Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and a Polish presidential candidate, discusses the necessity for European nations to extend protection spending, the connection between the U.S. and Poland, the upcoming presidential election and world commerce.
Poland goes to vote in a presidential runoff Sunday. The nation is likely one of the few financial success tales in Europe.
Its economic system is rising far sooner than among the bigger economies. It grew 2.9% final yr, eclipsing 2.8% progress within the U.S. And it slammed Europe’s three largest economies with minus 0.2% progress for Germany and plus 1.1% for each in France and the U.Ok.
Poland’s economic system has grown 11 occasions bigger since 1986, virtually twice as quick because the U.S. did over the identical interval.
“The final yr or two has seen a growth, and it is getting publicity,” Mateusz City, a senior economist at Oxford Economics in Warsaw, Poland, advised FOX Enterprise earlier this yr. “There actually is a European tiger proper at Germany’s door.”
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Karol Nawrocki, a candidate for Polish president, greets supporters in Gdańsk Could 18, 2025. (Mateusz Slodkowski/AFP by way of Getty Photos / Getty Photos)
The success is partly as a result of unleashing of Poland’s human capital in addition to the well-known Polish work ethic. On prime of that, Donald Tusk successful the function of prime minister in 2023, taking up from the right-wing Regulation and Justice Occasion, has helped. Earlier than Tusk, the federal government was focused and sanctioned by the European Fee over claims it didn’t have an unbiased judiciary. Critics have additionally puzzled why Tusk escaped sanctions over the closing down of some Polish media.
Now Poland will select a brand new President in a runoff between the middle left and the correct wing. After the preliminary vote earlier this month, there at the moment are solely two candidates, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, a left-leaning candidate, and Karol Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing Regulation and Justice social gathering.
Karol Nawrocki, left, and Rafal Trzaskowski are in a runoff for president of Poland because the nation goes to the polls Sunday. (Getty Photos / Getty Photos)
As of Thursday, Trzaskowski was main 48% to 47% over Nawrocki, in keeping with a ballot of polls printed in Politico. The 2 candidates are statistically neck and neck, however no matter occurs, one in every of them will take over from the present president.
“[If Trzaskowski] wins the election, each the federal government and presidency could be pro-European Union,” Ben Habib, a former co-deputy chief of the Reform UK social gathering, advised FOX Enterprise. “There’d be no inherent checks on the legislative agenda.”
A person wears a “Make Poland Nice Once more” cap whereas attending Independence March, celebrating the 106th anniversary of Poland regaining independence, in Warsaw Nov. 11, 2024. (Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto by way of Getty Photos / Getty Photos)
Nonetheless, it might additionally go the opposite means if the presidency goes to Nawrocki. “Whereas the presidency in Poland is essentially ceremonial, the election end result with both help or hinder the Tusk authorities’s EU-aligned reform agenda,” Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London advised FOX Enterprise.
“The President has veto energy and Tusk doesn’t have a three-fifths majority within the Sejm (decrease home) to override a veto,” Haddad mentioned.
Including to the curiosity within the contest has been the Trump White Home, which is claimed to be backing Nawrocki. Certainly, earlier this month he met President Trump on the White Home in addition to DHS Secretary Noem who was at CPAC in Poland, the place she gave her backing to him too.
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There may be at the least one similarity between each candidates. They need to lower taxes.
“It’s simpler to make guarantees while you aren’t in cost,” City, senior economist at Oxford Economics in Poland mentioned. “The distinction is within the form not the concept.”
He mentioned a win by Nawrocki would put much more stress on fiscal stability as a result of the discount in taxes would doubtless be steeper than what Trzaskowski proposes.
Shoppers stroll by a shopping mall in Warsaw, the capital of Poland, July 4, 2024. (Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto by way of Getty Photos / Getty Photos)
Both promise of decrease taxes could be a dream given its big spending over the past 4 years. Final yr, Poland’s protection spending hit 4.2% of GDP, the best proportion of any NATO member, and that spending partly led to an annual fiscal deficit of 6.6% of GDP final yr, up from 1.8% in 2021, in keeping with Buying and selling Economics. A lot of the spending has gone to the protection finances after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
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“The EU goes to do all it might to get Trzaskowski to win, however rising discontent and the detrimental influence of EU insurance policies just like the Inexperienced New Deal and the 2030 Agenda could give energy to the nationalist candidate,” Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis in Spain, advised FOX Enterprise Digital.