No division winners will probably be topped this week within the NFL, however three video games Sunday may go a good distance towards deciding who wins the NFC North and a pair of divisions within the AFC.
The three Week 14 first-place showdowns are the Chicago Bears (9-3) at Inexperienced Bay Packers (8-3-1) within the NFC North, Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) within the AFC South and Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6) within the AFC North.
How important are these divisional video games? Since 2002, of the 159 groups that had been main their division by Week 14, when the NFL went to eight divisions, 139 of them gained their division. That is 87.4%.
It is also value noting that every one three of those video games could have rematches within the coming weeks. The Packers and Bears have their second assembly inside a three-game span in Week 16. The Jaguars and Colts play once more in Week 17, and the Ravens face the Steelers within the regular-season finale.
Our NFL Nation reporters break down what it’s worthwhile to know forward of this weekend’s division clashes.
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AFC North: Steelers at Ravens (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
General file: 6-6
Division file: 2-1
AFC North place: Tied for first place with Ravens
Odds: Win division (+285), make playoffs (+260)
FPI with win: Win division (63%), make playoffs (64%)
FPI with loss: Win division (17%), make playoffs (17%)
How did the Steelers get right here? Because of a scorching begin and accidents for the remainder of the AFC North groups, the Steelers gave the impression to be operating away with the division, holding a 2½-game lead going into the Thursday night time recreation in opposition to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 7. However Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Flacco picked aside the Steelers’ protection and handed Pittsburgh a loss, kicking off a stretch throughout which the Steelers have misplaced 5 of their previous seven video games. In that span, the Steelers’ protection has allowed a median of 122.7 dashing yards per recreation, whereas the offense has struggled to maneuver the ball persistently with Mason Rudolph or Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
QB scenario: Rodgers fractured his left (non-throwing) wrist late within the first half throughout the rematch with the Bengals three weeks in the past and was sidelined for the following six quarters. Rudolph took his place within the second half and began in opposition to the Chicago Bears. Throughout that stretch, Rudolph accomplished 36 of 47 makes an attempt for 298 yards with 1 landing, 2 interceptions and a misplaced fumble. Rodgers, in the meantime, began struggling even earlier than his wrist damage, starting with a dismal night time within the loss to the Chargers on Nov. 9, when he accomplished 51% of his makes an attempt and took a sack for a security. Coming off one other subpar outing in opposition to the Payments on Nov. 30, when he accomplished simply 47% of his makes an attempt and break up the bridge of his nostril on a strip-sack, Rodgers is in line to start out his second straight recreation with the fractured wrist Sunday.
Harm replace: Not solely have the Steelers been managing Rodgers’ wrist damage, however in addition they enter Sunday’s recreation with out rookie first-round choose Derrick Harmon. Harmon is lacking his second consecutive recreation due to a knee damage sustained in Chicago. The Steelers’ protection has handled accidents all through the season, together with a season-ending hyperextended knee to security DeShon Elliott and ACL tears to veteran depth defensive linemen Dean Lowry and Daniel Ekuale.
Key to successful Sunday: All of it comes all the way down to stopping the run. The Steelers did not do this of their wild-card loss to the Ravens final season, permitting Baltimore to hurry for 299 yards as Derrick Henry exploded for 186. The Steelers’ run protection has been inconsistent this season, giving up a season-worst 249 dashing yards to the Buffalo Payments in its final recreation. However there’s some motive for hope: Earlier this season, the Steelers’ run protection held Jonathan Taylor, the NFL’s main rusher, to 45 yards on 14 carries within the win in opposition to the Colts. — Brooke Pryor
What they’re saying: Cameron Heyward on the late-season grind and what the staff has left within the tank: “Quite a bit left within the tank. You signal as much as play soccer. You do not signal as much as depend heartbeats. We bought to do no matter it takes to get the job performed. You have seen groups, you have a look at that Tremendous Bowl [the Steelers won at the end of the 2005 season, beating Seattle], they needed to have a string of video games late to essentially qualify for the playoffs. So, one, you bought to get off the sphere when you possibly can, however two, no matter is available in entrance of you, you bought to exit and assault it.”
