If you happen to do not just like the crew on the prime of the heap within the AFC, simply wait every week. Heading into the 2025 NFL season, there was a consensus that the groups with MVP-caliber quarterbacks which might be perennially atop the convention — the Payments, Chiefs and Ravens — would shortly reestablish their rightful place atop the AFC, a tier above the opposite 13 groups.
In actuality, we have had complete chaos. The Chiefs began 0-2 and truly sit exterior the playoff image on the halfway level because the eighth seed within the AFC. The Ravens opened the season 1-5 earlier than turning issues round after their bye. The Payments have crushed each of their frequent playoff rivals, however they’ve additionally misplaced to the Falcons and now to the Dolphins, who blew them out on Sunday.
That three-team prime tier has given option to a bigger, messier group of claimants to the highest spot within the AFC. None of them has a foolproof résumé. Some groups that had already seemingly introduced themselves as candidates have already fallen out of favor — just like the Jaguars, who in Week 5 went to 4-1 with their win over the Chiefs on “Monday Evening Soccer” earlier than shedding three of their subsequent 4, together with a heartbreaking loss to the Texans on Sunday afternoon. Houston scored 28 unanswered factors within the fourth quarter to tug out a 36-29 victory.
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Which crew ought to we put religion in on the prime of the AFC? Can we default to the Chiefs or Payments due to what we have seen prior to now? Or ought to we be forward of the curve and get behind a crew just like the Broncos, Chargers, Colts or Patriots — the 4 groups which have higher data within the AFC than the previous guard?
I am right here to make a case for that new group of contenders, the groups making an attempt to persuade us that it will not inevitably be the Payments, Chiefs or Ravens competing within the AFC Championship Recreation. Are they on that degree? I am unsure there is a proper reply, however I am going to attempt to make the absolute best argument for every, and we’ll contact on what occurred to them in Week 10. Let’s begin on the very prime of the standings and work our means down.
Soar to:
Broncos | Chargers | Colts | Patriots
Week 10: Beat the Falcons 31-25 (in additional time)
This is the proper instance of how tough it is turning into to guage the highest of the AFC. Did Sunday’s efficiency make you roughly assured within the Colts? A win is a win, and the Colts overcame the absence of injured defensive sort out DeForest Buckner (neck) to take down the Falcons in Berlin, prevailing in additional time on Jonathan Taylor’s third landing of the sport.
You might spin that victory as a constructive. Taylor was unimaginable, as we’ll get to in a second. The Colts confirmed a sure potential to battle adversity and persevere that they have not wanted to point out fairly often in 2025. After the Falcons took a 25-22 lead with 1:48 to go, Daniel Jones overcame a third-and-21 over two performs and received the Colts in vary for a game-tying 44-yard discipline objective. The protection then stiffened in additional time, and in lieu of settling for a discipline objective, coach Shane Steichen’s offense drove 57 yards for a game-winning landing.
And but, on the identical time, it seems like the brand new issues we realized aren’t positives. Indy gave up 25 factors to a Falcons offense that did not decide up a single third down all recreation. The Colts survived by recovering 4 of the sport’s 5 fumbles, together with three of their 4 misplaced footballs on offense. Even with new cornerback Sauce Gardner within the combine, the Colts weren’t capable of shut out the sport with a cease of Michael Penix Jr. within the fourth quarter, because the Falcons drove 71 yards with out ever needing to even face a 3rd down earlier than Tyler Allgeier plunged in from 1 yard out to provide Atlanta a lead.
What was most worrisome, although, was one other high-variance recreation from Jones. One week after he turned the ball over 5 occasions and took 5 sacks in a 27-20 loss to the Steelers, the veteran threw an interception, fumbled 3 times (shedding one) and was sacked seven occasions on simply 33 dropbacks towards the Falcons. Jones made a lot of massive performs, together with a 19-yard scramble to assist prolong the sport on the ultimate drive of regulation, however there have been extra lows than the Colts have been coping with throughout Jones’ unimaginable begin to the marketing campaign.
Throughout his first eight begins in a Colts uniform, Jones did an impeccable job of avoiding damaging performs. He threw simply three interceptions, fumbled twice and took a mere 9 sacks, which yielded the league’s finest sack price on the time. Over his previous two video games? Jones has 4 picks and eight fumbles. He has been sacked 12 occasions, greater than doubling his complete from the prior two months of the season.
Is a few of that variance? In fact. Jones received away with a dropped interception or two through the first half of the season. One among his interceptions towards the Steelers was a throw to the flat that was deflected by one Pittsburgh linebacker to a different like they have been establishing a volleyball spike. Once you’re operating sizzling, these balls hit the bottom, and if you’re not, they one way or the other land within the improper fingers.
The sacks, although, are an actual concern. The true outlier for Jones versus the participant he was in New York was that sack price. At the same time as Giants coach Brian Daboll aggressively inspired Jones to get the ball out shortly and his offenses ran among the shortest common air yard charges of any crew within the league, Jones took sacks on 8.5% of his dropbacks in New York. These takedowns led to tough down-and-distances and points with fumbles and strip sacks.
