Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season is within the books, and it was every week of upsets. The Panthers handed the Packers their second lack of the season, and the Steelers did the identical to the Colts. The previous is The Massive Factor matter for this week’s column — how do the Packers hold struggling these embarrassing losses? — however there is a key nugget concerning the latter within the Subsequent Ben Stats part, too.
Each Tuesday, I will spin the earlier week of NFL motion ahead, what the most important storylines imply and what comes subsequent. We’ll search measured reactions to everybody’s overreactions, have fun the thrilling stuff that no one is appreciating and spotlight what you may need missed Sunday and Monday. There can be movie. There can be stats (a complete part of them). And there can be enjoyable.
Let’s begin with the Packers.
Bounce to a piece:
Massive Factor: Why aren’t the Packers dominating?
Commerce watch: Let’s play deadline bingo
Second Take: J.J. McCarthy hasn’t turned the nook
Mailbag: Answering questions from … you
Subsequent Ben Stats: Wild Week 9 stats
Monday Evening Thriller: Jones and the TBD commerce
The Massive Factor: The place is the Packers’ dominance we have been promised?
Each week, this column will kick off with one large have a look at a key sport, participant or development from the earlier slate of NFL motion. What does it imply for the remainder of the season? This week, we sort out the Packers, who’ve been upset twice this season.
The Packers’ loss to the Panthers on Sunday was the worst in franchise historical past.
Nicely, probably not. (Taking a look at you, 2014 NFC Championship Sport). However by Vegas expectations, that is tied for the most important upset loss for the Packers for the reason that 1970 merger, as Inexperienced Bay was favored by 13.5 factors towards Carolina.
The Packers are the most important favorites to lose outright for the reason that Titans beat the Dolphins as 14.5-point underdogs in Week 14 of the 2023 season. The Packers are the one group within the NFL this season to have misplaced two video games through which they have been greater than a landing favourite — their Week 3 loss to the Browns as a 7.5-point favourite is the opposite such sport.
The efficiency towards the Browns considerably made sense. The Packers have been nonetheless onboarding edge rusher Micah Parsons and had simply misplaced Jayden Reed (collarbone) indefinitely the earlier week. The Browns’ protection was critically good, too: a top-five unit by each metric. Even then, it took a Jordan Love interception with below 4 minutes remaining, then a blocked Brandon McManus discipline objective, for the Packers to lose.
So what concerning the Panthers? Their offense and protection have been each common getting into Week 9, and Carolina walked into Inexperienced Bay lacking a number of beginning offensive linemen. Panthers QB Bryce Younger was 2-15 as a starter on the street. But, the Packers trailed for almost the complete second half, tying the rating with 2:32 remaining earlier than instantly surrendering the game-sealing discipline objective drive.
The Packers struggling two of probably the most disappointing losses this season is as a lot a narrative of our expectations as it’s of their shortcomings. After they acquired Parsons on Aug. 28, they felt like a contender, including a game-changing participant on protection. At ESPN Guess, they went from 20-1 to win the Tremendous Bowl to 14-1 instantly after the commerce, 11-1 earlier than kickoff in Week 1 and 8-1 after they beat the Lions within the opener.
After Sunday’s loss, the Packers are nonetheless 9-1 to win the Tremendous Bowl. However what was a nagging doubt after the loss to the Browns has grown right into a screaming one after a 40-40 tie towards the Cowboys, a late-game win over the Cardinals, a quiet first half towards the Steelers and Sunday’s loss to the Panthers. If the Parsons commerce was imagined to make the Packers right into a juggernaut … why have not we seen that occur but?
To a level, the outcomes towards the Panthers are aberrative. The Packers had solely seven drives, as Carolina correctly shortened the sport with a gradual offensive operation. The Panthers snapped the ball with minimal time left on a working clock (42.5 seconds of sport clock per play), inched their manner down the sphere with the speeding assault and went for it on fourth downs.
The most effective protection towards a high-powered offense just like the Packers’ unit is conserving it on the sideline. The second-best protection? Taking part in deep zone protection and forcing that offense to inch alongside. Carolina was in zone on 89.5% of its snaps towards Inexperienced Bay.
