After eight straight weeks of turnover on the high, we lastly have stability within the Heisman market. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza stays the favourite for a second week in a row, whereas we’ve a brand new high two favorites for the nationwide title.
This is a whole look.
Breaking down six gamers for Heisman
High three favorites
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana +300 
Final week +300
I am staying in line with my reads. Mendoza’s the rightful favourite as a result of Indiana is undefeated; he is finishing 73% of passes, and his 24-3 TD/INT ratio is elite. The actual fact his quantity did not transfer regardless of one other blowout win reveals the market already baked in his dominance. The one cause to carry off betting him now could be timing, he is already priced at peak. However when it comes to odds, sure, (nonetheless) justified.
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State +400
Final week +400
Sayin is the “Heisman prototype” in that he is main a big-name program, an undefeated staff, with near-flawless command. He does not have the deep-ball spotlight reel but, however the 80% completion fee at 9.4 YPA is absurd. He is additionally dominating environment friendly metrics (No. 2 in QBR). His one weak point is that he performs in an offense that distributes the credit score. Sayin is just on a whole staff.
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama +400
Final week +350
Simpson’s stats are clear, and Alabama retains successful, however there isn’t any Heisman pop. His finest sport (382 yards vs. Wisconsin) shouldn’t be sufficient and he isn’t doing something spectacular on the bottom. The story is “environment friendly quarterback of resurgent Alabama.” If Bama wins out and he finishes with 35+ TDs and a pair of or fewer INTs, he is a finalist, nevertheless it’s extra Mac Jones-type finalist. Simpson is a contender, not a frontrunner — regular however not electrical.
High 3 greatest movers
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M +700
Final week +1100
Reed’s case is intriguing. He isn’t essentially the most impactful; he is essentially the most full. You take away him and A&M might nonetheless win eight video games with that protection and backfield. However Reed is enjoying QB for an 8-0 SEC staff that has averaged 40 a sport with 23 whole touchdowns, with street wins at Notre Dame, Arkansas and LSU — the resume that will get nationwide airtime. Whereas others are holding applications collectively, Reed is constructing a playoff resume. That distinction is why his odds have actual traction. Should you’re value-hunting, Reed could also be it.
Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt +700
Final week +1400
The transfer is comprehensible as a result of folks love the underdog story. However it is a traditional case of sentiment outpacing actuality. Pavia’s numbers (20 whole TDs) are stable, not spectacular, and Vanderbilt’s ceiling is capped. The Bama loss already erased the nationwide splash second he wanted. He can keep in dialog, nevertheless it’s extra of a enjoyable narrative, moderately than a successful ticket.
Haynes King, QB, Georgia Tech +3000
Final week +7500
I am not letting this one go. Nobody’s extra indispensable to their staff than King. With out him, GT shouldn’t be 8-0 for the primary time since 1966. King’s speeding output (651 yards, 12 TDs) is wild for a QB, making him the heartbeat of the staff. The issue is aesthetic, however he is massively undervalued in comparison with manufacturing. Most dear participant in school soccer? 100% sure. Sadly, he is additionally the least possible Heisman winner of the six. Beat Georgia and that is his ticket.
A brand new take a look at the nationwide title odds
Indiana +600
Final week +800
Ohio State deservedly stays the favourite (+225 from +260 final week) however we’ve a brand new high two within the nationwide title odds, with Indiana swapping spots with Alabama. I agree with this transfer as a result of the market has lastly caught as much as what the numbers have been displaying for weeks.
Indiana has quietly constructed one of the vital full profiles within the nation, ranked first in EPA per play and total success fee, sitting inside the highest 15 on each offense and protection. Mendoza continues to steer with effectivity, whereas Roman Hemby and the run sport preserve the offense on schedule. Defensively, Indiana prevents large performs, tackles properly in area, and forces opponents to grind for each yard.
There’s a legit argument that Indiana is essentially the most full staff in school soccer. A couple of weeks in the past, we backed IU to win at a greater value. Even at 6-1, I nonetheless see worth.
Betting consideration: Texas A&M to win the SEC +185
A pair weeks in the past I wrote that I used to be mistaken about Alabama. Not mistaken about their flaws, as a result of I nonetheless see the identical points I identified in August, however mistaken about their ceiling. We have now seen that model; the offense clicking in rhythm, Simpson working at full management and the Tide successful video games behind effectivity.
However there is a distinction between being adequate to win weekly and being constructed to win the convention.
At +185, Texas A&M affords that construction. They’re the sharper, extra full staff, and the one whose numbers maintain up week after week. The Aggies are top-10 in each offensive and defensive effectivity, lead the SEC in sack fee, and generate over 5 yards per rush whereas holding opponents under 4. They will win by means of the air, they’ll win within the trenches, and so they’ve proven adaptability towards a number of kinds.
Alabama nonetheless lives on status. And I get it. Bama has 4 wins towards ranked groups. Successful video games is difficult however successful them late is more durable.
The turnover margin retains Bama afloat, however their speeding inefficiency and lack of stress up entrance restrict the ceiling that issues most: championship soccer.
Alabama as the favourite is sensible but when this market is about sustainability, not nostalgia, the worth is evident. Mike Elko’s defense-first construction is constructed to win a convention that calls for bodily dominance, adaptability and a whole roster. The Aggies verify these packing containers proper now.