Congratulations on making it greater than midway by the Eliminator season. Solely 6.4% of remaining entries are nonetheless alive by Week 9. Final week featured the 2 largest upsets of the season with the Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings upsetting the Inexperienced Bay Packers and Detroit Lions respectively.
With the season over midway executed, technique turns into extra essential. Begin to map out the second half of the season and be sure you depart your self choices every week as 9 groups are already gone.
A number of of the highest picks in Week 10 are broadly unavailable for many customers. The Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Lions and Seattle Seahawks are nice selections, however this column has already used all of them. Denver could be the highest choose if obtainable.
Since this column has used these groups, it is a troublesome selection between the Panthers and Buffalo Payments. The Payments are the safer selection however have a number of interesting matchups down the street. The Panthers are riskier however haven’t any future worth.
Because of the Panthers’ projected excessive choice price, the official column choose would be the Payments. The Panthers are a beneath common staff in a division recreation, so if they are going to be fashionable, I might lean in direction of pivoting elsewhere and hoping for the upset.
Mike Clay’s Eliminator Problem cheat sheet
The Broncos are the most important favorites of the week in line with each Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics’ fashions. It is also their best remaining recreation of the season. Whereas “Thursday Night time Soccer” has featured a number of upsets this season, traditionally large favorites win at a better price on Thursday than Sunday or Monday. They’re the best choice if you happen to nonetheless have them obtainable.
ESPN Analytics likelihood to win: 73%
Mike Clay likelihood to win: 89%
ESPN BET line: Broncos -9.5 (-550 cash line)
Eliminator Problem: 17% chosen
That is the Colts’ highest win chance in any remaining recreation in line with ESPN Analytics. It is also their second-most lopsided matchup of the week. The Colts have just one extra comparatively gentle matchup (Week 17 vs. the Jaguars), so their future worth is restricted however greater than Denver’s. Coming off a recreation with six turnovers towards the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Colts are due for some optimistic regression towards a Falcons staff that’s beneath common on either side of the ball.
ESPN Analytics likelihood to win: 70%
Mike Clay likelihood to win: 80%
ESPN BET line: Colts -6.5 (-260 cash line)
Eliminator Problem: 2% chosen
The Jayden Daniels harm opens up a chance. The Lions have a number of remaining video games with comparable win chance (Weeks 12, 14 and 16), however Mike Clay has this because the Lions’ best recreation of that group. The Lions are coming off a foul loss, however they’ve received and coated 12 straight after a loss. With the Lions being evenly chosen this week, they’re a really robust selection if nonetheless obtainable.
ESPN Analytics likelihood to win: 65%
Mike Clay likelihood to win: 75%
ESPN BET line: Lions -8.5 (-550 cash line)
Eliminator Problem: 2% chosen
Josh Allen is 12-1 in his profession towards the Dolphins together with the playoffs. Like the opposite groups on this record, the Payments are unavailable for a lot of entrants, which can preserve their choice price low. They’ve three extra weeks the place they are going to be large favorites (Weeks 14, 16 and 18), however they’re the most important betting favorites this week and the second-biggest in line with Mike Clay. When you nonetheless have the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, the Payments are a good higher choice, because the Payments and Chiefs appear to be the clear prime two selections in Week 16 proper now.
ESPN Analytics likelihood to win: 69%
Mike Clay likelihood to win: 84%
ESPN BET line: Payments -9.5 (-650 cash line)
Eliminator Problem: 6% chosen
The Panthers make a ton of sense as one of many larger favorites this week with just about no future worth. Nevertheless, they’re nonetheless the seventh-worst staff in line with ESPN Analytics, they usually mission to be fashionable. That is the primary time the Panthers have been favored all season, and in every of the previous 9 occasions they have been favored, they’ve misplaced. In the event that they win, it can put you in higher form down the street, and they’re the fourth-biggest favorites in line with each ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay. But when I’ve one of many top-4 groups above them, I might attempt to acquire leverage on the sector and fade a chalky Panthers squad.
ESPN Analytics likelihood to win: 66%
Mike Clay likelihood to win: 75%
ESPN BET line: Panthers -5.5 (-240 cash line)
Eliminator Problem: 15% chosen