Of these seven Packers drives, six crossed the Panthers’ 25-yard line — but the Packers scored solely 13 factors. Previously 10 years, solely 11 groups have scored fewer factors on no less than six drives throughout the opponent’s 25. There have been many causes for the low-scoring output: a Savion Williams fumble, a missed discipline objective in gusty winds, a third-and-3 TFL making a fourth-and-8 catastrophe. Run this sport again 100 occasions, and the Packers rating greater than 13 factors in 99 iterations.
Packers coach Matt LaFleur spoke concerning the Panthers’ defensive method in his postgame information convention. When requested about Love’s downfield interception, LaFleur stated: “I believe all of us — and I am speaking about myself as a lot as anyone — once we get into all these video games the place it is nearly constant execution … you possibly can’t chase the large play. They have been enjoying tender zone the vast majority of the sport and making us earn and constantly transfer the ball, and finally, on each drive, virtually, we made a mistake.”
This is the play LaFleur is referencing. This can be a designed shot play: two tight ends, below heart play-action, Watson on the large publish with Romeo Doubs behind on the over route.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 3, 2025
It isn’t a terrific play. You possibly can inform LaFleur is pissed off together with his name — why go for a shot play when the Panthers have been providing you with free entry to beneath throws? Did he get impatient, searching for an enormous spark to win the sport with one throw?
There’s additionally a query for Love, who might have purchased time to throw Doubs on the over route — a preferable matchup, with solely a linebacker sinking beneath the route — or checked it all the way down to the late-releasing tight finish.
So, this was a nasty play, however Love was strong at pushing the ball downfield regardless of the Panthers’ defensive method: 3-of-5 on throws 20-plus yards. One incompletion was the decide, however one other was a catchable ball/perhaps a drop from Matthew Golden.
The deep ball is an inextricable a part of Love’s sport and LaFleur’s corresponding offensive philosophy. For the reason that 2023 season, 12.8% of Love’s passes have traveled no less than 20 yards downfield — the fourth-highest fee, behind solely Will Levis, Anthony Richardson Sr. and Russell Wilson. However Love and LaFleur can turn out to be overly cautious when the Packers are massive favorites.
Take a look at how Love’s downfield aggressiveness adjustments relative to the expectation getting into the sport. Neither Love nor LaFleur is Vegas spreads throughout the week and constructing a sport plan across the quantity, in fact — but when we use the unfold as a proxy for the way significantly better we predict the Packers are than their opponent, we will see that the downfield aggressiveness vanishes from the Packers’ method. Critically, this wasn’t as current when Aaron Rodgers was enjoying below LaFleur.
However Love averaged 8.1 air yards per try Sunday — farther downfield than we might count on. After the sport, LaFleur wished that their passing sport was just a little extra cautious. “We constantly moved the ball. I imply, nine-play, nine-play, 10-play, 10-play, 13-play, 12-play [drives]. I do assume there’s just a little little bit of urgent to get an enormous play, however after they’re not there, you possibly can’t chase it.”
This dichotomy will not be unfamiliar. The Chiefs confronted this problem in 2021 and 2022, when opposing defenses virtually universally deployed tender shell coverages towards their downfield passing assault, demanding the Chiefs string collectively lengthy, mistake-free drives. We spent a lot of final September bemoaning the explosion of two-high defenses and the accompanying deflation of the passing sport.
However the Packers aren’t well-suited to the altering tide. This season, solely two Packers ability place gamers have greater than 20 yards after the catch over expectation, as calculated by Subsequent Gen Stats. One is working again Josh Jacobs. The opposite, unsurprisingly, is celebrity tight finish Tucker Kraft, who tore his ACL on this sport and is out for the rest of the season. Kraft has 109 YACOE this 12 months; the remainder of the group has 111 mixed.
Love will not be used to authoring nine-play, 10-play, 12-play scoring drives. It isn’t how Watson, Doubs and Golden excel. That kind of offensive method belongs to groups just like the Panthers, who’re attempting to shorten a sport as a 13.5-point underdog. To show a few of these longer drives into faster ones that finish in touchdowns, the Packers want extra yards after the catch that solely Kraft was offering.
