The fashionable NBA is often a league constructed round aggressive home windows quite than perennial competition. Each workforce has missed the playoffs at the least as soon as prior to now decade, apart from the Boston Celtics (who final missed in 2013-14).
As they construct and pay their rosters — particularly below the present collective bargaining settlement — groups should perceive their aggressive cycles and strategize accordingly. Because the 2025-26 season begins, which groups have to win now, and which would favor to compete later as an alternative?
It is that query that informs our Now or Later rankings, which use a mathematical mannequin to position all 30 groups alongside that spectrum.
The Now or Later rankings are made up of two elements with equal weight. The primary is cash rating, primarily based on every workforce’s projected complete funds throughout upcoming seasons, with spending for the present season counting probably the most. The second is draft rating, primarily based on the worth of the long run first-round draft picks that every workforce holds, factoring within the protections and swaps that have an effect on what every choose could be price.
These two elements summarize not simply every workforce’s anticipated aggressive timeframe, however its flexibility to regulate, as effectively. A company that has already traded all its picks and locked in its core to costly long-term offers is displaying clear win-now urgency and might’t simply make adjustments midstream.
So, let’s analyze the rankings, the place the first-place workforce is probably the most determined to win now and the Thirtieth-place franchise is probably the most content material to win later.
Bounce to a workforce:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
Final 12 months: 4th
Cash rank: 1st
Draft rank: sixth
The Cavaliers lead the league in cash rating by an enormous margin as a result of they’re the one workforce above the second apron in 2025-26. They usually’re no slouches within the draft division, both, as a result of they do not management any of their subsequent 4 first-round picks on account of the Donovan Mitchell commerce. They principally could not be extra of a win-now workforce in the event that they tried.
That will not essentially translate into precise wins. Final season, the Phoenix Suns have been probably the most win-now workforce by these rankings, they usually did not even qualify for the play-in event. Cleveland has a lot greater ambitions in 2025-26 and will have a greater probability of fulfilling them one season after successful 64 video games and the East’s No. 1 seed. However these Cavaliers have not reached the convention finals but, and falling quick once more could be an plain disappointment given all the pieces they’ve invested on this season’s workforce.
Final 12 months: Sixteenth
Cash rank: 4th
Draft rank: 2nd
The Magic skilled the biggest year-to-year leap up these rankings of any workforce. They traded a significant choose haul for Desmond Bane and gave Paolo Banchero a max rookie extension a 12 months after giving Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs massive extensions of their very own.
After years of treading water and slowly constructing from inside, the Magic now have a really costly core — they’re already proper across the projected second apron line for subsequent season — that hasn’t completed something but. That is a harmful place to occupy. However within the wide-open East, they selected to undertake a win-now posture earlier than anticipated, and it would repay: Orlando has the second-best projected file within the East this season, in line with ESPN’s Kevin Pelton.
Final 12 months: third
Cash rank: 2nd
Draft rank: 4th
The Knicks entered agency win-now territory in 2024, once they traded for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Cities, they usually’re taking a Finals-or-bust mindset into this season. New York has an costly core, even with Jalen Brunson taking a reduction on his current extension, and preserving that group may develop even pricier if Cities indicators an extension of his personal.
On the draft aspect, the Knicks will lose their first-round picks in 2027, 2029 and 2031, they usually have an unfavorable swap in 2028. Technically, the Knicks have surplus draft capital in 2026, however the top-eight-protected choose they’re owed from the Wizards will nearly undoubtedly not convey, at which level it should flip right into a pair of second-rounders as an alternative.
Notably, the highest three groups in these rankings play within the East, reflecting how the remaining contenders within the weaker, injury-ravaged convention see a possibility to succeed in the Finals.
Final 12 months: 2nd
Cash rank: seventh
Draft rank: third
The Timberwolves fell barely in these rankings general, however the workforce that has misplaced in consecutive convention finals charges as probably the most win-now group within the West. Minnesota is usually locked into its present core after extending Julius Randle and Naz Reid, and 2028 is the one time within the subsequent six years that it controls its personal choose.
