Though the NBA’s 2025-26 Japanese Convention race seems to be large open on account of a rash of star accidents, the West image takes on a distinct tone. There, a mass of hopeful contenders should chase down the champion Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, who gained the West by a document 16 video games final season and have a sustainable roster constructed to repeat.
However which rivals have one of the best probability to catch Oklahoma Metropolis? Which veteran-laden groups hope to remain sufficiently spry for an additional deep playoff run? And which younger groups may rise quickly up the standings?
To take a broad overview and analyze the preliminary state of the 2025-26 Western Convention subject, we have sorted all 15 groups into 5 tiers. Tomorrow, we’ll undergo the same train with the East, however for now, let’s keep out West, beginning with the apparent favourite with a terrific probability at making historical past.
Tier 1: The clear-cut favourite
Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder
Outdoors of rostering 2024 first-round decide Nikola Matter, the Thunder have not added any new gamers through commerce or free company — however why would they should? The defending champs already had the league’s deepest rotation. And they’ll presumably solely get higher in 2025-26, as 31-year-old Alex Caruso and 30-year-old Kenrich Williams are the one gamers older than 27, and Chet Holmgren performed simply 32 video games final season due to harm.
Higher than successful the title after a 68-win common season and one of the best level differential in NBA historical past? Sure, it is not solely attainable however lifelike. As they try to develop into the primary back-to-back champions for the reason that Durant-era Warriors, which might snap a record-long streak and not using a repeat winner, the Thunder are in a category of their very own.
Tier 2: Able to deny a repeat champ
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have been one thing of a paper tiger in 2024-25: They earned the No. 2 seed within the West with a tireless regular-season effort, however they did not have the star energy essential to do harm within the postseason, resulting in a first-round exit towards the Golden State Warriors. However after buying and selling for Kevin Durant and signing Dorian Finney-Smith, with Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Reed Sheppard set to tackle greater roles, the Rockets have a whole staff with the requisite depth and star energy to threaten the Thunder.
Houston nonetheless would not have as a lot top-end expertise because the champs, however it additionally would not have any actual weaknesses. Do not be stunned if the Rockets land the No. 2 seed once more however look extra playoff-ready whereas doing so. This tiger seems to be actual.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets’ normal construction stays the identical because it has for years: Nikola Jokic leads the best way, with Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon offering assist. However there have additionally been loads of latest modifications in Denver: There is a new coach, a brand new entrance workplace and a newly competent bench, after Denver added Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr. and — if he would not return to Europe as an alternative — Jonas Valanciunas. Cameron Johnson additionally takes Michael Porter Jr.’s place because the knockdown shooter within the beginning lineup after switching groups this offseason.
If not for an sudden barrage of Luguentz Dort 3-pointers, the Nuggets very nicely may have upset the Thunder within the second spherical this spring. They’ve since reloaded for an additional probability subsequent season.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards’ continued ascent would be the principal issue figuring out whether or not Minnesota can return to the convention finals for the third straight season, and ideally enhance upon the previous two journeys by advancing to the Finals this time. However a lot additionally rests on the Timberwolves’ guard play past Edwards. With Nickeil Alexander-Walker gone to Atlanta, the remainder of Minnesota’s backcourt rotation contains Mike Conley, who will have a good time his thirty eighth birthday earlier than the season begins; the streaky Donte DiVincenzo; and rising sophomores Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. The duo mixed to common simply 8.8 factors in 81 video games throughout their rookie seasons collectively.
There’s promise right here but additionally potential peril. The Timberwolves tried to carry their floor within the offseason by re-signing Julius Randle and Naz Reid, however it’s exhausting to argue they improved. In the meantime, the opposite groups on this tier made unimpeachable upgrades of their quest to catch the Thunder, and may need handed Minnesota within the course of.
Tier 3: The outdated guard
LA Clippers
The Clippers ought to arguably place one tier increased on this rating. Kawhi Leonard performed his first sport final season on Jan. 4, and from then on, the Clippers ranked second within the West with a plus-7.2 internet score. They even outscored Denver in a seven-game collection loss within the first spherical, however two two-point losses, in addition to a lackluster displaying in Sport 7, doomed the sleeper contender.
The excellent news for the Clippers is that Brook Lopez enters from Milwaukee as an underrated addition, fixing the backup middle drawback behind Ivica Zubac, and each key participant from the 2024-25 staff will probably be again in 2025-26, aside from Norman Powell, whom LA traded for John Collins on Monday. The unhealthy information is that Leonard and James Harden, plus function gamers Lopez, Nicolas Batum, Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanovic, are all of their 30s, so it is truthful to wonder if the Clippers missed their probability final season.
Los Angeles Lakers
Any staff with Luka Doncic or LeBron James, not to mention each, is routinely a contender. However do the Lakers have a sufficiently robust supporting forged to contend? There are some massive, difficult questions right here: Can lineups with Doncic, James and Austin Reaves maintain their very own on the defensive finish? Will new beginning middle Deandre Ayton, recent off a buyout, play with extra power and reverse his multiyear decline? Can Jake LaRavia substitute Finney-Smith? Is there sufficient taking pictures on this roster?
Anticipate the Lakers’ drama to proceed till they’ll firmly reply these questions.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have been remarkably inactive this offseason, they usually’re in one thing of a holding sample as they wait without spending a dime agent Al Horford to decide, whereas Jonathan Kuminga’s restricted free company resolves. For now, they’re in the same place to how they ended final season: an excellent staff, particularly with Jimmy Butler III within the fold, however not a dominant one. Relying on how the remainder of the offseason unfolds, they may soar up a tier — bear in mind, they may have made the convention finals final season if Stephen Curry hadn’t been injured in Sport 1 of the second spherical — however they have not but executed something to warrant that higher placement.