General file: 6-6
Division file: 2-1
AFC North place: Tied for first place with the Ravens
Odds: Win division (-240), make playoffs (-220)
FPI with win: Win division (75%), make playoffs (75%)
FPI with loss: Win division (31%), make playoffs (31%)
How did the Ravens get right here? The preseason betting favourite to win the Tremendous Bowl, the Ravens have but to provide one full recreation this season wherein each unit was clicking. The Baltimore protection struggled mightily throughout a franchise-worst 1-5 begin, giving up an NFL-high 32.3 factors per recreation. When the Ravens rebounded to win 5 of their subsequent six video games, their offense sputtered repeatedly on third down (34.7%) and within the pink zone (48%), each of which rank within the backside quarter of the league. With recreation changers similar to quarterback Lamar Jackson and do-it-all security Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens’ gamers stated this week that they really feel there’s nonetheless time for this staff to hit its stride and stay as much as its championship potential.
QB scenario: Lamar Jackson hasn’t appeared like Lamar Jackson. After throwing 15 landing passes and one interception in his first six begins, Jackson has hit the worst stoop of his profession, producing zero touchdowns in three straight video games. Accidents and indecision have led to the two-time NFL MVP placing up some uncharacteristic numbers. He hasn’t accomplished greater than 60% of his passes in 4 consecutive video games for the primary time in his eight-year profession, and he is averaging a career-low 29.3 yards dashing per recreation. The Ravens want Jackson to flip into MVP mode in the event that they need to win a 3rd straight AFC North title.
Harm replace: Jackson is coping with an ankle damage after getting stepped on throughout Wednesday’s apply, however he’s set to start out Sunday. This marked the fourth straight week that Jackson has missed a apply due to an damage. He has had accidents to his knee, ankle and toe over this span. The one different damage concern was high cornerback Nate Wiggins, who missed the second half of Baltimore’s final recreation due to a foot damage. However Wiggins practiced all week and can play in opposition to Pittsburgh, based on coach John Harbaugh.
Key to successful Sunday: Ball safety. Jackson and the Ravens cannot afford to provide away one other division recreation, as they did in a 32-14 loss to the Bengals on Thanksgiving night time, after they turned the ball over 5 instances. That is a robust lesson going into Sunday’s recreation in opposition to Pittsburgh as a result of errors have outlined Baltimore’s success in opposition to its largest rival. Since 2022, the Ravens are 3-1 in opposition to the Steelers, together with the playoffs, after they turned the ball over not more than as soon as. Over that very same span, Baltimore is 0-3 in opposition to Pittsburgh when it has dedicated a number of turnovers. — Jamison Hensley
What they’re saying: “If you cannot rise up for this one, I feel that exhibits one thing about your character [and] about your will. And actually, I feel that simply exhibits if you’re a Raven or in case you’re not a Raven. They are saying that there isn’t any must-win recreation, however that is undoubtedly a must-win recreation,” cornerback Marlon Humphrey stated.
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AFC South: Colts at Jaguars (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
General file: 8-4
Division file: 2-1
AFC South place: Tied for first with Jaguars
Odds: Win division (+145), make playoffs (-310)
FPI with win: Win division (61%), make playoffs (88%)
FPI with loss: Win division (19%), make playoffs (57%)
How did the Colts get right here? Indianapolis bought off to a scorching begin, with a league-best 7-1 file by eight video games. The Cots’ offense was on a historic tempo, main the league in a number of classes. Even after consecutive subpar performances, the Colts stay the league’s top-scoring staff. Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL with 1,282 dashing yards and 15 dashing touchdowns, although he has been quiet the previous two video games. Taylor’s 244-yard efficiency in opposition to the Atlanta Falcons final month was the largest single-game dashing effort this season. Likewise, his 83-yard landing in that recreation was the longest run of 2025.
QB scenario: The Colts consider they’ve discovered a possible long-term resolution in Daniel Jones after years of flailing at quarterback. Jones, who signed a one-year free agent deal in March, gained an offseason place battle with Anthony Richardson Sr. for the job and helped energy Indianapolis’ historic offensive begin to the season. However the Colts will want Jones to return by when it issues most. They’ve 5 video games remaining, all in opposition to groups with successful data. Whether or not Jones comes by will set the tone for offseason selections relating to his future.
Harm replace: Jones might want to carry out properly regardless of a small fracture in his left fibula. The problem was found two weeks in the past and, within the two video games since, Jones has posted his lowest passing yards and completion charges of the season. He has persistently stated the situation is enhancing. In the meantime, the Colts are nonetheless with out standout defensive sort out DeForest Buckner (neck), who is not eligible to return from injured reserve till subsequent week. They’re additionally prone to be with out new cornerback Sauce Gardner, who sustained a calf damage Sunday and will miss a number of video games.
