EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — There is a lot at stake on Sunday for two 2-13 teams when the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders meet at Allegiant Stadium (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS). Namely, the pole position for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft.
The Giants and Raiders currently have a 37.6% and 36.2% chance, respectively, to land the coveted top pick, according to ESPN Analytics. The Giants would be comfortably in the driver’s seat heading into Week 18’s matchup with Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys if they lose in Las Vegas. Ditto the Raiders with the Kansas City Chiefs on the horizon for their finale.
New York’s odds jump to 73% to get the top pick with a loss to the Raiders. They fall to 6% with a win. Conversely, the Raiders jump to 69% with a loss and less than 1% with a win.
This is all possible because the Giants and Raiders come in on nine-game losing streaks. It’s the first time in NFL history that two teams with at least nine-game skids during a single season meet, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
But clearly a lot is at stake for both teams aside from ending their losing streaks, even if those involved don’t want to look at it that way.
“I mean, I really don’t think we talk about that part too much about the draft positioning and wanting a certain pick or anything like that,” Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson said. “I think we just want to go out there and play our best football and go out there and get a win.”
For the Giants, a win could mean preventing them from getting a significant haul in a trade for the top pick, presumably from a team that desperately needs a quarterback. Or they could just stay at No. 1 and select a top-rated player without any hesitation or obstruction.
For the Raiders, a loss could mean having their choice at the top quarterback in this year’s draft, whomever they decide that might be — likely Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza or Oregon’s Dante Moore, should he declare for the draft. That could prove valuable with 35-year-old starter (and former Giant) Geno Smith.
Either way, it’s not hard to see why this game between two struggling teams is so valuable. So while the loser can technically be the winner, it’s not something that Giants interim coach Mike Kafka has even mentioned to his team this week.
“I haven’t talked about it with the players. The players want to win. The coaching staff wants to win this week,” Kafka said. “Like, this is our only focus is this week. And so, all our messaging, all that we’re talking about is how we can get better, number one, as a team, and then what we have to do today to go out there to Vegas and beat the Raiders.”
Tell that to each team’s fan base. The focus publicly is primarily on what this game means in terms of draft positioning.
The Giants ruled out left tackle Andrew Thomas on Friday with a hamstring injury and center John Michael Schmitz Jr. is doubtful with a finger problem that inhibits his ability to snap.
Las Vegas placed tight end Brock Bowers and safety Jeremy Chinn on injured reserve earlier this week. Bowers has been dealing with a knee injury for a good chunk of this season but finished Sunday’s loss to the Houston Texans. Chinn also landed on IR after playing all 61 defensive snaps against the Houston Texans.
But don’t tell Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby about positioning for any draft pick.
“Yeah, I don’t give a s— about the pick, to be honest. I don’t play for that. That’s not my job,” Crosby said after the 23-21 loss to the Texans. “My job is to be the best defensive end in the world. That’s what I focus on every day. And being a great leader, being an influence, being that guy on a consistent basis for my team.
“That’s their job, the front office, the coaches. They do that. But that has nothing to do with me. I’ve learned that lesson in the past. I’m not trying to … you can’t control everything. That’s not my job description. My job is to be the best in the world at what I do. That is wrecking the game.”
The Raiders ultimately shut down Crosby, much to his chagrin. He was ruled out for Sunday because of a lingering knee problem that he wanted to play through.
Worrying about the draft is not Crosby’s responsibility, yet it can also be fruitless.
The Giants played against Washington late in the 2019 season in what has famously been dubbed “The Chase Young Bowl.” The loser of that game was supposed to have the prime position to draft former Ohio State standout Chase Young.
New York won behind five touchdown passes by Daniel Jones. The Commanders ended up taking Young second overall in that 2020 draft. The Giants, perhaps fortuitously, ended up with standout left tackle Andrew Thomas.
Unfortunately New York has been in this situation often in recent years. The Giants won in Week 17 last year against the Colts to take them out of the running for the No. 1 overall pick. The Tennessee Titans ultimately selected quarterback Cam Ward with the top pick while the Giants took edge rusher Abdul Carter third overall and had to trade back into the bottom half of the first round for quarterback Jaxson Dart.
The Giants also won three straight games late in the 2023 season with Tommy DeVito at quarterback to take them out of the running for quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. They were selected by Chicago, Washington and New England, respectively, while New York remained at No. 6 and landed star wide receiver Malik Nabers.
The Giants haven’t made the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft since taking running back Tucker Frederickson out of Auburn in 1965.