Welcome to The Playbook for Week 13, which kicks off Thursday with three Thanksgiving Day video games.
This column options rating projections, over/unders, win chances, and naturally, simply digestible fantasy recommendation for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This information ought to enable you with all types of decision-making, together with sit/begin, last-minute waiver provides and lineup decisions.
Moreover, we’ve folded our Shadow Experiences, beforehand a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns right here. Utilizing our play-by-play knowledge, we’re capable of determine defensive schemes and the place every large receiver and cornerback traces up on every play. By monitoring these WR/CB matchups, together with potential shadow conditions, we will supply the perfect fantasy steerage solutions every week.
All of this recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively customary scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 Okay, 1 D/ST), though I am going to typically point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who’ve been projected for no less than 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is routinely decided utilizing a proprietary metric that components in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection this season.
(Editor’s observe: Projections and rankings will align virtually completely, however generally when a projection is shut, a participant is likely to be ranked barely greater or decrease due to different components, together with upside or danger. This column is topic to updates in the course of the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings might be up to date on the positioning and projections will all the time be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)
GB-DET | KC-DAL| CIN-BAL | CHI-PHI | SF-CLE | JAC-TEN | HOU-IND | NO-MIA
ATL-NYJ | ARI-TB | LAR-CAR | MIN-SEA | BUF-PIT| LV-LAC| DEN-WAS | NYG-NE
Projected rating: Lions 26, Packers 24
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fantasy scoop: Jameson Williams has scored 16-plus fantasy factors in 4 of his previous seven video games, however he is totaled (sure, totaled) 2.0 factors in his different three outings in the course of the span. The latter quantity contains zero-catch efforts in opposition to the Bucs in Week 7 and Giants in Week 12. Williams was coping with shadow protection through Cor’Dale Flott this previous Sunday, however his growth/bust nature has made him a dangerous fantasy choice. Although he is all the time a risk for an enormous play, Williams has a troublesome Thanksgiving project in opposition to a Inexperienced Bay protection that held him to 23 yards on 5 targets in Week 1. The Packers have allowed the sixth-fewest yards to receivers, and solely two have reached 17.5 factors in opposition to them (each have been previous to Week 7). Williams stays a growth/bust WR3.
Over/underneath: 50.8 (4th highest)
Win likelihood: Lions 57% (Lowest)
Projected rating: Chiefs 29, Cowboys 26
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, George Pickens, Travis Kelce, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: Xavier Worthy was focused eight occasions on Sunday, essentially the most he is seen in a recreation since hitting a season excessive with 9 in Week 5. Regardless of the uptick, Worthy was restricted to 59 yards and has been held under 12 fantasy factors in seven straight video games and eight of 9 outings this season. Worthy has discovered the top zone solely as soon as (he had 12 TDs in 20 video games final season) and he is struggled to generate massive performs (underneath 60 yards in all however one recreation). His latest goal share (19% over his previous 4 video games) is stable, however solely sufficient to make him a low-ceiling flex in opposition to an bettering Dallas protection.
Over/underneath: 54.6 (Highest)
Win likelihood: Chiefs 60% (twelfth highest)
Projected rating: Ravens 29, Bengals 23
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Zay Flowers
Fantasy scoop: Joe Burrow is predicted again from damage this week. Burrow has performed just one full recreation this season, a Week 1 effort in opposition to the Browns during which he accomplished 14 of 23 passes for 113 yards and one landing. Burrow, who led the NFL in cross makes an attempt, completions, yards and touchdowns final season, will definitely throw the ball extra typically this week than he did in Week 1, which, alongside together with his elite expertise, is sufficient to place him as a fringe QB1. That mentioned, he is not fairly a lineup lock, because it’s unclear if he’ll be capable to generate a lot together with his legs in a troublesome matchup in opposition to a much-improved Baltimore protection that hasn’t allowed a quarterback to achieve 15 fantasy factors since Week 5.
Shadow Report: Anticipate DJ Turner to shadow Flowers on his perimeter routes this week, as he did when these groups met in Week 11 of the 2023 season (Flowers scored 7.3 fantasy factors in that recreation) and Week 10 final season (7.4). Extra notably, Turner has shadowed typically this season and has performed exceedingly effectively. The 9 receivers he has shadowed averaged 7.9 fantasy PPG, together with 9.9 for DK Metcalf two weeks in the past and 4.0 for Stefon Diggs this previous Sunday. Flowers needs to be downgraded a bit, although he’ll keep away from Turner the 33% of the time he is within the slot. Different Ravens pass-catchers, particularly tight finish Mark Andrews, needs to be upgraded in opposition to a protection permitting the best EPA in opposition to the cross.
