One week into the season, VJ Edgecombe (+110
) has formally surpassed Cooper Flagg (+115) as the favourite to win the NBA’s Rookie of the Yr, in line with ESPN BET.
That’s a tremendous turnaround from the place the season started, with Flagg because the prohibitive favourite and a prop accessible on ESPN BET of Flagg vs. the sector, the place the sector was getting plus cash.
How did we get right here? And the way possible is that this state of occasions to persist over the season? Let’s take a more in-depth look.
Edgecombe’s scorching begin
Edgecombe is off to a tremendous begin, averaging 22.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.5 APG, 3.0 3PG and 1.5 SPG via his first 4 video games whereas serving to lead the Philadelphia 76ers to a stunning 4-0 begin. However greater than the numbers, his on-court demeanor and sense-of-the-moment have been wonderful for a rookie.
He has taken and made huge photographs in crunch time; he has made big defensive performs; he has stepped as much as play a whopping 40.3 MPG, together with main minutes in overtimes. Simply throughout an unbelievable begin.
Flagg’s level guard experiment
On the flip aspect, the Mavericks have opened the season with an experiment: Might Flagg play full-time level guard?
That was a danger, as a result of it isn’t an excellent use of Flagg’s talent set. Flagg is a wing with glorious measurement and energy, bodily extra of a 3-4 combo ahead than a swingman. He is an efficient ball handler and passer for his measurement, and he has a powerful all-around recreation, however he’d be extra pure as an off-ball choice that creates from the elbow than somebody that ought to be bringing the ball up and initiating the offense.
That is notably true as a result of the wings within the NBA are usually smaller and faster than Flagg, and might make life troublesome for him if he is enjoying that position. Flagg has already confronted glorious defensive wings like Stephon Fort, Scottie Barnes and the combo of Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace, and that has contributed to his gradual begin within the NBA.
How it will play out over the remainder of the season?
This query is a little more sophisticated.
Trying nearer at Edgecombe: We’ve to anticipate some regression in his numbers. Nobody performs greater than 40 minutes per recreation for a complete season in right now’s NBA, so his minutes will very possible roll again.
As well as, it is vitally clear from the primary 4 video games that Edgecombe’s manufacturing drops when Joel Embiid is being featured. Within the two video games Embiid has both scored single digits or did not play, the rookie out of Baylor has averaged 30.0 PPG. Within the two video games Embiid has scored at the very least 20 factors, even whereas solely averaging 21.5 minutes, Edgecombe has averaged 14.5 factors.
Embiid’s well being is all the time a dangerous proposition, but when the 76ers’ plan to convey him alongside slowly and handle his minutes pays dividends, it’s possible Edgecombe’s numbers will lower — much more so than Tyrese Maxey. And none of that even initiatives what occurs if and when Paul George and Jared McCain return, requiring minutes and utilization which are presently going to Edgecombe.
Trying nearer at Flagg: It seems like Flagg has nowhere to go however up. Sure, the make-up of the Mavericks has performed an element in how he is been deployed. The Mavs have two good facilities, Anthony Davis on the 4 and P.J. Washington on the three. And with Kyrie Irving out and offseason addition D’Angelo Russell enjoying sparingly off the bench, Flagg has been the man at level guard.
However this example is not working for Flagg, and it is not working for the Mavericks both. They’re 1-3, subsequent to final within the Western Convention, with a -10.0 PPG scoring margin that illustrates how uncompetitive they’ve been.
With no inside data, I’ve to really feel like coach Jason Kidd will ultimately see the writing on the wall and transfer Flagg off the ball. Perhaps meaning beginning Russell within the brief time period, figuring out that Irving is presently anticipated again someday within the new 12 months.
Both method, if/when Flagg strikes again to a extra pure position I believe his manufacturing will flourish. The scale, talent set and moxie I noticed on show in Las Vegas Summer time League ought to translate to some huge video games within the NBA as effectively.
Betting and fantasy outlook
Betting: I do not see numerous worth in betting both Edgecombe (+110) or Flagg (+115) at primarily even cash for a future that is months away.
My method can be to attend one other week or two and see if both participant, more than likely Edgecombe, strikes extra firmly into the favourite slot. If, at the moment, I might get Flagg at nearer to +300 or higher, that might be stable worth as a result of I do anticipate his position to alter and his manufacturing to enhance in some unspecified time in the future this season. And it might occur at a time when Edgecombe’s manufacturing may wane as his workforce will get more healthy.
Edgecombe is unquestionably enjoying like one of the best rookie within the league proper now, but it surely’s an extended season and I’d time my bets for when the worth proposition is extra favorable than it’s in the meanwhile.
Fantasy: The identical evaluation means that Edgecombe might probably be a trade-high prospect within the brief time period. He is taking the league by storm and placing up some monster numbers in his first few video games, so if he is in your roster you might in all probability get good worth for him now.
On the flip aspect, Flagg’s commerce worth might be about as little as it’s going to get, and except/till his position adjustments it’s unlikely that his worth bounces again. However I believe that bounce-back will happen, making Flagg a probably good candidate to commerce for now.