Steichen had managed to each create alternatives for Jones to throw the soccer downfield and keep away from the sacks that might usually include these pictures. That calculus has shifted over the previous two weeks. It is one factor when the gamers in entrance of Jones battle. Left sort out Bernhard Raimann allowed 5 fast pressures towards the Steelers. Taylor whiffed on a go block towards the Falcons for one sack, whereas one other appeared prefer it got here on a damaged play, with no one bothering to dam a defender flying up the A-gap. There’s not a lot Jones can do about that.
0:16
Alec Pierce elevates for unimaginable TD seize
Daniel Jones throws it deep to Alec Pierce, who comes down with the ball for a landing.
Sack price is a quarterback stat that usually transfers from crew to crew, although, and Jones merely wasn’t cautious with the soccer towards Atlanta. Every of his three strip sacks got here on performs wherein Jones wanted to guard the soccer and didn’t. He did not really feel strain in or across the pocket on two of the sacks and had the ball popped out when he was operating towards the sideline on the third. These are on the QB, not the offensive line or his go safety. And even when they find yourself as sacks, Jones cannot allow them to develop into strip sacks, as a result of there aren’t any ensures that the Colts will be capable to fall on the soccer 80% of the time sooner or later.
This offense has been ruthless all season, however the Colts actually weren’t that on Sunday. One Jones fumble simply exterior the purple zone value the Colts a shot at three factors. Michael Badgley missed a discipline objective and an additional level. Indy failed on a fourth down on the 5-yard line when Taylor was stuffed for a 2-yard loss and on a 2-point try when Jones was late to throw the wheel on mesh and gave the Falcons’ protection time to bat the go away.
The most effective argument: That is the very best offense in soccer in the course of a doubtlessly historic run by its finest participant.
The Colts have been bailed out by Taylor, who responded to his worst recreation of the season in Week 9 by nearly singlehandedly carrying the Colts over the road Sunday. Steichen mainly turned the sport over to Taylor halfway by way of the third quarter, and the operating again completed the day with 32 carries for 244 yards and three scores. The most effective of the day was his 83-yard landing, with Taylor getting bottled up across the line of scrimmage, one way or the other sneaking out of the pile and outrunning cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. to the sideline and up the sector. Steichen and the offensive line have performed a terrific job of setting Taylor up for giant runs this season, however this one was all No. 28.
Taylor’s dominant run actually began within the closing quarter of the 2024 season earlier than extending into 2025. Over that 14-game stretch, he has 306 carries for 1,766 speeding yards and 21 speeding touchdowns. No person is inside 500 speeding yards or six speeding touchdowns of the Colts star over that span.
Professional-rate that efficiency out over a full 17-game season and Taylor racks up 2,144 speeding yards, which might be the single-season speeding document. The 26-year-old would get to 26 speeding touchdowns and three receiving scores, which might be 29 scrimmage touchdowns, second in NFL historical past behind LaDainian Tomlinson’s 31 scores in 2006. Taylor would have a authentic shot within the MVP balloting if he broke one vaunted document and got here near a second, particularly if Jones continues to battle. That would go away the credit score for a wildly profitable season to the Colts halfback.
0:44
Jonathan Taylor’s 83-yard TD breaks Colts’ speeding TD document
Jonathan Taylor explodes for an 83-yard landing to develop into the Colts’ all-time chief in speeding touchdowns.
If you happen to’re arguing that the Colts actually are the very best crew within the convention, after all, that is the place the story begins and ends. Indy’s 3.2 factors per possession stay the fourth finest for any offense since 2000 by way of 10 weeks, trailing solely the 2018 Saints, 2007 Patriots and 2018 Chiefs. It did not finish nicely within the postseason for any of these groups, however by the point we received to January, they have been all rightly acknowledged as offensive juggernauts. The Colts would possibly slip some within the second half, however they have been ok for lengthy sufficient to be taken significantly as an uncommonly spectacular offense.
Probably the most reasonable criticism: They’re lacking superstars past Taylor.
Jones has struggled badly over the previous two weeks, and whereas I am not writing off what we noticed from him over the primary two months of the season after two disappointing video games, it might even be silly to easily discredit the whole lot we noticed over six seasons in New York as irrelevant. Jones unquestionably has expertise and has made strides in Indianapolis, however he has appeared out of rhythm over the previous two weeks. The Colts have a really completely different ceiling with the Jones we noticed in September and October than the one who has struggled in November.
Buckner was the point of interest of the Indy go rush and has no clear timetable for return after struggling a neck harm, which could make Gardner’s presence because the crew’s new star on protection extra important. The previous Jets standout performed 100% of the snaps in his Indy debut, permitting three catches for 46 yards as the closest defender in protection, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo responded to Gardner’s arrival by enjoying man protection at Indy’s third-highest price of the season, and Penix went 5-of-12 for 59 yards towards man-to-man protection. Indy in all probability wants at the very least a few superstars past Taylor and guard Quenton Nelson in the event that they need to make a deep playoff run, although.