Over/underneath: 52.5 (2nd highest)
Win likelihood: Ravens 70% (sixth highest)
Projected rating: Eagles 26, Bears 22
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Rome Odunze, DeVonta Smith
Fantasy scoop: D’Andre Swift’s worth is trending down after he was on the quick finish of a committee with rookie Kyle Monangai on Sunday. Whereas Monangai racked up 12 carries and nil targets on 34 snaps (16 routes), Swift dealt with eight carries and one goal on 26 snaps (13 routes). This marked the primary recreation during which Monangai out-snapped Swift, so it is attainable the snaps revert again, however Swift did not precisely do a lot to recommend he needs to be featured (29 yards on 9 touches, in comparison with 48 yards and one TD on 12 touches for Monangai). Swift’s 1.9 fantasy factors have been simply a season low, although he was held to 9.0 factors the week prior regardless of dealing with 21 touches. Monangai, in the meantime, has scored in three straight video games however was held underneath 11 fantasy factors in all three and in 9 of 11 video games this season. The uncertainty of how touches might be distributed makes each backs dangerous in a impartial matchup in opposition to the Eagles on Friday, although Swift’s bigger physique of labor makes him the safer flex choice.
Shadow Report: Rome Odunze can anticipate shadow protection courtesy of Quinyon Mitchell this week. Mitchell has shadowed the opposing workforce’s high perimeter receiver in six video games this season. These six receivers averaged 11.8 fantasy PPG, with Emeka Egbuka, Courtland Sutton and Davante Adams every reaching 14.6. Although it is a powerful matchup and the Eagles protection has typically performed effectively, it is price noting that George Pickens went for 29.6 factors in opposition to Philly on Sunday. Like Pickens, Odunze is his workforce’s high boundary receiver. Odunze’s bust danger his greater than standard, however he is nonetheless within the WR2 combine.
Over/underneath: 48.1 (sixth highest)
Win likelihood: Eagles 65% (ninth highest)
Projected rating: 49ers 22, Browns 18
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: Shedeur Sanders made his first NFL begin on Sunday and accomplished 11 of 20 passes for 209 yards, one TD and one INT, dropping 1 yard on his lone carry. Although the YPA appears good, Sanders benefited significantly from hitting on three massive performs in opposition to a poor protection, two of which have been downfield throws (52 yards to Isaiah Bond, 39 yards to Jerry Jeudy) and the opposite of which was a 66-yard catch and run by Dylan Sampson. Sanders deserves credit score for making sufficient performs to win, however he’ll want to enhance his accuracy (55% completion charge, 25% off-target charge within the recreation) and add some worth together with his legs to be able to discover his option to fantasy worth. He has one other good matchup this week (the 49ers sit high eight in passing yards and TDs allowed) however needs to be considered as not more than a weak QB2 choice in superflex leagues.
Over/underneath: 39.6 (14th highest)
Win likelihood: 49ers 64% (tenth highest)
Projected rating: Jaguars 24, Titans 19
Lineup lock: Travis Etienne Jr.
Fantasy scoop: Brenton Unusual returned from IR on Sunday and caught all 5 of his targets for a career-high 93 yards. Regardless of having but to search out the top zone this season, Unusual is averaging a stable 10.3 fantasy PPG in 5 full video games, which might rank 14th amongst certified tight ends over the complete season. Unusual’s 5.6 targets per recreation (16.7% share) are sufficient to place him as a stable TE2, although he is maybe not the perfect Week 13 streaming choice in opposition to a Titans protection that has struggled total however been fairly good in opposition to tight ends. Tennessee has held the likes of Tyler Warren (twice), Trey McBride and Hunter Henry to single-digit fantasy factors, and just one TE has reached 12 factors (Michael Mayer in Week 6).
Shadow Report: Improve Jacksonville’s receivers in opposition to a Titans protection that has surrendered the fourth-most fantasy factors to receivers, together with the second most over the previous 4 weeks. Tennessee additionally sits high three in yards, catch charge and yards per goal allowed to receivers. One week after permitting an enormous 37.1 factors to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tennessee corners Jalyn Armour-Davis, Sam Womack, Marcus Harris and Darrell Baker Jr. will do their greatest to gradual Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington.
