The stretch run of the baseball season is quickly approaching. Earlier than you understand it, the MLB commerce deadline shall be right here, and roughly two weeks after that — Friday, Aug. 15, at midday ET — our normal fantasy baseball commerce deadline arrives.
With the All-Star break only a few days away, now could be the best time to re-examine your roster, decide what areas may warrant enchancment, and make some commerce gives. In any case, the annual four-day respite from the day-to-day lineup setting grind begins on Monday. It is an ideal alternative for looking for out trades.
Ah, however what to focus on in a deal? That is the place the Forecaster projections will help. Pulling in all 30 groups’ second-half schedules — that means this examine begins solely with the video games on Friday, July 18 — I’ve evaluated all of them to find out which groups have it the best and hardest the remainder of the best way.
In any case, whereas gamers’ talent units are the driving pressure in fantasy valuations, do not underestimate the influence of matchups. Even the slightest edge over what’s roughly 40% of the season left to play pays big dividends in fantasy leagues.
For this, I’ve taken solely participant and crew projections, quite than statistics already within the tank. (What good does it do to rely stats accrued by out-for-the-season gamers?) Utilizing this info, I’ve graded every crew’s schedule relative to the league common. Hitters and pitchers are examined individually.
Naturally, the Colorado Rockies, because of the “hitters’ heaven” nature of their house ballpark have the second-half’s greatest hitters’ and worst pitchers’ schedules (8.3% higher and eight.6% worse than league common). That is largely the results of their 35 house video games, tied for third-most.
In addition they have the third-most righty heavy schedule, with these two elements mixed a possible boon for Mickey Moniak, who has wOBAs 109 factors greater at house than on the street, and 69 factors greater in opposition to right- than left-handers.
Eradicating the Coors Discipline denizens from the equation, let’s check out the opposite groups and potential indiviuals to focus on primarily based on what’s nonetheless left to play on the 2025 schedule.
Finest non-Rockies hitter schedules
Atlanta Braves (3.8% higher than league common): Atlanta faces solely two pitching staffs that the Forecaster grades 5% or extra higher than league common for the rest of the yr — the Cleveland Guardians (Aug. 15-17, in Cleveland) and Seattle Mariners (Sept. 5-7, in Atlanta). Moreover, the Braves are the crew likeliest to face the biggest quantity of left-handed pitching through the second half (probably 30% of their opposing starters), which is a boon to Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna, who’ve traditionally been wonderful in opposition to lefties.
Cleveland Guardians (3.1% higher): Their 38 house video games are the majors’ most, which says so much concerning the high quality of pitching they’re going to face, contemplating Progressive Discipline has been an excessive pitchers’ park in recent times. The Guardians are additionally second most-likely to face the biggest quantity of right-handed pitching (probably 80% of their opposing starters), which might result in higher second halves for Nolan Jones and Kyle Manzardo.
Minnesota Twins (3.0% higher): The Twins play a great share of the second half in hitter-friendly environments, as along with half of their 66 video games coming at their very own Goal Discipline, they’re going to additionally make three-game visits to Coors Discipline, Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre and Residents Financial institution Park. Carlos Correa and Trevor Larnach might significantly profit from the advantageous schedule.
Different groups on this aspect: Los Angeles Angels, 1.8% higher; Toronto Blue Jays, 1.6% higher; Houston Astros, 1.2% higher.
Worst hitter schedules
New York Mets (6.6% worse than league common): They’ve struggled since mid-June (simply 3.89 runs per sport since June 15, seventh-worst), and their second-half schedule is something however forgiving. That is very true between July 25 and Aug. 17, when the Mets face the San Francisco Giants (six video games), San Diego Padres (3), Guardians (3), Milwaukee Brewers (3), Braves (3) and Mariners (3). General, no crew performs a better quantity of second-half video games in pitchers’ parks than the Mets. This might be a great time to money in a pink scorching hitter like Brandon Nimmo.
St. Louis Cardinals (3.8% worse): Their second half begins with a six-game street journey to Chase Discipline and Coors Discipline, however after that, they get virtually no breaks on the hitting aspect the remainder of the best way. The Cardinals, just like the Mets, additionally play a big quantity of their video games in pitchers’ parks — and the biggest as soon as that preliminary street journey is completed.
Athletics (3.7% worse): Their 30 second-half house video games, on the excessive hitter-friendly atmosphere of Triple-A’s Sutter Well being Park, are fourth-fewest within the majors. Tuck that away for those who roster both Jacob Wilson or Lawrence Butler, who respectively have 61 and 65 points-higher wOBAs at house than on the street this season.
On a associated observe, the Tampa Bay Rays, baseball’s different crew calling a Triple-A venue its house this season, has an MLB-low 28 house video games and a hitting schedule 2.2% worse than league common (sixth-worst).
Different groups on this aspect: San Francisco Giants, 3.2% worse; Chicago White Sox, 3.2% worse.
Finest pitcher schedules
San Diego Padres (5.3% higher than league common): The Padres face lots of unhealthy offenses through the second half, together with seven video games in opposition to the Rockies and three apiece in opposition to the White Sox, Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals. In addition they make journeys to excessive pitchers parks loanDepot Park, Oracle Park, T-Cellular Park and Citi Discipline. The comfortable schedule strengthens the case for Yu Darvish and Michael King ending robust after current accidents, and for Dylan Stop to rebound from a lackluster first half.
New York Mets (3.7% higher): All these video games in pitching-friendly environments swimsuit Mets pitchers effectively and, just like the Padres, they’ve a pair of recovering starters in Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga who ought to profit.
Houston Astros (3.3%): Historical past favors their pitchers, as their 3.30 post-break ERA from 2021-24 is third-best in baseball, and so they’ve additionally gained a third-best 59.4% of their video games in that point. This yr’s schedule is loads comfortable, and will assist each Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez stay amongst fantasy’s greatest starters.
Different groups on this aspect: St. Louis Cardinals, 3.1%; Chicago Cubs, 2.8%; New York Yankees, 2.8%.
Worst non-Rockies pitcher schedules
Boston Pink Sox (6.3% worse than league common): Surprisingly sufficient, they play the second-fewest house video games of any crew through the second half (29), that means they’re up in opposition to some robust competitors contemplating the hitter-friendly nature of Fenway Park. About the one reprieves their pitchers will get are a five-game stretch at house in opposition to the Marlins and Baltimore Orioles (Aug. 15-19) and their seven-game Week 22 in opposition to those self same Orioles and the Pittsburgh Pirates (Aug. 25-31). Lucas Giolito shall be hard-pressed to increase his present scorching streak.
Cincinnati Reds (5.0% worse): They name considered one of baseball’s most HR-friendly environments their house, which drags their schedule score down, but it surely additionally does not assist that they may play 19 video games in opposition to top-five offenses, along with not less than 15 in opposition to groups simply exterior that cutoff. Count on fewer streaming alternatives from Reds starters through the second half.
Texas Rangers (3.7% worse): They’ve a brutal second-half schedule, significantly fantasy’s Weeks 20 and 21 (Aug. 4-17), after they face nothing however top-eight graded offenses. It has been a magical comeback yr for Jacob deGrom, however contemplating his intensive damage historical past and the difficult schedule forward, it is not less than value listening to what you would get for him in commerce.
Different groups on this aspect: Milwaukee Brewers, 1.9% worse; Kansas Metropolis Royals, 1.6%; Detroit Tigers, 1.6% worse.