The significant résumé: 29-28 win over Broncos, 38-24 win over Chargers, 27-20 loss to Rams
In video games towards stiff competitors, the Colts have mainly battled their opponents to a draw. They manhandled the Chargers, misplaced a irritating one to the Rams partly due to Adonai Mitchell’s brutal fumble on his means into the tip zone and had a recreation towards the Broncos come all the way down to the ultimate snaps, the place a leverage name towards Denver turned a discipline objective miss from 60 yards out right into a 45-yard kick to win the sport for Indy.
Week 10: Beat the Raiders 10-7
If you happen to do not bear in mind a lot from Thursday’s tilt within the AFC West, it is perhaps your mind’s means of making an attempt to recuperate some much-needed house earlier than the vacation season begins. Just like the Colts, a win is a win, as Denver took its profitable streak to seven video games with a victory over its longtime rivals at dwelling. However just like the Colts, I am unsure the sport instructed us something we did not already know in a great way.
The Broncos’ protection fully and totally stifled Geno Smith, who appeared to take the snap on third downs figuring out {that a} pleasant member of the Denver go rush could be assembly him on the backside of his dropback. Vance Joseph’s protection sacked Smith six occasions on 32 dropbacks. When the Broncos pressured Smith, he went 3-of-7 for 8 yards with an interception. And whereas the Raiders can run their means into their very own errors at occasions, the Broncos created 13 fast pressures of the quarterback on Thursday evening, together with six by Defensive Participant of the 12 months candidate Nik Bonitto. These fast pressures are deadly until the opponent has a plan to get the ball out quick, and the Raiders have not actually exhibited many plans in any respect this season.
What has been informative, maybe, is discovering out that this protection can survive and even proceed to thrive with out star cornerback Pat Surtain II, who has missed the previous two video games with a pectoral harm. Joseph performs one of many league’s most aggressive and man-heavy schemes, partly as a result of he has one of many few cornerbacks able to protecting any receiver one-on-one. With out the reigning Defensive Participant of the 12 months within the combine, it was truthful to wonder if the Broncos is perhaps restricted on that aspect of the ball.
As a substitute, they’ve performed simply high-quality. Nico Collins had 75 yards in Week 9, nevertheless it took 11 targets for the star Texans wideout to get there. On Thursday, the apparent point of interest for the Raiders needed to be second-year tight finish Brock Bowers. And whereas the Broncos do glorious work on the skin with Surtain on the sector, groups have had success attacking their linebackers in protection with operating backs this season, suggesting that Bowers may need been capable of exploit one of many few mushy spots the Broncos possess.
Nicely, I am unsure the printed even stated Bowers’ title after halftime. Whereas he did decide up a 31-yard completion to transform a third-and-9 within the second quarter, that reception was Bowers’ solely catch of the day — one week after going 12-127-3 towards the Jaguars. Bowers was capable of command solely three targets all recreation, a testomony to how efficient Joseph’s protection was at corralling the budding star and forcing Smith to go elsewhere. And by the point Smith began trying there, after all, the go rush was normally about to get dwelling.
The protection lived as much as expectations, however it might be powerful to say the identical about Bo Nix, who struggled for the second consecutive begin. That may have been affordable towards the Texans, who’ve the league’s finest protection by EPA per play, however the Raiders have been twenty second within the league by the identical metric heading into Week 10. We noticed Nix slice up the Cowboys and their moribund protection two weeks in the past, so this could have been a chance to get proper.
2:02
‘This seems to be atrocious’: Stephen A. criticizes the Broncos’ offense
Stephen A. Smith just isn’t impressed with the Denver Broncos’ offense, saying the crew is not so good as its document.
As a substitute, the second-year quarterback went 16-of-28 for 150 yards with a landing go and two interceptions. A type of picks was off Troy Franklin’s physique, however Nix wasn’t capable of persistently transfer the soccer. The Broncos failed to select up even one first down on 9 of their 13 drives towards the Raiders, turning into the primary crew with 9 three-and-outs in a recreation this season. The one groups that did it final 12 months have been the Browns, Jets and these very Broncos, who had that occur in Nix’s first profession begin, a 26-20 loss to the Seahawks.
The most effective argument: That is arguably the very best protection in soccer, and protection wins championships.
It is perhaps higher after final season’s Tremendous Bowl to be extra particular and counsel that go rushes win championships, particularly if you find yourself going through a crew just like the Chiefs alongside the way in which. No person will get dwelling extra usually than the Broncos, whose 11.8% sack price leads the league. Joseph blitzes on the sixth-highest price, however Bonitto & Co. even have a barely higher sack price (12.0%) when Denver rushes 4 or fewer guys, which appears wild.
The get-off velocity for Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper makes them just about inconceivable to dam at their finest. Amongst edge rushers with 100 pass-rush snaps or extra this season, Cooper (0.73 seconds) and Bonitto (0.75 seconds) rank first and third in get-off velocity, respectively, sandwiching Myles Garrett and sitting simply forward of Aidan Hutchinson. Mix that with Bonitto’s bend and the sheer pressure of Zach Allen within the center, and the Broncos have a handful of snaps per recreation the place they’re fully unblockable. And when the Broncos get at the very least one sack, the drive normally ends; they’ve allowed simply three touchdowns throughout 39 defensive possessions with at the very least one sack.