Over/underneath: 42.4 (eleventh highest)
Win likelihood: Jaguars 66% (eighth highest)
Projected rating: Colts 25, Texans 21
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Nico Collins, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren
Shadow Report: Downgrade Collins, Jayden Higgins and all Texans receivers in opposition to a now-healthy Colts cornerback room that’s maybe greatest within the NFL. Collins (79% perimeter) and Higgins (77%) will spend most of their time in opposition to Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward on the boundary, and life will not be a lot simpler for them (or slot WR Christian Kirk) in opposition to Kenny Moore after they kick inside. Collins stays a lineup lock, however Higgins is a shaky flex.
Shadow Report: It is from a lock, however there’s an opportunity Pittman will draw Derek Stingley Jr. shadow protection. Stingley has by no means shadowed Pittman, however we have seen Stingley journey with high perimeter receivers this season (Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Brian Thomas Jr., Courtland Sutton) and we have seen Pittman shadowed on his boundary routes at occasions, together with in opposition to Pat Surtain II and Max Melton. Regardless, it is a powerful project for all Colts receivers, because the Texans have allowed the bottom catch charge and fourth-fewest fantasy factors to receivers, in addition to the bottom EPA in opposition to the cross. Solely 4 receivers have reached 13 factors in opposition to them, and the one two who reached 18 have been superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua. Downgrade Pittman, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs.
Over/underneath: 46.1 (seventh highest)
Win likelihood: Colts 63% (eleventh highest)
Projected rating: Dolphins 23, Saints 17
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle
Fantasy scoop: Alvin Kamara left Sunday’s recreation on his eleventh snap as a result of damage and will miss this recreation. Following Kamara’s departure, Devin Neal and Taysom Hill dealt with backfield duties. After not taking part in a single snap whereas Kamara was lively, Neal went on to play 58 of the Saints’ closing 66 snaps. He was restricted to seven carries however ran 31 routes and was focused eight occasions. Hill, in the meantime, performed 5 of 12 snaps with Kamara wholesome (two carries) and 19 of 66 after that time (eight carries), generally sharing the sector with Neal. (It is price noting that Hill fumbled and dedicated intentional grounding on his closing snap, then did not see the sector for the ultimate 22 performs.) With Kamara sidelined, it is seemingly that Hill, Neal and Audric Estime (wholesome scratch on Sunday) will break up backfield duties. Hill’s tight finish fantasy designation provides some intrigue to his worth, however a scarcity of receiving work this season (4 targets) makes him very dangerous and TD dependent. Neal’s huge snap and goal depend are sufficient to vault him into the flex dialog, however he is not a beneficial start thinking about he is but to be trusted with greater than seven carries in a recreation in a struggling Saints offense. This can be a scenario greatest averted.
Over/underneath: 39.6 (thirteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Dolphins 72% (fifth highest)
Projected rating: Falcons 21, Jets 19
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Breece Corridor
Fantasy scoop: John Metchie III adopted up a 3-45-1 receiving line in Week 11 with a 6-65-1 displaying on Sunday. Metchie has scored 13-plus fantasy factors in consecutive video games after reaching that mark in simply considered one of his first 41 NFL video games. After all, the 2022 second-round decide has by no means had this a lot alternative, as he is cleared an 80% snap share in two straight video games after by no means beforehand reaching that mark. Metchie paced New York receivers in snaps (50) and routes (28) on Sunday, and tied Adonai Mitchell for the place lead in targets (seven). At the very least till Garrett Wilson returns, Metchie seems to have a grasp on the Jets’ No. 1 receiver position, although that will not enable constant fantasy manufacturing contemplating the workforce’s quarterback woes. Metchie is ok so as to add on waivers, however he is not more than a desperation flex for now, even in a plus matchup in opposition to the Falcons.
Over/underneath: 39.8 (twelfth highest)
Win likelihood: Falcons 58% (fifteenth highest)
Projected Rating: Buccaneers 23, Cardinals 20
Lineup locks: Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: Chris Godwin Jr. was restricted in his return from damage on Sunday, taking part in simply 34% of the snaps and totaling 9 yards on 4 targets. Godwin has but to make an influence this season, producing a grand complete of 52 yards on 14 targets throughout his solely different two appearances (Weeks 4 and 5). Godwin’s taking part in time will solely enhance because the season progresses, so he ought to stay in your roster, however we can’t be capable to belief him in lineups till he is clearly working because the workforce’s No. 1 or No. 2 goal. That is unlikely to be the state of affairs this week, so he needs to be on benches in opposition to an Arizona protection that sits midpack in opposition to the cross and with Baker Mayfield not at full power. If Godwin will get nearer to his standard position this week, he’ll seemingly land on the flex radar in opposition to the Saints in Week 14.
