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A leaked Protection Intelligence Company report is casting doubt on President Donald Trump’s declare that current U.S. airstrikes “utterly and completely obliterated” three Iranian nuclear services, as a substitute concluding the mission solely set again Iran’s program by a number of months.
The report, printed by CNN and The New York Occasions, comes simply days after Trump accredited the strikes amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. In a nationwide handle instantly following the operation, Trump declared the websites “utterly and completely obliterated.”
Whereas members of the Trump administration have waged a brand new warfare to discredit the preliminary report from the Pentagon’s Protection Intelligence Company, a number of consultants advised Fox Information Digital that there’s too little data accessible proper now to precisely decide how a lot harm the strikes did.
Piecing collectively a radical intelligence evaluation is advanced and time-consuming, they mentioned.
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Trump mentioned Saturday that the U.S. accomplished a “very profitable” strike towards Iranian nuclear websites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, saying that Iran’s nuclear enrichment installations have been “obliterated.” (Fox Information)
Dan Shapiro, who beforehand served because the deputy assistant secretary of Protection for the Center East and the U.S. ambassador to Israel, mentioned he didn’t put plenty of inventory in each overly pessimistic or overly optimistic assessments that emerged shortly, and mentioned that the preliminary evaluation from DIA was seemingly solely primarily based on satellite tv for pc imagery.
“That is one piece of the puzzle of how you’ll actually make this evaluation,” Shapiro, now a senior fellow on the Atlantic Council, advised Fox Information Digital. “You’d actually need to have to check all the opposite streams of intelligence, from indicators intelligence, human intelligence, different types of monitoring the positioning, doubtlessly visits by Worldwide Atomic Power Company inspectors, doubtlessly visits by different individuals. In order that’s going to take days to weeks to get an actual evaluation.”
“However I believe it is seemingly that if the munitions carried out as anticipated, that important harm was performed, and would set again this system considerably,” Shapiro mentioned.
Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Workers, mentioned Sunday that preliminary battle harm assessments instructed “all three websites sustained extraordinarily extreme harm and destruction,” however he acknowledged {that a} remaining evaluation would “take a while.”
Nonetheless, media stories primarily based on the DIA report painted a distinct image, and CNN’s reporting on the preliminary report mentioned that Iran’s stash of enriched uranium was not destroyed within the strikes, citing seven individuals who had been briefed on the report. The findings had been primarily based on a battle harm evaluation from U.S. Central Command, in keeping with CNN.
Different members of the Trump administration, together with Secretary of Protection Pete Hegseth, have subsequently pushed again on the DIA report’s conclusions, claiming that the report was labeled “low confidence.”
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Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks throughout a information convention on the Pentagon, Thursday, June 26, 2025, in Washington. (AP Picture/Kevin Wolf)
The time period is often used when labeling preliminary assessments, and signifies that conclusions are primarily based on restricted information, in keeping with consultants.
Retired Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, who beforehand served because the director for transnational threats on the Nationwide Safety Council for former President Invoice Clinton, mentioned the low confidence description is often utilized in early assessments.
“Low confidence means the analyst isn’t certain of the accuracy of their evaluation,” mentioned Montgomery, now a senior fellow on the Washington assume tank the Basis for the Protection of Democracies. “That is frequent when with a Fast Look 24-hour evaluation like this one.”
Montgomery’s colleague, Craig Singleton, additionally a senior fellow with the Basis for Protection of Democracies, mentioned that the low confidence label is utilized in instances with skinny proof and serves as a warning to policy-makers to hunt further data.
“Most significantly, low confidence assessments are often issued when key info have but to be verified, which definitely applies on this case,” Singleton mentioned.
Rob Greenway, former deputy assistant to the president on Trump’s Nationwide Safety Council, advised Fox Information Digital that it’s going to take one or two months to get a extra thorough evaluation with greater confidence.
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U.S. President Donald Trump holds a gathering alongside Vice President J.D. Vance within the State of affairs Room on the White Home in Washington, D.C., on June 21, 2025. (The White Home/Handout by way of Reuters)
Greenway additionally mentioned that the strikes had been designed to create harm underground, which is able to complicate the evaluation of injury, as a result of it’s not instantly accessible and would require a number of sources of intelligence, reminiscent of indicators or human intelligence, to attract conclusions.
Israel had additionally beforehand performed strikes focusing on the websites, including to the net of research that should be evaluated, Greenway mentioned.
“Every of those are one piece of a a lot bigger puzzle, and also you’re making an attempt to gauge the final word impact of the whole thing of the puzzle, not only one explicit strike,” mentioned Greenway, now the director of the Allison Middle for Nationwide Safety at The Heritage Basis. “All of which means it should take time in an effort to do it.”
Even so, Greenway mentioned that the quantity of ordnance dropped on the websites – together with greater than 14 30,000-lb. bombs – signifies that the focused services have been so closely compromised they’re not serviceable.
“We had been placing twice the quantity of ordnance required to attain the specified impact, simply to make it possible for we did not have to return,” Greenway mentioned.
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President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R) sit within the State of affairs Room as they monitor the mission that took out three Iranian nuclear enrichment websites, on the White Home on June 21, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Daniel Torok/The White Home by way of Getty Photos)
“There’s nearly no mathematical likelihood by which both facility can be utilized once more by Iran for the supposed function, if in any respect, which once more signifies that the whole lot now could be inside Israel’s functionality to strike if that is required,” Greenway mentioned.
And Michael Allen, a former Nationwide Safety Council senior director within the George W. Bush administration, mentioned that although a remaining judgment from the intelligence group received’t be prepared quickly, the intelligence portrait will change into “richer” within the coming days.
“Stuff is pouring in, and we’re on the market amassing it, they usually’re making an attempt to hustle it to the White Home as quickly as doable,” Allen, now the managing director of advisory agency Beacon International Methods, advised Fox Information Digital.
White Home press secretary Karoline Leavitt advised reporters that only a few individuals had entry to this report, and those that leaked it to the media will likely be held accountable because the FBI investigates who shared the doc with the press.
“That individual was irresponsible with it,” Leavitt advised reporters Thursday. “And we have to resolve it. And we have to strengthen that course of to guard our nationwide safety and shield the American public.”