The leaves are falling, the new takes are flowing, the clocks are turning again — and it’s as soon as once more time for a gathering between two of the NFL’s greatest.
Welcome to Spherical 10 of Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen, or extra precisely, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (5-3) vs. Buffalo Payments (5-2) on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS).
Each groups have completed atop their respective divisions for the previous 5 seasons and have met in every common season since 2020 — plus 4 postseason video games in that span. After Sunday, the ten matchups will mark probably the most between beginning quarterbacks age 30 or youthful from completely different divisions (three greater than another matchup). It is usually tied for probably the most matchups over a six-season span between two groups from completely different divisions (1972-77, Steelers-Raiders).
Kansas Metropolis has had the benefit within the playoffs, winners of all 4 postseason matchups. However the Payments have received 4 of 5 regular-season conferences, together with the previous 4 in a row. The Payments’ protection has been the main distinction. Within the common season, the Payments have allowed 20.8 factors per sport (whereas scoring 25.8). Within the postseason, the Payments have allowed 34.8 factors per sport (whereas scoring 28.3).
There may be potential for an eleventh matchup this postseason, however each groups have actual competitors inside their respective divisions and different AFC threats, together with the 7-1 Indianapolis Colts.
Each groups have defensive strains with depth points and MVP quarterbacks who’ve needed to carry their offenses, at instances. The Chiefs just lately bought again receiver Rashee Rice from suspension, however the Payments are nonetheless looking for a spark within the passing sport.
This sport is a stepping-stone for each groups of their quests for a Tremendous Bowl title and will decide seeding later within the season. The Chiefs need to match the Nineteen Nineties Payments as the one groups to succeed in 4 straight Tremendous Bowls. The Payments have not reached the Tremendous Bowl since 1993, the top of that run within the 90s, and are looking for a powerful ultimate season at their historic Highmark Stadium.
ESPN’s Chiefs reporter Nate Taylor and Payments reporter Alaina Getzenberg break down the matchup and the place the 2 groups are in Week 9:
What’s completely different in regards to the Chiefs and Payments from final yr?
Chiefs: Mahomes can have extra passing choices than he had a yr in the past. Receivers Rice and Hollywood Brown have helped the Chiefs’ offense develop into an explosive unit once more, and even speedy receiver Xavier Worthy has proven enchancment in his route operating since his rookie season. The Chiefs have scored a minimum of 28 factors in every of their previous 5 video games, so it is a significantly better offense than a yr in the past.
A lot of the eye for the Chiefs, winners in 5 of their previous six video games, has been on the offense. The Chiefs’ protection, nevertheless, seems to be extra ready. The Chiefs have surrendered simply two touchdowns up to now 10 quarters, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo ought to have all of his projected starters out there. The linemen round cross rusher Chris Jones — defensive ends George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu and Mike Danna — are performing higher than initially of the season, too.
One of many largest themes for the Chiefs this season is Reid’s ultra-aggressiveness. With Mahomes on the sphere, the Chiefs have transformed 14 of 16 fourth-down makes an attempt (87.5%) — the very best success price of groups which have had 10 or extra makes an attempt.
Payments: After a sizzling begin to the season, the Payments misplaced two in a row earlier than the staff’s bye week. Accidents have piled up on protection, particularly at defensive sort out, and continued changes shall be wanted.
The looming commerce deadline marks a chance for the Payments, who’ve struggled with consistency within the downfield passing sport. The struggles have performed a component in Allen being sacked 14 instances — the identical quantity he had all of final season. He additionally has 4 interceptions, two shy of final season’s whole.
Operating again James Prepare dinner III has been an excellent greater menace on the bottom this yr because the Payments search a balanced offense, main the league in speeding yards per sport at 107.6. In contrast to earlier years, the Payments need the passing sport to match the speeding assault, one thing coach Sean McDermott stated was vital this week.
There are some new faces alongside the staff’s line of defense, together with the offseason addition of Joey Bosa, who leads the league in stress proportion (18.2%).
This yr, the Payments and Chiefs have extra opponents for the highest seed within the AFC, growing the significance of profitable this sport.
Talking of these different AFC candidates …
0:45
Riddick: Payments’ roster is designed to beat Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Louis Riddick explains why a Week 9 loss to the Chiefs at house can be a devastating blow for the Payments.
Each groups have competitors within the division for the primary time in a number of seasons. How will they carry out?
Chiefs: Reid acknowledged earlier than the season how a lot the Chiefs’ AFC West rivals improved. The Los Angeles Chargers proved that by beating the Chiefs in São Paulo, Brazil, within the season opener. The Denver Broncos lead the division and have a 6-2 file coming into Sunday behind the NFL’s high protection and Bo Nix’s improved play in latest weeks.