Over/Uunder: 43.3 (ninth highest)
Win likelihood: Buccaneers 59% (14th highest)
Projected rating: Rams 27, Panthers 16
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Rico Dowdle, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Tetairoa McMillan
Fantasy scoop: Stepping in for the injured Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson caught all 4 of his targets for 41 yards and one landing on Sunday. The veteran tight finish has scored in three consecutive video games, averaging 12.5 fantasy PPG in the course of the span. Regardless of the string of success, Parkinson is not but near beginning caliber in fantasy. Through the three-game TD stretch, he is totaled 11 targets. He hasn’t cleared 47 yards in a recreation since Week 5 of final season. Even in a decent matchup in opposition to a Carolina protection that has allowed a league-high 9.4 yards per goal to tight ends, Parkinson is not more than a back-end TE2.
Shadow Report: McMillan is an efficient guess to attract shadow protection from Emmanuel Forbes Jr. this week. Forbes traveled with Emeka Egbuka on only some performs throughout Sunday’s blowout win, however he shadowed in the course of the Rams’ prior three video games, which included matchups with Rashid Shaheed (Shaheed scored 11.8 fantasy factors within the recreation), Jauan Jennings (19.1) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (19.5). The Rams have been distinctive in opposition to the cross (second-lowest EPA allowed), however they face fairly a little bit of quantity (fifth-most cross tried confronted), which is why they sit eighth in catches and midpack in fantasy factors allowed to receivers. Expectations for McMillan needs to be diminished a bit.
Over/underneath: 42.6 (tenth highest)
Win likelihood: Rams 86% (Highest)
Projected rating: Seahawks 26, Vikings 13
Lineup locks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson
Fantasy scoop: The Vikings offense hit a brand new low on Sunday, with J.J. McCarthy throwing for 87 yards on 19 makes an attempt in a one-sided loss to Inexperienced Bay. McCarthy is now averaging 154.8 yards in his six full video games, totaling six passing TDs and 10 INTs in the course of the span. His common depth of throw (9.7), INT charge (6.3%) and sack charge (10.6%) are highest and his completion charge (54%) lowest, together with his 5.8 YPA forward of solely Dillon Gabriel amongst certified QBs. McCarthy’s struggles have been disastrous for the Vikings cross catchers, with Jefferson (underneath 11.5 fantasy factors in three straight regardless of a career-high goal share), Jordan Addison (10 or fewer factors in 4 straight, together with zero final week) and T.J. Hockenson (6.2 PPG since McCarthy’s return) all struggling. Jefferson’s heavy utilization and elite expertise maintain him within the lineup lock combine, however nobody else from this offense could be trusted, particularly in opposition to Seattle protection and with undrafted Max Brosmer unlikely to carry out significantly better than what we have seen from McCarthy.
Over/underneath: 38.8 (fifteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Seahawks 84% (third highest)
Projected rating: Payments 26, Steelers 23
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Prepare dinner III
Fantasy scoop: Kenneth Gainwell seems to have pressured his method right into a committee in Pittsburgh. The veteran again out-snapped Jaylen Warren 36 to 34 on Sunday and, although he trailed Warren 18 to 10 in carries, he was focused on six of 18 routes, in comparison with zero targets on 10 routes for Warren. Gainwell ended up with 122 yards on 16 touches, one week after producing 105 yards and two scores on 16 touches. Warren, in the meantime, put collectively an 18-68-1 speeding line however has been restricted to 2 or fewer targets in 4 straight and has reached 13 fantasy factors in simply considered one of his previous 5 outings. It seems the Steelers could also be leaning towards a near-even break up, with Warren the first rusher and Gainwell the first receiver. This can be a fantasy headache at occasions, however the excellent news is that each are within the RB2 combine this week in opposition to a Buffalo protection that has allowed essentially the most touchdowns (15), second-highest yards per carry (5.3) and third-most fantasy factors to RBs.
Shadow Report: DK Metcalf can anticipate shadow protection from Christian Benford this week. Benford has traveled with Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy factors within the recreation), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Chris Olave (11.0), Drake London (31.8), Tetairoa McMillan (16.9), Travis Kelce (10.6), Emeka Egbuka (9.0) and Nico Collins (8.5) on their perimeter routes this season. The seven large receivers averaged a wholesome 14.6 fantasy factors, although two straight have been held to single digits. Metcalf is averaging 9.0 fantasy PPG within the 5 video games he is been shadowed this season, failing to clear 12.3 in any of the 5 outings. Expectations for Pittsburgh’s high receiver needs to be lowered, however he stays within the WR3 combine.
