It is one of many questions I get requested most frequently in the course of the offseason.
“Who is that this yr’s model of [enter breakout player from last season]?”
It is not a easy query to reply as a result of no two situations are precisely alike. However there are clearly comparable gamers in comparable conditions. And, if the individuals need comparisons, comparisons they shall have!
The method right here was easy: I jotted down every of 2024’s prime breakout gamers and got here up with a brief record of gamers who match the same profile as they enter 2025. Under is evaluation of every participant who most closely fits the invoice, in addition to the opposite gamers who landed on the quick record.
Notice that this isn’t my means of definitively predicting that these gamers will escape this season. Once more, it is merely the gamers positioned to take action as a product of touchdown in a scenario just like those that exploded onto the fantasy scene final season.
This season’s Jayden Daniels/Bo Nix: Cameron Ward
Daniels and Nix have been fantasy starters as rookies.
Daniels and Nix did not enter their rookie season with particularly notable supporting casts, however that did not cease both from utilizing a mix of terrific passing and dashing manufacturing en path to a top-10 fantasy marketing campaign.
Equally, Ward — the No. 1 choose in April’s draft — does not have an particularly spectacular group round him. He’ll have to be the rising tide that lifts all boats (very attainable contemplating he tossed a class-high 39 TDs and posted a 88.7 QBR at Miami final season) whereas additionally contributing together with his legs. Ward actually will not be confused for an elite scrambler reminiscent of Daniels, however he averaged a ridiculous 9.1 yards per carry final season and will rival Nix’s 430 dashing yards as a rookie. If Ward proves the true deal, QB1 fantasy manufacturing is inside the vary of outcomes.
Different candidates: Jaxson Dart, Jalen Milroe, Tyler Shough
This season’s Baker Mayfield: Bryce Younger
Mayfield, the No. 1 choose in 2018, was nearing the bust label earlier than lastly breaking out together with his first QB1 season.
Mayfield was nowhere near the fantasy radar throughout his first six NFL seasons (18th or decrease in factors per recreation in all six), however he exploded to a fourth-place end in 2024. Younger is far youthful (coming into his third season), so whereas this may be a bit untimely, we did see some indicators of a possible breakout late in 2024. After struggling badly as a rookie and being benched early final season, Younger averaged 18.0 fantasy factors from Week 8 on, which might’ve ranked tenth over the complete season. One cause for the leap ahead was an enormous increase in dashing (208 yards and 5 TDs in his last eight video games), which was additionally one thing we noticed from Mayfield final season (profession excessive 378 yards and three TDs). With an upgraded supporting forged and Mayfield’s outdated coach (Dave Canales), Younger is properly positioned to make an enormous bounce.
Different candidates: Anthony Richardson Sr.
This season’s Sam Darnold: J.J. McCarthy
Darnold took benefit of an incredible supporting forged in Minnesota en path to a QB1 fantasy marketing campaign.
OK, this comp is sort of a layup, however hear me out. Darnold is out and McCarthy is in because the beginning quarterback for a Kevin O’Connell offense loaded with targets (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson) that helped Darnold and Kirk Cousins to top-12 fantasy campaigns (in factors per recreation) throughout every of O’Connell’s three seasons in Minnesota. McCarthy — the No. 10 choose within the 2024 draft — is an unknown after lacking his whole rookie marketing campaign due to a knee harm, nevertheless it’s not ridiculous to assume he’ll be a direct enchancment on Darnold, who had struggled (typically badly) throughout his first six NFL seasons previous to tossing 35 TDs in 2024.
This season’s Chase Brown: Isiah Pacheco
Brown was a veteran mid/late-round flier who emerged because the lead again in an excellent offense and, in flip, a fantasy RB1.
This one was more durable than anticipated, however primarily based on his crew, depth chart competitors and ADP, Pacheco looks like the perfect match. The fourth-year again has already been a fantasy-relevant participant (14.2 fantasy factors per recreation over a 32-game interval beginning halfway by way of his rookie season), however he missed Weeks 3-12 final season due to harm and was a nonfactor upon his return (8.8 touches per recreation and nil TDs). In fact, now that he is wholesome and nonetheless in his prime at age 26, a rebound could be very attainable, particularly in an excellent offense with Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell, Carson Steele and seventh-round rookie Brashard Smith his competitors for work. There’s sufficient upside right here to make Pacheco properly definitely worth the midround funding.
Different candidates: Javonte Williams, Jaylen Warren, J.Ok. Dobbins
This season’s Bucky Irving: TreVeyon Henderson/RJ Harvey
Irving was not an early-round fantasy choose, however he was the lone RB from the 2024 rookie class who emerged as a viable fantasy RB1.