The matchup in opposition to the Payments is the beginning of a vital stretch for the Chiefs, who nonetheless have 4 divisional video games left. After their bye week, the Chiefs will face the Broncos and the red-hot Colts earlier than their showcase sport on Thanksgiving Day in opposition to the Dallas Cowboys. The Chiefs are hoping to seize their tenth consecutive AFC West crown, which might assure them a minimum of one house playoff sport. The Chiefs’ rematch in opposition to the Chargers, set for Dec. 14, shall be a chance as an example how a lot their offense has improved because the opener.
With three losses already, the simplest means for the Chiefs to regain the division lead is to brush the Broncos. Reid, Mahomes and the remainder of the staff can have loads of motivation. Ten months in the past, within the regular-season finale, the Broncos, needing a win to clinch the convention’s ultimate playoff spot, beat Kansas Metropolis 38-0. One might argue the Chiefs, who had already clinched the highest seed and rested their starters for the sport, did not get pleasure from Broncos coach Sean Payton operating up the rating.
Payments: The New England Patriots are an actual menace to the Payments’ quest for a sixth straight AFC East title. Whereas the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are close to the underside of the convention, Buffalo is second within the division at 5-2 behind the 6-2 Patriots, who’re on a five-game profitable streak.
The Patriots have the tiebreaker in opposition to the Payments after profitable the Week 5 assembly, which ended Buffalo’s 14-game house profitable streak. The Payments got here into the season 26-6 vs. the AFC East within the common season since 2020.
Final season, the Payments grew to become the seventh staff since 1980 to clinch a division title with 5 video games remaining in a season. That is not wanting seemingly this season.
The Payments might even the rating with the Patriots in December, however for now, Buffalo must sustain with New England to have an opportunity on the division title.
Allen and Mahomes are two of the NFL’s high QBs, however have they got the supporting casts to win the Tremendous Bowl or make one other deep run?
Chiefs: The Chiefs seem prepared for one more run in January and February. The Chiefs are one of many healthiest groups on the halfway level of the common season, and that is one of many largest advantages for Mahomes. He has his full complement of cross catchers, together with tight finish Travis Kelce and receivers in Rice, Worthy, Brown and deep-threat Tyquan Thornton.
Maybe the largest motive the Chiefs are prepared for a playoff run is that they’ve appeared to unravel their largest situation from final season: left sort out. The Chiefs reached the Tremendous Bowl final season regardless of utilizing 4 gamers — Kingsley Suamataia, Wanya Morris, D.J. Humphries and All-Professional left guard Joe Thuney — on the place. The instability impacted Mahomes, who was sacked a career-high six instances within the Chiefs’ blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Tremendous Bowl LIX regardless of not being blitzed within the sport; Mahomes additionally had a career-worst common of simply 245 passing yards per sport final season. However this season, the Chiefs have gotten improved play from rookie left sort out Josh Simmons, their first-round choose, and Jaylon Moore, their largest acquisition in free company.
With higher safety, Mahomes has scrambled extra typically due to need reasonably than want. Every of his three landing passes in Monday’s win over the Washington Commanders occurred with him having a minimum of 4 seconds to throw.
“It is big whenever you’re getting the time to sit down within the pocket and sort of undergo your reads and make that stuff occur,” Mahomes stated Wednesday. “It offers you confidence that you just’re seeing the suitable stuff. You probably have confidence, then you may go on the market and throw it the best way you need to throw it. I believe that is big, and all of it begins up entrance with the O-line.”
The principle situation for the Chiefs’ protection is the inconsistency of the cross rush. Jones continues to be one of many league’s most dominant inside rushers, typically commanding two linemen to dam him always. The Chiefs might look so as to add one other lineman earlier than the commerce deadline.
The Chiefs will enter Highmark Stadium with the league’s second-best protection, which has allowed simply 16.4 factors per sport. One motive for the success is that Spagnuolo might need the league’s greatest trio of linebackers in Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal. The three linebackers have been efficient in limiting the manufacturing of some standout operating backs — together with Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne Jr., Jahmyr Gibbs and rookie Ashton Jeanty. The most important check for Spagnuolo’s linebackers shall be Prepare dinner, who has been glorious this season.
Though the Chiefs do not generate many turnovers, they sort out nicely within the open discipline.
“Every week, we’re consistently making an attempt to enhance [and] get higher on the fundamentals, the strategies, no matter it’s,” stated Danna, who recorded an interception and sack final week. “It is about weeks of preparation. We take that very significantly, practising with a function. There’s at all times room for enchancment. The second you are feeling such as you’re good, you get complacent, and we do not need to take our foot off the fuel pedal. We do not have [any] time or [any] room for that.”
Payments: An enormous query in Orchard Park is that if the Payments will commerce for a large receiver earlier than the deadline for a second straight yr.
Second-year receiver Keon Coleman has not emerged the best way the staff had hoped. After a splashy begin in Week 1 with eight receptions for 112 yards and a landing within the win vs. the Baltimore Ravens, Coleman has averaged 25.8 yards per sport and scored only one landing. His lack of consistency is a matter.
