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ESPN Eliminator Problem is among the most enjoyable and easy video games to play this NFL season. The foundations are easy — choose one workforce, and so long as they win (or tie), you advance to the subsequent spherical. In the event that they lose, you’re out. The one caveat is you can’t choose the identical workforce twice.
Final season’s recreation was as troublesome as we’ve ever seen. Practically 95% of entries final season have been eradicated by Week 4, as large favorites misplaced at an unprecedented price. Each favourite of no less than a landing misplaced outright in that span.
So, have we realized something from final 12 months? In fact not. Over the long term, the largest favorites are likely to win probably the most, regardless of final season’s early outcomes.
One advantage of final season might be extra unfold out alternatives amongst picks this week. No workforce is greater than 18% chosen this week, which means there is no such thing as a apparent workforce to fade for leverage functions.
The highest play this week would be the hottest play: the Denver Broncos. Nonetheless, a number of different groups additionally make sense. The Philadelphia Eagles have related win chance to the Broncos. The Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders might need the very best mixture of win chance and lack of future worth. And there are a number of different logical performs down the board, together with the Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Mike Clay’s Eliminator Problem cheat sheet
1. Denver Broncos (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The Broncos are the obvious selection in Week 1, as each Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics give Denver the very best probability of any workforce to win Week 1. ESPN Analytics additionally has this as their best recreation all season, although they are going to have interesting house video games in opposition to the Giants, Jets, Raiders and Jaguars later within the season. Denver is a troublesome spot for Cam Ward to make his first profession begin, and rookie quarterbacks are 1-9-1 in Week 1 since 2019. The Broncos might be chalky, however not chalky sufficient to keep away from them as the highest choose on the board.
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Mike Clay probability to win: 75%
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ESPN Analytics probability to win: 70%
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ESPN BET line: Broncos -7.5 (-400 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem: 18% chosen
2. Washington Commanders (vs. New York Giants)
That is Washington’s best recreation all season in keeping with ESPN Analytics, and the Commanders are the third-biggest favorites of Week 1. There’s some advantage to saving them, as Mike Clay makes the Commanders the largest favorites in Week 3 at house in opposition to the Las Vegas Raiders. Nonetheless, regardless of the Commanders being the No. 8 workforce in keeping with ESPN Analytics, there aren’t that many apparent alternatives to pick them, so this week is sensible.
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Mike Clay probability to win: 68%
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ESPN Analytics probability to win: 69%
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ESPN BET line: Commanders -6.5 (-260 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem: 13% chosen
3. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
The Eagles are the second-largest favorites this week in each metric right here. They swept the Cowboys final season with two blowout wins and have received 5 of the previous six conferences in Philadelphia. The most important purpose to not use them is that they’re favored in 17 of 18 video games this season, in keeping with ESPN Analytics, so there might be loads of alternatives to make use of them.
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Mike Clay probability to win: 70%
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ESPN Analytics probability to win: 69%
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ESPN BET line: Eagles -7.5 (-360 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem: 15% chosen
4. Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland Browns)
Fading the Browns will seemingly turn into a staple of this column, and doing it in Week 1 is viable. That is Cincinnati’s best recreation till Week 18, in keeping with Mike Clay, so in case you like Bengals, there is no such thing as a purpose to save lots of them. Nonetheless, the Bengals are 1-11 within the first two weeks of the season over the previous six years and, traditionally, divisional highway favorites in early-season video games are dangerous bets. If you may get previous these developments, the Bengals make sense given their win chance and future schedule.
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Mike Clay probability to win: 73%
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ESPN Analytics probability to win: 65%
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ESPN BET line: Bengals -5.5 (-250 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem: 8% chosen
5. Arizona Cardinals (at New Orleans Saints)
The Cardinals have three video games with no less than a 65% probability to win, in keeping with Mike Clay, and all three are throughout the first 5 video games, together with this week. The Saints grade out because the worst workforce within the NFL in keeping with ESPN Analytics, so concentrating on their opponent each week might be a viable technique, beginning in Week 1. Nonetheless, watch out with the Cardinals, as they haven’t received as highway favorites since 2021, together with going 0-2 final season.
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Mike Clay probability to win: 68%
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ESPN Analytics probability to win: 69%
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ESPN BET line: Cardinals -6.5 (-280 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem: 10% chosen
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6. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Carolina Panthers)
That is the highest contrarian play of the week, because the Jaguars are solely 3.5-point favorites. They’ve little future worth, as that is their best recreation all season on paper in keeping with Mike Clay, and it is their best till Week 18 in keeping with ESPN Analytics. The Jaguars are riskier than many of the different groups on this record, however ESPN Analytics nonetheless offers them the fifth-best probability to win, and they’ll be minimally chosen.
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Mike Clay probability to win: 60%
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ESPN Analytics probability to win: 61%
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ESPN BET line: Jaguars -3.5 (-195 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem: 3% chosen
7. New England Patriots (vs Las Vegas Raiders)
This is among the greatest discrepancies between Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics’ fashions. Clay offers the Patriots a 73% probability to win, whereas the ESPN Analytics mannequin is at solely 52%. If you’re excessive on the Patriots like Mike Clay is, they’re interesting at round 2% choice. Nonetheless, the Patriots nonetheless host the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers and New York Giants later within the season, so there might be loads of probabilities to make use of New England, particularly if Drake Maye and firm take a step ahead.
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Mike Clay probability to win: 73%
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ESPN Analytics probability to win: 52%
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ESPN BET line: Patriots -2.5 (-145 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem: 2% chosen
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