The persevering with value of the Rudy Gobert commerce and the value of the Rob Dillingham commerce hamper the Timberwolves’ draft flexibility. On draft evening in 2024, Minnesota traded its 2031 first-rounder and swap rights in 2030 in alternate for the No. 8 choose, however Dillingham averaged simply 4.5 factors per sport as a rookie and scarcely appeared within the playoffs. With start line guard Mike Conley growing older, the Timberwolves want Dillingham to interrupt out in his sophomore season — each to assist the workforce win now, and to justify the onerous value they paid to accumulate him.
Final 12 months: 1st
Cash rank: thirteenth
Draft rank: 1st
Phoenix ranked first in each cash rating and draft rating final season earlier than a fast unscheduled disassembly of a putative championship contender. The Suns traded Kevin Durant, waived-and-stretched Bradley Beal and ducked below each cap aprons. They’d have fallen additional in these rankings in the event that they hadn’t traded for heart Mark Williams or given Devin Booker an extension that does not kick in till 2028-29.
Because it stands, although, they’re nonetheless the primary workforce in these rankings that does not have a practical path to competition in 2025-26. They’ve traded so lots of their picks that they do not management their very own first-rounder till 2032. They cannot win now — however they don’t seem to be positioned to win later, both.
Final 12 months: seventh
Cash rank: eighth
Draft rank: eighth
In the intervening time, Denver is the one workforce that has traded its 2032 first-round choose, which was the associated fee to alternate Michael Porter Jr. for the lower-salaried (and presumably higher) Cameron Johnson. As a result of the Nuggets additionally owe top-five-protected picks to the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder in 2027 and 2029, they’re restricted within the draft compensation they will ship out in midseason trades.
Though shedding Porter’s wage made Denver’s roster a bit inexpensive within the quick time period, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are all signed to long-term offers that would restrict the workforce’s monetary maneuverability, given possession’s tendencies. The Nuggets are a win-now workforce so long as they’ve Jokic in his prime, they usually’re on a conceivable path to successful his second title.
Final 12 months: fifth
Cash rank: fifth
Draft rank: eleventh
By buying and selling Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Vacation over the summer season, the Celtics wiggled their approach out of probably the most punitive monetary penalties they might have confronted for constructing such an costly roster. However they might fall solely thus far in these rankings once they’re dedicated to paying Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown $479 million mixed over the subsequent 4 years. That is nonetheless a workforce that wishes to win within the close to future — simply, maybe, with a one-year delay as Tatum recovers from a torn Achilles.
Final 12 months: twelfth
Cash rank: sixth
Draft rank: tenth
After buying and selling Luka Doncic final season, Mavericks GM Nico Harrison mentioned he envisioned a three- to four-year timeframe for his workforce to win a championship. That mindset is mirrored on this rating, as Dallas has moved extra in a win-now route regardless of dealing a famous person in his prime.
The Mavericks would arguably be best-suited to pivot and construct round 18-year-old Cooper Flagg and 21-year-old Dereck Vigorous II. However since final season, they’ve prolonged Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington, locking each member of their new, veteran-heavy core into place for at the least two extra seasons.
Final 12 months: sixth
Cash rank: seventeenth
Draft rank: fifth
The Bucks’ urgency is nearly existential, as they proceed to make dangerous strikes — most notably, stretching Damian Lillard’s remaining wage to have the ability to signal Myles Turner — with the hope of appeasing Giannis Antetokounmpo and his doubtlessly wandering eye.
Whether or not these transactions will assist Milwaukee advance previous the primary spherical of the playoffs for the primary time in 4 years stays to be seen. However with no management of their first-round choose till 2031, the Bucks haven’t any motive to step on the brakes and alter route, whether or not Antetokounmpo is completely happy or not.
Final 12 months: ninth
Cash rank: twenty third
Draft rank: sixth
At one level, the spendthrift Clippers have been mainstays close to the highest of those rankings. However now Ivica Zubac is the one Clipper owed any assured cash after 2026-27, so the workforce ranks within the backside third of the league in cash rating.