Surtain needs to be again quickly, which might restore the Broncos to basically a full roster on protection. The one different defensive starter who has missed important time is linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who performed a majority of the defensive snaps for the primary time since 2023 towards the Raiders. Merely having all of your guys round into the second half of the season (and ideally into the postseason) is a large benefit, particularly when the opposition has injury-impacted weak spots to assault. Dropping Greenlaw and Jon Feliciano and going with out injured security Talanoa Hufanga within the Tremendous Bowl may need been the distinction in San Francisco’s second loss to Kansas Metropolis on the largest stage.
Past guys corresponding to Surtain, Hufanga, Allen and Bonitto, although — all of whom are enjoying at All-Professional ranges this 12 months — the Broncos are getting manufacturing from their secondary items. Malcolm Roach, Dondrea Tillman and Justin Strnad have made significant contributions this season. First-round decide Jahdae Barron noticed his function increase towards the Texans after the harm to Surtain. Different groups have related high-end firepower, however I am unsure anyone has the identical caliber of expertise all through the lineup that the Broncos protection does.
Probably the most reasonable criticism: The Broncos cannot know what they will get on any given day — and even on any given go — from Nix.
No quarterback evokes extra graphics with tortured begin/cease factors. Have you ever ever questioned which quarterbacks have nice touchdown-to-interception ratios over a 10-game span as a rookie? There have been graphics everywhere highlighting Nix’s efficiency over his prior 5 quarters after the win over the Cowboys. However these endpoints exist as a result of they’re surrounded by wildly disappointing performances.
He was improbable in that closing quarter towards the Giants and ripped up the Cowboys’ protection, however he had been dismal in his prior three quarters towards New York and did not do a lot at all around the ensuing eight quarters towards the Texans and Raiders. There’s nothing improper with highlighting a sizzling streak by a participant, after all, however the guardrails are extra instructive right here for Nix, as a result of he can run extra white-hot and frigidly chilly than simply about another quarterback within the league.
It is clear that Sean Payton continues to be doing lots of work in managing the sport for Nix and making an attempt to attenuate the burden being positioned on his second-year starter. This offense has a seemingly countless array of screens, swing passes, jet sweeps, bootlegs and RPOs designed to create straightforward completions for Nix and YAC alternatives for his receivers. Payton then makes use of that eye sweet and Nix’s arm to create pictures downfield. Exterior of Steichen in Indianapolis, I am unsure anyone is creating extra wide-open seems to be downfield on a weekly foundation for potential massive performs than Payton.
Nix simply is not hitting them. He is operating a minus-19.8% completion proportion over anticipated (CPOE) on passes touring 30 or extra yards within the air this season, the worst mark in soccer for passers with 10 or extra of these throws this season per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. Nix is 3-of-27 on these passes, with one landing throw and three picks. The NFL Subsequent Gen Stats mannequin means that he has left 5 of these lengthy completions on the sector, and I might argue that quantity is low.
As ESPN’s Mina Kimes talked about, Nix’s off-target price on throws touring 10 or extra yards downfield is 39%, which is thirty second within the league. He is additionally thirty second on these throws from a clear pocket and once more on first downs, the place his off-target price is a whopping 45%. That final determine is the third worst for any QB in a single season over the previous decade.
The issue is not that Nix cannot throw precisely or hit deep throws. His arm is not a problem in any respect. Watch a few of Nix’s finest throws, like that 93-yard seam shot versus Cleveland’s Tampa 2 protection from final season, and you may see the form of zip and accuracy anybody would need from a younger QB. When Nix is ready and will get his physique right into a throw, he seems to be nice.
The difficulties lie with Nix’s propensity for shifting across the pocket and what that subsequently does for his footwork. Payton indulges Nix’s habits of scrambling round, extending performs and making an attempt to create off-platform and/or out of construction, which might generally create big scrambles and large performs when the ball goes the place Nix needs. When Nix is stopping and beginning as he ambles round, making an attempt to make a throw on a scramble drill, or tossing passes with one foot within the air, there is not any telling the place the ball goes to go, although. These passes result in off-target throws and difficult-to-catch passes that lead to incompletions and interceptions.
The hope was naturally that Nix would have issues decelerate a bit — that he’d be extra constant and intentional along with his footwork and motion in 12 months 2. However I am unsure he seems to be any completely different than he did in 12 months 1. When Nix is in rhythm and enjoying confidently, that may result in sensible stretches of play. And when he is not, as was the case towards the Raiders, it might probably result in video games the place even Broncos followers wonder if they’ve the suitable man.
As ESPN’s Seth Wickersham wrote in “American Kings,” the one refined massive constructive for Nix is avoiding damaging performs. Nix has thrown eight picks this season, which is a slight uptick when it comes to interception price from the place he was a 12 months in the past, however he is taking sacks on a league-low 2.8% of his dropbacks. The most effective model of Nix is scrambling for straightforward first downs and hitting massive pictures downfield, but when he can lower down on the interceptions and finish his drives with kicks, the Broncos’ protection ought to be capable to do sufficient to win video games most weeks.
The significant résumé: 29-28 loss to Colts, 23-20 loss to Chargers, 21-17 win over Eagles.