A greater working sport would additionally assist. Very like in YAC, the Packers are struggling relative to expectation. Jacobs has 29 speeding yards below expectation — Twelfth worst amongst backs this season. Backup Emanuel Wilson is 16 yards under expectation; gadget WR Williams is 15 yards under expectation. The Packers aren’t producing the extra yards wanted to play a ball-control, incremental model of offense with minimal possessions.
“You bought to have the ability to run the soccer. I believe that is been just a little little bit of a difficulty, at occasions,” LaFleur stated. “If they’ll play tender shell, and also you’re handing the ball off and getting 2 yards — not that it was constantly like that, however there have been a pair occasions like that — you get behind the sticks, and it will get tougher.”
LaFleur will get grief from the Packers’ fan base for his dedication to the working sport in these cases, and the numbers bear it out. The Packers are fourth in run fee over expectation towards two-high shells pre-snap, however common solely 4.7 yards per stick with it such runs. The league common is 4.9.
This attitude additionally makes the loss towards the Browns much more comprehensible. Love averaged 1.6 air yards per throw in that sport, and the Packers’ receivers collectively produced solely 12 yards after the catch over expectation regardless of producing 134 YAC outright. In that sport, the Browns performed 47% cut up security protection — the second-highest fee of any sport in Jim Schwartz’s tenure as Cleveland’s defensive coordinator.
1:17
Ought to managers be hesitant to start out Jordan Love in fantasy?
Subject Yates breaks down why Jordan Love is not a lock to start out in fantasy this week.
The Packers stay a wonderful group that can play a significant function within the NFC — even with the offensive accidents. There is no doubting that. However there’s a friction between philosophy and execution that should be resolved between now and the postseason. Inexperienced Bay would not have the gamers or precision essential to reliably string collectively lengthy scoring drives. The Packers can do it for stretches, in fact — 20 straight completions towards the Steelers! However the subject is why the Packers have not displayed the full-fledged dominance anticipated of them this season. This inconsistency is why.
The excellent news is that salvation can come from many locations. If the offensive line lastly will get a number of wholesome video games collectively, maybe the working sport turns into extra explosive. Within the absence of Kraft, maybe different YAC choices resembling Luke Musgrave, Golden or Williams will emerge. Reed, who has been nice for YAC in earlier seasons with the Packers, might return sooner or later this season from his collarbone and foot accidents. Love has one other stage to unlock in his decision-making towards shell defenses; he can play sooner and extra aggressively. And perhaps they’ll simply keep away from penalties, fumbles and missed kicks for a four-game postseason run, and that’ll be that. They will elevate the Lombardi Trophy, and none would be the wiser.
The Packers are the place different elite offenses with star quarterbacks have been earlier than. Whether or not they claw their manner out can be decided by the changes revamped the subsequent 9 weeks. The NFC continues to be large open. Buckle up.
Let’s play commerce deadline bingo
I made a bingo card for issues which may occur on commerce deadline day. Both all of us win, or all of us lose. Word that the board is dwell as of Tuesday, 6 a.m. ET. Test again afterward Tuesday for my “winners and losers of the deadline” column, and I will replace on how all of us did. Till that 4 p.m. ET deadline, although, let’s have some enjoyable.
There’s nothing extra disappointing than a dreary commerce deadline. Let’s make some offers. To construct our board, I mixed among the early deadline reporting to construct some squares (see: Patriots commerce for a receiver), a few of my inside suspicions and musings (see: Raiders are deadline sellers) and a few of my favourite commerce deadline traditions (see: wild overpays). If we get a mega commerce of Trey Hendrickson to the 49ers, we will get 75% of the way in which to a bingo on one diagonal alone. If the Eagles ship picks for Hendrickson, we will name them all-in and get virtually the complete leftmost column.
We won’t be counting the Eagles’ deal for Jaelan Phillips for the third-round decide sq., wage restructure sq., or the ex-coordinator sq., because it got here in too early. We are going to, nonetheless, be counting the Dolphins sending Phillips as one of many two offers needed for the “two or extra Dolphins trades” sq.. These are the principles that I made up on the spot, and they’re written in ink.