Over/underneath: 49.1 (fifth highest)
Win likelihood: Payments 60% (thirteenth highest)
Projected rating: Chargers 24, Raiders 13
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: There was some extent earlier this season during which three Chargers receivers have been effectively price a spot in fantasy lineups. It is extra of a shaky proposition today, as, McConkey apart, it has been a battle. McConkey is coming off a tough recreation (4.3 factors) however does have 14.9-plus in 5 of his previous seven and stays the most secure play from this unit. Keenan Allen opened the season with 17-plus factors in three straight however has fallen in need of 11 in seven of eight video games since. He has one TD in the course of the span and 6 or fewer targets in 4 straight. Quentin Johnston, in the meantime, has produced 14.9-plus fantasy factors in 5 video games this season however has been held with out a catch in two of his previous 4 video games. The excellent news is that this trio is ready up with a plus matchup in opposition to a Las Vegas protection that sits high six in catches, TDs and fantasy factors allowed to receivers. The three receivers mixed for 42.8 factors when these groups met in Week 2. McConkey stays a WR2 and lineup lock, Allen is a WR3 and Johnston is a growth/bust flex.
Over/underneath: 36.8 (Lowest)
Win likelihood: Chargers 85% (2nd highest)
Projected rating: Broncos 25, Commanders 19
Lineup locks: Bo Nix, RJ Harvey, Courtland Sutton
Fantasy scoop: Once we final noticed Denver (Week 11), it was the workforce’s first recreation of the season with out J.Okay. Dobbins. The RB deployment was as follows: Harvey (37 snaps, 11 carries, three targets), Jaleel McLaughlin (8 snaps, six carries, one goal) and Tyler Badie (8 snaps, zero carries, one goal). McLaughlin scored the unit’s solely landing, however Harvey was the clear chief, dealing with 14 touches to a mixed eight by the opposite two backs. Harvey, who has six TDs in 11 video games, is on the RB2 radar this week in a wonderful matchup in opposition to a Commanders protection that has allowed the fourth-most yards and fifth-most fantasy factors to RBs this season.
Shadow Report: We’re upgrading Denver’s large receivers in opposition to a struggling and injury-plagued Washington secondary that has allowed the second-most yards, fifth-most TDs (13), third-most fantasy factors to receivers in addition to the second-highest EPA in opposition to the cross. A Washington protection that misplaced high perimeter corners Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos for the season has surrendered essentially the most yards per reception (14.3) and yards per goal (9.8) in addition to the fourth-highest catch charge to wideouts. Sutton and Troy Franklin make for higher WR2/3 choices this week, whereas Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims Jr. are notable deep sleepers.
Shadow Report: Terry McLaurin and Pat Surtain II have been out the previous few weeks, but when each return following their groups’ bye week, there is a first rate likelihood they will be matched up very often, even perhaps with Surtain shadowing McLaurin on most of his perimeter routes. Once we final noticed Surtain wholesome (Week 8), he was shadowing George Pickens to open the sport earlier than leaving injured. Previous to that, he traveled with Calvin Ridley (6.7 fantasy factors within the recreation), Michael Pittman Jr. (8.0), Quentin Johnston (14.9), Ja’Marr Chase (7.3), A.J. Brown (9.3) and Garrett Wilson (4.3). That works out to eight.4 fantasy PPG, and solely Johnston reached double digits. Downgrade McLaurin and the remainder of Washington’s large receivers in opposition to a protection that has allowed the fewest TDs (two), second-lowest yards per goal (6.4) and second-fewest fantasy factors to receivers.
Over/underneath: 44.2 (eighth highest)
Win likelihood: Broncos 69% (seventh highest)
Projected Rating: Patriots 30, Giants 22
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Stefon Diggs, Wan’Dale Robinson
Fantasy scoop: Tyrone Tracy Jr. is pink scorching, having produced 23 touches, 130-plus yards and 16-plus fantasy factors in consecutive video games. Regardless of persevering with to share the backfield with Devin Singletary, Tracy has benefited from a high-volume, run-heavy offense throughout Jameis Winston’s two begins. Jaxson Dart’s possible return figures to result in a extra balanced offense, nonetheless, and Tracy may have his palms full in opposition to a Patriots protection that has allowed the fewest yards and touchdowns (three) to working backs this season. After all, Tracy has come up massive in opposition to good Detroit and Inexperienced Bay defenses the previous two weeks, so he is effectively price contemplating on your RB2 or flex slot in Week 13.
Over/underneath: 51.9 (third highest)
Win likelihood: Patriots 76% (4th highest)