There are 13 video games left in Week 9 after the Ravens beat the Dolphins on Thursday night time. To prepare for the remainder of the motion, our NFL analysts have you ever coated on last-minute prep.
First, analytics author Seth Walder breaks down three stat developments that may very well be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy soccer author Eric Moody runs by way of 5 gamers who’re rostered in below 50% of ESPN fantasy soccer leagues as of Saturday and may very well be began in a jam. That is adopted by NFL analyst Ben Solak predicting three doubtlessly huge surprises and NFL analyst Matt Bowen choosing one key matchup to look at. Lastly, sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado offers her favourite guess of Week 9.
Has effectivity really been an issue for 49ers working again Christian McCaffrey this season? Who has the sting in a strength-on-strength Broncos-Texans matchup? Is there fantasy upside for Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold or Bears tight finish Colston Loveland in Week 9? And will the Steelers finish the Colts’ four-game win streak with an upset?
We get into all that, plus plenty of key intel on the AFC Championship Sport rematch between the Chiefs and Payments. Let’s begin there.
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Stat developments | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Greatest guess of the week
Walder: Three key stat developments that would decide Week 9 winners
Can the Payments’ protection push the Chiefs out of their consolation zone?
No staff likes to move greater than the Chiefs, and virtually no staff likes to move in the midst of the sphere greater than them. Fifty-six p.c of their targets land between the numbers, second highest within the league. However that may very well be a difficulty towards Buffalo’s protection, which permits the third-lowest goal charge to the center of the sphere (43%).
Along with that, the Payments are a run-inducing protection. The move charge over expectation towards them this season is a league-low minus-10%. (Buffalo having the fourth-worst run protection by way of EPA per play absolutely has one thing to do with that quantity.)
So what does that imply for Kansas Metropolis’s offense? As an alternative of counting on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice’s strengths in the midst of the sphere, this may very well be decided by Xavier Worthy’s skill on the surface and/or deep. Manufacturing from working backs Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith may very well be essential, too. Beginning working again Isiah Pacheco is just not anticipated to play after spraining a knee ligament final week.
Will 49ers working again Christian McCaffrey discover effectivity towards the Giants?
Have you learnt who has the worst rush yards over expectation within the NFL this season, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats? Imagine it or not, it is McCaffrey at minus-92. It has been ignored as a result of he has had such a productive season within the move recreation, however McCaffrey and his 3.5 yards per carry have hardly been environment friendly.
Maybe an antidote is coming in Week 9. The Giants are permitting 5.7 yards per carry this season, most within the NFL. Nevertheless it will get even higher for the 49ers. They run exterior zone 52% of the time (second most), and the Giants are permitting even extra yards per carry towards these performs (6.7).
Who will win within the trenches, the Broncos’ offensive line or the Texans’ move rush?
This can be a pure strength-on-strength battle. The Broncos have maybe one of the best pass-protecting offensive line within the league. They’re No. 1 in move block win charge (72.5%), and tackles Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey are tied for fifth in PBWR at their place.
That skill has been key to the staff’s offensive success with quarterback Bo Nix, however will probably be below a unique stage of scrutiny Sunday. Houston’s Will Anderson Jr. has had a scorching begin with a 27.2% move rush win charge that ranks second at edge, and Danielle Hunter is ninth in the identical class (20.2%). If the Broncos can maintain off these two edge rushers, they’re going to be in good condition. However that is a giant ask.
Moody: 5 fantasy sleepers it’s essential to choose up — and might begin this week
Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks (35.4% of rostered)
Darnold struggled towards Houston earlier than Seattle’s bye, scoring simply 8.6 fantasy factors, however that has been the case for nearly each quarterback towards the Texans’ protection. They’ve allowed 10.5 fantasy factors per recreation to the place.
Earlier than that recreation, Darnold had scored 16 or extra fantasy factors in 5 straight contests, together with two with not less than 20. He has one of many league’s high receivers in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and faces a Commanders protection that has given up the fifth-most fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks.
Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco 49ers (26.7% rostered)
Bourne is an intriguing choice for Week 9. With huge receiver Ricky Pearsall nonetheless sidelined and quarterback Brock Purdy’s standing unsure, Bourne ought to stay the 49ers’ No. 2 receiver. He has already proven chemistry with backup Mac Jones from their time in New England and has delivered regular fantasy manufacturing in current weeks. Going through a Giants protection that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy factors per recreation to huge receivers, Bourne has a transparent path to focus on quantity and upside.
Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears (24.1% rostered)
Loveland may very well be leaned on extra this week with Cole Kmet nonetheless restricted in observe and a number of Bears receivers coping with accidents. The rookie tight finish performed over 80% of the offensive snaps and noticed 5 targets towards the Ravens. What makes Loveland much more interesting is the matchup, as no protection permits extra fantasy factors per recreation to tight ends than Cincinnati.
2:10
Are the Bears severe playoff contenders?
Taylor Lewan, Dan Orlovsky, Andrew Hawkins and Will Compton debate if Caleb Williams and the Bears are frauds.
Brashard Smith, RB, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (12.8% rostered)
Kareem Hunt is anticipated to begin for Kansas Metropolis after Isiah Pacheco’s harm, however Smith also needs to see extra touches. He has recorded not less than three receptions in 4 of his previous 5 video games, and although he hasn’t been closely used as a runner, he may very well be viable if given extra carries. It additionally helps that the Payments have allowed the sixth-most fantasy factors per recreation to working backs.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (10.9% rostered)
Pierce is the definition of big-play upside, averaging 21.4 yards per reception this season. He has topped 60 receiving yards in 4 of six video games and has seen not less than 5 targets in 4 contests, together with 10 targets in Week 7. The Steelers’ protection has given up the fifth-most fantasy factors per recreation to huge receivers and 13 passing touchdowns, placing Pierce in place for one more explosive efficiency.
Solak: Do not be shocked if …
The Bears bounce proper again towards the Bengals
Chicago was on a four-game profitable streak after they caught the Ravens at an absolute nightmare spot final week — after a bye, at residence, extremely motivated to make a playoff push and returning a ton of gamers from harm. The Ravens appeared like an elite staff once more, and the Bears are nonetheless a step or two beneath that standing. However the Bengals? Chicago ought to run roughshod on Cincinnati’s protection, and it’d lastly discover some move rush towards the Bengals’ shaky inside.
The Steelers upset the Colts
It’s exactly when everybody doubts him probably the most that Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has his biggest performances. The 7-1 Colts are due for a letdown recreation, and touring to Pittsburgh with a depleted secondary feels harmful. The Colts have been good at producing stress with 4 rushers, however accidents to Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis query their depth at line of defense, too. Indy ought to lead for a lot of the recreation with that super offense, but when that is inside one rating within the fourth quarter, be careful for a masterclass from Steelers kicker Chris Boswell.
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McCarthy to McAfee: Rodgers is absolutely beginning to settle in with Steelers
Mike McCarthy joins Pat McAfee and discusses watching Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers host the Packers.
Rumors in regards to the Vikings buying and selling for a QB intensify
We’re getting J.J. McCarthy’s third begin this week, and it is a doozy. The Vikings are on the highway in Detroit towards an incredible run protection and a complicated, aggressive secondary. I anticipate a ton of third-and-longs for McCarthy and a few shaky move safety. If this recreation will get ugly simply two days earlier than the NFL commerce deadline, I would anticipate Minnesota to make some requires a viable QB2 who may moonlight as QB1. The Colts’ Anthony Richardson Sr.? The Eagles’ Tanner McKee? The Chiefs’ Gardner Minshew?
Bowen: Key matchup to look at
Chiefs coach Andy Reid vs. the Payments’ foundational coverages
Walder talked about the Payments’ energy at defending the center of the sphere, however one other wrinkle to contemplate is their reliance on zone protection. Buffalo runs zone on 69.5% of opponent dropbacks (eighth most within the NFL), so Reid can work to scheme throws for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Suppose leveled routes right here, with vertical clear-out routes to elevate the safeties and open the protection voids for intermediate targets.
A selected participant to look at? Travis Kelce, who simply had a season-high 99 receiving yards towards the Commanders. I feel he can be a significant a part of the matchup.
Maldonado: My favourite guess for Week 9
UNDER 52.5 factors in Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at Buffalo Payments
Buffalo is just not constructed just like the outdated model that lived on chunk performs. The Payments are run-focused, averaging a league-high 164.4 speeding yards per recreation, and are prepared to take what’s given to them. In the meantime, Kansas Metropolis dictates tempo, makes use of the run and leans on possession and persistence.
The Payments’ accidents on the inside line of defense (defensive deal with Ed Oliver is out indefinitely with a torn biceps) may matter, however that doesn’t robotically flip this right into a shootout. As an alternative, this matchup may flip right into a ball management script, as each groups are throughout the high three leaguewide in time of possession. This one can be tight, bodily and determined by execution — not explosive performs.