Second Take: Let’s not make J.J. McCarthy the NFC Participant of the Week this time, please
ESPN’s “First Take” is understood for, properly, offering the primary tackle issues — the moment reactions. Second Take will not be a spot for immediate reactions however relatively the place I will let the mud settle earlier than taking maybe a little bit of a contrarian view.
What an amazing efficiency from the Vikings.
Let’s begin with the protection. The Lions have performed 80 video games (together with playoffs) below coach Dan Campbell. By offensive success fee, Sunday’s’ 27-24 loss to the Vikings was the Lions’ sixth-worst offensive efficiency throughout that tenure, with 45.5% of the Lions’ drives (5 of 11) ending with out Detroit choosing up a primary down. There was just one sport the place the Lions have been worse on this class, which mockingly got here towards the Vikings in Week 7 final season.
However the Vikings’ protection exchanged stops for accompanying offensive explosives in that sport, surrendering 9 explosive passes and two massive runs. On Sunday, Minnesota gave up solely six explosive passes (two of which got here on the Lions’ ultimate drive after they have been down 10 late within the fourth quarter). They did not surrender an explosive run — the primary time the Lions have been held with out an explosive carry since their 2023 wild-card playoff win over the Rams.
This was the sport that the Vikings constructed for final offseason, as their funding at defensive sort out paid off. Free agent additions Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, together with incumbents Jalen Redmond and Levi Drake Rodriguez, have been extremely disruptive towards the Lions’ tandem of latest guards. The Vikings had 11 complete tackles for loss — 5 sacks and 6 extra within the working sport — which is probably the most Campbell’s offense has suffered.
The constant penetration, together with the wonderful blitz designs of defensive coordinator Brian Flores, had Jared Goff frazzled within the pocket. Goff’s difficulties creating throws from transferring platforms have been on harsh show, as he accomplished solely 40% of his cross makes an attempt for 4.7 yards per throw when pressured whereas struggling the 5 sacks. When unpressured: 86.4% completion fee for 9.7 yards per try.
Minnesota despatched tons of stress down the middle of the road, forcing RB Jahmyr Gibbs into cross safety — however stopping energy towards charging linebackers is actually not his sport. As Nate Tice of Yahoo identified, Gibbs gave up extra pressures than any working again in a sport since 2018.
The Lions have severe questions on offense (they’d equally unhealthy video games by success fee towards the Browns and Buccaneers this season) — however final season, they’d the Vikings’ quantity in explosive passing performs. This was a dramatic enchancment for Flores’ group and a transparent product of an offseason intention to get higher towards this divisional foe.
Earlier than we transfer on, a fast phrase for particular groups: By NFL Subsequent Gen Stats’ numbers, the Vikings obtained plus-27% win likelihood added by particular groups towards Detroit. That is twentieth amongst 268 group performances this season — a really elite effort. Returner Myles Value, who has been nice this season, had a 61-yard kickoff return within the first quarter to arrange the Vikings’ first scoring drive. Minnesota additionally blocked a fourth-quarter discipline objective try that may have drawn the Lions inside 4 factors, and returned that ball to the Detroit 26 to arrange a vital ultimate discipline objective that supplied the eventual margin of victory. Massive performs!
This brings us to the Vikings’ offense, which was ok to win Sunday. The working sport was the driving pressure of the outing. The Vikings’ speeding success fee of 54.2% was the Twelfth-best sport an offense has had towards Detroit within the Campbell period. By EPA per rush, eleventh. By explosive rush fee, 14th.
Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell clearly wished to decelerate the cross rush of the lately prolonged Aidan Hutchinson, typically having working backs run proper at him or freezing him in place with backfield movement and choice performs. Minnesota was far trickier within the working sport with McCarthy on the helm than they have been in earlier seasons with Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold or Carson Wentz. They tagged runs with RPOs and included McCarthy as a hold choice on zone learn appears to be like.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 4, 2025
Hopefully, we name the Vikings’ monumental victory in Detroit precisely what it was: a group win. Each part contributed positively, which insulated McCarthy from having too massive an affect on the result. It was solely his third profession begin. He was getting back from a significant damage, enjoying in a hostile surroundings, and at a confidence low level, given his two-game pattern measurement and among the damaging protection about his damage.