The Clippers are nonetheless working their approach out from below a big draft burden, although, as they do not management any of their subsequent 4 first-round picks due to the Paul George and James Harden trades. And though LA does have its 2030, 2031 and 2032 first-rounders for now, these picks could possibly be on the chopping block if commissioner Adam Silver decides to enact harsh penalties on the conclusion of the Aspiration investigation.
Final 12 months: fifteenth
Cash rank: tenth
Draft rank: 14th
In concept, the Warriors needs to be an intensely win-now workforce, on condition that their most vital gamers are 39-year-old Al Horford, 37-year-old Stephen Curry, 36-year-old Jimmy Butler III and 35-year-old Draymond Inexperienced. However in observe, they nonetheless have all of their very own picks over the subsequent seven seasons, except for a top-20-protected choice in 2030. The truth that they wanted to commerce solely a single first-round choose for Butler final season (which landed at twentieth general within the 2025 draft) was a giant win for the Warriors.
Golden State has the flexibleness to make a splashy win-now transfer midseason if it is nearly as good because the projections and superior stats assume and desires to make an actual run at one other title.
Final 12 months: tenth
Cash rank: ninth
Draft rank: fifteenth
The 76ers are caught between two paths. The win-now route facilities on Joel Embiid and Paul George, who’re each of their 30s and due greater than $100 million mixed this season. However with the well being of each veterans unsure, the 76ers may as an alternative pivot to a future-oriented technique centered on younger guards Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and VJ Edgecombe.
Final season’s 24-58 file suggests this is not the suitable time for any all-in strikes from GM Daryl Morey, which could clarify why Philadelphia nonetheless has a number of future picks in its cabinet. However so long as Embiid is on the roster and even theoretically at full energy, the 76ers must at the least contemplate attempting to maximise his remaining aggressive window.
Final 12 months: nineteenth
Cash rank: 14th
Draft rank: twelfth
New Orleans rose in these rankings after buying and selling an unprotected 2026 first-rounder and including the 2 years and $65.9 million remaining on Jordan Poole’s contract. However are the Pelicans able to win this season? They reached the playoffs in 2023-24 however misplaced 61 video games in an admittedly injury-riddled 2024-25 marketing campaign, they usually have one of many West’s lowest over/below totals getting into this season. Final month, new head of basketball operations Joe Dumars mentioned a playoffs-or-bust objective could be “shortsighted.”
Final 12 months: eighth
Cash rank: twenty fourth
Draft rank: ninth
Wish to know why LeBron James hinted at his discontent with the Lakers’ route over the summer season? Simply have a look at this placement, as his workforce is correct in the course of the Now or Later rankings. In his 40s, James feels the urgency to win now. However the Lakers are taking an extended strategy with Doncic — 14 years James’ junior — within the fold.
Apart from Doncic, who signed a max extension in August, each different projected starter can enter free company subsequent summer season, and the Lakers’ cap sheet is totally clear after 2026-27. The Lakers have ample flexibility to construct round their new star within the seasons to return. Notably, the 2027 free agent class may embrace such stars as Antetokounmpo, Jokic, Cities, Mitchell and previous good friend Anthony Davis, amongst many others.
Final 12 months: twentieth
Cash rank: eleventh
Draft rank: T-Sixteenth
The Raptors are tied for probably the most boring draft checklist within the league: They management all of their very own first-round picks for the subsequent seven years, they usually do not management anybody else’s. So, in the event that they need to assist a successful push in a weak Jap Convention — and it looks as if they do, given all the large salaries they’ve handed out — the Raptors have the belongings to incentivize a commerce companion.
Final 12 months: eleventh
Cash rank: fifteenth
Draft rank: T-Sixteenth
The center is an efficient place to reside throughout a niche 12 months, as Indiana principally sat out the summer season following Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles tear. It stays to be seen how the Pacers change longtime heart Myles Turner, they usually’ll must navigate Bennedict Mathurin’s restricted free company subsequent summer season, however solely Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are making greater than $20 million this 12 months or subsequent.
Like Toronto, Indiana hasn’t traded for or away any first-round picks for the subsequent seven years.