Henderson and Harvey are being drafted a bit increased than Irving was in 2024 fantasy drafts, however the conditions are in any other case fairly darn comparable. Very similar to Irving, each are a bit undersized by NFL lead again requirements, which raises considerations about contact ceiling. Moreover, whereas Irving needed to overtake Rachaad White in Tampa Bay final season, Henderson (Rhamondre Stevenson) and Harvey (J.Ok. Dobbins) additionally face veteran competitors. Although it took a month to cement himself because the crew’s finest and most explosive again and regardless of enjoying in considerably of a committee all season lengthy, Irving was in a position to ship 10 top-20 fantasy outings in his last 12 video games. We very properly may see the same path from Henderson in New England and Harvey in Denver. Each have the talent set to ship as a rusher and receiver, so fringe RB1 manufacturing is actually a chance for each.
Different candidates: Kaleb Johnson, Quinshon Judkins (Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton are apparent breakout candidates at RB, however they are going a lot increased in drafts).
This season’s Tyrone Tracy Jr.: Bhayshul Tuten
Tracy was a Day 3 rookie who, after a sluggish begin, took his crew’s lead again position and emerged as a fantasy starter.
Tracy was a fifth-round flier in final yr’s draft and, after he performed a minimal position behind veteran Devin Singletary early on, he claimed lead again duties in Week 5 and by no means appeared again. Tuten was a fourth-round choose in April’s draft and, whereas he has extra competitors than Tracy, there is definitely a path to the highest of the depth chart. Travis Etienne Jr. is the Jaguars’ lead again, however he has struggled the previous two seasons and noticed an enormous dip in utilization in 2024 (189 touches after 325 in 2023). Tank Bigsby can be within the combine and confirmed properly as a rusher final season, however he’s a nonfactor as a receiver (eight profession receptions). All three backs determine to get some run, and it’s extremely attainable Tuten — who was extremely environment friendly at Virginia Tech and has terrific pace (4.32 40-yard sprint) and a three-down talent set — rapidly emerges as the perfect of the bunch. That is sufficient to make him an interesting late-round flier.
Different candidates: Jaydon Blue, Cam Skattebo
This season’s Malik Nabers/Brian Thomas Jr./Ladd McConkey: Tetairoa McMillan
Nabers, Thomas and McConkey have been fantasy lineup locks as rookies.
It is extraordinarily unlikely that we’ll see three rookies among the many prime 13 fantasy WRs once more this season, however we do have some candidates who may present huge 12 months 1 numbers. That record begins with McMillan, who will get the sting over Travis Hunter as a result of the latter’s offensive numbers might be diminished a bit by additionally enjoying protection. McMillan, in the meantime, ought to simply be capable of overtake the likes of Xavier Legette and 34-year-old Adam Thielen as aforementioned Bryce Younger’s prime goal. The 6-foot-4 receiver, who has drawn Drake London comps, dealt with a hefty 34% goal share at Arizona final season and has the profile of an elite NFL receiver. Nabers (35%), Thomas (25%) and McConkey (24%) all loved beneficiant goal shares throughout their spectacular rookie campaigns, and historical past suggests McMillan (the eighth choose) can be in that vary as properly. So long as Younger performs competent ball, the sky is the restrict for McMillan.
Different candidates: Hunter, Matthew Golden
This season’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Marvin Harrison Jr.
Smith-Njigba was a 2023 first-round NFL draft choose who loved a breakout second season.
12 months 1 expectations have been a lot increased for Harrison than they have been for Smith-Njigba, however the actuality is that each have been first-round NFL draft picks who underwhelmed statistically as rookies. JSN had an excellent excuse (he performed behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett), however he labored his means up the totem pole in 2024 and improved his receiving line from 63-628-4 to 100-1,178-6. Harrison, in the meantime, was his crew’s instant No. 1 receiver (No. 2 goal) and posted a 62-885-8 line. These two play totally different roles, however Harrison’s job as a fringe/downfield goal supplies him with an enormous fantasy ceiling. A lift in 12 months 2 goal share and a extra environment friendly reference to Kyler Murray may rapidly get the 2024 No. 4 choose into the elite dialog on the huge receiver place.
Different candidates: Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, Keon Coleman, Ricky Pearsall
This season’s Brock Bowers: Colston Loveland
Bowers was a uncommon tight finish lineup lock as a first-round rookie.
Keep in mind when rookie tight ends have been all however ineffective in fantasy? A lot for that. After Sam LaPorta was the place’s prime scorer as a rookie in 2023, Bowers completed the identical feat final season. That clearly does not imply we should always anticipate the identical from tenth choose Loveland or 14th choose Tyler Warren, nevertheless it actually suggests the sport has modified. Like Bowers, Loveland (and Warren for that matter) has the talent set to emerge as a fantasy star, and whereas main goal competitors is a possible detriment in Chicago, it’s extremely attainable he’ll be a featured goal in an offense that would make an enormous leap underneath Ben Johnson.
Different candidates: Warren