“I simply do my job, man, do my 1/11 after which all people else do their 1/11, and when the cross sport actually is required for us to actually do what must do, we’ll capitalize,” Coleman stated.
Per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats heading into the Week 8 sport vs. the Carolina Panthers, Allen had focused a downfield open receiver (passes of 10-plus air yards with 3-plus yards of goal separation) on a career-low 6.7% of his passes, the seventh-lowest price within the NFL on the time. On throws of 20-plus air yards, Allen has 9 completions (fifteenth), 238 yards (twenty third) and two interceptions.
The Payments’ offense has Prepare dinner, who has been electrical this season, and was dynamic in Buffalo’s loss within the AFC Championship Recreation final season to the Chiefs. He’s coming off a career-high 216-yard speeding efficiency. Vast receiver Khalil Shakir can be fifth within the league in yards after the catch (293).
On protection, the Payments have been decimated by accidents this season, with no place hit tougher than defensive sort out. Ed Oliver is out indefinitely due to a torn left biceps, whereas DaQuan Jones (calf) will miss a 3rd straight sport.
In Sunday’s sport vs. Kansas Metropolis, Buffalo wants rookie Deone Walker and veterans Jordan Phillips and Larry Ogunjobi to be impactful contributors.
The excellent news for the protection is that linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are trending towards their returns. It additionally would not be stunning if rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston takes on a much bigger position in his second sport due to the velocity of the Chiefs’ extensive receivers (Hairston ran a 4.28 40-yard sprint on the NFL scouting mix).
How have Mahomes and Allen performed to this point?
Chiefs: Mahomes is without doubt one of the main MVP candidates as a result of he has recorded a league-leading 17 passing touchdowns and dedicated simply 4 interceptions — and two of these turnovers are after Kelce bobbled the ball. In contrast to final yr, Mahomes can be utilizing his legs extra typically. He has generated 280 speeding yards and 4 speeding touchdowns. He’s on tempo to interrupt his profession excessive of 389 speeding yards, which he set in 2023.
In every of the previous six video games, Mahomes has unfold his passes to a minimum of six completely different teammates. A part of the explanation for Mahomes’ success is that the offensive line has given him loads of time. On cross makes an attempt of over 4 seconds in final week’s win over the Commanders, Mahomes accomplished 8 of 9 passes for 149 yards and three touchdowns, in line with Subsequent Gen Stats.
“His means to do it on the transfer is exclusive,” Reid stated Wednesday of Mahomes. “You see a little bit little bit of that from Josh, too. Pat’s bought nice imaginative and prescient, and I do know [Hall of Famer] Troy Aikman talked about [that]. He goes, ‘Man, his imaginative and prescient is unbelievable.’ He says [Mahomes] appears to see all the pieces. He is blessed with that half.”
Payments: Allen definitely hasn’t been at his greatest this season. The seven-year veteran stated within the first half in opposition to the Panthers, he was not trusting his toes or eyes sufficient.
“There’s nonetheless the need and the starvation to proceed to get higher with myself mechanically,” Allen stated. “And simply ensuring I am doing the suitable issues and looking for myself and put myself in one of the best spots doable to ship one of the best ball that I can to our receivers to go make performs for us.”
Allen has a 37 Whole QBR in three video games since Week 5 (twenty sixth out of 31 certified quarterbacks) and has a Whole QBR under 55 in three straight video games, tied for the second-longest streak of his profession and longest since 2019 (5 straight).
There is no doubt he stays one of many league’s greatest dual-threat quarterbacks. He has his highest completion proportion since 2020 (68%) and has saved the Payments’ offense in video games this yr.
Allen at all times appears to rise to the event for giant video games.
What would be the key for every quarterback to win on Sunday?
Chiefs: Limiting detrimental performs
In final week’s win over the Commanders, the Chiefs had two turnovers on their first two drives. They can’t afford to make related errors in opposition to the Payments. One motive the Chiefs have performed with the lead throughout a lot of their three-game profitable streak is that they have not dedicated many errors, whether or not it is Mahomes being sacked, him throwing an interception or one among his teammates committing a penalty.
In final yr’s loss to the Payments, Mahomes threw two interceptions, one on the opening drive and the opposite on the finish of the sport. If Mahomes has a clear sheet, and spreads the ball to his teammates, the Chiefs ought to have an opportunity to attain 30 factors.
Payments: Josh Allen being Superman
The Payments beat the Panthers nearly solely on the power of Prepare dinner and the offensive line, however that sport plan is unlikely to work in opposition to Kansas Metropolis. As a substitute, Buffalo’s greatest probability of success is Allen having a signature standout efficiency in an enormous sport, together with Prepare dinner’s brilliance on the bottom.
The query this time is whether or not the protection is wholesome sufficient to help Allen and if he has the receivers to get the job performed.