However group wins turn out to be quarterback wins with stunning ease when McCarthy is the quarterback. The published, as seemingly each Vikings broadcast does, recalled McCarthy’s profitable file as a highschool and faculty quarterback. Heck, he is 2-1 as an NFL starter — a profitable file.
McCarthy’s greatest performs got here in high-leverage moments. His greatest throw was the third-and-5 dot to Jalen Nailor to seal the win. McCarthy makes the appropriate learn towards man protection, taking the wheel path to Nailor over the dig to Jefferson, who’s working proper right into a robber security. The ball is out on time and thrown precisely, with the right tempo so Nailor can monitor it.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 3, 2025
McCarthy had a number of correct throws and is at his greatest simply ripping high-velocity fastballs into the sideline. However as was the case in September, throws with contact challenged his ball placement, and poor pocket footwork sapped his consistency. McCarthy stays petrified of home windows in the midst of the sphere, which led to a few his sacks and restricted the kind of ideas O’Connell might name: 6% of McCarthy’s makes an attempt have been to the intermediate center of the sphere this season, lower than half of Sam Darnold’s fee (13.4%) in 2024.
Although the center of the sphere will not be McCarthy’s power, he brings different instruments to the desk. His mobility was a optimistic towards the Lions’ blitz-happy method, and his third-and-8 scramble landing was reminder of the additional advantage he brings together with his legs. However on the day, the Vikings’ passing sport — and offense as a complete — was once more erratic below McCarthy.
Think about the cut up in offensive efficiency on referred to as runs relative to dropbacks, and the offensive engine was clear.
Altogether, Minnesota’s offensive success fee was 40.8%, in the identical neighborhood because the win towards the Bears (41.8%) and loss to the Falcons (38.0%). The Vikings averaged solely 4.4 yards per offensive play, and 5 Lions defensive penalties for 41 yards and 4 first downs actually helped Minnesota transfer the ball.
Each time the numbers look unhealthy for McCarthy, there is a protesting chorus: “He is clutch! He is poised! He simply wins!” McCarthy appeared calm and managed on the primary two drives, which have been scripted performs — as soon as the offense obtained off script and the Lions hit him a number of occasions, his composure began to wane. He was sacked 5 occasions, turned the flawed path throughout a few run performs, dropped a snap and sprayed a number of throws. Within the second half, the Vikings’ two scoring drives began on the Lions ‘ 26- and 35-yard strains, respectively.
Judging McCarthy’s 12 months up to now has been one of many season’s nice challenges. The prime-time win towards the Bears and accompanying mythmaking felt like strenuous overreaching. Whereas the Vikings have been uber cautious speeding McCarthy again, the shadow benching conspiracy after the ankle damage felt equally preposterous. As soon as once more, this was McCarthy’s third profession begin. Although early returns are extremely worrisome, we’re 10 begins from establishing a agency opinion on the younger passer, and one other 17 after that from writing that opinion in pen, not pencil.
This can be a sport to solid apart our quarterback obsession and see the forest for the timber. I ranked the Vikings’ teaching workers the perfect in soccer this offseason, and this sport is an amazing instance. Flores and O’Connell outcoached their counterparts on the Detroit sidelines in extremely hostile circumstances. To make McCarthy the story of this sport is to completely erase the spectacular efforts of many Vikings — coaches and gamers. I merely will not have it.
From y’all
The most effective a part of scripting this column is listening to from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by electronic mail (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime — however particularly on Monday every week — to ask a query and probably get it answered right here.
From Horse: As somebody who was towards beginning Daniel Jones and has needed to get up and eat crow as DJ has been impressively not-awful to start the 12 months, how loud ought to I sound the alarm after he appeared utterly out of his aspect in Pittsburgh?