Key to successful Sunday: The Colts need to regain the higher hand on offense by being extra constant on early downs and, thereby, holding Taylor concerned. Indianapolis was 3-of-10 on third downs in its loss to the Texans on Sunday, partly due to lengthy down-and-distance conditions. Of these 10 third downs, seven had been third-and-7 or longer. Staying “on schedule” on offense with higher manufacturing on first downs has been a key for the Colts all season. However they’ve dropped from 7.2 yards per play on first downs to six yards per play previously two video games. — Stephen Holder
What they’re saying: “We’re taking part in actually good groups now. So, we have to be extra on level with a few of these issues than possibly we did earlier within the season. We have got a tough stretch developing. We bought a giant recreation this weekend, so excellent time to get again on monitor,” Josh Downs stated.
General file: 8-4
Division file: 32-1
AFC South place: Tied for first with Colts
Odds: Win division (+145), make playoffs (-550)
FPI with win: Win division (64%), make playoffs (96%)
FPI with loss: Win division (19%), make playoffs (75%)
How did the Jaguars get right here? They’ve gained 4 of their previous 5 video games regardless of a slew of accidents that led to 10 starters lacking video games over that stretch: WR/CB Travis Hunter (knee, performed for season), DE Travon Walker (knee), CB Jourdan Lewis (neck), S Eric Murray (neck), RG Patrick Mekari (concussion), LG Ezra Cleveland (knee), WR Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle), TE Brenton Unusual (hip), DT Arik Armstead (hand), and LB Devin Lloyd (calf). Their depth has held up, although, and so they gained two OT video games on the street by making performs late. The one fixed has been RB Travis Etienne Jr. and the run recreation.
QB scenario: Trevor Lawrence has been up and down all season, as evidenced by his previous two video games: 4 turnovers in opposition to Arizona, adopted by none and his highest passer score (111.5) of the season in opposition to Tennessee. Nonetheless, that is partly resulting from coach Liam Coen encouraging Lawrence to “let it rip.” The addition of Jakobi Meyers on the commerce deadline has given Lawrence a sure-handed receiver and he has turn out to be the receiver Lawrence trusts essentially the most in simply 4 video games (18 catches on 21 targets).
Harm replace: Lewis (their high cornerback), Lloyd, Cleveland, Thomas and Unusual are again, and Murray is prone to return Sunday. WR Parker Washington (hip) and LT Walker Little (concussion) had been damage final week and their availability is doubtful. Walker hasn’t practiced since getting damage Nov. 16, so he may not play, both. Armstead is a query, too. These final two are a number of the Jaguars’ higher go rushers, but in addition important gamers on the run protection tasked with limiting Taylor.
Key to successful Sunday: It begins with holding Taylor in verify. The Colts are 3-4 in video games wherein Taylor has rushed for fewer than 100 yards, together with the previous two (losses to Kansas Metropolis and Houston). Surprisingly, Taylor has not had a lot success in Jacksonville. In 4 video games at EverBank Stadium, he has did not rush for greater than 77 yards, and the Colts — who have not gained in Jacksonville since 2014 — are 0-4 in these video games. — Michael DiRocco
What they’re saying: “We come again, we put together the identical means that we at all times have, particularly this final couple of weeks, maintain our focus internally, go on the market and play our model soccer, we’ll win this recreation,” defensive finish Josh Hines-Allen stated.
Chicago Bears
General file: 9-3
Division file: 1-2
NFC North place: First
Odds: Win division (+175), make playoffs (-270)
FPI with win: Win division (59%), make playoffs (92%)
FPI with loss: Win division (20%), make playoffs (67%)
How did the Bears get right here? The Bears have gained 5 straight, together with a defining 24-15 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Black Friday that legitimized their résumé. Chicago is constructed on the NFL’s No. 2 dashing offense (153.8 yards/recreation), an opportunistic protection that leads the league in takeaways (26) and turnover margin (plus-17, no different staff is best than plus-9). Caleb Williams’ development underneath coach Ben Johnson was clear as Williams led 5 game-winning drives within the fourth quarter/extra time. It is a important a part of why the Bears have pulled off a number of late-game rallies to boast a 6-1 file in one-score video games.