Just like the Colts, the Broncos have gained considered one of their video games towards stiff competitors in slim trend and misplaced one other in a heartbreaker. Nix missed a giant throw that may have arrange the game-winning discipline objective towards the Chargers, who then drove downfield for their very own game-winning kick.
It is somewhat simpler than Broncos followers would possibly care to confess to poke holes in Denver’s résumé throughout this profitable streak. They began issues off by beating Jake Browning and the Bengals. A comeback win over Jalen Hurts and the Eagles was spectacular, however the Broncos trailed for a bit of the day towards Justin Fields and wanted late comebacks to beat the lowly Jets and Giants. They scored 44 factors on a hapless Cowboys protection, then narrowly beat the Texans, even after C.J. Stroud was knocked out of the sport with a concussion. You simply noticed them battle to place away the Raiders, who missed a 48-yard discipline objective that might have tied the sport with 4:30 left.
That each one adjustments Sunday, when the Broncos get one other dwelling recreation towards the Chiefs. The protection slowed down Patrick Mahomes final season and a late drive had the Broncos in place to kick a game-winning discipline objective, just for the Chiefs to tug out a surprising victory by blocking the kick. The Broncos gained the rematch in a blowout, however that was with Carson Wentz and Kansas Metropolis’s backups on the sector. Get a win over Mahomes and the Chiefs, and it each creates extra separation for the Broncos atop the AFC West and legitimizes their case as an actual contender.
Week 10: Beat the Buccaneers 28-23
The Patriots bandwagon retains taking over extra clients. After Sunday’s victory in Tampa Bay, Mike Vrabel’s Pats have gained seven straight, establishing a two-game lead within the AFC East over the Payments with the tiebreaker favoring New England. The rematch between these two groups, which comes after the Pats’ Week 14 bye, takes place in Foxborough. Between at times, the Patriots face the Jets, Bengals and Giants — three groups which have a mixed document of 7-21 this season. It will hardly be a shock if the Patriots hit that Buffalo rematch with a 10-game profitable streak and an AFC playoff berth in hand.
Sunday was an opportunity to show themselves to some nonbelievers. The Bucs aren’t a terrific crew, however they’ve crushed the Seahawks and 49ers, and Baker Mayfield has been capable of coax the crew to victories when issues have been shut. Going to Tampa Bay in wet circumstances was going to be a take a look at of whether or not the Patriots might take their act on the highway towards stiffer competitors.
The outcomes have been combined. The positives got here with massive performs at precisely the suitable time. Greater than half of Maye’s 270 passing yards got here on three performs: a 72-yard landing go to Kyle Williams, a 54-yard completion to Mack Hollins and a 26-yard throw to DeMario Douglas. Maye additionally hit Stefon Diggs for a landing on fourth-and-goal simply earlier than halftime when on first down it appeared like Maye had intentionally tried to not rating to run clock and maintain the Bucs from getting the ball again. (Vrabel denied it after the sport, but when the Pats have been making an attempt to attain, I am guessing the coach wasn’t impressed with Maye’s efforts on the sneak.)
TreVeyon Henderson added a pair of big performs in his breakout recreation. The rookie operating again took a carry 55 yards to the home within the third quarter, then added a 69-yard pitch to seal issues up within the fourth quarter, seemingly asking the bench whether or not it wished him to go all the way down to run clock over the ultimate few yards earlier than sheepishly crossing the objective line. In all, the Pats had 4 50-plus-yard gainers on Sunday, probably the most any crew has had in a single recreation for the reason that Dolphins went for 70 factors towards the Broncos in 2023.
Large performs are nice, however there is a purpose these Dolphins scored 70 and the Pats managed solely 28. What occurred between the large performs wasn’t very spectacular. The Patriots had a 33.9% success price on offense towards the Bucs, which was comfortably their worst mark of the season. Whereas Maye has been glorious hitting pictures downfield all through the season, no offense can rely on spiking 4 50-plus-yard good points every week. The Pats will have to be extra constant on offense after they do play more durable competitors.
Their prior success price low was 41.2%, which got here within the Week 3 loss to the Steelers, a day the place the Pats made massive performs however turned the ball over 5 occasions, together with twice close to the objective line. Maye took a giant hit in that recreation after which shortly thereafter threw an ill-advised decide in the long run zone. He did the identical factor towards Tampa Bay. The explosive performs gave the Patriots some margin for error. Maye additionally struggled early along with his accuracy when the sport was being performed in heavy rain, one thing to look at for when the Patriots inevitably play in uncomfortable circumstances in December and January.
0:40
TreVeyon Henderson asks sideline if he can rating on 69-yard TD
Earlier than TreVeyon Henderson scores a 69-yard landing, he seems to be to the Patriots’ sideline to see if he must get down or rating.