Not loudly. The Colts had six turnovers Sunday. Typically, you simply have six turnovers and lose a soccer sport. That is the annoying and great factor concerning the sport. Anybody can implode at any time.
There are clear areas through which Jones would possibly regress (and has began to regress; see under). However the collective high quality play of the Colts’ ability positions, in addition to super teaching from Shane Steichen, will not all evaporate without delay. The Colts in all probability will not finish the season as the best offense in NFL historical past — their tempo by eight video games — however they’re going to nonetheless be fairly good.
That protection, although? Assist is required.
1:09
Was the Colts’ loss a nasty sport or a nasty signal?
Domonique Foxworth, Rex Ryan and Adam Schefter debate if the Colts’ stage of concern after getting beat by the Steelers.
From John: What is the group you are feeling like has the perfect likelihood to enhance on one facet of the sphere with higher well being and extra expertise within the second half?
The Buccaneers’ offense is certainly up there. Mike Evans is not coming again, however Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving and Emeka Egbuka all will. Proper sort out Luke Goedeke, whom I name probably the most underrated participant in soccer, was simply designated to return from IR, as properly. Tristan Wirfs obtained again within the beginning lineup however hasn’t appeared like his dominant self — hopefully, he’ll spherical into type because the season progresses. Tampa’s underlying offensive metrics aren’t good, however they’ve finished properly to outlive the primary half of the season at 6-2. I count on an offensive leap down the again 9.
Different good candidates: Ravens protection (already seeing that begin to come to fruition). Panthers offense (with just a little offensive line stability, some precise secondary pass-catching choices in Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette, and a wholesome Bryce Younger … we would see them within the NFC playoff image). 49ers offense (duh).
From Collector: You possibly can decide any participant to be your WR #1 for the remainder of the 12 months. Your solely objective is to win a Tremendous Bowl this 12 months. Contract would not matter for this train, and also you’re assured that whoever you decide will stay wholesome. What number of receivers are you choosing earlier than JSN?
Oof. OOF. That is brutally laborious. By rule, I’m extraordinarily suspicious of single-season manufacturing. I need a participant to be elite for a number of years earlier than I name them elite — although you would argue Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s elite play started late final season. And his play is not simply elite — it is so uniquely spectacular that it virtually breaks all the principles.
OK, OK. I’ll take Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Justin Jefferson over Smith-Njigba. They have been elite for longer. Smith-Njigba has been higher than every of these gamers this season, however nonetheless, a bigger pattern issues — and Nacua does stuff as a blocker that Smith-Njigba would not. Similar with Chase after the catch.
I believe…that is it? Not A.J. Brown, not Amon-Ra St. Brown, not Nico Collins, not Drake London — although, oh my heavens, did you see London towards the Patriots? Ridiculous participant. Strongest palms in soccer.
CeeDee Lamb is shut — I believe if he hadn’t gotten damage, he’d be shredding this season. Then once more, he would not have 4.58 yards per route run, which is what Smith-Ngjiba is at proper now. It is the perfect eight-game begin to a season for yards per route run in NFL historical past … 2023 Tyreek Hill is second at 4.45 yards per route run, and the one participant above 4.00 since routes run have been charted in 2008.
Yeah, that is it. Simply these three. I can not put him above Jefferson. I simply can’t.
(I actually wish to, although.)
2:31
Schefter to McAfee: Seahawks a group to look at forward of commerce deadline
Adam Schefter explains to Pat McAfee why the Seahawks are an intriguing group to look at forward of the NFL commerce deadline.
Subsequent Ben Stats
NFL Subsequent Gen Stats are distinctive and insightful nuggets of knowledge which might be gleaned from monitoring chips and big databases. Subsequent Ben Stats are often numbers I made up. Each are under.
44.1%: That was Patrick Mahomes’ completion share towards the Payments on Sunday, the worst mark of his profession (142 video games).
The story of this achievement was stress. Mahomes went 3-of-16 on pressured dropbacks on this sport for a paltry 18.8% completion fee. Within the renewed spirit of a downfield passing assault, which the Chiefs spent all offseason promising and selling, Mahomes averaged 17.9 air yards per try on pressured dropbacks — the second-highest mark for a sport in his profession.
