No. 1 Ohio State heads into Ann Arbor at 11-0 with the whole lot in entrance of them: a Massive Ten title spot, playoff seeding and even QB Julian Sayin’s Heisman hopes hanging within the stability.
No. 18 Michigan has received 4 straight and would love nothing greater than to play spoiler on an ideal season.
The actual hook on this matchup is much less Buckeyes versus Wolverines, and extra Buckeyes versus the boundaries of what Michigan can really dictate.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Michigan
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, FOX
Line: OSU; -9.5
Cash line: Ohio State (-425), Michigan (+320)
Over/Underneath: 44.5 (O -105, U -115)
Michigan: a very good staff with no sport state that really favors it
Michigan has one factor going for it: the run sport is actual. Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes have mixed for over 1,600 yards and 6.5 yards per carry, the road is bodily sufficient and when the sport sits on script, they’ll transfer our bodies. Downside is: Haynes is uncertain. It was already a run sport that may be neutralized. Much more now. We have already seen it. Oklahoma compressed the Wolverines, and USC hit gaps with velocity. When Michigan loses the leverage battle early, the whole playbook shrinks. Michigan’s run sport cannot create explosives by itself as a result of it depends on the bigger ecosystem working.
Defensively, Michigan is sweet, nevertheless it’s not particular. It does not have that overwhelming unit that suffocates groups on each down. The Wolverines stress quarterbacks, nevertheless it’s extra about quantity stress than worth. They hit, pressure QBs to rush, however do not persistently convert these pressures into game-breaking moments. Their protection is the softest a part of the construction, and the improper opponent, one with actual passing effectivity, can stress them till one thing breaks (as witnessed vs. USC, when the Wolverines gave up 8.3 yards per cross, 2 yards above their common allowed).
And this results in Michigan’s two issues that may’t be mounted in time to face the Buckeyes. For one, the Wolverines cannot play from behind. Secondly, they do not have a single signature win that proves in any other case. Two losses towards the Sooners and Trojans, zero factors scored within the opening quarter, seven factors mixed within the first half.
When the sport tilts away from their most popular script, issues turn out to be tougher: protections, reads, spacing, explosives and purple zone ending. There isn’t any knowledge level exhibiting that Michigan can survive a scoring race.
So the actual query turns into: What sport state offers Michigan any edge? Reply: None that Ohio State does not already management higher.
Realistically, the one method Michigan wins is that if it dominates early downs and finishes drives, whereas additionally forcing Ohio State right into a turnover-heavy, time-of-possession catastrophe. Even then, the Wolverines should hope the Buckeyes’ receiver group, led by arguably the nation’s finest participant in Jeremiah Smith, fails to take advantage of Michigan’s protection protection.
The premise is easy: Some groups are constructed to win and a few groups are constructed to bury inferior opponents.
Ohio State falls into the second class. Every part about their profile says they suffocate opponents.
It begins with the purple zone protection. They’ve allowed simply 19 whole opponent journeys, and solely seven touchdowns, in 12 video games. That quantity alone swings sport scripts. Michigan wants drives to finish in touchdowns simply to maintain tempo. The run protection and tackling inform the identical story. Ohio State is sixth in run-defense grade and seventh in tackling, which is precisely what you need when dealing with a Michigan offense that wants 4-yard stability to perform.
Each stat widens the mismatch. Factors per play, yards per play, passing success, drive effectivity, EPA — Ohio State clears Michigan in each high-leverage class.
The half I maintain coming again to is what number of methods Ohio State can cowl 9.5. The Buckeyes can win by means of passing explosives to Smith and Carnell Tate (each anticipated again from damage), purple zone match, defensive stops, early-down effectivity or just forcing Michigan to play from behind and throw.
Ohio State is elite relative to Michigan, and that is sufficient to cowl this quantity.
Betting developments
Michigan has coated in 4 straight video games versus Ohio State (all outright wins, three of which because the underdog); it is tied for the longest streak within the sequence by both staff because the FBS/FCS break up (Ohio State coated 4 straight from 1986-89).
Ohio State is 8-1 ATS towards ranked groups because the begin of final season, which is third finest within the FBS (minimal 5 video games) behind Arizona State (7-0) and Boston Faculty (6-0).
The over has hit in seven straight conferences on this sequence performed at Michigan (courting again to 2011).
Michigan is 0-3 ATS since 2019 as a house underdog of 7-plus factors (minus-29.3 PPG differential).
Ohio State is 10-3 ATS in November or later because the begin of final season, second finest amongst Energy 4 groups (Arizona State, 9-1).