It additionally wasn’t a banner day for the protection, however as we have seen in different key spots this season, the go rush got here up with a giant play when the Pats wanted to seal issues up. After Maye’s interception, the Bucs drove downfield and confronted a fourth-and-3 within the purple zone with 1:55 to go. The free agent additions made the distinction for New England, because the Pats ran a twist with edge rusher Okay’Lavon Chaisson and defensive sort out Milton Williams, each of whom received by way of the road. Whereas the 2 defenders weren’t capable of sack Mayfield, they pressured him right into a determined throw to Rachaad White, shedding 3 yards. The 2 groups traded touchdowns within the closing two minutes, however after Diggs recovered an onside kick, the Pats have been 8-2.
The most effective argument: They may have the NFL’s finest quarterback.
I laid out Maye’s MVP case in my awards column final week, and whereas he fell simply quick for me, I would not have any situation with voters choosing Maye given his résumé. The second-year quarterback has been glorious as a downfield thrower and scrambler. He leads the NFL in QBR on deep passes (99.9) and towards the blitz (94.1).
Maye is working at a special degree than different quarterbacks within the 2024 draft class, each when it comes to what the Patriots ask him to do and his effectiveness in executing the complete operation of an upper-echelon NFL offense. He is a significantly better and much more constant dropback passer than Nix, Penix or Caleb Williams, and whereas Jayden Daniels was higher as a rookie, Maye was outplaying the Commanders star in 2025 earlier than Daniels suffered his elbow harm. And J.J. McCarthy continues to be basically a thriller field. If the league redrafted 2024 over again, it is tough to think about Maye not being the participant most groups would need to take with the primary general decide.
The offense might get even higher because the season goes alongside. It has been sloppy with fumbles and inconsistent go blocking, particularly at operating again. Henderson continues to be making an attempt to determine himself as a dependable blocker, however his explosiveness was a much-needed burst for a crew that hasn’t reliably had that form of runner within the backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson goes to determine into the combination when he returns from his toe harm, and I’d have preferred to see the Patriots land a viable third again earlier than the commerce deadline with Antonio Gibson performed for the 12 months. However Henderson ought to enhance the speeding effectivity of this group as his function expands within the second half.
Fellow rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson must also enhance as they develop extra comfy with the velocity of the sport up entrance, and Kyle Williams made his presence felt after catching simply two passes within the first half of the marketing campaign, however I am intrigued to see if a veteran receiver could make an even bigger leap. Maye has been totally comfy biking by way of completely different receivers as his major possibility on a weekly foundation. On Sunday, that was Hollins, who led the crew in targets (10), receptions (six) and receiving yards (106).
0:32
Kyle Williams ends 1st quarter with 72-yard TD
Drake Maye throws to Kyle Williams, who takes off for a 72-yard Patriots landing to finish the primary quarter.
Might Diggs emerge as a extra constant No. 1 within the weeks to come back? The Pats have been cautious about monitoring his workload as he will get again to 100% off final season’s torn ACL, along with his snap complete falling between 27 and 41 performs per recreation. Diggs is averaging simply over 21 routes per recreation, which is not a lot in comparison with the league’s prime wideouts. Drake London, for instance, is averaging greater than 33 routes per recreation for the Falcons, whereas Ja’Marr Chase is on the sector for almost 38 routes per recreation in Cincinnati.
Diggs is fourth within the NFL amongst common extensive receivers in yards per route run (2.6), although, just about tied with CeeDee Lamb and forward of gamers corresponding to London, Jaylen Waddle and Amon-Ra St. Brown. He is additionally second in ESPN’s receiver rating metric, trailing solely Puka Nacua. On a route-by-route foundation, Diggs has been an elite receiver for the Patriots this season.
In fact, we will not simply assume Diggs will likely be equally as efficient if the Patriots simply immediately up his snap counts to play on an every-snap foundation. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is unquestionably recognizing Diggs and ensuring to make use of him in spots the place he is extra prone to get the soccer. Diggs additionally in all probability derives some profit from resting greater than different beginning receivers, permitting him to remain more energizing for the routes he does run.
On the identical time, although, this is not a Marvin Mims Jr. or Deonte Harty case, the place a gadget or restricted receiver racks up a gaudy yards per route run determine in a situational function. Diggs was a top-five receiver by these metrics earlier than becoming a member of the Patriots, usually on an annual foundation. He was fourth within the NFL in receiver rating throughout his lone 12 months with the Texans earlier than he tore his ACL. Diggs is able to being an entire receiver. And if he is wholesome sufficient to play a snap share above 75% or 80% down the stretch, do not be shocked if his manufacturing rises accordingly.
Probably the most reasonable criticism: They’ve crushed up on dangerous groups.
With the Panthers shedding to the Saints on Sunday, the Patriots have two victories over competitors with profitable data this season, having crushed the Payments and Bucs on the highway. I discussed how the Buccaneers recreation got here with some unsustainable explosiveness on offense, and a Patriots crew that has pressured eight turnovers throughout their different 9 video games managed to coax three away from the Payments, who’ve been traditionally good at avoiding giveaways. It is powerful to see that occuring once more in a rematch.
It is not simply that the Patriots have averted profitable groups, I suppose, as a lot as they’ve actually gotten to play the true backside of the NFL. They’ve wins over three of ESPN Soccer Energy Index’s four-lowest ranked groups within the Browns, Titans and Saints. They nonetheless have two video games to come back towards the Jets, who rank thirtieth, and the Pats have three extra wins over the Dolphins, Falcons and Panthers, who rank twenty third, twenty fourth and twenty seventh, respectively. Oh, and considered one of their two losses is to the Raiders, who’re the league’s fifth-worst crew.