It is powerful to fault Mahomes’ method an excessive amount of — there have been open receivers downfield and blanketed receivers beneath. However one factor is evident, and should be addressed earlier than a possible Buffalo rematch within the postseason — 18 pressured dropbacks, however zero scrambles.
plus-60: That is the Broncos’ level differential within the fourth quarter this season. The subsequent-closest groups are at plus-37 (Panthers, Jets).
Via the primary 9 video games of a season, plus-60 is the fifth-best fourth-quarter level differential this century. The 2025 Broncos are behind the 2015 Texans, 2009 Saints, and weirdly sufficient, two extra Broncos seasons: 2012 and 2016. That 2009 Saints group is of specific observe, as Sean Payton was the coach there, as properly. The Saints began the season 9-0 and completed 13-3 on the way in which to profitable the Tremendous Bowl.
I am suspicious of the 2025 Broncos’ capability to repeat that run, and it comes all the way down to the opposite three quarters. The 2009 Saints have been plus-60 in level differential throughout the primary three quarters; the 2025 Broncos are minus-1. Although Payton is discovering offensive options within the fourth quarter to alleviate early-game woes, that is a kind of traditional short-sample success stats that we count on to regress to the imply as time goes on.
minus-0.81: That is Daniel Jones’ EPA per dropback when pressured over the previous two weeks — the second-worst mark amongst all quarterbacks. From Weeks 1-7, it was 0.15 — the perfect.
In opposition to the Steelers particularly, Jones averaged minus-1.03 EPA per dropback — a disastrous day. He was pressured on solely 32% of his dropbacks, however went 6-of-13 with 2 interceptions and 5 sacks. Left sort out Bernhard Raimann and proper sort out Braden Smith struggled with the Steelers’ collective velocity at edge rusher. They gave up 10 fast pressures (a stress in below 2.5 seconds), probably the most Jones had endured this season.
We all know play below stress is very risky. The worst performs, like sacks, all the time come from stress; typically the perfect performs, like massive downfield completions, come as a result of a blitz was picked up. Jones was unsustainably glorious towards stress to start out the season, however he possible will not have minus-1 EPA per pressured dropback the remainder of the way in which, both.
One thing we count on to be sticky within the NFL is pressure-to-sack ratio — the speed at which quarterbacks flip pressures into sacks. Some quarterbacks are low-sack gamers as a result of they’ve such super escapability (Josh Allen) or throw the soccer away readily (Bo Nix). Others are high-sack gamers as a result of they maintain the ball to create (Drake Maye) or wrestle to establish stress rapidly sufficient (Justin Fields).
In his six seasons earlier than this 12 months, Jones had a sack-to-pressure fee of 23.27%, which was just a little above league common. From Weeks 1-7 this season, Jones was at 8.57% — a fraction of his earlier profession tempo. Over the previous two weeks? 30.8%. Proper again up once more.
The sport towards the Steelers doesn’t erase Jones’ glorious play to start the season, but it surely serves as a reminder of what we have realized about quarterbacks like Goff, Sam Darnold, and Jalen Hurts in recent times. On supercharged offenses with high quality working video games, elite ability place teammates and glorious scheming, the weak level is commonly the quarterback — even when that quarterback’s stats look sterling. If and when the Colts’ offense breaks this season, count on the breaking level to be Jones … till he proves in any other case.
52%: That was the Payments’ run fee of their win over the Chiefs. Within the earlier six video games towards the Chiefs, their run fee was 38%.
Operating the ball to regulate the clock towards Kansas Metropolis is much from a brand new concept. However the Payments have by no means been so dedicated to a high quality, downhill working sport authored by true handoffs, not Allen scrambles or keepers. Operating again James Cook dinner III had 114 yards on 27 carries — the primary 100-yard rusher towards the Chiefs’ protection since his former faculty teammate Zamir White did it in Week 16 of 2023.