Final 12 months: thirteenth
Cash rank: twenty second
Draft rank: thirteenth
Potential extensions for Tyler Herro and Norman Powell await, however for now, the Warmth have loads of flexibility and never many commitments forward of them. Lower than a 12 months after the ignominious finish of the Butler period, it is sensible that they’d nonetheless be looking for their subsequent daring route.
Whether or not in free company or with a commerce for picks — Miami owes solely a lottery-protected 2027 first to Charlotte, stemming from the disastrous Terry Rozier commerce — the Warmth will, as at all times, be on the forefront of each star transaction rumor.
Final 12 months: twenty eighth
Cash rank: twentieth
Draft rank: twenty first
San Antonio leaped up 10 spots after it traded for and prolonged De’Aaron Fox, nevertheless it’s nonetheless within the early levels of constructing a contender round Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs have an additional choose incoming from the Hawks, plus favorable swaps in 2026, 2028, 2030 and 2031 — which means they might hold getting rewarding picks even when Wembanyama is in his prime and their very own choose presumably lands within the late 20s every year.
Final 12 months: 14th
Cash rank: twenty first
Draft rank: twentieth
The Hawks pulled off a nifty trick over the summer season by concurrently bettering right into a sleeper contender and gaining future roster flexibility. Thank goodness for the Pelicans, whose two trades with Atlanta over the previous 12 months — for Dejounte Murray and the draft choose they used on Derik Queen — have helped the Hawks salvage the wreck of the primary Murray commerce, from which they nonetheless owe a number of picks to the Spurs.
A possible Trae Younger extension looms, and that might push the Hawks again up these rankings if it materializes. However, unexpectedly, the mix of win-now potential and win-later belongings offers Atlanta one of the vital enviable long-term outlooks within the East.
Final 12 months: twenty first
Cash rank: twenty sixth
Draft rank: T-Sixteenth
Detroit did not overreact to final season’s success, staying the course over the summer season and barely nudging up the Now or Later rankings. However that would change at any time; the workforce could be a wonderful match for Lauri Markkanen if the Jazz determine to commerce their big-money ahead. However in the intervening time, the Pistons management all of their future firsts and haven’t any massive monetary commitments past franchise cornerstone Cade Cunningham. Endurance is a advantage.
Final 12 months: twenty third
Cash rank: twelfth
Draft rank: twenty fourth
In an period more and more outlined by monetary selections, the Rockets have finished effectively to navigate their long-term planning; as an illustration, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. all signed sub-max extensions once they have been eligible. Houston’s roster may not stay on inexpensive offers for lengthy. Amen Thompson could be well worth the full max subsequent summer season, however the Rockets are well-positioned to accommodate that new contract alongside their current commitments.
In the meantime, the Rockets may strike gold within the draft, as they maintain the Suns’ unprotected picks in 2027 and 2029 and swap rights with the Nets in 2027. If not for one different workforce later in these rankings, Houston would stand out because the NBA workforce doing one of the best job straddling the road between competing within the current and preserving capital for the long run because it makes an attempt to construct a perennial winner for the subsequent decade and past.
Final 12 months: twenty fifth
Cash rank: Sixteenth
Draft rank: twenty second
After a brief rebuild, Portland is taking its first steps towards present-day competition. The Path Blazers added a pair of veteran guards — Vacation and the injured Lillard — over the summer season, they usually splurged on extensions for Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe this week.
However the Path Blazers are nonetheless firmly on a future-oriented timeline. They’ve a number of further picks and swaps, thanks largely to the Lillard commerce, and aside from Camara and Sharpe, Vacation and Jerami Grant are their solely gamers scheduled to earn greater than $14.4 million in any upcoming season. Rising wing Deni Avdija, whose contract contains three extra years for $39.3 million complete, is signed to top-of-the-line discount offers within the league.
Final 12 months: seventeenth
Cash rank: nineteenth
Draft rank: twenty third
It is considerably shocking that the Kings did not tumble additional down these rankings after the Fox commerce, however a part of Sacramento’s return in that three-team deal was wing Zach LaVine (and his dear contract) quite than further picks. Between LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk and new level guard Dennis Schroder, that is nonetheless a veteran-heavy workforce — which does not actually match the win-later ethos urged by this rating, or the Kings’ choice to maneuver on from their franchise guard.