The one drawback in evaluating the Pats is that the schedule would not get a lot more durable. They get three extra video games towards subpar competitors earlier than the bye, and whereas the Payments and Ravens present up after that, New England winds up with the Jets and Dolphins. This can find yourself being one of many best schedules in current reminiscence, and whereas the Pats can solely beat the groups on the slate, it is powerful to gauge whether or not they could be a winner towards more durable competitors frequently.
The significant résumé: 23-20 win over Payments, 28-23 win over Buccaneers.
If you wish to throw in a 42-13 win over the Panthers or a 21-14 loss to the Steelers, be my visitor, however the Pats have not been examined fairly often this season. I am assured they’re good, however are they as nice as their document suggests?
Week 10: Beat the Steelers 25-10
Sure, the Sunday evening recreation was the bowl to determine who appeared because the fourth crew on this column. The Steelers did not make it a lot of a contest; after a distressingly giant portion of the sport when the rating was both 3-2 or 5-3, the Chargers managed to tug away. They scored 25 consecutive factors earlier than permitting a late landing go from Aaron Rodgers to Roman Wilson with 2:57 to go. By then, even the Steelers followers who had unsurprisingly taken over the stadium in Los Angeles had left to beat the site visitors.
This appeared like a foul matchup for the Chargers on the offensive aspect of the ball. The Steelers have been what I’d charitably describe as inconsistent on protection this season, however the power of their crew is on the sting. T.J. Watt is a future Corridor of Famer, Alex Highsmith is one week faraway from totally annihilating the Colts, and backup Nick Herbig nonetheless leads all edge defenders in go rush win price by a substantial margin. With the Chargers down Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater for the season and beginning the duo of Austin Deculus and Trey Pipkins III at sort out, this seemed to be a legitimately harmful night within the making for Justin Herbert.
As a substitute, we noticed offensive coordinator Greg Roman and the Chargers’ workers piece collectively a logical, profitable recreation plan for Herbert: Get the ball out instantly. Herbert can often lean into holding the ball too lengthy with painful outcomes, so this is not his nature. However with the Steelers holding such a bonus on the sting, the Chargers had no alternative however to get it out quick.
With a shorthanded offensive line, Justin Herbert averaged a 2.21-second time to throw in Week 10 – the quickest of his profession – and confronted only a 30.0% strain price.
Herbert accomplished 15 of 21 fast go makes an attempt for 145 yards and his solely landing.
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Deculus and Pipkins mixed to permit three sacks however just one fast quarterback strain, which is what sank Daniel Jones towards this protection final week. These sacks got here on account of preliminary inside strain or after Herbert had a while to do away with the soccer. No Steelers participant had a couple of fast strain all recreation. And when Pittsburgh did not get strain, Herbert went 17-of-26 for 203 yards with a landing go.
It wasn’t his finest efficiency of the season, however the Chargers have been capable of mitigate the power of the Steelers (their go rush) and assault their weakest hyperlink (the secondary). It did not assist when Pittsburgh misplaced Darius Slay to a concussion, which created extra confusion. The Steelers’ beginning safeties have been Jalen Ramsey, who moved to the place on a full-time foundation final month, and Kyle Dugger, who was acquired by way of commerce from the Patriots two weeks in the past.
The Steelers may give groups hassle by leaning into their bigger personnel groupings, getting two (and as many as 4) tight ends on the sector at one time, and utilizing these checks to restrict what the protection can do with their personnel or schematic decisions. I used to be somewhat fearful from the Los Angeles perspective that Pittsburgh would possibly be capable to overpower the Chargers’ entrance seven.
As a substitute, the Chargers merely did what they may to remove Rodgers’ preliminary learn and trusted that their go rush would get dwelling to both trouble or sack the longer term Corridor of Famer earlier than he discovered elsewhere to go along with the soccer. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter despatched just one blitz all evening, preferring to drop seven into protection and blanket DK Metcalf, who turned seven targets into simply 35 yards.
Rodgers by no means actually appeared comfy. He was 0-for-5 below strain, and when he held the ball for greater than 2.5 seconds, he was 4-of-14 for 55 yards. Rodgers had only one completion which traveled greater than 10 yards within the air all recreation on eight tries. He completed simply 16-of-31 for 161 yards with a landing go and two picks, although one of many interceptions was admittedly an almost-comical drop by a wide-open Calvin Austin III.
Rodgers’ 4.6 Complete QBR was the worst mark posted by any quarterback in Week 10 and the second-worst mark of his illustrious profession, trailing solely his Week 17 efficiency towards the Payments final season (whereas he was with the Jets). The Steelers went three-and-out seven occasions and had two extra drives produce one sole first down every earlier than scoring on their closing possession of the sport whereas down 22 factors.
The most effective argument: The Chargers have profitable coaches and a legitimately nice protection.