However the story is not Cook dinner. It is this offensive line. Cook dinner had 55 yards earlier than contact — probably the most of any again with no less than 10 carries towards the Chiefs for the reason that 2020 season — and was touched behind the road of scrimmage on solely 18.5% of his carries. And it isn’t simply the offensive line: fullback Reggie Gilliam performed 17 snaps and was dominant on the level of assault. Tyrell Shavers, the Payments’ greatest blocking receiver, performed a season-high 31 snaps, too.
The Payments have the league MVP at quarterback, however their handoff sport — once more, with no need to make use of Allen’s legs — is just one of many 5 greatest within the NFL this season. Buffalo must proceed leaning right into a downhill, run-first method on offense and unleash Allen solely when opposing defenses have been pressured to index to the run.
1:36
Stephen A.: The Payments aren’t the perfect group within the AFC
Stephen A. Smith says he is not taking an excessive amount of from the Payments’ win over the Chiefs within the common season.
100%: How sure I used to be that Brandon Aubrey would hit that 68-yard discipline objective try Monday.
That was Aubrey’s first miss from 60-plus yards this season (had hit from 61 and 64 beforehand). It was not simply his first profession miss from 60+ in AT&T Stadium — it was his first miss from 50+ in AT&T Stadium. He was 18-of-18 earlier than that kick. There may be no one on the earth happier that Aubrey lastly missed a distance kick than Jaguars PK Cam Little, who set the file with a 68-yarder on the finish of the primary half towards the Raiders. The historical past books will nonetheless bear in mind Little — no less than for one more week.
Monday Evening Thriller: Jerry Jones and the TBD Commerce
Editor’s observe: The Cowboys traded for Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson on Tuesday morning after this story posted.
This is what we all know.
At roughly 2 p.m. ET on Monday, Cowboys proprietor and basic supervisor Jerry Jones appeared on the “Stephen A. Smith Present” on Sirius XM Radio and introduced that the Cowboys … had made a commerce? Have been engaged on making a commerce? A number of trades?
Yeah. We do not know a lot.
“A whole lot of motion happening proper now when it comes to buying and selling,” Jones stated earlier than the Cowboys performed Monday night time. “We actually have made a commerce, and we could make a pair extra trades earlier than that deadline. We have made one. We presumably might make two extra, and I’ll wait and allow you to examine that once we ship the papers in tomorrow.”
It is unclear if the “one” Jones is referring to is the Micah Parsons commerce, which technically was earlier than this 12 months’s commerce deadline. Or one other one which hasn’t been processed but. And if the one is but to return, does the “two extra” deliver us as much as three complete? Simply how energetic will the Cowboys be?
Jones’ postgame feedback have been predictably unhelpful. When requested if he nonetheless had a commerce prepared for tomorrow, Jones responded, “We nonetheless can, sure.” Presumably, there may be a suggestion on the desk that the Cowboys can nonetheless settle for, and Jones plans to simply accept. When requested if the commerce was contingent on the end result Monday, Jones continued: “Once more, once more, perceive what I’ve stated: completely we do. We’ll see how tomorrow goes. At present was all about tomorrow. You should not do something. It’s best to wait and see what we do tomorrow.”
I do not know what which means.
Let’s return to what we do know. The Cowboys are 3-5-1 after an embarrassing house loss to the now 3-5 Cardinals. Dallas’ offense had solely three factors earlier than the fourth quarter, through which the Cowboys trailed by 17 factors and have been benefiting from garbage-time protection. Jacoby Brissett, the Cardinals’ backup quarterback, had his greatest passer score (115.1) of the season and his fifth-best mark of the previous 4 seasons.
I will by no means say by no means with Jones, the person who traded Parsons as a result of he was upset a handshake deal from months earlier fell by. But it surely’s laborious to think about trades that may repair this protection, which wants a number of gamers at linebacker and cornerback to have a viable cross protection, and will use (get this) one other run-stuffing defensive lineman besides. No one can flip over a roster like that midseason.
The offense had a quiet sport towards Arizona till the late landing, however that is nonetheless a playoff unit. This protection is prohibitive to 2025 competition, and the Cowboys could be openly short-sighted to make vital acquisitions on the deadline within the hopes of saving this season.
So, what’s Jones as much as this time? We’ll discover out collectively!