Final 12 months: twenty seventh
Cash rank: third
Draft rank: twenty ninth
The Thunder ranked twenty first in cash rating final season, then rocketed as much as third in that class by extending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. But Oklahoma Metropolis continues to be owed so many future picks and swaps from quite a lot of groups — the Rockets, Clippers, Jazz, 76ers, Nuggets, Spurs and Mavericks — that the defending champions are nonetheless this far down the general rankings.
Put one other approach, amongst title contenders in 2025-26, the Thunder are the workforce that least must win now. Their future is so vivid that it is nearly as if their presently wide-open championship window is a bonus, a luxurious reward that arrived sooner than anticipated.
Final 12 months: twenty second
Cash rank: twenty seventh
Draft rank: nineteenth
After buying and selling LaVine, Chicago has the fourth-lowest cash rating in these rankings, forward of solely the three worst groups within the league. The Bulls have a wealthy historical past and play in a giant market, they usually’ll have oodles of cap area after this season. Can they capitalize on that chance and entice stars who can return a middling franchise to its glory days?
Final 12 months: 18th
Cash rank: 18th
Draft rank: twenty sixth
The Grizzlies are in an odd place. On the one hand, they received 48 video games final season and have reached the playoffs in 4 of the previous 5 seasons, and All-Stars Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. nonetheless paved the way. Alternatively, the Grizzlies are flush with draft picks following the Bane commerce, and at the least by the target numbers, they appear to be one of the vital win-later groups within the league.
Resolving that stress could possibly be tough; the Grizzlies nonetheless can win with Morant and Jackson, whereas each workforce behind them in these rankings is a candidate to complete with the worst file within the league. However tough is not dangerous, essentially. When unsure, it is higher to have lots of future draft picks than not.
Final 12 months: twenty fourth
Cash rank: twenty fifth
Draft rank: twenty seventh
There is a huge hole between the highest 26 groups and the underside 4 in these rankings, which is sensible, because the final 4 groups are additionally the 4 groups with the worst win projections in 2025-26. The win-later label suits.
The perfect of these groups within the current is Charlotte, which has slowly been build up its draft stash, not with one blockbuster deal that returns a boatload of picks however by buying one choose at a time: for Rozier, for P.J. Washington, for Mark Williams and for serving as a dumping floor for Jusuf Nurkic’s contract.
Final 12 months: twenty sixth
Cash rank: Thirtieth
Draft rank: twenty fifth
The Wizards have nowhere close to the draft capital of the opposite worst groups within the league. That might change if CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton begin sizzling and are flipped for astonishing returns on the deadline, however Washington probably missed its probability when Bradley Beal’s contract was practically untradable. The Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets acquired large choose packages once they dealt their stars, whereas the Wizards largely landed second-round picks and swaps from Phoenix for Beal.
Final 12 months: twenty ninth
Cash rank: twenty eighth
Draft rank: twenty eighth
I have been calculating these rankings for 4 years now, and Utah has ranked twenty ninth or Thirtieth each time. And since all of Utah’s further draft capital is concentrated in 2027 and past — in reality, it owes a top-eight-protected choose to Oklahoma Metropolis within the 2026 draft — it is unlikely to maneuver any greater up the rankings anytime quickly. Very similar to within the Western Convention standings, the Jazz will proceed to be caught on the backside for some time.
Final 12 months: Thirtieth
Cash rank: twenty ninth
Draft rank: Thirtieth
With further first-round picks within the years to return from the Knicks, 76ers and Nuggets, plus different groups relying on how difficult multiteam swaps play out, the Nets have by far probably the most draft capital of any workforce. Regardless that they owe a juicy swap to Houston in 2027, the Nets nonetheless rank because the league’s most win-later workforce on the energy of that warfare chest of picks.
Will the Nets view subsequent season because the time to begin successful, lest they ship a high choose to Houston, or will they keep the course and look at that swap as a sunk value, a lot as they did the picks they despatched to Boston within the mid-2010s? The reply to that query will dictate the near-term future for the Nets, who, for now, are relying on a complete lot of rookies to cause them to a complete lot of losses in 2025-26.