
“The candidates of the 2 essential events don’t have any engaging agenda for younger individuals, so I don’t know if these youthful voters shall be prepared to participate within the second spherical,” mentioned Szacki.
“I’m completely shocked by how shut this vote goes to be,” mentioned Malwina Nowosielska, a 30-year IT specialist who held Polish and EU flags at Trzaskowski’s march on Sunday.
“There are loads of younger people who find themselves fed up with the duopoly, however they are going to finally perceive that this election is vital, hopefully for a democratic Poland that’s robust within the EU and never a nationalist one.”
