After the arduous, methodical means of constructing their roster, the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder lastly broke by means of final season and received their first NBA championship since shifting from Seattle in 2008. Though OKC was by no means really an underdog, having entered the 2024-25 marketing campaign with the second-best title odds at +675, it is a totally different story heading into the 2025-26 season.
This yr, the Thunder are +200 to win the NBA Finals, far outpacing the Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets in second place at +650, based on ESPN BET odds. Oklahoma Metropolis is the favourite throughout the sportsbook market, however particular odds fluctuate, getting so long as +250.
Both approach, it is among the many shortest odds for a preseason title favourite previously decade. Since 2014, discounting an unprecedented run that noticed the Golden State Warriors as odds-on preseason favorites for 3 seasons from 2016 by means of 2018, solely the 2021-22 Brooklyn Nets (+240) had comparable odds to these of the Thunder this season, per knowledge from SportsOddsHistory.com.
The optimism round OKC facilities not solely on its deep, proficient roster remaining nearly fully collectively, but additionally that many of the gamers are nonetheless younger and have room to progress.
“The Thunder had their breakthrough to win a championship initially of their window and are usually not laden with veterans or gamers in contract years,” ESPN BET senior director Adrian Horton mentioned over electronic mail. “Provided that, there’s a affordable expectation that they will proceed to enhance year-over-year and construct round an intact group of stars that are not getting old out or hitting free company anytime quickly.”
That mentioned, not each bookmaker is as excessive on the Thunder. Caesars Sportsbook lead professional basketball dealer David Lieberman is among the many bookmakers barely lengthening Oklahoma Metropolis, citing a powerful Western Convention posing obstacles for the reigning champions.
“I believe for as dominant and as prohibitive favorites as they have been all through the season, it was a little bit stunning to see them not dominate or wrestle a number of instances within the playoffs,” Lieberman advised ESPN. “So I believe whereas they need to be clearly the favorites once more they usually might enhance with the younger core that they’ve, I believe there’s a number of groups within the West that improved as effectively.”
The largest challengers within the minds of bettors and bookmakers alike are the Denver Nuggets, who’re aiming to win a second title with perennial MVP candidate Nikola Jokic. Denver is essentially the most backed group by tickets at BetMGM and by deal with at ESPN BET, attracting practically half of all cash on the latter. DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello additionally notes that the Nuggets have taken “among the most cash” among the many groups within the favorites tier.
Per typical, the ever-popular Los Angeles Lakers (+1500) are a top-three group by ticket quantity on the main books, with added pleasure this season for Luka Doncic’s first full marketing campaign with the group. Different high title sights from the West embrace the Houston Rockets (+1400), Golden State Warriors (+2200) and Dallas Mavericks (+3300).
Lieberman emphasizes that the longer traces for a few of these groups are a results of the brawl that’s certain to ensue within the West aspect of the playoff bracket.
“The percentages sort of mirror the truth that it is more durable to make it to the Finals within the West, however the group that will get there most likely shall be a reasonably sizable favourite over whoever makes it from the East.”
East is least
The West being stronger than the East is not precisely a brand new narrative within the NBA, however the chasm between the 2 conferences may very well be much more pronounced for 2025-26. Solely three of the highest 10 favorites — the Cavaliers (+650), New York Knicks (+1000) and Orlando Magic (+1800) — for this season’s title come from the Japanese Convention.
ESPN BET’s Horton says that the Boston Celtics, who have been title favorites coming into final season, have been “overwhelming favorites” to win the East in earlier seasons “as a result of they weren’t actually going to be challenged till the convention finals.” This season, as Jayson Tatum continues to recuperate from a torn Achilles and the group undergoes a smooth rebuild, the Celtics are +3000 for the title, based on ESPN BET odds.
Add in a serious damage to Tyrese Haliburton hampering the defending convention champion Indiana Pacers (+8000) and an absence of religion within the beforehand dependable Philadelphia 76ers (+3300), and there out of the blue is not a readily viable candidate to win the title for the East within the eyes of oddsmakers.
“Virtually any East group might be going to be a fairly large lengthy shot towards whoever comes out of the West,” Lieberman mentioned. “Simply on paper, I believe there’s 5, six groups out West who could be favored over the most effective group within the East in a Finals collection. And that sort of reveals itself within the futures market.”