After their win, the Chargers climbed as much as sixth within the NFL in EPA per play on protection, precisely the place they completed on the finish of the 2024 season. Whereas the offensive accidents stay a critical concern, and the protection has been down a number of starters as lately as final week towards the Titans, L.A. is starting to get wholesome. The one starter lacking Sunday on that aspect of the ball was wildly underrated cornerback Tarheeb Nonetheless, and that is the deepest place on this roster.
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Chargers decide off Aaron Rodgers for a 2nd time
Donte Jackson hauls within the Chargers’ second interception by Aaron Rodgers.
Given Mike Macdonald’s success in Seattle and Minter’s related background, it might be a shock if the Chargers’ defensive coordinator makes it by way of the 2026 hiring cycle with out leaving for a head teaching job elsewhere. Because it stands, whereas the Chargers do not have fairly as a lot expertise in any respect three ranges because the Seahawks, they’ve younger standouts (Tuli Tuipulotu, Daiyan Henley, Nonetheless, Cam Hart) who’ve exceeded their draft slots and veterans (Teair Tart, Donte Jackson, Elijah Molden and doubtlessly new addition Odafe Oweh) who’ve performed higher below Minter than they’d in prior stops.
After which, atop all that, they’ve a real celebrity at security in Derwin James Jr., who did not miss time after struggling an ankle harm two weeks in the past. The Chargers are seventeenth in EPA per play towards designed runs, so groups can transfer the ball on the bottom at occasions towards them. However staying out of damaging recreation scripts helps maintain that relative weak spot from being exploited. That is perhaps more durable towards groups that may run the ball nicely within the postseason.
The sport plan towards the Steelers was a reminder of what this workers is able to doing. Jim Harbaugh has been a serial winner and made it to the Tremendous Bowl in his second season with the 49ers. Roman was there as his offensive coordinator, and he has performed a superb job of increasing the passing recreation as wanted for Herbert this season, together with leaning closely into the go earlier this 12 months. And Minter’s one of the crucial promising younger coaches in soccer. What number of aggressive groups across the league can say that they really feel nice about their coordinators as they hit the second half of 2025?
Probably the most reasonable criticism: The offensive accidents are an actual drawback.
Alt and Slater are out for the season. So is operating again Najee Harris. And Omarion Hampton, the crew’s first-round decide, continues to be recovering from an ankle harm and simply made it again to observe. And on Sunday, rookie tight finish Oronde Gadsden II hobbled off within the third quarter with a knee harm and did not return, costing Herbert a playmaker who had racked up 377 receiving yards over his earlier 4 video games.
Dropping one sort out could be damaging for a quarterback. Two, particularly of the caliber the Chargers have with a wholesome Alt and Slater on the sector, is perhaps insurmountable. Herbert hasn’t had Slater in any respect this season, however he has had dramatic on/off splits with and with out Alt. With the second-year sort out on the sector, Herbert has posted a 77.0 QBR, which might be the second-best mark within the NFL over the complete 12 months. That has fallen to 52.4 with out Alt within the lineup, which might be good for twentieth. Herbert has averaged 8.6 yards per try with Alt versus 6.4 with out him.
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Herbert fires a strike to McConkey for a Chargers TD
Justin Herbert finds Ladd McConkey extensive open to pad the Chargers’ lead going into halftime.
There’s time for the Chargers to evolve as they face the fact of not having Alt within the lineup the remainder of the way in which, as they did on Sunday, however there is not any denying that lacking arguably their two finest gamers on the roster exterior of Herbert locations an actual cap on the effectivity and effectiveness of the passing assault. This crew was wildly explosive over the primary two weeks of the season whereas operating the best go price over expectation of any offense within the league (NGS). That model of this offense might be on the shelf till 2026, which leaves the Chargers needing to run the ball extra persistently.
With a wholesome Alt, I’d have prompt that the Chargers have been ok to be thought-about on a degree with the Payments, Chiefs and Ravens. With out him or Slater, it is a lot more durable to see that occuring. The offense has excelled by changing slightly below 48% of its third downs this season, the second-best price within the NFL. That is going to be so much more durable to do with two backup tackles, and the Chargers have been 6-for-17 on third down towards Pittsburgh.
The significant résumé: 27-21 win over Chiefs, 23-20 win over Broncos, 38-24 loss to Colts.
Beating the Chiefs has weirdly develop into a much less significant win for the Chargers than it appeared on the time. When the Chargers pulled out that victory in Brazil in Week 1, they have been beating a crew coming off a 15-1 regular-season document when Mahomes was below heart and their third consecutive journey to the Tremendous Bowl. Now, with the Chiefs having misplaced to the Payments, Eagles and Jaguars, that win would not really feel fairly as important — though that has nothing to do with how the Chargers performed that night.
The Chargers are on the Jaguars earlier than their Week 12 bye and host the Raiders after, however issues get more durable from that time ahead. They’re going to host the Eagles (and presumably a really giant variety of Philadelphia followers) for “Monday Evening Soccer” in Week 14, then face the Chiefs in Kansas Metropolis the next Sunday. In the event that they do fend off the Chiefs, the Chargers might journey to Denver in Week 18 with an opportunity of both profitable the division or preserving the Broncos from claiming it for their very own.