Austin Reaves has improved every season he has been within the NBA, peaking final season at 20.2 PPG, 5.8 APG and 4.5 RPG because the third possibility on a Lakers crew the place the primary two choices shifted midseason from LeBron James and Anthony Davis to Luka Doncic and James.
This season, the 27-year-old Reaves has been the second choice to Doncic whereas James has been sidelined, and he has additionally performed three video games as the primary possibility when Doncic was out as properly.
The outcomes have been … explosive.
By means of seven video games, Reaves has averaged a whopping 31.1 PPG, 9.3 APG, 5.1 RPG, 3.0 3PG and 1.4 SPG. These are numbers that may not solely put him within the fantasy MVP dialogue, however within the total NBA MVP dialogue as properly.
Can Reaves maintain this manufacturing?
Fantasy managers with Reaves are confronted with a tough choice: commerce him whereas his worth is sky-high or maintain on to him and hope he generally is a key a part of a fantasy championship run.
First, let’s take a look at how Reaves is producing in his numerous roles this season. In three video games as the primary possibility with Doncic sidelined, Reaves has averaged online game numbers: 40.0 PPG, 10.0 APG, 5.3 RPG, 4.0 3PG, 2.3 SPG and 4.3 TO in 39.3 MPG. He shot 50.0% from the sphere and 41.4% behind the arc.
In 4 video games as a second possibility behind Doncic, Reaves has averaged 24.5 PPG, 8.7 APG, 5.0 RPG, 2.3 3PG and 0.8 SPG and a pair of.7 TO in 36.8 PPG. He shot 47.8% from the sphere and 28.1% from behind the arc.
These are all small pattern sizes, however I do see some helpful knowledge.
First, Reaves has not scored fewer than 21 factors in any recreation this season. There is a consistency that signifies Reaves is, in actual fact, nonetheless getting higher as a participant and his scoring is sustainable with alternative.
Second, Reaves’ rebounding and assists have stayed largely constant relying on function, however his scoring quantity, 3-point quantity and turnovers enhance dramatically as he goes from the second choice to the primary. This makes macro sense as a result of his utilization goes up a lot as the primary possibility. His assists dip a bit, however not an enormous quantity, suggesting that Reaves will proceed to be a plus passer that makes use of his possessions to be each a scorer and a distributor.
The third remark, in some methods, is most fascinating to me. Reaves’ taking pictures percentages from the sphere and, extra notably, behind the arc have dropped when Reaves was within the second seat. His steals additionally dropped precipitously. Whereas these may all be small-sample results, they is also a sign that Reaves likes establishing his photographs, notably his 3-pointers, off his personal creation versus being extra of a spot-up shooter whose photographs are created by his teammate.
And, as a defender, Reaves could also be extra engaged and keen to take probabilities for steals when he is within the major chair versus when he is taking part in a extra help function. The taking pictures percentages, for my part, are almost definitely a small pattern measurement impact that may settle out with time.
What occurs to Reaves when LeBron returns?
Now, let’s challenge what this may inform us about what to anticipate from Reaves as soon as Doncic and James are each obtainable.
As people, each are very excessive utilization varieties that ought to additional restrict Reaves’ alternatives. Reaves offensive manufacturing because the third possibility doubtless settles out someplace between his stage from final season and his stage because the second possibility this season. That is a low 20s scorer with about 5 boards and perhaps six to seven assists.
If we assume that his chilly taking pictures because the second possibility thus far is a small pattern state of affairs, his taking pictures percentages doubtless stage off just like his percentages from final season.
However we additionally need to issue within the uncertainty of whether or not Doncic and James shall be totally wholesome for the rest of the season. Each have damage histories that recommend they might miss extra time because the season goes alongside. If that’s the case, we have seen the type of upside Reaves has when known as upon.
My tough backside line estimate is that Reaves tasks as a top-50 fantasy prospect because the third possibility, top-25 as a second possibility, and top-10 because the lead. And there’s a probability that he’ll spend at the very least a while in all three roles because the season progresses.
What’s Reaves’ commerce worth, when you do look to deal him?
So far as commerce worth, if I may commerce him for worth anyplace close to what he’s presently averaging I’d do it.
If I had been buying and selling for Reaves, I’d accomplish that if I may get him close to the worth of the place he was drafted.
His precise worth in fantasy leagues doubtless splits the distinction, with an anticipated worth simply above his draft standing however upside to change into a top-10-caliber participant for stretches at any time primarily based upon alternative.