QB scenario: Johnson clarified his feedback concerning the Bears “successful regardless of our passing recreation, not due to it,” so it would not be construed that he is sad with Williams’ play. Johnson was happy with how Williams managed the sport in opposition to Philadelphia, however the quarterback’s accuracy points are regarding. Williams is final in completion proportion (58%) and completion proportion over expectation (-9%), and his 5 interceptions have come in opposition to zone protection. The Packers’ protection has run zone on 69% of opponents’ dropbacks this season (third highest in NFL).
Harm replace: The Bears’ protection will get a much-needed increase at linebacker. T.J. Edwards was again at apply this week for the primary time since breaking his hand in opposition to the Bengals on Nov. 2 and doesn’t carry an damage designation for the Packers recreation. The Bears may also have linebacker Noah Sewell again within the fold, which can go a good distance towards how the Bears can scheme in opposition to Josh Jacobs and the Packers’ run recreation. Huge receiver Rome Odunze will miss the primary recreation of his NFL profession due to a foot damage that he is been coping with all through the season.
Key to successful Sunday: Chicago’s run recreation has been at its greatest on the street, with season highs in dashing at Cincinnati and Philadelphia. After twin 100-yard dashing performances from Monangai and D’Andre Swift, the Bears ought to lean closely on their floor assault to set the tone and management the clock the way in which they did in opposition to the Eagles. With accidents alongside Inexperienced Bay’s defensive position, notably to sort out Devonte Wyatt, the Bears’ offensive line involves Lambeau Area with the sting up entrance. — Courtney Cronin
What they’re saying: “The importance of it in the meanwhile is not a lot,” tight finish Cole Kmet stated of the Bears at present being the NFC’s No. 1 seed. “Look, I understand how this all is. We’re on the so-called mountain high proper now, however these issues change shortly week to week. … It is on us to stay to our course of on stuff. However to see the place we have gone as a staff, particularly offensively from Weeks 1 and a couple of to now, it is actually cool to see and see our identification take form, particularly within the run recreation.”
General file: 8-3-1
Division file: 3-0
NFC North place: Second
Odds: Win division (-140), make playoffs (-900)
FPI with win: Win division (70%), make playoffs (95%)
FPI with loss: Win division (25%), make playoffs (76%)
How did the Packers get right here? Not like final season, after they went 1-5 in NFC North video games — with the one win approaching a last-second blocked area purpose try in Chicago — the Packers have taken care of enterprise within the division. The Thanksgiving win at Detroit gave them the season sweep of the Lions for the primary time since 2020. That is the top of a three-game stretch of all division video games, which began with the Week 12 win over the Vikings. After consecutive house losses to the Panthers and Eagles wherein they mixed to attain solely 20 factors, Packers coach Matt LaFleur discovered one thing on offense. Within the three video games since these two losses, they’ve the fourth-most offensive factors per recreation within the league.
QB scenario: That is Jordan Love’s time of the yr, and his four-touchdown recreation in opposition to the Lions final week may be the beginning of one other robust stretch to shut the season. In his three seasons because the Packers’ starter, Love has performed a few of his greatest soccer when the calendar turns to November. In 24 profession regular-season video games in November or later, Love has mixed for 37 touchdowns and 6 interceptions whereas finishing 65.8% of his passes. Love has the NFL’s highest Whole QBR (73.3) in video games performed in November or later over the previous three seasons.
Harm replace: The Packers have misplaced three starters to season-ending accidents: tight finish Tucker Kraft (knee), heart Elgton Jenkins (leg) and, most lately, defensive sort out Devonte Wyatt (ankle). They might get a lift from the return of receiver Jayden Reed, their chief previously two seasons in catches and receiving yards. Reed hasn’t performed since Week 2 due to collarbone and foot accidents.
Key to successful Sunday: The Packers have a top-10 run protection, however it is going to be examined mightily by the Bears’ operating again duo of Monangai and Swift, who every rushed for greater than 100 yards in final week’s win over the Eagles. Wyatt’s damage in opposition to the Lions will not assist, however the Packers must maintain the Bears from operating throughout them. “It is going to be a fantastic problem,” LaFleur stated, “as a result of they’re the most effective within the league proper now in doing it.” — Rob Demovsky
What they’re saying: Packers WR Christian Watson on the magnitude of the Packers-Bears recreation: “It is big, it is big. I stated it earlier within the week, it is an opportunity for us to take the highest spot within the NFC North, and that is the first step for us when it comes to our purpose for this season. So it is big-time for us.”
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