Bettors typically agree with the books on this sentiment. At ESPN BET, the Cavs and Knicks, the 2 most-backed East groups, have simply the seventh- and eighth-most deal with, respectively, to win the title. DraftKings’ Avello notes some long-shot motion on the 76ers and Toronto Raptors (150-1), however in any other case notes extra overwhelming title consideration on the West.
Caesars’ Lieberman means that bettors might as a substitute search for a protracted shot to win the convention, like Indiana did final season. This season, that may very well be the Detroit Pistons (+1100 for the East), who’ve essentially the most bets at BetMGM and the second-most deal with at ESPN BET.
However the overwhelming feeling is that the West will possible be the convention favored to win all of it once more. ESPN BET has a particular market on which convention will win the championship, and the West is -250 to the East’s +210.
Planting the Flagg
The NBA has had many impactful rookies enter the league in current seasons, however by the chances, the expectations won’t be any larger than they’re for Dallas’ Cooper Flagg.
The 2025 high draft decide is the consensus odds-on favourite to win Rookie of the 12 months this season, sporting -225 odds at ESPN BET. Though the chances fluctuate throughout {the marketplace} to some extent, Flagg may very well be the shortest preseason ROY favourite since at the very least 2006, per knowledge from SportsOddsHistory.com. Victor Wembanyama was -145 in 2023-24 and Kevin Durant was -200 in 2007-08 earlier than every finally received the award.
“These awards are pushed by narrative as a lot as they’re stats, and the expectation is that Flagg can have loads of each. Flagg is already thought to be a star popping out of Duke and is actually one of many largest tales coming into this season,” Horton mentioned. “Add in his anticipated position on a playoff-caliber group, and he is the clear favourite for the award till we begin to see in any other case.”
“It is sort of uncommon for a primary total, generational expertise to land in such a constructive spot like a great group; you’ll be able to simply type of step in and never have an excessive amount of strain to be the man instantly,” Lieberman mentioned. “I believe that is, to me, the distinction between this example and most No. 1 total picks that usually go to groups which can be simply terrible.”
ESPN BET has a Cooper Flagg vs. The Area market, and the latter is +185. The one potential challengers who’ve emerged are the Utah Jazz’s Ace Bailey and the Washington Wizard’s Tre Johnson, whose odds fluctuate throughout the key sportsbooks, however get right down to solely +750 at both of their shortest.
Though Bailey has garnered a strong variety of tickets at each BetMGM and ESPN BET, bookmakers notice that they’re having to maintain Flagg quick with the intention to stymie the sturdy motion nonetheless coming in on him.
“What are you able to do? You simply put up the chances they usually guess,” Avello mentioned. “So far as the bettors are involved, there’s Cooper Flagg and no person else. We’ll see if that holds up there in the midst of the yr, however that is what we’re seeing proper now. He is the darling this yr within the league.”
Elevate the Cup
In response to operators, basketball is the second-most fashionable sport at American sportsbooks behind the behemoth that’s soccer, and the 2 sports activities go head-to-head for the primary a part of the NBA’s season. Though meaning basketball betting does not typically decide up till after the Tremendous Bowl — Horton factors out that the tip of soccer roughly coincides with the NBA’s commerce deadline and All-Star break — the Affiliation has been capable of entice a good quantity of deal with early on in current seasons, specifically because of the implementation of the NBA Cup.
“We noticed an uptick in bets on these video games,” Lieberman mentioned. “There was some real pleasure; the video games are usually fairly enjoyable to look at and excessive scoring. I believe it was a pleasant concept by the NBA to sort of break up that early-season slog.”
He additionally famous that the NBA typically sees a surge in betting when the season first begins and that it holds the benefit over the NFL of staging prime-time video games all through the week. Premier late-day matchups, significantly involving West groups, do fairly effectively for bettor recognition, per bookmakers.
Usually, the league will look to construct on the momentum it has constructed up, whatever the time of yr.
“That is only a actually fashionable betting entity for us, and we have loads of totally different markets up on it,” Avello mentioned. “We’re anticipating one other massive yr of NBA, as a result of NBA hasn’t slowed down since we began.”