Dallas Mavericks
Cooper Flagg would not belong within the outdated guard, and the 18-year-old No. 1 decide represents the best motive to be excited concerning the Mavericks. However a staff led by Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving (as soon as he returns from his torn ACL), with Klay Thompson and D’Angelo Russell beginning within the backcourt, nonetheless qualifies for outdated guard designation.
The bigger query concerning the Mavericks is whether or not they have sufficient playmaking — whether or not Flagg can deal with level ahead duties as a rookie, whether or not the streaky Russell will get sizzling and, most of all, whether or not Irving will return at full power or require one other yr to get again up to the mark.
Tier 4: Younger and hungry
1:20
Dylan Harper ‘able to get in there’ with the San Antonio Spurs
Dylan Harper speaks to Monica McNutt after being chosen by the Spurs with the 2nd decide.
Memphis Grizzlies
Buying and selling Desmond Bane turned out to be extra of a one-off adjustment than the beginning of a full-blown rebuild. Memphis adopted up that stunning deal by signing Ty Jerome, buying and selling as much as draft Cedric Coward (a possible Bane substitute) and lengthening each Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama. There’s nonetheless a variety of depth and expertise on this roster.
However with out Bane, one of the best of that expertise is now concentrated at level guard and middle. To keep away from taking a step again, the Grizzlies want both Coward to excel as a rookie, Jaylen Wells to take an enormous leap in his second season or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to bounce again after a down season in Orlando.
San Antonio Spurs
De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama shared the court docket for simply 5 video games final season, within the slim hole between the previous’s commerce to San Antonio and the latter’s analysis of deep vein thrombosis, which ended Wembanyama’s standout second season prematurely. Add in No. 2 decide Dylan Harper and reigning Rookie of the Yr winner Stephon Fortress, and it is clear the Spurs nonetheless have quite a lot of self-discovery forward.
In all chance, then, this will probably be a transition season for San Antonio because it begins to determine its id and the way its gamers match collectively. After touchdown the No. 2 decide, the Spurs notably did not chase win-now strikes like a commerce for Durant. However additionally they may need extra potential for a speedy rise in 2025-26, due to Wemby, who’s favored to win Defensive Participant of the Yr and make an All-NBA staff.
Portland Path Blazers
Final season, the Path Blazers went 13-28 within the first half of their schedule, then 23-18 within the second half, as wings Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara emerged as two-way contributors. And by swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Vacation and elevating Donovan Clingan to a beginning function — a transfer that included shopping for out Ayton — Portland affirmed and strengthened its defensive id this summer time.
It is unclear whether or not the Simons-less Blazers have sufficient offensive juice to rise into the play-in ranks, they usually’ll be relying on Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe to indicate extra progress within the backcourt. However for the staff with the West’s second-longest playoff drought — solely the Spurs’ is longer — issues are trying up in Portland.
Tier 5: What is the plan?
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Stephen A. on Suns’ draft evening: ‘What on earth are the Phoenix Suns doing?’
Stephen A. Smith reacts to the Suns drafting middle Khaman Maluach and buying and selling for middle Mark Williams on draft evening.
Sacramento Kings
In 1,121 possessions with Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine sharing the ground final season, the Kings had an offensive score of 117.4, per Cleansing the Glass. That is a strong mark, rating within the 72nd percentile of all lineups leaguewide. However in those self same possessions, the Kings had a 120.9 defensive score, which ranked within the eleventh percentile. The Kings have stars, they usually’re typically entertaining — however they do not have a practical path towards constantly successful video games. Perhaps they’d compete for a top-six seed within the Japanese Convention, however they don’t seem to be ok within the West.
Phoenix Suns
“What is the plan?” has been a good query to ask Phoenix for some time now, and this offseason hasn’t provided any significant clarification. The Suns did not get a terrific return when buying and selling Durant, whereas concurrently including two facilities on draft evening and nonetheless missing any pure level guards or energy forwards of their projected rotation. Devin Booker and Jalen Inexperienced may make for a really awkward match as a beginning backcourt.
Anticipate the Suns, led by proprietor Mat Ishbia, to maintain sacrificing the long run to attempt to compete within the current. However do not count on too many precise wins.
New Orleans Pelicans
One suspects the Pelicans would place themselves in a distinct tier, given the aggression with which they approached their offseason strikes, most notably buying and selling an unprotected 2026 first-round decide to maneuver up 10 spots within the 2025 draft. And there’s some motive for hope — primarily, if the Pelicans can take pleasure in higher well being after Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones mixed for simply 103 video games final season.
However with CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram gone and Dejounte Murray out with a torn Achilles, there’s additionally a variety of flux in New Orleans, with no clear long-term plan to construct a successful roster. Even within the brief time period, it is not as if the Pelicans have been world-beaters of their uncommon moments of well being final season, as they completed 10-20 when Williamson performed, with a minus-4.3 internet score when Williamson and Murphy shared the ground.
Utah Jazz
On the one hand, Lauri Markkanen remains to be in Utah. The staff needed so as to add Jusuf Nurkic. And new president of basketball operations Austin Ainge mentioned in his introductory information convention, when requested about tanking, “You will not see that this yr.”
But however, Utah shed John Collins, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton this summer time for minimal return; drafted an 18-year-old challenge in Ace Bailey; and is projected to play the youngest backcourt within the league. The Jazz may strive to not tank and nonetheless lose 60-plus video games this season, given their very own deficiencies and the broad power throughout the remainder of the West.